US Presidential Election 2020

eire4

Deleted User wrote: »

Also I'll repeat, why would anyone feel the need to fix New York....

They don't. It is not unusual for the parties to send filled in sample ballots out to voters as part of their election postal advertising to try and persuade them to come on out and vote.

froog

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I did it there and gave both candidates all their likely wins and threw Trump OH and PA (267) and Biden AZ (271).

It really highlights just how tough it's going to be for Trump.

the way i see it, if biden wins a single battleground state, trump is done. biden winning one of those validates the polls (and maybe even shows he's undercounted) and hence he stomps all over the place.

duploelabs

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

By what exactly? I see nothing to suggest the reporter is being dishonest.


https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1322208696311652356

I've said before Pete, seriously who are you trying to convince? If you're taken in by this stuff, are you really definite it was the visa people calling you the other day?

Sierra Oscar

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

TomOnBoard

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

Michael Moore may be closer to the truth than he's given credit for..

It ain't over 'til it's over...

Rjd2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

What worries me about the polls is the 'shy Tory' factor.

Four years ago Clinton was seen as unlikeable and Trump was able to ride the 'I'm not a politician' shtick to great effect. Someone voting Trump back then wouldn't have had any qualms about revealing that he had their vote. This time, however, Biden isn't seen as unlikeable as her, while Trump has become taboo with the statements he's made. Most of his base aren't shy about supporting him with the MAGA hats and whatnot, but I worry that there is still a significant chunk of voters who are more tight-lipped about their intentions. A part of the electorate who are telling pollsters, friends, co-workers and so on that they won't be voting for Trump who will, on voting day, go ahead and do precisely that.

I get that.

I have now got used to when I see polls give a few extra points to Trump and take some away from Biden, but even doing that its very hard for Trump next week have shown.

He may do it, but we must remember those swing states he won last time round , he did by the skin of his teeth against a much more unpopular candidate and in at time where people were yearning for the unpredictable .

Things have changed for so many reasons in 2020.

Also must remember polling companies have worked very hard to catch the shy Trumper this time round while the Dem base unlike last time won't sit this out as 2018 mid terms and the recent immense early voting numbers.

Water John

538 have pushed Trump out to a 1 in 10 chance and Biden almost 9 in 10 of winning.

Overheal

United States Postal Police have responded to a call that a Miami Dade post office has been hoarding mail.

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322267463799738368?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322301574891393030?s=20

Not sure if there are ballots shown here but the station is clearly dysfunctional.

Brussels Sprout

Only just spotted that there was an ABC News / Washington Post poll (One of 538's very few A+ rated pollsters) of Wisconsin 3 days ago that showed Biden up by 17 points :eek:

Now obviously that can't be accurate but it does make me thing of something I heard in a 538 podcast recently. They said that if polling companies are good then every so often they should be publishing a real outlier of a poll. These will come along, every now and again as a quirk of the sampling process.
As a pollster, the natural inclination when this happens, is to put their thumb on the scale and smooth out these extreme results to something that is in more line with the norm. This is a phenomenon known as 'herding' and apparently it occurs more and more frequently as the elections get nearer and a consensus develops.

The danger with herding is that if it takes hold amongst all of the pollsters then changes in the race can be missed entirely. I believe this was given as the cause of the large polling miss in the last Australian general election.


TLDR: The pollsters employed by ABC News / Washington Post probably aren't cooking the books.

Water John

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Only just spotted that there was an ABC News / Washington Post poll (One of 538's very few A+ rated pollsters) of Wisconsin 3 days ago that showed Biden up by 17 points :eek:

Now obviously that can't be accurate but it does make me thing of something I heard in a 538 podcast recently. They said that if polling companies are good then every so often they should be publishing a real outlier of a poll. These will come along, every now and again as a quirk of the sampling process.
As a pollster, the natural inclination when this happens, is to put their thumb on the scale and smooth out these extreme results to something that is in more line with the norm. This is a phenomenon known as 'herding' and apparently it occurs more and more frequently as the elections get nearer and a consensus develops.

The danger with herding is that if it takes hold amongst all of the pollsters then changes in the race can be missed entirely. I believe this was given as the cause of the large polling miss in the last Australian general election.


TLDR: The pollsters employed by ABC News / Washington Post probably aren't cooking the books.

And Trafalgar put it at evens. Them and Ramussen have a Rep bias in their numbers. See a guy from Traflagar last night forecasting that Trump would win.

letowski

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

Yeah, there is lower and tightening ballots returned in Miami Dade and Duval (Jacksonville) county. Be worth keeping an eye on, Barack Obama was sent down there yesterday to drum up support. But that's definitely a worry in the Biden camp.

At the same time, I wouldn't read too much into Early voting/absentee ballots just yet. If the EVAB independent ballots break in the ratio polls expect, Biden will have a marginally favorably chance of winning. It's also possible that with high EVAB, that it could cannibalize the GOP margin on election day voting.

Nevertheless, all indications are that Florida is going to be very close (hot take!).

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

I mean, look at the map against that itinerary

IDC if you have your own jet, that's nuts. But I imagine it will be not much more than tarmac appearances.

Sure enough his 3rd rally today was on the tarmac, and is being regarded as one of the shortest Trump rallies to date clocking in at just 21 minutes.

https://twitter.com/spettypi/status/1322322091073523713?s=20

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/trump-holds-shorter-than-usual-rally-in-mn-after-publicly-railing-against-state-officials-limiting-crowd-size/

Quantity < Quality, Donald.

