US Presidential Election 2020

Water John

They could tie on 269, I think because to Pence the VP being head of the Senate, Trump remains. Biden needs 270.

droidus

VinLieger wrote: »

Nice thanks for those, just to be clear the 44 million mail in votes have been received correct?

Yup. Updates are here for anyone who isnt refreshing every hour:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Nearly 100,000 new votes since that last post. i think this will hit at least 100 million before election day.

dark crystal

Water John wrote: »

They could tie on 269, I think because to Pence the VP being head of the Senate, Trump remains. Biden needs 270.

Found the answer here:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/21/what-happens-if-trump-and-biden-tie-in-the-electoral-college/

The Constitution is pretty clear on how this plays out. If there is no winner in the Electoral College, Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3 states that the decision goes to the House of Representatives while the Senate picks the vice president. But the voting in the House is different from the Senate. In the vote for vice president, each Senator has one vote. But in the House each state has only one vote for president—regardless of its size—and a presidential candidate needs 26 states to win.

Quin_Dub

dark crystal wrote: »

Found the answer here:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/21/what-happens-if-trump-and-biden-tie-in-the-electoral-college/

Correct and despite the Democrats having a healthy majority in the house , the GOP actually lead 26-24 in a state by state count.

So the dozens of Democrat House reps from California are worthless here , they get 1 vote , exactly the same as Liz Chaney does as the sole House rep from Wyoming.

Water John

That gives the GOP a majority in both Houses TMK.

dark crystal

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Correct and despite the Democrats having a healthy majority in the house , the GOP actually lead 26-24 in a state by state count.

So the dozens of Democrat House reps from California are worthless here , they get 1 vote , exactly the same as Liz Chaney does as the sole House rep from Wyoming.

Nightmare scenario indeed.

hirondelle

droidus wrote: »

Yup. Updates are here for anyone who isnt refreshing every hour:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Nearly 100,000 new votes since that last post. i think this will hit at least 100 million before election day.

I Wikied as I couldn't recall- 130 million votes were cast in total for Clinton and Trump (with a surprising to me 6 million votes for the minor candidates). That would be some early voting!

I was also amazed to see that Trump spent $300 million and Clinton spent a staggering $640 million on their campaigns- a reminder if Biden needs it that having a war chest does not win a war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

Quin_Dub

hirondelle wrote: »

I Wikied as I couldn't recall- 130 million votes were cast in total for Clinton and Trump (with a surprising to me 6 million votes for the minor candidates). That would be some early voting!

I was also amazed to see that Trump spent $300 million and Clinton spent a staggering $640 million on their campaigns- a reminder if Biden needs it that having a war chest does not win a war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election

Still don't know how much the massive early voting will convert into a higher final tally.

It's definitely going to be higher than in 2016 , but not quite sure by how much.

There will be far fewer votes cast on election day than before I suspect, so in the final analysis it'll be a few percent up , but we're not going to see 10's of millions of extra votes cast overall.

droidus

droidus wrote: »

Yup. Updates are here for anyone who isnt refreshing every hour:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Nearly 100,000 new votes since that last post. i think this will hit at least 100 million before election day.

Nearly another 200,000 in the last 25 minutes. Crazy.

Total Early Votes: 66,942,790

DK224

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Still don't know how much the massive early voting will convert into a higher final tally.

It's definitely going to be higher than in 2016 , but not quite sure by how much.

There will be far fewer votes cast on election day than before I suspect, so in the final analysis it'll be a few percent up , but we're not going to see 10's of millions of extra votes cast overall.

A large majority of Trumps base plans to vote on Election Day due to his constant rhetoric about mail in voting.

Florida's early Dem turnout figures alone don't look to have enough of a cushion to withstand the large projected Trump in person vote on Election Day.

LuckyLloyd

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There’s a practical limit to what’s possible here imo, from the Trump perspective. If he loses the popular vote by 4% but there’s still a weird path via courts and state legislatures stopping vote counts that grant him a “win” in multiple swing states I think the GOP as a whole will not pursue it.

