So Michael D IS running again!

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No doubt in my mind (as said from the get go) that SF choose the wrong candidate, but to be frank, I would rather make a mistake than run scared.

The thing is though, Mitchell was voted for by party membership, whereas Ni Riada was presumably the choice of the much-vaunted SF party machine. So Mary Lou will have some explaining to do if Liadh straggles in fourth or fifth...

Hotblack Desiato

seamus wrote: »

It's kind of complicated. At every count, there is a "quota".

In a GE anyway, the quota doesn't change, it's set when the valid poll is established. This is how it's possible to be elected without reaching the quota.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

The thing is though, Mitchell was voted for by party membership, whereas Ni Riada was presumably the choice of the much-vaunted SF party machine. So Mary Lou will have some explaining to do if Liadh straggles in fourth or fifth...

O'Riada only officially launched her campaign today so the party machine is only getting going.
Her problem is poor voter recognition and I wouldn't think there is enough time to overcome this.
If she finishes around 10% I would say SF will be happy enough.

Hotblack Desiato

That's a pretty lame excuse tbh. SF were very quick to get the posters up so to say the party machine is only getting going is, well, lame.

P_1

We're not sheep, we don't need posters telling us how to vote. Why do politicians insist on using them

FrancieBrady

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

That's a pretty lame excuse tbh. SF were very quick to get the posters up so to say the party machine is only getting going is, well, lame.

It's not an excuse, as I don't have to excuse them.

SF do a lot of campaigning online so I reckon you'll see that going into full gear after today.

LuckyLloyd

Ni Riada with a good interview on six one, spoke well and came across as directly addressing the questions asked.

blackwhite

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Seriously imagine the number of face palms required to see you through Gallagher's tenure as President?

Based on the last 7 years I’d expect him to disappear happily squirrelling away the salary.

Until about 6 months from the end of term when he’d suddenly develop a gra for the duties of the role, and suddenly reappear into the public eye just in time for a re-election campaign.

eastwest

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Ni Riada with a good interview on six one, spoke well and came across as directly addressing the questions asked.

Apart from a snide comment about 'if they all turn up' with regards to Monday's debate.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

O'Riada only officially launched her campaign today so the party machine is only getting going.
Her problem is poor voter recognition and I wouldn't think there is enough time to overcome this.

Doesn't this problem largely stem from her being a modest, self-effacing person without a great deal to say for herself, i.e. exactly the wrong sort of person to be running for president, particularly against a very popular incumbent. I do agree that having a large party machine behind her might just drag her into third place, which would see Mary Lou clear of the whole episode without significant damage.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Doesn't this problem largely stem from her being a modest, self-effacing person without a great deal to say for herself, i.e. exactly the wrong sort of person to be running for president, particularly against a very popular incumbent. I do agree that having a large party machine behind her might just drag her into third place, which would see Mary Lou clear of the whole episode without significant damage.

Don't know a whole pile about her personality tbh, had to look her up online and what she has done. It could be this is a tester run for the next one.

James Brown

blackwhite wrote: »

Based on the last 7 years I’d expect him to disappear happily squirrelling away the salary.

Until about 6 months from the end of term when he’d suddenly develop a gra for the duties of the role, and suddenly reappear into the public eye just in time for a re-election campaign.

To be honest, if he were to win I'd prefer he kept his head down.

eastwest

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Doesn't this problem largely stem from her being a modest, self-effacing person without a great deal to say for herself, i.e. exactly the wrong sort of person to be running for president, particularly against a very popular incumbent. I do agree that having a large party machine behind her might just drag her into third place, which would see Mary Lou clear of the whole episode without significant damage.

This is Mary lou's first real test as leader. If she can't get her candudate as far as Martin mcguinnes did last time, it will be seen as a failure both inside and outside sf.

FrancieBrady

eastwest wrote: »

This is Mary lou's first real test as leader. If she can't get her candudate as far as Martin mcguinnes did last time, it will be seen as a failure both inside and outside sf.

It was Leo's too and he didn't even show up for the test.

James Brown

eastwest wrote: »

This is Mary lou's first real test as leader. If she can't get her candudate as far as Martin mcguinnes did last time, it will be seen as a failure both inside and outside sf.

I think it's a marketing ploy. If she's in among the average also rans they'll be happy enough. I doubt they expected her to come close to Higgins.

For Forks Sake

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think it's a marketing ploy. If she's in among the average also rans they'll be happy enough. I doubt they expected her to come close to Higgins.

If it's a marketing ploy then how come there's no SF branding on the posters (the colour scheme of which they appear to have swiped from the SocDems)?

James Brown

For Forks Sake wrote: »

If it's a marketing ploy then how come there's no SF branding on the posters (the colour scheme of which they appear to have swiped from the SocDems)?

I doubt she has no support from SF. I doubt she thinks she's going to win. Just putting a conclusion together based on that.
It's unlikely even any SF (or not) supporters will be terrible upset if she comes in on the lower side, as suggested. Hardly a test for May Lou.

eastwest

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think it's a marketing ploy. If she's in among the average also rans they'll be happy enough. I doubt they expected her to come close to Higgins.

