US Presidential Election 2020

Inquitus

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Just theorising on a worst case scenario.

What would happen if Trump (or Biden) were to win the Election but dies (or have to retire due to ill health) before the Electoral college vote (December 12th I think?)

In the case of Trump , Pence would become POTUS at least until January 20th , but what would happen to the Electoral college vote if the person was no longer there to take the post for the next 4 years?

I've read a bunch of stuff about contested EC votes etc. etc. but don't think I've ever seen if a scenario like that is accounted for in the rules.

No President-elect has in fact failed to be sworn in. Nevertheless, the rules for what would happen if a President-elect were to be unavailable to be sworn in actually became a part of our law with the adoption of the 20th Amendment in 1933. This amendment was passed primarily to shorten the length of time between the general election and the beginning of the new administration (inauguration day was moved from March to January). But it also specified that if, at the time of the inauguration, the President-elect has died, then the Vice-President-elect becomes President, and if a President has not yet been qualified by that time, then the Vice-President-elect acts as President until a President has been so qualified. The concern was that, since inauguration day was moved earlier, provision had to be made to cover cases in which the Electoral College vote did not prove decisive and the winner had to be chosen through a possibly lengthy series of votes in Congress.

https://teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/20431

droidus

Phoebas wrote: »

Trump gives it to Biden. Biden dies. Trump wins the Presidency.

PM me to discuss terms for the movie rights.

It'll be weekend at Bernie's 3 except 70 million people are in on it.

I really hope that debate stage was well ventilated. It would be very 2020 for Biden to die after contracting it from Trump.

droidus

Also have to wonder what would happen if Trump is knocked out of the race or leaves with this as an excuse. Obviously one would assume that Biden beats Pence everytime, but it's also possible that Pence is a better bet than Trump at this stage.

seamus

I wouldn't be too concerned about Trump spreading it to Biden.

If you look at images of the event, there was a good 3 metres between them, and the podiums configured so that they were actually facing the moderator more than eachother.

It's not impossible, but we already know that distancing beyond two metres puts the odds of catching it into the fractional percent range.

stefanovich

valoren wrote: »

his failure to condemn white supremacists

Can the proud boys be described as such? Aren't they a fairly diverse bunch?

Zubeneschamali

The messy part is if he dies after the election but before the electors make him President Elect.

Some states have laws saying the electors have to vote for the person on the ballot.

Quin_Dub

Inquitus wrote: »

https://teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/20431

No President-elect has in fact failed to be sworn in. Nevertheless, the rules for what would happen if a President-elect were to be unavailable to be sworn in actually became a part of our law with the adoption of the 20th Amendment in 1933. This amendment was passed primarily to shorten the length of time between the general election and the beginning of the new administration (inauguration day was moved from March to January). But it also specified that if, at the time of the inauguration, the President-elect has died, then the Vice-President-elect becomes President, and if a President has not yet been qualified by that time, then the Vice-President-elect acts as President until a President has been so qualified. The concern was that, since inauguration day was moved earlier, provision had to be made to cover cases in which the Electoral College vote did not prove decisive and the winner had to be chosen through a possibly lengthy series of votes in Congress.

What does "qualified" mean here?

If the President Elect dies before the Electoral College vote but after the election does mean that they have not been "qualified"?

Does that mean a new Election?

Inquitus

Quin_Dub wrote: »

What does "qualified" mean here?

If the President Elect dies before the Electoral College vote but after the election does mean that they have not been "qualified"?

Does that mean a new Election?

Not "Qualified" means no Electoral College outcome, I believe, that sends it to Congress and then probably to the Supreme Court. Unfaithful electors, abstentions in the Electoral college, that sort of stuff could lead to no qualification I guess, or perhaps a 3rd Party candidate hoovering up enough Electoral votes to leave noone with 270+.

Brussels Sprout

stefanovich wrote: »

Can the proud boys be described as such? Aren't they a fairly diverse bunch?

Yes, I believe some of them have beards and some of them do not.

duploelabs

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Yes, I believe some of them have beards and some of them do not.

Are there any 'proud girls'?

Zubeneschamali

8% death rate in 70-80 year old, obesity bumps that by half, giving a 12% chance he dies.

Quite a bit less than the odds on him winning.

Would be very close to the election, too late to change ballots. Some people have already voted.

everlast75

duploelabs wrote: »

Are there any 'proud girls'?

