So Michael D IS running again!

Loafing Oaf

blanch152 wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_2011#Results


After Count 1, Davis was bottom with 48,657. This number was not sufficient to bring the second-from-bottom candidate - Dana on 51,220 - past the third-from-bottom candidate - Norris on 109,469, so the bottom two candidates were eliminated. 48,657 plus 51,220 made 99,877.

The Norris/Mitchell gap had no bearing because even if you had only eliminated Davis, Count 2 would have been the elimination of Dana, and Count 3 in that scenario would have been the exact same as Count 2 in real life.

This sort of stuff makes me

FrancieBrady

So which one of them is going to get down and dirty in the first full debate tomorrow?

My bets are on Casey...suspiciously like a stalking horse to me.

seamus

hotmail.com wrote: »

What do candidates need to get their expenses back?

It looks like most of the candidates will get below 10%. Casey at 1% is too much.

It's kind of complicated. At every count, there is a "quota". This is the number of votes you need to be declared elected.

Anyone who achieves a quarter of the quota, can have their election expenses reimbursed (up to a limit).

This applies at every count. So when you move onto count 2, there is a new quota (as some votes may not have a 2,3,4,5 preference). If a candidate meets 25% of this new quota after transfers, they get their expenses.

And so forth on every count until all the seats are filled. If any candidate is eliminated before they meet the expenses requirements, tough.

For a Presidential election this is easy - the quota is 50% of the valid ballot, +1

So any candidate who gets 12.5% of the vote or more at any count, will get their expenses.

Assuming Michael D wins on count 1, then you need 12.5% of the first preferences to get your expenses. Once all the seats are filled, there is no redistribution of surpluses, or additional counts.

So even if Michael D gets 99% of the vote, his 49% "surplus" is not redistributed. The count is declared, the election is finished.

hotmail.com

seamus wrote:

So any candidate who gets 12.5% of the vote or more at any count, will get their expenses.

So Freman, Duffy, Casey and Ni Riada are in real danger. Of course Sinn Fein will foot Ni Riada's bill so she's probably ok either way.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So which one of them is going to get down and dirty in the first full debate tomorrow?

To get dirty they'd need some dirt on Higgins. Polling shows that none of the dirt they've thrown so far has stuck.

seamus

hotmail.com wrote: »

So Freman, Duffy, Casey and Ni Riada are in real danger. Of course Sinn Fein will foot Ni Riada's bill so she's probably ok either way.

Their combined spending is capped at €1.3m.

Which is actually a hell of a lot of money. The biggest spender in 2011 was Mitchell, who spent €560k on his bid.

hotmail.com

seamus wrote:

Which is actually a hell of a lot of money. The biggest spender in 2011 was Mitchell, who spent €560k on his bid.

What an incredible waste of money. If any of the candidates had sense, they'd pull out now and cut your loses.

marieholmfan

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To get dirty they'd need some dirt on Higgins. Polling shows that none of the dirt they've thrown so far has stuck.

It has to be financial. That would hammer him. Say if he took bribes when setting up TG4 or something.

James Brown

marieholmfan wrote: »

It has to be financial. That would hammer him. Say if he took bribes when setting up TG4 or something.

They tried go after the office itself after they couldn't get him. I think that well is dry.

The likes of Casey are in it for PR. Poor aul' Gallagher might think he has a chance. He'll have some tantrum after.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is a civic duty to vote...

It is a civic duty to vote.

I really would be strongly against mandatory voting though, as that involves force.

But there is more than enough people around the world that have zero chance of showing how they feel in the form of a vote. I feel privileged that Ireland has it.

Larbre34

I'd love to know why Gallagher thinks he is head and shoulders above the rest of the field. There is nothing to distinguish him. If he is basing it on his relative position in 2011 then he is clearly naive about Michael Ds effectiveness and popularity as the incumbent.

blanch152

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'd love to know why Gallagher thinks he is head and shoulders above the rest of the field. There is nothing to distinguish him. If he is basing it on his relative position in 2011 then he is clearly naive about Michael Ds effectiveness and popularity as the incumbent.

The opinion polls have him head and shoulders above the rest of the field bar Higgins. I suppose that explains why he thinks he is head and shoulders above them.

Cork Boy 53

CatInABox wrote: »

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1050679745761996800

To me the surprise is that Gallagher is polling as high as he is.
I thought he would be doing well to get into double figures. if this poll is anywhere close to reality, then Michael D. should already be preparing his victory speech.

FrancieBrady

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

To me the surprise is that Gallagher is polling as high as he is.
I thought he would be doing well to get into double figures. if this poll is anywhere close to reality, then Michael D. should already be preparing his victory speech.