They robbed Florida in 2000 but that was within a couple of thousand votes either way. It’s a stretch to try and do that when you’re getting pummelled all over and the electorate *knows* what it voted for. It’s not worth it.

A 4% loss would be pretty much a toss-up for the electoral college. Biden needs at least a 6% win to avoid any messing around, probably more like 8%.

droidus

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Still don't know how much the massive early voting will convert into a higher final tally.

It's definitely going to be higher than in 2016 , but not quite sure by how much.

There will be far fewer votes cast on election day than before I suspect, so in the final analysis it'll be a few percent up , but we're not going to see 10's of millions of extra votes cast overall.

Election day will be smaller than usual, but the consensus seems to be for something approaching record turnout. 150 million doesn't seem out of the realms of possibility.

Overheal

Water John wrote: »

They could tie on 269, I think because to Pence the VP being head of the Senate, Trump remains. Biden needs 270.

Procedural possibility but in this race that outcome is <1 in 100 chance of happening if you go by the FiveThirtyEight forecasting.

Overheal

droidus wrote: »

Yup. Updates are here for anyone who isnt refreshing every hour:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Nearly 100,000 new votes since that last post. i think this will hit at least 100 million before election day.

Estimate I heard is 85 million before Tuesday.

VinLieger

Im just trying to get my head around all of the pieces for election day, is the reason for the potential delay in results due to the mail in ballots being counted by hand versus machine/electronically?

EltonJohn69

Will there be any indication of who might win on Tuesday night (Irish time) ???

eire4

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Will there be any indication of who might win on Tuesday night (Irish time) ???

Unlikely we are ahead time wise although I am expecting a Democratic landslide so who knows it may be obvious although not official fairly quickly. Should know when you get up Wednesday morning though for sure.

Itssoeasy

eire4 wrote: »

Unlikely we are ahead time wise although I am expecting a Democratic landslide so who knows it may be obvious although not official fairly quickly. Should know when you get up Wednesday morning though for sure.

Well some states are a locked in and going what joe Scarborough was saying that after 2000 and that mess that the process is very good in Florida so he was saying by 9pm their time(2am our time) they should know Florida or have a good idea. I think there’s too much being made about delays in results. Yes some states have said to not expect a result on election night but it’s not widespread chaos either. But joe Biden needs to get a big win to stop the messing that seems like trump is just waiting to use.

droidus

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Will there be any indication of who might win on Tuesday night (Irish time) ???

Florida should be reporting between 1-2am. If Biden wins it then it's all over.

EltonJohn69

I think I can do 2am... no sleep for work but need to see this out

Overheal

NBC now models Texas as a toss-up state and Arizona is now Democrat-Leaning

https://www.mediaite.com/news/just-in-nbc-news-predicts-texas-moving-toward-biden/?fbclid=IwAR04Qq4Pcq3sx7tPBYzOVAlf0JamEYtVynDY8Hzw56O8N_ZVj6NkEU_8F1w

edit: nvm shared last page, but it's getting attention.

dark crystal

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

I think I can do 2am... no sleep for work but need to see this out

I've booked the 4th off work. Learned the hard way after 2016 :pac:

ArmaniJeanss

Is there a good historic reason for 'First Tuesday in November'? Seems a bit archaic. Thursday or Friday would be much palatable for staying up late.

branie2

One more week to go

Overheal

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Is there a good historic reason for 'First Tuesday in November'? Seems a bit archaic. Thursday or Friday would be much palatable for staying up late.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R46413.pdf

Foxtrol

VinLieger wrote: »

Im just trying to get my head around all of the pieces for election day, is the reason for the potential delay in results due to the mail in ballots being counted by hand versus machine/electronically?

In some states (mostly GOP run purple states like PA) they aren't allowed to touch the mail votes until election day. These mail votes have signatures that have to be matched to records and multiple layers of envelopes.

They can't even start counting those votes until that process has gone through and then many of these states have purposely underfunded their count teams so they don't have the man power for the increased votes due to COVID.

GOP are purposefully causing the delays and then want to use the delays to throw out votes.

letowski

Arizona have pre Election Day counting so look for that state to be one of the earliest called. Ohio is usually one of the earlier states called unlike a lot of the upper mid west states.

