US Presidential Election 2020

everlast75

Rjd2 wrote: »

The issue some on the Trump right have with the judges yes they are conservative, but they feel they are more lefty on social issues than economic where they nearly always side with big business.

Mitch doesn't give a **** about gay marriage, abortion instead he wants to keep the wealthy donors happy by appointing judges who vote with them.

Their has been rulings recently where their has been grumblings about these judges, so if Pence was shunted for someone like Hailey,,,**** would hit the fan.

They wouldn't become dem's overnight, but turnout would be depressed enough to ensure a landslide for Biden.

Trump needs to pander to the social conservatives, because its to late and he is not clever enough to woo many other bases.

So, if dumping Pence would **** things up royally for Trump, I'm off down to Paddy Power to bet on him doing it.

The manner in which he is destroying his own re-election prospects is quite something to behold. It seems almost wilful

Quin_Dub

everlast75 wrote: »

So, if dumping Pence would **** things up royally for Trump, I'm off down to Paddy Power to bet on him doing it.

The manner in which he is destroying his own re-election prospects is quite something to behold. It seems almost wilful

Bill Kristol was reckoning the other day that the reason he cancelled his alleged "throwing of the 1st pitch for the yankees" was that he was going to be announcing his new VP pick that day.

Kristol's thinking was that it was a few days before the Democrat Convention where Biden is going to be announcing his pick so this was Trumps way of stealing the media spotlight away from Biden as Trump ditching Pence would be probably bigger news than whoever Biden announces.

Whilst I get that Trump is obsessed with ratings and firmly believes that he needs to "own" the media schedule I'm not sure that even he would dump Pence at this stage.

As others have said , Pence is a key tie to the evangelicals who along with Non college educated White men are only demographic group where Trump holds a lead over Biden, so ditching him would a a huge call.

Even if picking a Nikki Haley might (and it's a huge might) win him a few more moderate GOP/Independent voters it would likely be more than offset by the loss of likely voters from the evangelicals.

Changing VP is not what might help Trump win - A viable vaccine or a massive upswing in the Economy before the Election are his only legitimate hopes at this point.

He's still got voter suppression and a hat full of lawsuits if it's a close result in a few GOP controlled states (I'm looking at you Florida & Georgia) but they are not legitimate paths to victory.

ELM327

Pence is a very important part in Trump's arsenal
Combined with the SCOTUS appointments, it ensures the evangelical vote. He will not be dumping pence. If he does he may as well concede now. Evangelicals are a key component of his voter base.

These people seeing the madness of the burning looting mobs may be more energized to vote this time than last.

RBG is about to kick the bucket surely, so there's another seat coming very soon.

everlast75

ELM327 wrote: »

Pence is a very important part in Trump's arsenal
Combined with the SCOTUS appointments, it ensures the evangelical vote. He will not be dumping pence. If he does he may as well concede now. Evangelicals are a key component of his voter base.

Perhaps

ELM327 wrote: »

These people seeing the madness of the burning looting mobs may be more energized to vote this time than last.

Some people see the police brutality, along with the federal enforcement agencies combined with Trump stoking racial tensions and seem quite energised too.

ELM327 wrote: »

RBG is about to kick the bucket surely, so there's another seat coming very soon.

A shocking lack of respect and unnecessarily crude. Ghoulish in fact.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Pence is a very important part in Trump's arsenal
Combined with the SCOTUS appointments, it ensures the evangelical vote. He will not be dumping pence. If he does he may as well concede now. Evangelicals are a key component of his voter base.

These people seeing the madness of the burning looting mobs may be more energized to vote this time than last.

RBG is about to kick the bucket surely, so there's another seat coming very soon.

I feel you'll be praising Trump for his sense if he suddenly decided to drop Pence. He's also started to lose evangelicals. Wonder if tear gassing his way to a church factored in..