I have a feeling that if there were, they wouldn't be as angry and heading out to cause trouble...

droidus

seamus wrote: »

I wouldn't be too concerned about Trump spreading it to Biden.

If you look at images of the event, there was a good 3 metres between them, and the podiums configured so that they were actually facing the moderator more than eachother.

It's not impossible, but we already know that distancing beyond two metres puts the odds of catching it into the fractional percent range.

Lets hope.

The two candidates did not shake hands under Covid rules, and their lecterns were about 10ft apart, but for the majority of the debate the president was speaking, sometimes at high volume, in Biden’s direction in an indoor venue in Cleveland.

Saskia Popescu, an epidemiologist and assistant professor at the George Mason University, said it was “entirely possible” Biden had been exposed, as Trump would have been infectious for 48 before testing positive.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news

weisses

duploelabs wrote: »

Are there any 'proud girls'?

That will be the ones with the moustaches

Quin_Dub

droidus wrote: »

Lets hope.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/oct/02/donald-trump-tests-positive-coronavirus-covid-mike-pence-joe-biden-us-politics-live-latest-news

QQ - From a Contact tracing perspective , if you are a close contact and you get tested right away and get the all clear , is that it or is there still a possibility you might come down with it some time later?

Just thinking in the context of Biden (or Pence or anybody else) , would he have to isolate for 2 weeks automatically or does a negative test give him the all clear there and then?

droidus

Yeah, I think you would have to be tested again within a few days to be sure, and then probably again a week or so later.

IIRC the guidance here is to isolate even in the event of a negative test.

Inquitus

Quin_Dub wrote: »

QQ - From a Contact tracing perspective , if you are a close contact and you get tested right away and get the all clear , is that it or is there still a possibility you might come down with it some time later?

Just thinking in the context of Biden (or Pence or anybody else) , would he have to isolate for 2 weeks automatically or does a negative test give him the all clear there and then?

Seems at least 5 days post contact is ideal for 95% accuracy, I assume Biden is using the best testing and not the PCR test which the rest of us are stuck with:

The diagnostic test, known as a “PCR test,” works by detecting genetic material from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in the nose and upper throat. A study that examined false-negative rates post-exposure, found that during the four days of infection prior to symptom onset, the probability of a false negative on the PCR test went from 100 percent on Day 1 to 67 percent on Day 4. And even on the day individuals began showing symptoms, the false negative rate was still 38 percent, dropping to 20 percent three days after symptom onset. Of course, much depends on the sensitivity of the particular test being used. MIT Medical is using a test that has been shown to have a false-negative rate of less than 5 percent five days post exposure.

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/07/when-should-i-be-tested

gmisk

duploelabs wrote: »

Are there any 'proud girls'?

There is a wing called proud boys girls....
Bizarre for an organisation that is opposed to feminism and promotes gender stereotypes in which women are subservient to men...but hey!
America!

Quin_Dub

Inquitus wrote: »

Seems at least 5 days post contact is ideal:



https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/07/when-should-i-be-tested

Ok - So for Biden , if he was tested today , that's ~3 days from potential exposure and then maybe Sunday/Monday test again to be sure.

Someone like Pence who was probably with Trump yesterday at some point, he's in isolation until maybe Tuesday/Wednesday assuming all goes well with a negative test result.

Carfacemandog

stefanovich wrote: »

Can the proud boys be described as such? Aren't they a fairly diverse bunch?

Why in your opinion when asked about white supremacists did Trump specifically bring up the Proud Boys?

StringerBell

Pence and his wife have tested negative, presumably they will need to be tested again in a few days to confirm.

seamus

droidus wrote: »

Yeah, I think you would have to be tested again within a few days to be sure, and then probably again a week or so later.

IIRC the guidance here is to isolate even in the event of a negative test.

Going by Irish guidelines, Biden wouldn't be classed as a close contact, as he was more than 2 metres from Trump at all times and (presumably) not in the same room for more than 2 hours.

I'm sure his medical team have him well briefed on what to do/expect. He will probably isolate for a week from today and get tested every day in that week. The respite will probably be welcome.

everlast75

seamus wrote: »

Going by Irish guidelines, Biden wouldn't be classed as a close contact, as he was more than 2 metres from Trump at all times and (presumably) not in the same room for more than 2 hours.

I'm sure his medical team have him well briefed on what to do/expect. He will probably isolate for a week from today and get tested every day in that week. The respite will probably be welcome.