Overheal

Didn't think of that letowski.

The good thing is if Democrats get the Congress and Presidency they will have a Democracy Reform mandate. It is in their platform:

https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/restoring-and-strengthening-our-democracy/

RESTORING AND STRENGTHENING OUR DEMOCRACY
Our government and our elections are supposed to reflect the interests of the American people, not only the wealthiest few and the biggest corporations. Democrats will fight to restore and protect Americans’ fundamental right to vote, including by aggressively pushing back against Republican governors, legislatures, and state officials who have disenfranchised people of color, young people, low-income people, and people with disabilities. And we will strictly enforce ethics laws and improve transparency across the federal government in order to rebuild trust with the American people, and will protect civil servants and whistleblowers from political retribution.

Protecting and Enforcing Voting Rights
Democrats are committed to the sacred principle of “one person, one vote”—and we will fight to achieve that principle for every citizen, regardless of race, income, disability status, geography, or English language proficiency. We stand united against the determined Republican campaign to disenfranchise voters through onerous voter ID laws, unconstitutional and excessive purges of the voter rolls, and closures of polling places in low-income neighborhoods, on college campuses, and in communities of color. Americans should never have to wait in hours-long lines to exercise their voting rights.

Democrats will strengthen our democracy by guaranteeing that every American’s vote is protected. We will make it a priority to pass legislation that restores and strengthens the Voting Rights Act, and ensure the Department of Justice challenges state laws that make it harder for Americans to vote. We will make voting easier and more accessible for all Americans by supporting automatic voter registration, same-day voter registration, early voting, and universal vote-from-home and vote-by-mail options.

Democrats believe Election Day should be a national holiday, in celebration of our democratic institutions and to make it easier for everyone to cast their ballot. Democrats recognize that unions, community groups, faith organizations and other civic organizations are critical to facilitating registration, encouraging voting, and protecting voter rights.

We will fully implement the Help America Vote Act and require that polling places and elections are accessible for people with disabilities, and work to ensure that returning citizens have their voting rights restored upon release from jail or prison without the additional hurdle of having to pay fines and fees in order to vote. Democrats will also fight for emergency funding for states to help make vote-from-home and vote-by-mail universally available during the pandemic, while ensuring that all jurisdictions take steps to ensure continued meaningful, safe opportunities to vote in person. We recognize that the United States Postal Service is more than ever a critical component to our democracy and must be supported to guarantee timely and efficient delivery and return of vote by mail ballots. Election officials must be provided with sufficient time after election day to process, count, and audit all ballots.

We must give voters the confidence that their ballot was counted as cast by supporting mandatory, statistically meaningful post-election audits and full transparency of all election results and data. To ensure every eligible ballot is counted, vote by mail voters must be informed of and provided a meaningful opportunity to fix any problem with their ballot. A professional and well-trained election workforce is critical to the administration of elections, we support ongoing federal and state funding for local elections offices.

Gerrymandering distorts our democracy, and Democrats will enact measures to end partisan gerrymandering in federal elections. Efforts to redraw legislative districts following the 2020 Census must be guided by transparency and public input, while reducing the power of partisan actors, so that maps reflect the will of voters, fairly represent communities of color, and provide for competitive races. We will protect the integrity of the decennial Census from political interference, including ensuring that apportionment and redistricting be based on total population counts, and also ensure the Census Bureau is equipped to conduct cost-effective, timely, and accurate surveys. Democrats will maintain the legal requirement for Census participation and increase resources to reduce undercounts of communities of color, immigrants, LGBTQ+ people, people with disabilities, rural and low-income populations, and young children that have long plagued the decennial Census. We will also direct the Census Bureau to study whether counting the prison population where they are incarcerated creates inequitable outcomes in state or federal representation or funding allocations.

Democrats will increase investments to help state and local governments upgrade election technology, including cybersecurity technology, and ensure that election technology is accessible for people with disabilities. Democrats will also increase oversight of private election vendors to ensure voting systems are secure and worthy of voters’ trust. We will not tolerate election interference and will protect the integrity of our elections from all enemies, foreign and domestic.