ELM327

everlast75 wrote: »

Perhaps

Some people see the police brutality, along with the federal enforcement agencies combined with Trump stoking racial tensions and seem quite energised too.

A shocking lack of respect and unnecessarily crude. Ghoulish in fact.

Alleged police brutality does not excuse burning and looting mobs.


RBG is a good example of why they need to introduce term limits to SCOTUS judges.

Deleted User wrote: »

I feel you'll be praising Trump for his sense if he suddenly decided to drop Pence. He's also started to lose evangelicals. Wonder if tear gassing his way to a church factored in..

No, I would not.
Mark my words. If trump drops pence he will lose the election.
The only, only potential caveat to that is if he appoints a black female evangelical.

Carfacemandog

ELM327 wrote: »

Pence is a very important part in Trump's arsenal
Combined with the SCOTUS appointments, it ensures the evangelical vote. He will not be dumping pence. If he does he may as well concede now. Evangelicals are a key component of his voter base.

These people seeing the madness of the burning looting mobs may be more energized to vote this time than last.

RBG is about to kick the bucket surely, so there's another seat coming very soon.

Evangelicals will vote for Trump with or without Pence for the same reasons they were his single strongest base in 2016, and it has nothing go do with protests nor religion.

everlast75

ELM327 wrote: »

Alleged police brutality does not excuse burning and looting mobs.

Alleged? Really? Really????

And perhaps it does not excuse it, but having a black people murdered, some even on camera and there being a cover up and reluctance to hold those into account, tends to make people angry and irrational.

ELM327 wrote: »

RBG is a good example of why they need to introduce term limits to SCOTUS judges.

1) even if she is too old to be a judge, it doesn't excuse what you said earlier
2) why did you focus in on her?

ELM327 wrote: »

If trump drops pence he will lose the election.
The only, only potential caveat to that is if he appoints a black female evangelical.

I note you accept that Trump's evangelical base are racist.

Tell me how

ELM327 wrote: »

Alleged police brutality does not excuse burning and looting mobs.

At this point, I expect the proportion of police forces with instances of police brutality is greater than the proportion of protests with burning and looting mobs.

There are still protests every weekend in my city, with zero trouble at them.

Igotadose

ELM327 wrote: »

RBG is a good example of why they need to introduce term limits to SCOTUS judges.

Spit my coffee moment there. Incompetents like Clarence Thomas are a reason for term limits on the SCOTUS. He's not 1/10th the justice Ginsburg is. Bad decisions, asks no questions in Court, just an all-around bad judge.


Really, Elm, with your pro-choice position you should want more justices like RBG. Imagine another Kavanaugh in her place. Or worse, another Clarence Thomas.

Faugheen

RBG is a walking advertisement for no term limits. She’s phenomenal.

Water John

Watching JB doing Q & A and he's quite impressive. Much moreso than when he was delivering his speech.

Itssoeasy

I'm listening to joe Biden on CNN take questions and the difference is stark between him and trump in just ability to form sentences and form a coherent thought.

Penn

Just a shame Biden's Q&A was on at the same time as Barr's hearing. All of the focus should be on that, and he got rightfully destroyed by some of the Dems, Jayapal in particular.

Water John

He says he thinks the Dems will take the Senate.

Itssoeasy

Penn wrote: »

Just a shame Biden's Q&A was on at the same time as Barr's hearing. All of the focus should be on that, and he got rightfully destroyed by some of the Dems, Jayapal in particular.

Oh yeah that hearing was today. Jayapal ? That name doesn't ring a bell with me but from your post he went in hard on AG Barr.

Itssoeasy

I'm not watching I'm listening but it comes across that Biden knows how the government works.

Itssoeasy

I mean he was asked what sets him apart from trump and he answered it very well and it sounded like knew what he was on about.

Muahahaha

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Bill Kristol was reckoning the other day that the reason he cancelled his alleged "throwing of the 1st pitch for the yankees" was that he was going to be announcing his new VP pick that day.

