US Presidential Election 2020

dwayneshintzy

greenfield21 wrote: »

Trump will use EOs from treasury to get money out there, Pelosi probably looking for two much goodies to benefit Democrats. Still don't think this stimulus package is lost, it doesn't take long to get stimulus checks out.

Also does that CNN poll have the economy basically fourth on list of worries and climate change on 60%( very important, important) WTF. Where do they find these people.

Give us an example of what you're talking about here, please.

LuckyLloyd

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH I wouldnt get too hung up on national polls. The US does not vote nationally. It votes on a state by state basis and the popular (national) vote is somewhat irrelevant as we have seen twice in the past 20 years.

partyguinness wrote: »

I would say it's 50-50 at best.



I would say Florida, NC and Arizona are within the margin of error and current 'red' states. Too close for comfort IMO.

We can only analyse the polling we have. A huge amount of effort has been put in by the likes of 538 and other predictors to distill the polls that make up the model and be clear on what the data is actually saying and its limitations.

The 'oh well the polls were wrong in 2016' and 'you just never know' type responses don't really help us get anywhere. Particularly when early voting is underway in numerous states. The election happens November 3rd, sure, but early voting volumes are extremely strong already:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/06/election-2020-fueled-democrats-early-voting-way-up/3623292001/

So polls may tighten and surprises my happen and Trump may have 5% hidden silent minority. But we have a really strong polling perspective today and a subset of voters are heading to the polls today.

Quin_Dub

Just on early voting.


This time 4 years ago there were about 75k early/postal votes cast.

As of earlier this week 4.2 Million votes had been cast.

A large majority of those votes cast are from Democrats it doesn't mean that Republican voters aren't going to vote , but it does mean that large numbers of votes are done and dusted already , at a time when Trump is badly behind in the polling.

Nothing that happens over the next 4 weeks can change those votes now, which is bad news for Trump.

Some States have seen a large percentage of the votes cast already - South Dakota has already had 23% of the total from 2016 , Wisconsin has had 15% and 17% in Virginia.

That's going to be significant.

beggars_bush

Rjd2 wrote: »

Oh yeah they are desperate to get ACB confirmed for sure, but I think you underestimate how some of the GOP are so slavish in their devotion to Zombie reganism. Even when the election looked much closer a few months ago their was plenty of moaning about "free money" etc.

These type of GOP politicians,,,their biggest fear is poor people getting "more money than they should",,, doesn't matter if their is votes in it .

A lazy comparison in Ireland would be people who spend way to much time crying about people on welfare getting an extra tenner every Xmas.

the same people were queuing outside Smyths the other day to spend that tenner before they had even got it

I'm expecting the voter turnout to be massive. This will be the election that has the youth vote up by a serious percentage. The comparisons people are making to Clinton's polling around 2016 are especially naive. We've seen what 4 years of Trump looks like. I'm sure plenty of centrist and moderate Republicans are sick to death of hearing about Trump's f-ups every single day. Joe Biden may be bland but he doesn't need to be charismatic to get the vote out when there is a lunatic running on the other side. And if there is anyone with a (D) beside their name that the moderate Republicans will vote for it's a glorified "lite" Democrat like Joe Biden.

Even with all the mail in ballot court cases the GOP are trying to throw at Democrats to get the turnout down I don't think they can really do anything to stop this. Biden is only 3 points behind Trump is Texas. The fact it is even that close in such a deep red state tells you all you need to know.

Quin_Dub

The bottom line is in 2016 , Trump won by ~70,000 votes across 3 mid-western States.

Hi squeaked in on the basis of Three main things.

1 - Hilary Clinton is universally disliked , across the board
2 - General frustration with "Politicians"
3 - Because of #1 & #2 , A fairly large element of "Give him a go , what's the worst that could happen"

Now though -

1 - Joe Biden just isn't disliked by anyone really , despite what the Trump team try to say - In this respect his "blandness" is a strength
2 - That still applies , but Trump is now "The Politician"
3 - Everybody knows exactly what they have to lose and they will vote accordingly and given that his approval rating has never gotten above 50% for his entire tenure that vote preference is not likely to be in his favour.