The advantages of listening to and complying with actual medical....

amdublin

I'm going to assume that Kayleigh McAnamey is deemed a close contact. So she should be isolating also? And not putting the press corp at risk etc

Foxtrol

In a lot of place I'm seeing the usual 'Trump is a chess master' type takes when all evidence is that Trump is far more a broken clock.

This hurts him politically on so many levels, with it being emphasized even more due to his narcissism:
- It stops him from doing any in person campaigning, the thing that he is clearly most proud, enjoys, and eases his broken ego.
- It makes him look weak to have everyone on the news talk about his age, weight, other health problems (if he fights it off he can't take a victory lap of his strength without rubbing it in the faces of the families of 200k dead americans).
- It highlights to how wrong his administration has been regarding mask wearing, campaigning etc.
- It allows Biden to run adds basic non-attack ads on COVID how he'll deal with it better, with the subtext that despite Trump having all the powers of the president he can't even keep himself safe so how can he keep your family safe

The main concern I have that with dumb Trump luck, his recklessness will have infected Biden during the debate and Biden will get a much more serious case.

amdublin

Foxtrol wrote: »

….

The main concern I have that with dumb Trump luck, his recklessness will have infected Biden during the debate and Biden will get a much more serious case.

Me too

everlast75

Foxtrol wrote: »

In a lot of place I'm seeing the usual 'Trump is a chess master' type takes when all evidence is that Trump is far more a broken clock.

This hurts him politically on so many levels, with it being emphasized even more due to his narcissism:
- It stops him from doing any in person campaigning, the thing that he is clearly most proud, enjoys, and eases his broken ego.
- It makes him look weak to have everyone on the news talk about his age, weight, other health problems (if he fights it off he can't take a victory lap of his strength without rubbing it in the faces of the families of 200k dead americans).
- It highlights to how wrong his administration has been regarding mask wearing, campaigning etc.
- It allows Biden to run adds basic non-attack ads on COVID how he'll deal with it better, with the subtext that despite Trump having all the powers of the president he can't even keep himself safe so how can he keep your family safe

The main concern I have that with dumb Trump luck, his recklessness will have infected Biden during the debate and Biden will get a much more serious case.

That all may be true, but one's choices are determined by the options available.

Perhaps the above is the lesser of two evils.

Perhaps it has been brought home to him that he may suffer the biggest electoral defeat in history and rather than suffer the indignity of that for time immemorial, he will rough it out for the next four or so weeks and avoid that notoriety?

You'd wonder how much enthusiasm Trump could have for another 4 years.

VinLieger

6 wrote: »

You'd wonder how much enthusiasm Trump could have for another 4 years.

Id say hes pretty enthusiastic about not going to Jail.

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

Id say hes pretty enthusiastic about not going to Jail.

Ha, true :pac:

Zubeneschamali

VinLieger wrote: »

Id say hes pretty enthusiastic about not going to Jail.

He also has $400m in debt coming at him in the next few years, money he doesn't have. Even if he dodges jail, he will lose everything. Unless he wins, then he gets four more years to duck and dive.

hetuzozaho

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Why in your opinion when asked about white supremacists did Trump specifically bring up the Proud Boys?

At the debate? Biden brought them up.

Igotadose

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

He also has $400m in debt coming at him in the next few years, money he doesn't have. Even if he dodges jail, he will lose everything. Unless he wins, then he gets four more years to duck and dive.

It's a lot of money over the next few years. About a billion per the analysis posted here yesterday from the dude on twitter. But, if he sells his skyscrapers he'll likely be left with living expenses. By then, though, he'll have a commentary slot on OANN so he'll be able to put Big Macs on the table for awhile.

Quin_Dub

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Maybe he will walk away from white house and try to get Pence to give him and his family all immunity from federal prosecutions which must surely be baking now in background seeing how he more than likely done tax fraud, was involved in money laundering, and committed treason.

Doesn't really help him against state investigations but he might be able to hold those off for a few years before getting asylum in Russia.

This is something that we hear a lot , but what's in it for Pence?

If Pence pardons him , he effectively gets to carry that taint with him for ever.

Pence clearly has aspirations to go for the big chair himself in 2024 , if he pardons Trump at the Federal level , Trump will still get done at State level and because he's pardoned he can't hide behind the 5th Amendment for anything that might get discovered about him so it could all come out and Pence looks horrendous for giving him a pass.