Kristol's thinking was that it was a few days before the Democrat Convention where Biden is going to be announcing his pick so this was Trumps way of stealing the media spotlight away from Biden as Trump ditching Pence would be probably bigger news than whoever Biden announces.
.

Has Biden said lately that he is going to hold off on the VP pick till Aug 15th? All the media saying he committed to August 1st which is this coming Saturday. He might delay it until the convention on the 15th but I havent heard him say he is.

Water John

He said it would be the first week of August. Not sure whether that meant finalising or announcing.
Reporter was wondering would he meet the candidates in person. JB was laughing saying, with you all watching my house?

Itssoeasy

Muahahaha wrote: »

Has Biden said lately that he is going to hold off on the VP pick till Aug 15th? All the media saying he committed to August 1st which is this coming Saturday. He might delay it until the convention on the 15th but I havent heard him say he is.

CNN were saying the Biden campaign still expects it be early August.

Penn

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Oh yeah that hearing was today. Jayapal ? That name doesn't ring a bell with me but from your post he went in hard on AG Barr.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1288204827969953793?s=19

Headshot

I've only seen parts of Barr's testifying before the house Judiciary but in those parts he was destroyed. It was great to see him squirm and getting what he deserves

Carfacemandog

Headshot wrote: »

I've only seen parts of Barr's testifying before the house Judiciary but in those parts he was destroyed. It was great to see him squirm and getting what he deserves

What was his sentence?

Overheal

Water John wrote: »

He says he thinks the Dems will take the Senate.

Not surprising because there are more at-risk Republican seats than Democrat seats by a good margin. But, anything could happen.

Water John

He was making the point, that he wouldn't neglect any state in his campaign as a help to the others down the ticket.

paul71

Curiosity here. While not being enamoured of antifa, my attitude to them could be described as ambivalent.

At what stage in American history did being anti facist become viewed as extreme left wing?

TomOnBoard

paul71 wrote: »

Curiosity here. While not being enamoured of antifa, my attitude to them could be described as ambivalent.

At what stage in American history did being anti facist become viewed as extreme left wing?

Good question.

While anti-fascism has existed for decades, the 'antifa' umbrella is being largely linked these days to a 'movement' comprising individuals and autonomous groups whose umbrella philosophy involves militant opposition to white supremacist, nazi, neo-nazi, far- and ultra- right organisations and their apparently tolerated militancy. The Anti-Racist Action network of the 1980s was influenced by the punk 'movement's' standing up to white power skinhead and neo Nazi groups at music festivals and gigs in Midwest USA. It was fairly dormant by the new millennium and morphed into Antifa with the resurgence of neo-Nazi and nationalist movements around the world up to the early-mid part of this decade. In the US, Trump's outright nationalism electioneering and his election as POTUS identified Federal Government as a target of an increasingly militant US Antifa presence particularly the north/western quarter of the country.

So, the answer to your question may be that, as the US Federal Govt moved further into policies and actions that appear increasingly hard-line and tending to totalitarianism/fascism from the Right who hold power, the Left-leaning opposition adopts a more overt antipathy to fascism. The range of extreme groups on the Right could be collectively seen as 'Profa', leading to 'Antifa' being seen as extreme Left. Of course, these are labels designed to coalesce division and polarize opposites, trying to split the non-aligned middle. Recent Federal intervention in Seattle and Portland are designed to divide, and allow Trump to trot out 'law and order' rhetoric to deflect attention away from the economy and Covid and stoke fear in white voters. The language being used by Barr and others, characterizing protesters en masse as looters and terrorists is part of the same deflection and division effort. In a way, the Democrats, as the party of the US Left (such as it is) are being boxed in by GoP messaging, as Democrat intolerance of recent Federal Govt extreme actions drifts into Antifa territory in ideological terms, making it easier for the GoP to paint the Dems as Antifa bedfellows.