Reforming the Broken Campaign Finance System
Democrats believe that the interests and the voices of the American people should determine our elections. Money is not speech, and corporations are not people. Democrats will fight to pass a Constitutional amendment that will go beyond merely overturning Citizens United and related decisions like Buckley v. Valeo by eliminating all private financing from federal elections.

In the meantime, Democrats will work with Congress on legislation to strengthen the public funding system by matching small-dollar donations for all federal candidates, crack down on foreign nationals who try to influence elections, and ensure that super PACs are wholly independent of campaigns and political parties. We will bring an end to “dark money” by requiring full disclosure of contributors to any group that advocates for or against candidates, and bar 501(c)(4) organizations from spending money on elections. Democrats will ban corporate PACs from donating to candidates and bar lobbyists from donating, fundraising, or bundling for anyone they lobby.

Building an Effective, Transparent Federal Government
Every federal employee swears an oath to support and defend the Constitution. It is a sacred promise to the American people—that federal workers, both civil servants and political appointees, will put the interests of the many ahead of their own personal concerns. President Trump and his Administration have abused the trust between the American people and their government—including by denigrating civil servants, directing federal grants and contracts toward their cronies and political donors, inappropriately interfering with federal investigations and firing independent watchdogs, retaliating against whistleblowers, failing to share information as required with Congress, and, most nefariously, violating the law by withholding congressionally appropriated funds in an attempt to get a foreign government to interfere in America’s elections.

Democrats will establish a commission on federal ethics to aggressively enforce and strengthen federal ethics laws, including rules around personal financial disclosures for Executive Branch officials, and make campaign finance, financial disclosure, and lobbying disclosure filings easier for the public to access and understand. We support requiring all candidates for federal office, including presidential candidates, to publicly disclose at least 10 years of tax returns.

The American people deserve assurances that their elected officials and federal appointees work for them, not for special interests. Democrats will re-establish merit-based federal contracting decisions and prohibit political appointees, at the White House or in agency leadership, from interfering in grantmaking. We will restore and re-empower independent inspectors general across the federal government and work to strengthen whistleblower protections to fully protect federal employees from retaliation. And we will ban lobbying by foreign governments and significantly lower the threshold for having to register as a federal lobbyist in order to close loopholes that allow special interests to secretly influence policymaking in Congress and across the federal government.

Democrats condemn President Trump’s determination to sow chaos and division by inappropriately deploying federal agents to American cities, where too many have used egregious tactics against peaceful protestors. We know federal agents can ably protect federal property while also clearly displaying badges, insignias, and identifying markings; without detaining Americans in undisclosed locations without cause; and without brutally attacking peaceful protestors. Democrats are committed to following the rule of law and will uphold the First Amendment right to peaceably assemble.

The Republican Party has packed our federal courts with unqualified, partisan judges who consistently rule for corporations, the wealthy, and Republican interests. They have undermined the legitimacy of our courts through an anti-democratic, win-at-all costs campaign that includes blocking a Democratic president from appointing a justice to the Supreme Court and obstructing dozens of diverse lower-court nominees. The Democratic Party recognizes the need for structural court reforms to increase transparency and accountability.

Now more than ever, federal agencies need experts on staff who know how to use science, evidence, data, and facts to guide decision-making on behalf of the American people. As the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrates, our country needs the best experts working within government to protect and improve the lives of all Americans. Democrats support the recruitment of people with expertise in science, social science, technology, and innovation to jobs in public service to help solve our nation’s most pressing challenges. To ensure that federal funds are invested as effectively and efficiently as possible, the federal government should be using the best available evidence when making budget and spending decisions. Democrats will ensure federal data collection and analysis is adequately funded and designed to allow for disaggregation by race, gender, LGBTQ+ status, geography, disability status, and other important variables, so that disparities can be better understood and addressed. Democrats support the widespread use of strategies to promote evidence-based policymaking, including more robust evaluations of tax expenditures and allocating funds for program evaluation, to help ensure the American people are receiving the most productive, efficient services from our federal government.