StringerBell

I've decided Biden is gonna win Texas today.

Democrats tend to outperform the polls in Texas and that's what I've decided for the day. Cause if he wins Texas it doesn't really matter about Florida or Pennsylvania or wherever. JC is gonna lose his senate seat in texas too for the same reasons. Happy thoughts today.

marno21

Clinton struggled to break 47 in the polls after April 2016. She was ahead in the polls until election day but there was a sizeable chunk of undecideds

Biden has broken 50 in every single poll since the debate, he has a double digit lead in the majority and his lead has been greater than the proportion of undecides in every single one of them.

Comparisons between 2016 and 2020 are completely meaningless at this stage. And that's before you examine the leads Biden has in nearly every swing state

Water John

The main question at this point is, can the Dems seal the deal? Get the numbers they have, to vote.

StringerBell

Water John wrote: »

The main question at this point is, can the Dems seal the deal? Get the numbers they have, to vote.

Traditionally thats where they have fallen down, Republicans get it together and get out and vote. Democrats tend to infight and protest vote and abstain etc for various reasons. Going from 2018 which was good turnout for mid terms and the absolute sea of opposition to Donald trump they really, really should be motivated and get the vote out this election. Making sure they can and that they are counted is another story.

It has got to be undeniable, thats all I know. They have to make themselves undeniable. An overwhelming rejection of trump and of the strategy Mitch has used since 2008 (even before Obama was sworn in they had a strategy planned) is all that might tilt the Republican party back to being ideological adversaries but back on common ground.

Tell me how

Water John wrote: »

The main question at this point is, can the Dems seal the deal? Get the numbers they have, to vote.

Was chatting to a couple in their 70's here who said that they have never seen such engagement in political discussion as is going on right now.

They expect to see turn out in the region of 70% which would be the highest in 100 years.
I don't think we'll see that given Covid and everything but even 60% would be up 5 points than 2016 and in itself would be higher than any election since the 60's.

Realt Dearg Sec

StringerBell wrote: »

I've decided Biden is gonna win Texas today.

Democrats tend to outperform the polls in Texas and that's what I've decided for the day. Cause if he wins Texas it doesn't really matter about Florida or Pennsylvania or wherever. JC is gonna lose his senate seat in texas too for the same reasons. Happy thoughts today.

I hope you're right, but speaking as someone who has lived in Texas for the last four years, I'm just not going to believe in a blue Texas until the day I see one, and this seems one election cycle too early. Abbott's pretty transparent voter suppression with the drop off centers in Harris and Dallas etc is the main reason, but I'm thinking also of the Senate race two years ago, where polls occasionally gave Beto the win or at least a toss up, and in the end he fell short. That was against probably the most universally disliked senator in America. I knew no Republicans who liked him but they were just unwilling to try a dem when push came to shove. I think it goes the same in the end here. Would love to see Cornyn lose, and the general sensation of rats abandoning the ship we've seen lately with the likes of McSally in Arizona refusing to echo support for Trump in a debate indicates they realise they've backed a losing horse here, but I think in the end Texas will stand pat. Expect Cruz to lose in 2024 though, in fact his recent actions undercutting other Republicans indicate he can see that coming too.

StringerBell

Oh I agree in realistic terms it's one cycle early, but positivity only from me today on it

everlast75

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

Realt Dearg Sec

everlast75 wrote: »

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

I mean...have you met his supporters?

VinLieger

everlast75 wrote: »

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

Of course they do hes owning the libs by not letting the dumbocrats pass their stimulus bill that the entire country sorely needs......

Quin_Dub

everlast75 wrote: »

Surely his state of mind is now (more than ever) in question?

Do his supporters think he is... okay?

Apparently his family don't think he's ok

Donald Trump, Jr. is reportedly concerned that his father is “acting crazy” since his coronavirus diagnosis and believes the commander-in-chief may need an intervention. Vanity Fair is reporting that Trump, Jr. was concerned after seeing his father riding around Walter Reed National Military Medical Center doing what might be described as a “victory lap” on Sunday night.

