US Presidential Election 2020

mcmoustache

MadYaker wrote: »

I'm hoping for a revival of the GOP after Trump, they need a strong centre right candidate, someone young with no baggage and who doesn't lie and engage with racism and conspiracy theories. They're like those addicts that need to hit rock bottom before the rebuilding can begin, this is rock bottom I hope. It would make america better.

I'm pretty sure that this is what the Lincoln Project are up to. They know that this personality cult that the GOP have going on isn't a recipe for longevity. The longer Trump remains POTUS, the more the party loses whatever principles it had and the worse they'll fare once his time is up.


Getting rid of Trump now gives the GOP a chance to recover.


A few posters here have pointed out that the Lincoln Project have their own agenda and I think that this is it. Not that they're terribly secretive about it.

Water John

KH nails Trump before his acceptance speech this evening:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1299071934769102853

Brian?

The RNC is a complete **** show and the fivethirtyeight model shows the race tightening.

jamule

Brian? wrote: »

The RNC is a complete **** show and the fivethirtyeight model shows the race tightening.

9.6 was the high in july, down to 7.5 about 3 weeks ago, creeping up since to 8.4

BonnieSituation

Brian? wrote: »

The RNC is a complete **** show and the fivethirtyeight model shows the race tightening.

They're weirdly getting a convention bump.

Here's to a shítshow of a speech tonight.

spacecoyote

I'm pretty sure that the 538 guys basically said that there almost always is a convention bump so no matter how crazy it seems to us, it's not out of the ordinary

Overheal

What's crazy is despite it all, this will be yet another tight election. It always beggars belief.

Water John

If it was based on the vote of everyone being equal, there would be no contest.

Brian?

spacecoyote wrote: »

I'm pretty sure that the 538 guys basically said that there almost always is a convention bump so no matter how crazy it seems to us, it's not out of the ordinary

I was naively expecting something different.

StringerBell

The election will be close and the polls will be close come voting time. It was always going to be the way, the set up lends itself to that, it's the reason the GOP have won the popular vote I think once in the last 28 years but have managed to win the presidency more than once.

hotmail.com

Overheal wrote: »

What's crazy is despite it all, this will be yet another tight election. It always beggars belief.

40 odd per cent vote Republican and the same for Democrat. No matter what. The same in most countries.

Every 8 years the swing voters switch sides.

American politics isn't that complicated.

And 2016 didn't represent a change in anything.

BonnieSituation

hotmail.com wrote: »

40 odd per cent vote Republican and the same for Democrat. No matter what. The same in most countries.

Every 8 years the swing voters switch sides.

American politics isn't that complicated.

And 2016 didn't represent a change in anything.

It's so simple alright.

droidus

I don't see any bounce, there's been some weird polls - that crazy CBS one, the Trafalgar one that was pretty much discounted, and rasmussen who always lean Republican, but things have stayed fairly stable on average.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

TBH, Nate Silver seems to have gone even more off the deep end in recent months and the 538 model seems screwy this time round. Thats not to say that things wont tighten, but there's only about 7% undecideds left out there.

The Nal

GOP convention looks a thousand times more presidential than the Dems. Night and day,

pixelburp

Superficial looks might impress, the words spoken by the various GOP speakers were vitriolic & hysterical portents of actual apocalypse. That's not so impressive. Words matter, doubly so in politics and there was nothing to be impressed about during that GOP conference.

Tell me how

Do you know what doesn't look Presidential...........the guy in the white house.

Where, interestingly, he held his convention speech showing once again the lack of respect he has for it.

Think that came across very well.

The Nal

Tell me how wrote: »

Do you know what doesn't look Presidential...........the guy in the white house.

Where, interestingly, he held his convention speech showing once again the lack of respect he has for it.

Think that came across very well.

His disrespect for the office came across very well to reasonable people with sense but thats not who they are targeting.

pixelburp wrote: »

Superficial looks might impress, the words spoken by the various GOP speakers were vitriolic & hysterical portents of actual apocalypse. That's not so impressive. Words matter, doubly so in politics and there was nothing to be impressed about during that GOP conference.

Again, this is something that baffles me. As above, they're targeting hysterical people who are easily manipulated by this sort of vitriolic rubbish. Influenced by post truth. It was the same in 2016. The Democrats just can't seem to comprehend this. They're playing a little nastier this time out but still on the "we go high" message.