Making Washington, D.C. the 51st State
It’s time to stop treating the more than 700,000 people who live in our nation’s capital as second-class citizens. The residents of Washington, D.C. pay more per capita in federal income taxes than any state in the country—and more in total federal income tax than 22 states—and yet the District has zero voting representatives in the U.S. Congress. The Congress retains broad power to override budget decisions made by democratically elected officials in Washington, D.C. And as was made shockingly clear to the American people this year, under current law, Washington, D.C. does not have control over its own National Guard units and can be occupied by military forces at the President’s whim. The citizens of Washington, D.C.—a majority of whom are people of color—voted overwhelmingly in favor of statehood in a 2016 referendum and have ratified a state constitution. Democrats unequivocally support statehood for Washington, D.C., so the citizens of the District can at last have full and equal representation in Congress and the rights of self-determination.

Guaranteeing Self-Determination for Puerto Rico
The people of Puerto Rico deserve self-determination on the issue of status.

Democrats are committed to helping the island rebuild and recover from the devastation wrought by Hurricanes Irma and Maria and the recent earthquakes, and will mobilize resources across the federal government to address the island’s disparities in energy, infrastructure, health care, education, housing, agriculture, employment, and disaster preparedness. Disaster response in Puerto Rico must be given the same priority and be conducted on the same basis as federal responses to natural disasters elsewhere in the United States. We will forgive disaster relief loans issued to Puerto Rican municipalities following Hurricanes Irma and Maria to help expedite the island’s economic recovery.

The unequal treatment of Puerto Rico’s residents must end. We will invest in the island’s future through economic development initiatives, increased education funding, construction of affordable housing, and innovative energy and climate resilience programs. Democrats support accelerating access to disaster recovery funds so the island can improve its infrastructure and transform itself into one of the fastest-growing, most prosperous parts of the United States. We also believe Puerto Rico should be treated equally with respect to federal programs, including Medicaid, SNAP, and the Child Tax Credit.

Bankruptcy blocks Puerto Rico’s growth and recovery. Democrats will help restructure and provide relief from Puerto Rico’s remaining debt burden and work with the government of Puerto Rico to accelerate progress in order to dissolve the Financial Oversight and Management Board.

Supporting the U.S. Territories
Democrats recognize and honor the contributions and sacrifices made in service of our country by the Americans living in the territories of Guam, American Samoa, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The people of the U.S. territories have played a vital role in American democracy for more than 120 years, and have for too long been met with unequal treatment by the federal government. We support establishing a Congressional task force to gather findings on voting rights in the territories, and recommend changes to Congress to allow for the full and equal voting rights of U.S. citizens who are residents of the territories in federal elections, and for full and equal voting representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. The American citizens of the U.S. territories should have the right to vote for President of the United States. Democrats will support self-determination for the people of the U.S territories, including respecting their right to decide their future status in a fair, binding, and equitable manner.

The U.S. Virgin Islands suffered significant impacts as a result of Hurricanes Irma and Maria, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and American Samoa have suffered damages as a result of intensifying Pacific typhoons and cyclones. Democrats will support investments to help the U.S. territories recover from recent natural disasters and build increased resilience to the impacts of climate change, including by expanding access to clean, affordable, reliable energy and water systems. We will mobilize resources to address disparities in agriculture, economic development, education, employment, energy, health care, housing, and infrastructure in the U.S. territories to help the territories diversify their economies and recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

We will improve health care access and affordability and support policies to address health disparities in the U.S. territories. We believe the territories should be treated equally with respect to important federal programs, including the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid, SNAP, and the Child Tax Credit, that reduce poverty and support working families. And Democrats commit to ensuring veterans from the U.S. territories have access to timely and quality health care and other benefits through the VA.