She was never going to threaten Higgins, but she would be expected to top mcguinness' performance. Anything else is bad for Mary Lou.

FrancieBrady

eastwest wrote: »

She was never going to threaten Higgins, but she would be expected to top mcguinness' performance. Anything else is bad for Mary Lou.

McGuinness was probably the most high profile person SF had bar Adams himself.

I doubt she was expected to top his performance, have you a link to that?

eastwest

FrancieBrady wrote: »

McGuinness was probably the most high profile person SF had bar Adams himself.

I doubt she was expected to top his performance, have you a link to that?

They regularly trumpeted mcguinness' performance as a benchmark of their popularity. In addition, they have been polling in the high teens in most polls, so they will have expected her to top the 20% at least.
They won't be happy with the way it's going.

FrancieBrady

eastwest wrote: »

They regularly trumpeted mcguinness' performance as a benchmark of their popularity. In addition, they have been polling in the high teens in most polls, so they will have expected her to top the 20% at least.
They won't be happy with the way it's going.

They expect somebody to emulate and exceed McGuinness's vote but pick somebody who is barely known to contest???
Might make sense to you but it makes no sense to me.

Much more likely to be dry run for the next race in 7 years time where it will be a level playing field with no incumbent to beat. (based on current polling)

Water John

SF would have seen it as an open space to slot into, without FG and FF canvassing. Politically made good sense. They should be disappointed if they weren't able to capture some of that space.

eastwest

FrancieBrady wrote: »

McGuinness was probably the most high profile person SF had bar Adams himself.

I doubt she was expected to top his performance, have you a link to that?

McGuinness wasn't a politician in this state, and had a fair stink of ira off him, but he still topped 20%. An Irish MEP (albeit one with very little impact in europe) would be expected to at least hit their normal party percentage. There will be a lot of recrimitations in the aftermath.

blanch152

Water John wrote: »

SF would have seen it as an open space to slot into, without FG and FF canvassing. Politically made good sense. They should be disappointed if they weren't able to capture some of that space.

No FF candidate, no FG candidate, not even a Social Democrat or a Green.

SF should be able to get to 25% plus in a clear second place. I think that was the original premise, but they didn't think that Higgins would be so far ahead or that the race would get so crowded.

Anything less than McGuinness vote is a failure.

FrancieBrady

eastwest wrote: »

McGuinness wasn't a politician in this state, and had a fair stink of ira off him, but he still topped 20%. An Irish MEP (albeit one with very little impact in europe) would be expected to at least hit their normal party percentage. There will be a lot of recrimitations in the aftermath.

McGuinness wasn't up against an incumbent polling at 70% though.
You still haven't explained credibly if they were so desperate to emulate McGuinness why they would have chosen one of their least known members.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

McGuinness wasn't up against an incumbent polling at 70% though.
You still haven't explained credibly if they were so desperate to emulate McGuinness why they would have chosen one of their least known members.

That is exactly why they chose one of their least known members. Here are 10 reasons why they thought she could beat McGuinness.


(1) No IRA connection
(2) No link with old Sinn Fein
(3) No IRA connection
(4) Comes from a respectable Irish family
(5) No IRA connection
(6) Pleasant looking candidate
(7) No IRA connection
(8) Successful candidate in popularity contest of Euro elections
(9) No IRA connection
(10) Not from Belfast

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

That is exactly why they chose one of their least known members. Here are 10 reasons why they thought she could beat McGuinness.


(1) No IRA connection
(2) No link with old Sinn Fein
(3) No IRA connection
(4) Comes from a respectable Irish family
(5) No IRA connection
(6) Pleasant looking candidate
(7) No IRA connection
(8) Successful candidate in popularity contest of Euro elections
(9) No IRA connection
(10) Not from Belfast

The IRA are gone 20 years now, and the conflict is over as long. Plenty in SF with a higher profile would fit the same criteria you say (without back up I notice) they used.

I think the signs are that they picked her because she will run again the next time. I think she would be much more suitable then.
Any party who had done their homework would have known Higgins was unassailable. And we know how other parties approached that knowledge.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The IRA are gone 20 years now, and the conflict is over as long. Plenty in SF with a higher profile would fit the same criteria you say (without back up I notice) they used.

I think the signs are that they picked her because she will run again the next time. I think she would be much more suitable then.
Any party who had done their homework would have known Higgins was unassailable. And we know how other parties approached that knowledge.

Well, as neither of us are Sinn Fein members, let alone members of the Ard Comhairle, we can hardly be definitive, so our opinions are all we have, and they can be different.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Well, as neither of us are Sinn Fein members, let alone members of the Ard Comhairle, we can hardly be definitive, so our opinions are all we have, and they can be different.

Then why pick a relative unknown using that criteria you posted when there are many more who fit the criteria, with a higher profile? Doesn't make any sense from a party which is fairly astute at these kind of things.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No doubt in my mind (as said from the get go) that SF choose the wrong candidate, but to be frank, I would rather make a mistake than run scared.

YOU would rather?

I thought neither yourself nor happyman were affiliated with SF?