There's really no guarantee that Pence would do it. I certainly wouldn't be banking on it if I were Trump.

Zubeneschamali

Igotadose wrote: »

But, if he sells his skyscrapers he'll likely be left with living expenses

Nope, the skyscrapers are all mortgaged to the hilt. Per the detailed NYT report last month, he has 421 million coming due in the next 4 years an no means to pay.

All his businesses have always lost money apart from the first, Trump Tower. Since then, he's borrowed a fortune, burned through it, been bailed out by his Dad, burned through that, made a fortune on The Apprentice, blown it, and continued to lose money to this day.

When the loans come due, he'll be wiped out. Hence his venal embezzling of a few millions here, a few there from his inauguration fund, security for Melania in NY, golf weekends etc.

Quin_Dub

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nope, the skyscrapers are all mortgaged to the hilt. Per the detailed NYT report last month, he has 421 million coming due in the next 4 years an no means to pay.

All his businesses have always lost money apart from the first, Trump Tower. Since then, he's borrowed a fortune, burned through it, been bailed out by his Dad, burned through that, made a fortune on The Apprentice, blown it, and continued to lose money to this day.

When the loans come due, he'll be wiped out. Hence his venal embezzling of a few millions here, a few there from his inauguration fund, security for Melania in NY, golf weekends etc.

The Critical part for him was keeping up the sham, hence the desperate fight to keep his taxes secret.

He might have been able to float those debts into new mortgages on the basis of him being POTUS and still being the "Uber Business Mogul" blah blah blah.

That bubble is now well and truly burst - Everyone he owes money to will want payment in full and won't be offering right downs or extensions and the like.

They will not stop until they have the money or the deeds.

VinLieger

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Nope, the skyscrapers are all mortgaged to the hilt. Per the detailed NYT report last month, he has 421 million coming due in the next 4 years an no means to pay.

All his businesses have always lost money apart from the first, Trump Tower. Since then, he's borrowed a fortune, burned through it, been bailed out by his Dad, burned through that, made a fortune on The Apprentice, blown it, and continued to lose money to this day.

When the loans come due, he'll be wiped out. Hence his venal embezzling of a few millions here, a few there from his inauguration fund, security for Melania in NY, golf weekends etc.

He actually owes closer to 1.1 billion much of which is due within the next 4 years


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/10/can-trump-pay-off-his-billion-in-debt

everlast75

Republican Senator Mike Lee has tested positive.

Ronna McDaniel, Chairwoman of the RNC, has tested positive.

Looks like a refusal to wear masks have consequences. Who'd have thunk it?

everlast75

VinLieger wrote: »

He actually owes closer to 1.1 billion much of which is due within the next 4 years


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/10/can-trump-pay-off-his-billion-in-debt

That $421m is debt personally guaranteed by him.

VinLieger

everlast75 wrote: »

That $421m is debt personally guaranteed by him.

Ohh I know but with his businesses included its 1.1 billion which altogether goes towards estimating his solvency because it shows hes not pulling in anywhere close enough money to service both his personal and business loans.

PopePalpatine

everlast75 wrote: »

That $421m is debt personally guaranteed by him.

How many golf trips would pay for that?

Inquitus

PopePalpatine wrote: »

How many golf trips would pay for that?

4 more years would make a decent dent in it!

droidus

BIDEN NEGATIVE!!

Foxtrol

droidus wrote: »

BIDEN NEGATIVE!!

It incubates for a few days before someone tests positive so he is unfortunately no where close to being out of the woods.

droidus

Sure, but its a start. 3 days since contact.

Itssoeasy

Foxtrol wrote: »

It incubates for a few days before someone tests positive so he is unfortunately no where close to being out of the woods.

The same could be said about mike pence and the presidents children and son in law and others in his orbit.

Muahahaha

everlast75 wrote: »

Republican Senator Mike Lee has tested positive.

Ronna McDaniel, Chairwoman of the RNC, has tested positive.

Looks like a refusal to wear masks have consequences. Who'd have thunk it?

Lucukily we have Biden to remind people to wear masks

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1312065485400346625

Foxtrol

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The same could be said about mike pence and the presidents children and son in law and others in his orbit.

It is rippling through the white house and republican party. It was only a matter of time

amdublin

Joe Biden has tested negative. Let's hope that stays that way

amdublin

droidus wrote: »

Sure, but its a start. 3 days since contact.

A good sign. Please be ok Joe!