The Antifa violence is fuelled by anarchists (of both extremes) and is not helping at all. The attempts by both extremes to 'burn it all down' simply gives increased cover for increasingly violent responses from the Government in the name of 'Law and Order'.

paul71

Ok, so essentially Anti Facism, which to my mind is a mainstream view that should be aspired to by everyone has been appropriated by anarchists, hence the justification for calling them extreme.

Do they aspire to the same goals as Anarchists of the Ukraine in 1920s and Spain of the 1930s (seems unrealistic) or simply a protest movement.

Quin_Dub

The whole focus on "AntiFa" in the US is that the Right needed a counter-weight to the right-wing terror groups - The White Supremacists , the Three Percenters etc.

AntiFa was kind of the only "name brand" left wing activist group around so they have latched on to it and now any and all protests/protesters about the current Administration are labelled AntiFa to try and impute a level of organisation and cohesion among the various protests that largely does not exist.

Even actual Antifa does not have a leadership structure , it's a loosely bound collective with similar ideals who, unlike the Ring-wing terror groups in the US have not been responsible for any deaths thus far.

I don't condone violence and looting in any way , but the attempts by Trump and his cronies to try and label it all as "Left-wing terrorism" is pathetic.

StringerBell

Overheal wrote: »

Not surprising because there are more at-risk Republican seats than Democrat seats by a good margin. But, anything could happen.

They need 4 seats, its a tall enough ask tbh. I think we can assume Jones is gonna lose his in Alabama like so they will need to flip 4 seats, the Senate is a reach I think but not out of the question given how Trump is bleeding support and Senators are distancing themselves from him but should be still too tainted by him.

Quin_Dub

StringerBell wrote: »

They need 4 seats, its a tall enough ask tbh. I think we can assume Jones is gonna lose his in Alabama like so they will need to flip 4 seats, the Senate is a reach I think but not out of the question given how Trump is bleeding support and Senators are distancing themselves from him but should be still too tainted by him.

Jones is the only Democrat seat that is at any risk , there are multiple GOP seats in serious trouble right now.

Cory Gardner is down by 13 points in Colorado
Martha McSally is down by 8 points in Arizona
Thom Tillis down by 5 points in North Carolina
Susan Collins is down by 4 points in Maine
Steve Daines is down by 2 in Montana
Joni Ernst is down by 1 in Iowa

The Senate is most definitely there for the taking for the Democrats.

I think they have a clear path to the 4 they need and could take 6 .

Kelly Loeffler could come under pressure when the Dem candidate gets selected and starts campaigning particularly if Biden continues to poll strongly in Georgia.

Even Lindsey Graham is starting to feel the heat in South Carolina , his opponent has out raised him for the last few months by a wide margin and is closing the polling gap rapidly - I think Graham will hold on , but that race will deflect RNC funding away from other at risk states helping the Democrats elsewhere.

Brian?

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Jones is the only Democrat seat that is at any risk , there are multiple GOP seats in serious trouble right now.

Cory Gardner is down by 13 points in Colorado
Martha McSally is down by 8 points in Arizona
Thom Tillis down by 5 points in North Carolina
Susan Collins is down by 4 points in Maine
Steve Daines is down by 2 in Montana
Joni Ernst is down by 1 in Iowa

The Senate is most definitely there for the taking for the Democrats.

I think they have a clear path to the 4 they need and could take 6 .

Kelly Loeffler could come under pressure when the Dem candidate gets selected and starts campaigning particularly if Biden continues to poll strongly in Georgia.

Even Lindsey Graham is starting to feel the heat in South Carolina , his opponent has out raised him for the last few months by a wide margin and is closing the polling gap rapidly - I think Graham will hold on , but that race will deflect RNC funding away from other at risk states helping the Democrats elsewhere.