Quin_Dub

The latest Rasmussen reports are out.

Their weekly Election Poll now has Biden at +12 - 52% to 40%.

Trump led by +1 two weeks ago.

Their daily "Presidential Approval" Poll now has Trump at 54% disapproval with 49% "Strongly disapproving".

Again , two weeks ago Trump was at 52% approval.

The gap between Strongly Approve and Strongly Disapprove has gone from +4 on September 18th to -15 today.

A 19 point negative swing in "Strong" opinion in about 3 weeks.

That's just huge , especially from Rasmussen who traditionally would be a few points more positive towards Trump and the GOP than the rest of the pollsters.

It gives real credence to the +12 and +16 polls from CNN and IPSOS in recent days.

Manic Moran

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

I hope you're right, but speaking as someone who has lived in Texas for the last four years, I'm just not going to believe in a blue Texas until the day I see one, and this seems one election cycle too early. Abbott's pretty transparent voter suppression with the drop off centers in Harris and Dallas etc is the main reason, but I'm thinking also of the Senate race two years ago, where polls occasionally gave Beto the win or at least a toss up, and in the end he fell short. That was against probably the most universally disliked senator in America. I knew no Republicans who liked him but they were just unwilling to try a dem when push came to shove. I think it goes the same in the end here. Would love to see Cornyn lose, and the general sensation of rats abandoning the ship we've seen lately with the likes of McSally in Arizona refusing to echo support for Trump in a debate indicates they realise they've backed a losing horse here, but I think in the end Texas will stand pat. Expect Cruz to lose in 2024 though, in fact his recent actions undercutting other Republicans indicate he can see that coming too.

I'll be surprised if Texas turns blue even in the cycle after next. That's not to say that they won't vote Biden (I think it unlikely, but I won't be massively surprised if it happens). Not liking Trump does not necessarily correlate with an approval of Democrats around here, I think the overall 'leanings' of Texas will be better represented by their voting patterns on Congressmen and state legislators than by President on this particular issue. (The same can probably be said for a few traditionally non-blue States). Conryn is about 8 ahead in the polls over his Democrat rival right now.

After the election, it will be very interesting to compare the number of votes Trump gets with the number of votes Conryn gets, and contrast with the number of votes Biden gets vs Hegar. What I'd specifically be looking for is what percentage of people voted for Senator but did not vote for anyone in the Presidential race. I suspect more republican voters would fall into that category than Democrats. Both Conryn and Hegar are relatively "inoffensive" to their opposition, not like Beto/Cruz which was something of a battle of extremes.

breezy1985

Using the absolute worst possible polling from a Trump point of view how many states would he be predicted to win. I assume we have no chance of an FDR or Reagan style landslide do we ?

Foxtrol

Manic Moran wrote: »

I'll be surprised if Texas turns blue even in the cycle after next. That's not to say that they won't vote Biden (I think it unlikely, but I won't be massively surprised if it happens). Not liking Trump does not necessarily correlate with an approval of Democrats around here, I think the overall 'leanings' of Texas will be better represented by their voting patterns on Congressmen and state legislators than by President on this particular issue. (The same can probably be said for a few traditionally non-blue States). Conryn is about 8 ahead in the polls over his Democrat rival right now.

After the election, it will be very interesting to compare the number of votes Trump gets with the number of votes Conryn gets, and contrast with the number of votes Biden gets vs Hegar. What I'd specifically be looking for is what percentage of people voted for Senator but did not vote for anyone in the Presidential race. I suspect more republican voters would fall into that category than Democrats. Both Conryn and Hegar are relatively "inoffensive" to their opposition, not like Beto/Cruz which was something of a battle of extremes.

Senate support is one thing but isn't numbers you highlighted in bold at least in part thanks to ridiculous levels gerrymandering by the GOP?