I'd worry about Bidens chances even more now after this week. The inability of people to be able to accept that this is what the modern GOP do is their greatest strength. Nothing solidifies the right than the lefts sanctimonious repetition.

Brian?

The Nal wrote: »

GOP convention looks a thousand times more presidential than the Dems. Night and day,

With all the flags and eagles it looks like a Nuremberg rally.

2000 people on the whitehouse lawn with no masks or social distancing doesn’t look at all presidential to me.

pixelburp

The Nal wrote: »

His disrespect for the office came across very well to reasonable people with sense but thats not who they are targeting.



Again, this is something that baffles me. As above, they're targeting hysterical people who are easily manipulated by this sort of vitriolic rubbish. Influenced by post truth. It was the same in 2016. The Democrats just can't seem to comprehend this. They're playing a little nastier this time out but still on the "we go high" message.

I'd worry about Bidens chances even more now after this week. The inability of people to be able to accept that this is what the modern GOP do is their greatest strength. Nothing solidifies the right than the lefts sanctimonious repetition.

Trump won in 2016 by swinging Undecided, moderate voters tickled by an "anti-establishment" ticket and the resting distrust of Hillary Clinton. By all accounts Trump appealed to the centrists, moderates by promising quantifiable (albeit fantastical) actions: restore the Rust Belt (with "clean coal"); Build a Wall; Repeal Healthcare; MAGA. It may have been pipedream stuff but it was policy, and appeals towards a project for America. There was a plan, however nebulous.

Firstly, none of these have come to pass even before CoVid walloped the country. So there were no speeches of policy or plan this time around: instead the 2020 convention consisted of screeching, literal declarations that death would be a welcome relief in Biden's America. That's not even partisan, that's borderline Death Cult rhetoric; or a direct appeal to not just contest the election - but resist it. Couple that with Trump's repeated and very public lies that Postal Voting is fraudulent or that he may not accept a losing result and that's a cocktail for violence at worst, or another 2000 election at best. Admiring pomp and ceremony (that flew in the face of social distancing) is missing the substance of the convention and the groundwork it could yet be laying.

I don't wish for violence in November, that's patently insane and sadistic, but the manner in which Trump and his supporters are whipping the base into believing America as a nation is under threat goes beyond even post 9/11 frenzy. And we're arguably already seeing this with Kyle Rittenhouse shooting protestors; I hope it's aberrant and not sign of things to come. I worry for actual violence at the polling stations; I see nothing in the content of the GOP conference that suggests they're not trying to stir the pot and see where it goes

serfboard

pixelburp wrote: »

Trump ... promising quantifiable (albeit fantastical) actions: ... Repeal Healthcare

He didn't just promise to repeal healthcare. He promised to replace the ACA.

With what? "Something terrific".

duploelabs

serfboard wrote: »

He didn't just promise to repeal healthcare. He promised to replace the ACA.

With what? "Something terrific".

He also said he'd do it on his very first day, so far zilch even with controlling the house and senate for 2 years

FatherTed

For someone who Trump calls Sleepy Joe and said he has dementia, Biden sure will be doing a lot when elected. From last night:

he is the destroyer of America's Jobs
Joe Biden wants to inflict a painful shutdown on the entire country
Biden has promised to abolish the production of American oil, coal, shale, and natural gas
Joe Biden recently promised to give away YOUR healthcare dollars to illegal immigrants.
He also supports deadly Sanctuary Cities that protect criminal aliens.
He promised to end national security travel bans from Jihadist nations, and he pledged to increase refugee admissions by 700 percent.
The Biden Plan would eliminate America's borders in the middle of a global pandemic.
Biden also vowed to oppose School Choice and close down Charter Schools.
Biden is a Trojan horse for socialism.
The Biden-Bernie Manifesto calls for Abolishing cash bail
if you give power to Joe Biden, the radical left will Defund Police Departments all across America

Also he mentioned Bernie 8 times last night but no mention of Kamala Harris. Strange that given Harris is the VP nomination and not Bernie.

everlast75

If trump was doing such a fantastic job, why the hell must he lie so much regarding what he says he has done?

Why can't he tell the truth?

Don't his supporters get that?

Just lay it all out - what he has achieved over the last 4 years.


Is it not a red flag that he has to lie all of the time, that he has to BS about his achievements?