Democrats will continue to work with the people of Guam to properly memorialize residents who suffered unspeakable harm as a result of their U.S. nationality during the Imperial Japanese occupation of Guam during World War II. We recognize the increasing demands placed on state and territorial governments by migration under the Compacts of Free Association (COFA), and will explore mechanisms for increasing reimbursement of costs absorbed by Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Hawaii. And Democrats will restore Medicaid eligibility for migrants under COFA who are legally residing, working, and studying in the United States, but who were inadvertently left out of health care legislation.

Strengthening the U.S. Postal Service
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) is the world’s most efficient mail carrier, and Democrats are wholly committed to supporting a public USPS. We will fight all efforts to privatize the USPS and will work to ensure the USPS is financially sustainable, including by repealing the mandate that the agency “pre-fund” retiree health costs. Democrats will protect the Postal Service’s universal service obligation as a core American value and maintain six-day and doorstep mail delivery, which is a lifeline for rural Americans. And we will work to restore service to appropriate levels, including overnight delivery of first-class mail and periodicals within the same metropolitan area, maintaining six-day and door-to door delivery, and appointing members to the Board of Governors and the Postal Regulatory Commission who champion a strong public Postal Service. We will also support new revenue streams for the USPS, including allowing secure shipping of alcoholic beverages by mail and exploring options to enable unbanked and underbanked Americans to access financial services through the Postal Service.

Foxtrol

letowski wrote: »

Arizona have pre Election Day counting so look for that state to be one of the earliest called. Ohio is usually one of the earlier states called unlike a lot of the upper mid west states.

Arizona and Florida are funny ones, they have great mail voting and pre election counting due to their older population and how that group trended to vote for the GOP for years.

It will be interesting if that group turns for a few cycles whether mail voting will be made more difficult in those states also.

Overheal

Speaking of mandates, Trump has missed his shot to have an economic mandate from the voters. Same with a healthcare plan I might add.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/522820-kudlow-doesnt-expect-trump-to-release-detailed-economic-plan-before-election?fbclid=IwAR01ttFl9UY0ZpjbIIsV_hmIP7Vy2DWLWoOoCV0nYmvEax16WyRmzMRgjI8

Kudlow announced Trump's economic plan will not be released before the election.

everlast75

An idea of where the GOP deem important

https://twitter.com/WakeUp2Politics/status/1321166602465890307?s=19

Rjd2

Overheal wrote: »

Speaking of mandates, Trump has missed his shot to have an economic mandate from the voters. Same with a healthcare plan I might add.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/522820-kudlow-doesnt-expect-trump-to-release-detailed-economic-plan-before-election?fbclid=IwAR01ttFl9UY0ZpjbIIsV_hmIP7Vy2DWLWoOoCV0nYmvEax16WyRmzMRgjI8

Kudlow announced Trump's economic plan will not be released before the election.

If trump loses their will be a million takes about why he did and some will be bull****, but he surrounding himself by Zombie Reganism libertarian "muh balanced budget" hacks is very high up their.

On Florida, Trump is punting that its somewhat in the bag and moving to the rust belt. Its a very high risk move, but when cash strapped you have to do such things, we shall soon enough if it worked.

everlast75

Re - the question of when we will know the result, here is a very handy tweet i found which explains it all quite well..


https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1321108695372177408?s=09

Water John

Foxtrol wrote: »

Arizona and Florida are funny ones, they have great mail voting and pre election counting due to their older population and how that group trended to vote for the GOP for years.

It will be interesting if that group turns for a few cycles whether mail voting will be made more difficult in those states also.

Good art here on AZ and how it's changing:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/26/maricopa-county-phoenix-donald-trump-2020

EltonJohn69

Where did all the money go ?

briany

Overheal wrote: »

Speaking of mandates, Trump has missed his shot to have an economic mandate from the voters. Same with a healthcare plan I might add.

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/522820-kudlow-doesnt-expect-trump-to-release-detailed-economic-plan-before-election?fbclid=IwAR01ttFl9UY0ZpjbIIsV_hmIP7Vy2DWLWoOoCV0nYmvEax16WyRmzMRgjI8

Kudlow announced Trump's economic plan will not be released before the election.

What is the reasoning behind that, I wonder? Do Trump and his staff think that's the smarter electoral play, were they genuinely so ignorant/lazy not to bother drafting up a concrete document, or do they just have nothing to offer?