Look at GOP darling Dan Crenshaw's district. It would be deemed a farce in nearly any other functioning democracy.

https://twitter.com/nknash/status/1261060716557041664?s=20

Inquitus

breezy1985 wrote: »

Using the absolute worst possible polling from a Trump point of view how many states would he be predicted to win. I assume we have no chance of an FDR or Reagan style landslide do we ?

Yep if you take 538 Politics worst prediction of their top 100 simulation outcomes, from 100,000's of runs there are a good number over 400 EC Votes for Biden.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Kermit.de.frog

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The latest Rasmussen reports are out.

Their weekly Election Poll now has Biden at +12 - 52% to 40%.

Trump led by +1 two weeks ago.

Their daily "Presidential Approval" Poll now has Trump at 54% disapproval with 49% "Strongly disapproving".

Again , two weeks ago Trump was at 52% approval.

The gap between Strongly Approve and Strongly Disapprove has gone from +4 on September 18th to -15 today.

A 19 point negative swing in "Strong" opinion in about 3 weeks.

That's just huge , especially from Rasmussen who traditionally would be a few points more positive towards Trump and the GOP than the rest of the pollsters.

It gives real credence to the +12 and +16 polls from CNN and IPSOS in recent days.

And I presume that does not take in to account the most recent insane move by Trump to block further discussions on a stimulus meant to try and try and protect millions of livelihoods.

That's the one thing that could actually eat in to the core base of his support.

Personally I think it's over but these are not normal times.

droidus

Worst case scenarios for Trump would be a 371-418 loss (the latter includes Texas and SC). If the very worst of the national polls are right (15 points or so) you could be seeing Biden in the 440s. So not quite Reagan territory but still outrageous in the modern context.

Rjd2

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

pixelburp

Foxtrol wrote: »

Senate support is one thing but isn't numbers you highlighted in bold at least in part thanks to ridiculous levels gerrymandering by the GOP?

Look at GOP darling Dan Crenshaw's district. It would be deemed a farce in nearly any other functioning democracy.

https://twitter.com/nknash/status/1261060716557041664?s=20

American constituency maps are (often) an affront to democracy. And says a great deal that the very word "Gerrymandering" is itself American.

Itssoeasy

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

It’s going to right way but the Biden campaign need to continue like they are three points down and keep attacking. Hail Mary shots from beyond half court do go in at times. I’m not sure why I used basketball as the analogy but I did.

BonnieSituation

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

And while it likely is. To ease up now would be monumentally foolish.

This is stand on the neck territory. Make sure to keep the foot there just in case.

VinLieger

Foxtrol wrote: »

Senate support is one thing but isn't numbers you highlighted in bold at least in part thanks to ridiculous levels gerrymandering by the GOP?

Look at GOP darling Dan Crenshaw's district. It would be deemed a farce in nearly any other functioning democracy.

https://twitter.com/nknash/status/1261060716557041664?s=20

While the Democrats may not be as prolific in the amount of gerrymandering they have done they are also far from innocent and have done their fair share of it as well.

Also please dont anyone take this as an attempt to defend the GOP, just it needs to be pointed out that both sides do make use of the tactic, however the GOP definitely use it far more.

Infini

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113

It aint over till the fat lady sings, if these numbers are right they need to drive this home into the ground, kill this troll with fire etc. Can't let the guard down until after this election is over and were absolutely sure this idiot party and their troll president is ground into the dirt once and for all.

Quin_Dub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

And I presume that does not take in to account the most recent insane move by Trump to block further discussions on a stimulus meant to try and try and protect millions of livelihoods.

That's the one thing that could actually eat in to the core base of his support.

Personally I think it's over but these are not normal times.

The daily one might , the weekly one definitely doesn't

Watch now for a GOP Grandee , like McConnell , Grassley or similar coming out with "we need to vote strategically to ensure balance" messaging which will signal that they have given up on the WH are are trying to protect the Senate/

Manic Moran

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The daily one might , the weekly one definitely doesn't

Watch now for a GOP Grandee , like McConnell , Grassley or similar coming out with "we need to vote strategically to ensure balance" messaging which will signal that they have given up on the WH are are trying to protect the Senate/

That happened a month or two ago.