If he truly is the greatest, why is he not able to tell the truth to show that?

The Nal

everlast75 wrote: »

If trump was doing such a fantastic job, why the hell must he lie so much regarding what he says he has done?

Why can't he tell the truth?

Don't his supporters get that?

Just lay it all out - what he has achieved over the last 4 years.


Is it not a red flag that he has to lie all of the time, that he has to BS about his achievements?

If he truly is the greatest, why is he not able to tell the truth to show that?

His supporters don't mind if he lies. Accept that we live in a post truth world now. Facts are secondary to affiliation and division from the other side. As long as he appears to have their backs with a few catchphrases they'll be happy. Hence the "lock her up" and "build the wall" chants from 2016. Fish in a barrel for the GOP.

Retr0gamer

I just find it sadly ironic how trump and his cronies are bleating on about the coming apocalypse if the Democrats win all the while nearly 200K americans have died in a pandemic and america burns with race riots and fires in California.

salmocab

Brian? wrote: »

With all the flags and eagles it looks like a Nuremberg rally.

2000 people on the whitehouse lawn with no masks or social distancing doesn’t look at all presidential to me.

Well surely a couple of thousand people in the whitehouse grounds doing something stupid is exactly what passes for presidential these days

The Nal

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I don't think we have to accept that truth doesn't matter at all, just like we don't have to accept that it's ok for a bunch of neo nazis to take over our neighbouring countries to which we have so many ties.

People of Russia accepted all of this 20 years ago after being hammered by depression and decades of mismanagement. And look at the type of oligarchic dystopian ****hole they have now.

No we shouldn't give in to this. No we should not accept all this bull****.

Im not suggesting that people should give into this or accept it. Just to accept that other people do. The Dems telling half of the electorate that they're wrong won't win any votes. Its reactionary.

AbusesToilets

I would be concerned for the Democrats that the violence in Wisconsin runs the risk of alienating voters in a most critical swing state. They need to thread a thin line when they speak out in support of the civil unrest.

everlast75

The Nal wrote: »

Im not suggesting that people should give into this or accept it. Just to accept that other people do. The Dems telling half of the electorate that they're wrong won't win any votes. Its reactionary.

That's the problem.

No. MATTER. WHAT. The dems say, these trump supporters will disregard it.

If Dems said that Trump was a nazi, his supporters would spit fury.

If Trump said he was a nazi, his supporters would say "well, it's better to be a Nazi than a Democrat"

There is no reasoning with these people. They have had their most ignorant views supported and amplified by Fox, OAN, Trump and various social media sites. They are literally deaf to anything other than what they are told by these people/outlets. There is zero reasoning with them.

The problem is that this will lead to unholy hell if he loses. He is prepared to scorch the earth than be removed from office.

Retr0gamer

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I would be concerned for the Democrats that the violence in Wisconsin runs the risk of alienating voters in a most critical swing state. They need to thread a thin line when they speak out in support of the civil unrest.

Why would it? This is all on the GOPs watch. The Democrats aren't supporting violence but the people that can do something about it, namely the orange moron and his cronies in the white house are just fanning the flames and making things worse.

namloc1980

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I would be concerned for the Democrats that the violence in Wisconsin runs the risk of alienating voters in a most critical swing state. They need to thread a thin line when they speak out in support of the civil unrest.

There was no violence last night just peaceful protests. And the most extreme violence was by an armed self proclaimed underage militia who killed 2 people. The Democrats have been pretty clearly speaking out against the violence.

FatherTed

Amazing fact checks here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kq0CtHbYIzA

Trump will spew whatever he wants no matter how false it is and his followers will believe it and never question it.

everlast75

A very interesting piece by a former Russian ambassador, who is well respected by all, and who has a wealth of experience. Worth a read and a warning for those voting in November as to what they are getting.





For those of us who study autocracies, including elections in autocracies, there were a lot of familiar messages, symbols, and methods on display this week at the #RNCConvention. THREAD

1. Cult of the Personality. This show was all about Trump. ( 3 years after the death of Stalin, Khrushchev's gave his secret speech in 1956, titled "On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences." I wonder if a future GOP leader will give a similar speech someday?)

2. Administrative resources. Autocrats and semi-autocrats frequently use government resources for personal electoral gain. We have #HatchAct to prevent such behavior in the U.S. It's obviously not working.