You have to think America can do better than a guy who says he has the best plans, and everything will be better, but not for a couple of weeks, and those couple of weeks are, quite conveniently, perched on a floating timeline.

Much like the Covid vaccine Trump's been promising, it's all been a couple of weeks away for months.

Overheal

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Where did all the money go ?

"I'm under audit?"

or

'Ah well, you know, it's all tied up in property investments, hedge funds, stocks, offshore rainy day accounts in countries that don't extradite. You know, business stuff.'

briany wrote: »

What is the reasoning behind that, I wonder? Do Trump and his staff think that's the smarter electoral play, were they genuinely so ignorant/lazy not to bother drafting up a concrete document, or do they just have nothing to offer?

You have to think America can do better than a guy who says he has the best plans, and everything will be better, but not for a couple of weeks, and those couple of weeks are, quite conveniently, perched on a floating timeline.

Much like the Covid vaccine Trump's been promising, it's all been a couple of weeks away for months.

It's the more apt approach if you're an autocrat. The GOP platform is this year, essentially, to back up Trump. With no mandates from voters and the only mandate from the GOP being we will do what Trump wants, it's - it's a pure reflection of what type of governing they plan to do. And have done.

An Ciarraioch

We have now reached the point where 50% of the 2016 electorate have already voted - likely to reach 70% before Election Day itself?

EltonJohn69

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

We have now reached the point where 50% of the 2016 electorate have already voted - likely to reach 70% before Election Day itself?

Trump will have any unfavourable ballots shredded.

Rjd2

briany wrote: »

What is the reasoning behind that, I wonder? Do Trump and his staff think that's the smarter electoral play, were they genuinely so ignorant/lazy not to bother drafting up a concrete document, or do they just have nothing to offer?

Have you never heard of Zombie Reganism?

Trump has surrounded himself with people who are disciples of it.

That's your answer.

Overheal

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Trump will have any unfavourable ballots shredded.

Please don't even joke

Rjd2

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

Where did all the money go ?

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/20/how-the-trump-campaign-lost-its-cash-advantage/

An article breaking it down.

ther questionable expenditures by Trump and the RNC that are included in campaign finance disclosures:

— Nearly $100,000 spent on copies of Donald Trump Jr.’s book “Triggered,” which helped propel it to the top of the New York Times bestsellers list.

— Over $7.4 million spent at Trump-branded properties since 2017.

— At least $35.2 million spent on Trump merchandise.

— $38.7 million in legal and “compliance” fees. In addition to tapping the RNC and his campaign to pay legal costs during his impeachment proceedings, Trump has also relied on his political operation to cover legal costs for some aides.

— At least $14.1 million spent on the Republican National Convention. The event was supposed to have been held in Charlotte, North Carolina, but Trump relocated it to Jacksonville, Florida, after a dispute with North Carolina’s Democratic governor over coronavirus safety measures. The Florida event was ultimately cancelled, as well, with a mostly online convention taking its place.

— $912,000 spent on ads that ran on the personal Facebook pages of Parscale and Trump spokesperson Katrina Pierson.

— A $250,000 ad run during Game 7 of the 2019 World Series, which came after Trump was booed by spectators when he attended Game 5.

— At least $218,000 for Trump surrogates to travel aboard private jets provided by campaign donors.

— $1.6 million on TV ads in the Washington, D.C., media market, an overwhelmingly Democratic area where Trump has little chance of winning but where he is a regular TV watcher.

Instead of giving more to Trump, some supporters are exploring their options.

Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson and his wife, Miriam, recently donated $75 million to Preserve America, a new pro-Trump super political action committee that is not controlled by Trump World political operatives.

One of the reasons the group was founded in August is because there is deep distrust among some GOP donors that the existing pro-Trump organizations would spend the money wisely, according to a Republican strategist with direct knowledge of the matter. The strategist spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions with donors.

mm_surf

Overheal wrote: »

Please don't even joke

For early in-person voters, ballots are already "in the machines", so shennanigans cant be done.