Brian?

breezy1985 wrote: »

Using the absolute worst possible polling from a Trump point of view how many states would he be predicted to win. I assume we have no chance of an FDR or Reagan style landslide do we ?

Worst case is Biden winning about 400 EC votes. Nowhere near FDR/Reagan levels. I think FDR only lost 1 state

eire4

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And while it likely is. To ease up now would be monumentally foolish.

This is stand on the neck territory. Make sure to keep the foot there just in case.

I would say also that at this point the key senate races come into play as well. If Biden is winning by such a big margin that you would think they would have a spill over effect in favour of Democrats in senate races as well.

Foxtrol

VinLieger wrote: »

While the Democrats may not be as prolific in the amount of gerrymandering they have done they are also far from innocent and have done their fair share of it as well.

Also please dont anyone take this as an attempt to defend the GOP, just it needs to be pointed out that both sides do make use of the tactic, however the GOP definitely use it far more.

Agreed that the democrats do it also, however they have recently passed legislation to stop it which the GOP refuse to even vote on it in the senate.

It is clear one party wants to end it (D) and the other is clinging to it (R), along with many other tools to stop voters getting what they want.

circular flexing

Rjd2 wrote: »

this is done bar a miracle massive voter suppression and election stealing effort[

Fixed that for you.

Rjd2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The bottom line is in 2016 , Trump won by ~70,000 votes across 3 mid-western States.

Hi squeaked in on the basis of Three main things.

1 - Hilary Clinton is universally disliked , across the board
2 - General frustration with "Politicians"
3 - Because of #1 & #2 , A fairly large element of "Give him a go , what's the worst that could happen"

Now though -

1 - Joe Biden just isn't disliked by anyone really , despite what the Trump team try to say - In this respect his "blandness" is a strength
2 - That still applies , but Trump is now "The Politician"
3 - Everybody knows exactly what they have to lose and they will vote accordingly and given that his approval rating has never gotten above 50% for his entire tenure that vote preference is not likely to be in his favour.

I got to stop using this term, but in those states he barely won, those people elected him because they were thought he was a populist, instead they got zombie reganism on steroids.

The term "drain the swamp" clearly resonated with many, but when elected he was the lapdog of swamp creatures Mitch and Paul Ryan.

Their was a fine article by the excellent Joan Coaston in vox the other month about it.

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/27/21375100/gop-trump-2020-conservatism-populism

Brian?

This is the most powerful ad yet by the Lincoln Project.

https://youtu.be/juSahA0muZA

6 weeks ago I was convinced Trump would win. He's managed to make every wrong turn possible in his campaign though. Luckily. I now think he's gone. The fat lady hasn't sung yet, but she's back stage drinking tea with honey and practising scales.

Tell me how

Brian? wrote: »

This is the most powerful ad yet by the Lincoln Project.

https://youtu.be/juSahA0muZA

6 weeks ago I was convinced Trump would win. He's managed to make every wrong turn possible in his campaign though. Luckily. I now think he's gone. The far ladt hasn't sung yet, but she's back stage drinking tea with honey and practising scales.

I read that posting wondering how and why are the Far Left going to sing.

Definitely a politics junkie.


On your point though, I thought at the start of the year that he was going to win. His handling of Covid and BLM was so disastrous I felt the tide had turned and then the Atlantic Story, the tax story, the debate and him (and his entire cohort) getting Covid I felt really put him behind a distant second in a 2 horse race.

But, I'm still nervous that if Biden was to get Covid that it could change everything.

Edit: That's a powerful ad alright.

Igotadose

Brian? wrote: »

This is the most powerful ad yet by the Lincoln Project.

https://youtu.be/juSahA0muZA

6 weeks ago I was convinced Trump would win. He's managed to make every wrong turn possible in his campaign though. Luckily. I now think he's gone. The far ladt hasn't sung yet, but she's back stage drinking tea with honey and practising scales.

Ehh on the ad. The "lord of the rings" reference made it a fail for me.