3. Blatant disregard for the law. That Trump's team dared anyone to charge them with violating the #HatchAct is exactly what Putin and others autocrats do all the time. Laws don't apply to the king & his court, only to the subjects.

4. Blatant disregard for facts. As U.S. ambassador to Russia, I found this Putin regime trait most frustrating. We - the U.S. government- were constrained by facts. They were not. Trump obviously was not constrained by facts last night. He usually isn't: amazon.com/gp/product/B08…

5. Us versus Them populism. "Elites" versus "the people" nationalism. Autocratic populists use polarizing identity politics to divide societies all the time. Many populist leaders actually have little in common with the "masses." (Putin is very rich.)

6. The opposition is the "enemy of the people." Putin & other autocratic populists cast their opponents as radicals & revolutionaries. They don't focus on their own records - often there is little to celebrate - but the horrors that will happen if they lose power. Sound familiar?

6b. There is one difference between Putin and Trump so far. Putin also claims falsely that his political opponents are supported by foreign enemies, the U.S. & the West. Trump has not gone there full-throated yet. But my guess it's coming. "Beijing Biden" is a hint.

7. Law and Order. Autocratic populists all shout about it, even when the opposite is happening on their watch.

8. The good tsar versus the bad boyars. Kings and tsars always blamed bad provincial leaders for national ills. Putin blames the governors all the time... just like Trump.

9. Individual acts of royal kindness. Putin, like the tsars he emulates, does this all the time. Trump offering a pardon or "granting" citizenship (which of course he didnt & doesn't have the power to do) are typical, faux gestures of royal kindness toward his subjects.

10. Homage and fealty. Vassals must signal their complete loyalty and absolute devotion to kings and autocrats. Those that don't are banished from the royal court or the party. (Where were the Bushes last night?)

11. The royal family. In this dimension, Trump acts more like a monarch than even Putin. (but watch Lukashenko and his gun-toting teenage son in Belarus)The many Trump family members who performed this week - even a girlfriend got a slot - went beyond even what Putin does.

12. There's still one big difference. We still don't know who will win the November election. That uncertainty is a crucial difference between electoral democracies & electoral autocracies. Its also a difference that has no guarantee of lasting, depending on the outcome this year

looksee

That's fascinating, do you have a link/reference?

everlast75

looksee wrote: »

That's fascinating, do you have a link/reference?

Here you go.

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1299393438522077190?s=19

StringerBell

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Why would it? This is all on the GOPs watch. The Democrats aren't supporting violence but the people that can do something about it, namely the orange moron and his cronies in the white house are just fanning the flames and making things worse.

He's not wrong actually, the support for BLM which is now a dividing issue has lost support from June to August in certain areas where BLM related or blamed violence is taking place. This is something that Biden and the team need to keep an eye on and make sure they don't lose too many votes by association.

Biden going and speaking there I think, off the cuff, unscripted would be the best course of action. It isn't like the poll showing the drop in support is going to directly mean that people will not be voting Biden automatically but it is something the campaign needs to be on top of. Those swing states are absolutely vital obviously

hotmail.com

Brian? wrote: »

With all the flags and eagles it looks like a Nuremberg rally.

2000 people on the whitehouse lawn with no masks or social distancing doesn’t look at all presidential to me.

These conventions are a battle of the flags.

Both parties parade their nationalistic American nonsense.

hotmail.com

Retr0gamer wrote: »

I just find it sadly ironic how trump and his cronies are bleating on about the coming apocalypse if the Democrats win all the while nearly 200K americans have died in a pandemic and america burns with race riots and fires in California.

Most people in America unaffected by the above.

Race riots and clashes are regular in America.

Fires in California.. happens all the time.

The pandemic - once Americans still can go to McDonald's, they don't care about the loss of life.

everlast75

hotmail.com wrote: »

These conventions are a battle of the flags.

Both parties parade their nationalistic American nonsense.

Only one candidate repeatedly hugged the flag in a desperate attempt to look patriotic

hotmail.com

everlast75 wrote: »

Only one candidate repeatedly hugged the flag in a desperate attempt to look patriotic

I didn't see much difference in the Democrat one.

The flag thing is an American culture thing.

America is similar to North Korea in many ways, mixed with religious fundamentalists.

everlast75

hotmail.com wrote: »

I didn't see much difference in the Democrat one.

That's a significant problem

hotmail.com

hotmail.com wrote: »

Most people in America unaffected by the above.