In MO, anyway. Presume in person is tge sane across all states. Mail-ins may be handled differently due to state legislation.

M.

Water John

They've passed 50% of the total who voted in 2016 already, over 69M.

Itssoeasy

NBC has moved Texas to a toss up for the presidential election. I mean that’s something given than since the mid 1960s when the flipping of states from the democrats winning states in the south to republicans winning them most of the time since then with a few exceptions and since 1980 it’s not even been close even if Clinton got close in 1992 and 1996. The state of Texas which to me is GOP heartland if not going to flip blue is close enough that a national network is confident enough to call it a toss up state is nuts.

briany

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

According to this, most states offer some form of early in-person voting. You'd think most people in those states who intend to vote in person wouldn't bother waiting until election day itself as that time might be inconvenient and that election day wouldn't be a particularly standout day in terms of numbers of people waiting to cast their ballots.

The reason I bring it up is because I've heard about this idea of a late surge in pro-Trump ballots, but as they're more likely to vote in-person, they're also as free to avail of early voting (in applicable states) as anyone else. Late surge implies to me that they would cast their ballots on election day, but again if they can vote early in person, I don't see why they wouldn't be doing that as much as those voting for Biden.

Overheal

The thing is, of the 48.5% of registered Democrats and ~28% of registered Republicans whom have already voted, a significant number of those Republicans will be RVAT or Lincoln Project voters and the Republican groups that have endorsed Biden.

So Texas flipping blue isn't that crazy, Texas isn't just GOP heartland it's Neocon heartland, and they and Trump do not get along superbly well when the chips are down.

TomOnBoard

droidus wrote: »

Florida should be reporting between 1-2am. If Biden wins it then it's all over.

While you may be correct that Biden may win FL, I don't believe that FL will have anything like a result by 1-2 AM Irish time. At that point, early in-person votes as well as many maIl-in votes may have been counted, but the in-person votes on the day will not. If you remember 2016, Miami-Dade and Broward counties were waaaay late in reporting. I'd expect Biden will be well ahead at @ 1-2 AM Irish time, but the ongoing counts will increasingly favour Trump IMO. If Trump is doing better than expected at 1-2 AM, its gonna be squeaky bum time for the Biden camp.

Exit polls and network pundit projections are different animals and they may well call it differently, but those wont be results.

Edit: other 'tossup' states are going to be equally uncertain at 1-2 AM Irish time:

IOWA is an interesting one in that they will count mail-in votes received up to Nov 9, so that certainly can't be called on the night.
North Carolina allows ballots arriving up to Nov 12, and OHIO allows up to Nov 13 to be counted, so depending on how late voters have left it, and on how much DeJoy has broken the USPS system, some or many ballots will still be in play for more than a week after the election.
Georgia is also going to take days to report due to the level of absentee ballots needing counting.

These are just some examples in some of the 'tossup' states. Siimilar caveats can be applied to those states considered to be lean Dem or lean Rep.

So, on balance, I foresee a veeeerrry long haul post-election until we have a complete result. And that's not even considering legal shenannigans that may ensue.... Just get yer sleep while ya can, and load up on the beer and popcorn!! Thank God we'll have something to occupy us in Level 5 Lockdown!!!

Water John

It will be very interesting how the voting in each county unfolds in diff states. The lady in charge of one of those counties you name has retired. It's spotting the trends compared to 2016 and knowing the variables that particularly apply in each case.

Would a person be better off giving the first few hours a miss and tuning in around 2 am Irish time?

TomOnBoard

Water John wrote: »

It will be very interesting how the voting in each county unfolds in diff states. The lady in charge of one of those counties you name has retired. It's spotting the trends compared to 2016 and knowing the variables that particularly apply in each case.

Would a person be better off giving the first few hours a miss and tuning in around 2 am Irish time?

I'd say it'll be one of the most unusual counts we'll ever see in US elections. So, I've booked the big TV for the entire duration. I've been getting Her Indoors to get used to watching her soaps on a 8 inch tablet for weeks now in anticipation. I reckon she'll be ready by Nov 3... ;-)