It would be great to see Lindsey Graham lose, but it looks unlikely. For a while he was the reasonable face of the GOP, anti Trump, but those days are long gone.

pixelburp

As the above, the Americans don't do complex and Antifa were and remain a convenient umbrella group to hate - especially if we're talking of the country's resting hostility towards anything vaguely left of centre. And of course, because we love importing America's cultural insecurities, you got people here hating on "Antifa" because they think "the left" are destroying civilisation.

rossie1977

Antifa are right up there with groups like the Proud Boys..completely irrelevant

As you said Trump and the far right needed an enemy and they were picked.

Gbear

Brian? wrote: »

It would be great to see Lindsey Graham lose, but it looks unlikely. For a while he was the reasonable face of the GOP, anti Trump, but those days are long gone.

I really can't believe that the blackmail they have on him is that he's gay.


He probably is gay, but it would surely have to be a lot more damaging than that.

Quin_Dub

Gbear wrote: »

I really can't believe that the blackmail they have on him is that he's gay.


He probably is gay, but it would surely have to be a lot more damaging than that.

Sadly , in South Carolina in the GOP that's more than enough - even in 2020.

It shouldn't matter one bit , but in his State a very large part of the GOP vote would be strict evangelical Christians who would be happy to operate under a "Don't Ask,Don't Tell" approach as long as he was getting the job done for them.

However , something like that becoming verifiable public fact would mean that they could no longer support him.

StringerBell

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Jones is the only Democrat seat that is at any risk , there are multiple GOP seats in serious trouble right now.

Cory Gardner is down by 13 points in Colorado
Martha McSally is down by 8 points in Arizona
Thom Tillis down by 5 points in North Carolina
Susan Collins is down by 4 points in Maine
Steve Daines is down by 2 in Montana
Joni Ernst is down by 1 in Iowa

The Senate is most definitely there for the taking for the Democrats.

I think they have a clear path to the 4 they need and could take 6 .

Kelly Loeffler could come under pressure when the Dem candidate gets selected and starts campaigning particularly if Biden continues to poll strongly in Georgia.

Even Lindsey Graham is starting to feel the heat in South Carolina , his opponent has out raised him for the last few months by a wide margin and is closing the polling gap rapidly - I think Graham will hold on , but that race will deflect RNC funding away from other at risk states helping the Democrats elsewhere.

I don't disagree that the GOP is on the defence in the senate but I still think it's going to be a tall ask. Especially as it is likely that a lot of republican voters who may vote Biden or not vote at all in the presidential race will vote down the ticket to make sure they hold the senate.

I think the democrats will flip 3 seats net right now. Hopefully can push it to the 4 come election Day

I'm hopeful on Georgia also but remains to be seen just yet

Brian?

Gbear wrote: »

I really can't believe that the blackmail they have on him is that he's gay.


He probably is gay, but it would surely have to be a lot more damaging than that.

He probably is, and it shouldn't really matter a damn. But in SC it would be the end of him

Water John

Flipping the Senate is highly possible but you also have the higher bar of 60 votes needed. Perhaps someone could enlighten me as to what type of legislation requires the 60 votes? Biden has a fair record in reaching across the floor, but it still dilutes and you have a lot of pork barrell politics. Maybe nothing compared to a new FBI building in the present Covid Bill.

Carfacemandog

Water John wrote: »

Flipping the Senate is highly possible but you also have the higher bar of 60 votes needed. Perhaps someone could enlighten me as to what type of legislation requires the 60 votes? Biden has a fair record in reaching across the floor, but it still dilutes and you have a lot of pork barrell politics. Maybe nothing compared to a new FBI building in the present Covid Bill.

By 60 votes I am guessing you mean to avoid filibstsrs? If they have any sense the democrats will do exactly as mitch has and rub the 'nuckear' option in literally every bit of legislation they want to put through without even stopping for a single moment to take any Republican objection on board.

If they happen to get the White House, senate and House then the democrats need to steamroll whatever the f*** they want through and tell republicans opposed to it 'tough sh*t', and would also want to be passing laws non stop on top of this.