Race riots and clashes are regular in America.

Fires in California.. happens all the time.

The pandemic - once Americans still can go to McDonald's, they don't care about the loss of life.

The odds of people knowing people who died from covid is incredibly high. Older voters are incredibly affected, not getting any handle on it means that plenty of older people simply can't go out. That's a pretty large and important voting demographic.

pixelburp

hotmail.com wrote: »

I didn't see much difference in the Democrat one.

The flag thing is an American culture thing.

America is similar to North Korea in many ways, mixed with religious fundamentalists.

The problems have not been what was seen at both conventions, but what was said. And while your noted indifference to the subject is familiar, your constant insistence that the Dems & GOP as identical ring false against the hysterical apocalyptic rhetoric at the Rep convention. Eclipsing even the zealotry of post 9/11. The GOP convention used the language of the Death Cult and even the eternally jaded like yourself must find that disturbing.

Itssoeasy

hotmail.com wrote: »

I didn't see much difference in the Democrat one.

The flag thing is an American culture thing.

America is similar to North Korea in many ways, mixed with religious fundamentalists.

Well there is a difference because one candidate did literally hug a flag to presumably overcompensate on the patriotism meter which is something the current president does a lot.

Also, the GOP convention in which part of the convention took place at the White House which in the not too distant past both parties held as hallowed ground and didn’t do **** like trump did.

And if the American people care more about a ****ty lump of meat than the deaths of nearly 200K of their fellow countrymen and countrywomen then that’s a fairly poor reflection on that nation.

JJayoo

What happens if they beat the evil Trump....and the protesting/looting/violence continues?

JJayoo

JJayoo wrote: »

What happens if they beat the evil Trump....and the protesting/looting/violence continues?

I can't imagine it'll simply stop. America has to start to address the systemic issues. That includes the Police, education system funding and the prison industrial complex. I do imagine the President not aiming to further inflame the situation will help though.

MisterAnarchy

Interesting article in the Telegraph today by Douglas Murray

It’s in the UK’s national interest for Trump to triumph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/28/uks-national-interest-trump-triumph/

Non paywall
https://archive.vn/fX0AD

MisterAnarchy

MisterAnarchy wrote: »

Interesting article in the Telegraph today by Douglas Murray

It’s in the UK’s national interest for Trump to triumph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/28/uks-national-interest-trump-triumph/

Non paywall
https://archive.vn/fX0AD

Firstly, Murray is somewhat of a shock jockey. Him hedging his bets on the UK getting a good trade deal with the US is somewhat irrelevant to Ireland. He claims Trump is one of the most successful Americans in US history which is highly debatable. Speculates that Clinton would have gone to war which is simply speculation. He actively ignores how divisive and damaging Trump has been to put international relations and socially in a domestic sense.

On top of that, he's been incredibly favourable towards Putin in spite of electoral interference. If the Russians start targeting British soldiers, he won't back them up. Overall he's achieved nothing with his actions against China. But has actively egged on xenophobia.

So the article amounts to ignoring what he's done in 4 years by an author who likes to shock.

MisterAnarchy

Deleted User wrote: »

Firstly, Murray is somewhat of a shock jockey. Him hedging his bets on the UK getting a good trade deal with the US is somewhat irrelevant to Ireland. He claims Trump is one of the most successful Americans in US history which is highly debatable. Speculates that Clinton would have gone to war which is simply speculation. He actively ignores how divisive and damaging Trump has been to put international relations and socially in a domestic sense.

On top of that, he's been incredibly favourable towards Putin in spite of electoral interference. If the Russians start targeting British soldiers, he won't back them up. Overall he's achieved nothing with his actions against China. But has actively egged on xenophobia.

So the article amounts to ignoring what he's done in 4 years by an author who likes to shock.

It looks like the article is a counter view to one William Hague wrote a few days ago in favour of Joe Biden

It’s in the UK’s national interest that Joe Biden wins the presidential race

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/24/uks-national-interest-joe-biden-wins-presidential-race/

Perhaps Murray is playing the devil's advocate a bit but none the less he raises some good points.

salmocab

JJayoo wrote: »

What happens if they beat the evil Trump....and the protesting/looting/violence continues?

The people trying to beat Trump and the ones protesting/looting and being violent aren’t the same people no matter how much the GOP would like to push the narrative.