But, yeah, historic lead by Biden == no chance for Trump. I think Biden lands one of Florida or Texas, and flips all the 'swing' states back (PA, WI, MN.) Maybe one of the southern stalwarts too like SC or GA. So, whatever those numbers work out to be, high 300's I think.

An Ciarraioch

Some more straws in the wind from early voting requests for mail votes - Oklahoma and South Dakota are two of the safest states for Trump, yet in the first Democrats have requested more ballots, and in the second, Republicans are a minority when the Dem and independent requests are combined, which hardly augurs well for the GOP in the bellwether states:

https://electproject.github.io/early-vote-2020g/ok.html

https://electproject.github.io/early-vote-2020g/sd.html

Realt Dearg Sec

Fact is the Dems can't rest on these numbers, firstly because resting on polling numbers killed them before, secondly because polling numbers like these can breed voter complacency, third the voter suppression is ramping into high gear, and fourth and most important, winning the presidency but not taking the Senate would be only marginally better than losing the presidency. Winning it all is going to be vital to actually carry out an agenda that widens health care access, control greenhouse emissions, and rehabilitates the economy while getting covid under control. If you're trying to do that with Mitch still in control of the Senate you're a one legged man in an arse kicking competition. Republicans are, in fact, at their best when they don't have to do anything, just stop things. 

That's aside from the fact that an absolute neck stomping will be needed to quiet claims that the election isn't legitimate.

Water John

I agree that the Dems need to go all out, but I don't like the 'stomping on the neck' analogy used by some, for obvious reasons. No personal slight intended.

breezy1985

Igotadose wrote: »

Ehh on the ad. The "lord of the rings" reference made it a fail for me.

But, yeah, historic lead by Biden == no chance for Trump. I think Biden lands one of Florida or Texas, and flips all the 'swing' states back (PA, WI, MN.) Maybe one of the southern stalwarts too like SC or GA. So, whatever those numbers work out to be, high 300's I think.

Lord of the rings ?

everlast75

Another positive result from the notoriously Republican biased poll..

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313864229707866113?s=19

Trump's only solution to a problem is more Trump. But he can't campaign. Even the debate is in jeopardy. He isn't even ringing in Fox to mouth off.

Water John

Now you'll see GOP down the ballot scrambling for the rocks.

everlast75

Water John wrote: »

Now you'll see GOP down the ballot scrambling for the rocks.

Donations will fall away too the more it looks like he will lose..

Faugheen

Quinnipiac University poll (B+ on 538):

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678

Biden with an 11pt lead in Florida...

You’ll have to excuse my skepticism on that one.

Gbear

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It’s going to right way but the Biden campaign need to continue like they are three points down and keep attacking. Hail Mary shots from beyond half court do go in at times. I’m not sure why I used basketball as the analogy but I did.

It won't even require that. If they're working on the assumption that Trump will cheat if at all possible, which they should, because he will, then the polls aren't even that relevant. They're facing an uphill battle no matter what happens.

VinLieger wrote: »

While the Democrats may not be as prolific in the amount of gerrymandering they have done they are also far from innocent and have done their fair share of it as well.

Also please dont anyone take this as an attempt to defend the GOP, just it needs to be pointed out that both sides do make use of the tactic, however the GOP definitely use it far more.

There's a few dimensions of poltical ****ery, but you could split them between exceptional stuff, which is stuff that happens independent of the political system, so stuff like outright election fraud, voter intimidation, etc, and then there's stuff within the political system. Gerrymandering falls in the latter. It is the inevitable result of a system that has no independent oversight and rewards that behaviour.

We're not any better simply because we don't gerrymander. We've constructed a sytstem that prevents it entirely, but if it were possible, you'd see it here too.

What's instructive here isn't so much who's doing gerrymandering, because to a large extent, you should gerrymander if the system is set up to do so. However, where the Democrats are better is that there is a stronger push among them to take it off the table entirely.

Igotadose

breezy1985 wrote: »

Lord of the rings ?

"Ease your passing." Sorry no one would say that in the US. Gimli did dramatically sat that to an orc in The Two Towers if I remember correctly.