If they don't fight fire with fire, they and American democracy will get burned to death - we'll see in November whether we've crossed that threshold already.

Quin_Dub

Carfacemandog wrote: »

By 60 votes I am guessing you mean to avoid filibstsrs? If they have any sense the democrats will do exactly as mitch has and rub the 'nuckear' option in literally every bit of legislation they want to put through without even stopping for a single moment to take any Republican objection on board.

If they happen to get the White House, senate and House then the democrats need to steamroll whatever the f*** they want through and tell republicans opposed to it 'tough sh*t', and would also want to be passing laws non stop on top of this.

If they don't fight fire with fire, they and American democracy will get burned to death - we'll see in November whether we've crossed that threshold already.

Indeed , they can blow up the Filibuster and then add 4 more Democrat Senators by giving statehood to DC and Puerto Rico.

Melanchthon

pixelburp wrote: »

And of course, because we love importing America's cultural insecurities, you got people here hating on "Antifa" because they think "the left" are destroying civilisation.

That's just a-historic bullsh-t! Antifa has been a thing in the UK and Ireland for ages before we were watching kids in Portland knock the heads of each other on YouTube. You think the people getting into rows in the early 2000's in Dublin at stuff like Reclaim the streets didn't know who Antifa were, think there hasn't been Black Block/Anarchist crust punks in Ireland before Trump came along.

What people mean by Antifa was originally a mainland European thing (German I think), it's pointless equating it with antifascism in general. You can see Russian tanks in the Ukraine with anti-fascist slogans on them because they consider themselves fighting Fascism (and because PR), do the Russian little green men sent into a country by Putin have anything in common with a hipster in Berlin London or Portland.

L1011

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Indeed , they can blow up the Filibuster and then add 4 more Democrat Senators by giving statehood to DC and Puerto Rico.

Splitting California in to 3 would also give 4 more Democrat senators and has been floated a few times however I've never seen polling on whether the actual residents want it

Water John

Susan Rice confirms she's on the VP shortlist:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jul/29/coronavirus-us-portland-protesters-trump-news-latest-updates

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

Susan Rice confirms she's on the VP shortlist:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jul/29/coronavirus-us-portland-protesters-trump-news-latest-updates

Well that just confirms what's been hinted at for a while including by your good self WJ in a post earlier in the week. The handwritten note that was picked up by cameras with kamala Harris written on it is very interesting. I'd pick Susan rice of the two.

pixelburp

Water John wrote: »

Susan Rice confirms she's on the VP shortlist:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jul/29/coronavirus-us-portland-protesters-trump-news-latest-updates

Never run for public office, and having blabbed about being on the shortlist, perhaps has already shown that lack of media savvy. Not to mention perhaps shunted herself down the pecking order.

Itssoeasy

pixelburp wrote: »

Never run for public office, and having blabbed about being on the shortlist, perhaps has already shown that lack of media savvy. Not to mention perhaps shunted herself down the pecking order.

Well yeah there is that of having never run for public office but neither has trump so it's not unique. She's just confirmed the rumours that were already around for months. With the announcement expected next week at this stage confirmed you're on the list will hardly matter given the leg work is done. I'd forgotten about her role in the Benghazi matter but given that Jim Jordan and the other lad trey something spent months and didn't come up with anything I think she's okay on that.

L1011

L1011 wrote: »

Splitting California in to 3 would also give 4 more Democrat senators and has been floated a few times however I've never seen polling on whether the actual residents want it

Would depend on how it was split. Could end up with 5-1 to the Dems with one of the 5 being swing-ish so would only be a net gain of 1-2 for the Dems.

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

Would depend on how it was split. Could end up with 5-1 to the Dems with one of the 5 being swing-ish so would only be a net gain of 1-2 for the Dems.

The way the Senate elections work you would end up with 4 and 2 Rep/Swing or all 6; not 5 and one swing. Anyway, you gerrymander the bollox out of the split, both sides do it for house districts already.