Two words explain why he is: Fianna Fail.

Penn

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

To me the surprise is that Gallagher is polling as high as he is.
I thought he would be doing well to get into double figures. if this poll is anywhere close to reality, then Michael D. should already be preparing his victory speech.

I think the only reason Gallagher is so far ahead in second place is because he was the first one out of the gate, so people who dislike MDH latched onto him first. Plus because he ran in the previous one, people think it's at least likely that he's the same as he was then and probably no new scandals going to come out about him, which means familiarity in a way, as opposed to not knowing what the others are going to be like.

I think with a good campaign Gallagher could get over 20% by the end, but I can't see anyone getting close to MDH and imagine it'll only take one count to get him over the quota. That said, MDH shouldn't write any victory speeches just yet. He should still fight a strong campaign and not rest on his laurels (or the polls) as that could be used against him.

CatInABox

seamus wrote: »

Their combined spending is capped at €1.3m.

Which is actually a hell of a lot of money. The biggest spender in 2011 was Mitchell, who spent €560k on his bid.

Mitchell was financed by FG though, not sure he put any of his own money in. An epic misstep on their part, I couldn't think of a more uninspiring individual.

FrancieBrady

CatInABox wrote: »

Mitchell was financed by FG though, not sure he put any of his own money in. An epic misstep on their part, I couldn't think of a more uninspiring individual.

Learnt their lesson and didn't even bother trying to or couldn't find an inspiring candidate this time.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Learnt their lesson and didn't even bother trying to or couldn't find an inspiring candidate this time.

Compared to the slow learners in Sinn Fein, it seems like they learned it quick enough.

seamus

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

To me the surprise is that Gallagher is polling as high as he is.
I thought he would be doing well to get into double figures. if this poll is anywhere close to reality, then Michael D. should already be preparing his victory speech.

That 14 per cent is the Irish conservative vote. The same people who'd vote to cut the dole by 50% and reopen the workhouses.

They don't like Michael D. because he represents the artsy/bleeding heart type and not the authoritarian strongman type.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Compared to the slow learners in Sinn Fein, it seems like they learned it quick enough.

No doubt in my mind (as said from the get go) that SF choose the wrong candidate, but to be frank, I would rather make a mistake than run scared.

Higgins only needs to remain upright, meanwhile the Dragons have raised brand awareness so everyone is a winner.

eastwest

CatInABox wrote: »

Mitchell was financed by FG though, not sure he put any of his own money in. An epic misstep on their part, I couldn't think of a more uninspiring individual.

Definitely a stupid move on their part, can only be explained by a groupthink mentality that couldn't see anything west of Lucian. Bizarre choice!

eastwest

What was Gallagher thinking with his choice of campaign launch venue?
http://www.realboyle.com/the-toon-team-sean-gallagher-campaign/

VinLieger

eastwest wrote: »

What was Gallagher thinking with his choice of campaign launch venue?
http://www.realboyle.com/the-toon-team-sean-gallagher-campaign/

Not one of them has a political thought in their entire bodies. Have they even hired professional political advisors to run the campaigns?

Looking at any of the decisions any of them have made and stupid things they have said i find it hard to believe any of them have.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No doubt in my mind (as said from the get go) that SF choose the wrong candidate, but to be frank, I would rather make a mistake than run scared.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Learnt their lesson and didn't even bother trying to or couldn't find an inspiring candidate this time.

You are praising them one minute for learning a lesson, and criticising them the next for running scared.

It is difficult to keep up with your changing posts.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

You are praising them one minute for learning a lesson, and criticising them the next for running scared.

It is difficult to keep up with your changing posts.

Stating that they learnt a lesson is not praise.

richiepurgas

eastwest wrote: »

What was Gallagher thinking with his choice of campaign launch venue?
http://www.realboyle.com/the-toon-team-sean-gallagher-campaign/

I saw a video yesterday of Gallagher talking about "Dublin to Dubai" etc., to say it was awful is being kind.

TCM

richiepurgas wrote:

I saw a video yesterday of Gallagher talking about "Dublin to Dubai" etc., to say it was awful is being kind.

He'd do a good Colgate Advert.

FrancieBrady

richiepurgas wrote: »

I saw a video yesterday of Gallagher talking about "Dublin to Dubai" etc., to say it was awful is being kind.

I can only think it was an attempt to get down with the young vote and it was truly awful. It was like a parody video.

James Brown

Seriously imagine the number of face palms required to see you through Gallagher's tenure as President?