I guess it's a bit unfair of him to have to solo rally against Obama, Biden, Harris, and other surrogates. But, that'll happen when you alienate huge swaths of your whole party.

y0ssar1an22

Overheal wrote: »

United States Postal Police have responded to a call that a Miami Dade post office has been hoarding mail.

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322267463799738368?s=20

https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322301574891393030?s=20

Not sure if there are ballots shown here but the station is clearly dysfunctional.

so there is a problem with mail in ballots?

y0ssar1an22

Overheal wrote: »

Sure enough his 3rd rally today was on the tarmac, and is being regarded as one of the shortest Trump rallies to date clocking in at just 21 minutes.

https://twitter.com/spettypi/status/1322322091073523713?s=20

https://www.mediaite.com/election-2020/trump-holds-shorter-than-usual-rally-in-mn-after-publicly-railing-against-state-officials-limiting-crowd-size/

Quantity < Quality, Donald.

I guess it's a bit unfair of him to have to solo rally against Obama, Biden, Harris, and other surrogates.

21mins, that seems paltry!

anyone know roughly the cumulative hours X and Y have spent campaigning publically (that can include public appearances from zoom)?

Manic Moran

eire4 wrote: »

They don't. It is not unusual for the parties to send filled in sample ballots out to voters as part of their election postal advertising to try and persuade them to come on out and vote.

It hasn't been unheard of for newspapers to print supplements to bring into the polling booth with instructions on which way to vote on everything, that people just follow down the line, though I admit I'm not aware of any in this election cycle. Here in Texas it is strictly illegal to refer to electronic devices in the polling site, you need to bring hardcopies.

It is also not unusual for us to receive sample ballots from the Dept of Elections (or whatever the county equivalent is) which are almost indistinguishable from real ballots, to include the use of the term "Official ballot" at the top (and then "sample ballot" somewhere else on the page. Sometimes really obvious, sometimes not so much). This one does a pretty fair job.

The idea is that you fill it out, bring it with you, and make the real ballot look like the sample one you filled out at home (It even says so on the cover pages sometimes).

So, for that California image above, for example, you can tell the official ballot from the official sample ballot by the size of the paper. If the paper is narrow, the words 'sample ballot' have been cut off. (Or if it's offset, it's just been scanned, deleted and reprinted)

Anyway, Hanlon's razor strikes again. Never ascribe to malice what can be ascribed to incompetence...Turns out it was an official ballot after all:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nyc-premarked-ballots/

After reviewing the ballot shown in the video, election officials contacted the voter in California who had requested the absentee ballot. The voter confirmed they had received and completed the ballot and then returned it. But the voter used the wrong envelope and rather than the ballot going to the board of elections, it was sent back to the voter’s previously listed address in Queens.

Timberrrrrrrr

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

so there is a problem with mail in ballots?

No, there is a problem with USPS in that particular county.

looksee

everlast75 wrote: »

One last push for the racist vote

https://twitter.com/BrianKarem/status/1322412696659177472?s=19

"But, but, but - he's not racist...."

It seems as though this is a scam, there is apparently no record of it coming from the Whitehouse. What is worrying is that most people would at least initially accept that it is exactly the sort of thing that the Trump administration might come up with.

StringerBell

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1322275669536026625

Good, they should be worried. Not because they are in any worse place in terms of the election than they were a week ago but it is vitally important they keep the pedal to the floor and don't count one single chicken until it hatches.

Drive on and get rid of the administration. The polls will narrow, this is well know, Florida will be close whatever way it falls this is also well known, don't stop pushing until they can at least say they left everything out on the field. The trump presidency is nearly over but his legacy will live on through the judiciary for some time.

everlast75

looksee wrote: »

It seems as though this is a scam, there is apparently no record of it coming from the Whitehouse. What is worrying is that most people would at least initially accept that it is exactly the sort of thing that the Trump administration might come up with.

Deleted.

I ****ing hate fake stories like this.

There is enough *actual* nasty stuff that 45 does without making stuff up

paul71

everlast75 wrote: »

Deleted.

I ****ing hate fake stories like this.

There is enough *actual* nasty stuff that 45 does without making stuff up

Like saying doctors get paid more when people die of Covid.

listermint

everlast75 wrote: »

Deleted.

I ****ing hate fake stories like this.

There is enough *actual* nasty stuff that 45 does without making stuff up

Who benefits from this fake stuff masquerading as real.


The white House.

2 fold. It strings along their supporters who believe it. Great.

When it's proven fake they can say look at what they are saying we would do. Which strings along the folks that are republican but give the white House the benefit of doubt.


It's a win win in the fake stakes from the white House perspective. Attack on all sides.

Professor Moriarty

looksee wrote: »

It seems as though this is a scam, there is apparently no record of it coming from the Whitehouse. What is worrying is that most people would at least initially accept that it is exactly the sort of thing that the Trump administration might come up with.

Who cares? The end justifies the means. They go low, you go lower. Get that dangerous clown out and behind bars.

MJohnston

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Significant narrowing of the 'early voting advantage' gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last few days according to the data.

Biden campaign worried about Black and Latino turnout too, although the campaign is using this to try and combat the complacency element which has set in.

It’s worth noting that early vote estimates are largely separated by Party Registration rather than Party Identification. Party reg is a lagging indicator that doesn’t particularly indicate which way someone will have voted (as a tweet I posted before showed, many more registered Rs are voting for Biden than reg-D voting for Trump).

Party ID is much more accurate, but it’s still no guarantee of who people will have voted for. We’ve all seen plenty of self-identified Rs openly expressing their support for Biden. I’m sure there are a few in the other direction too.

In regards to the Black/Latino vote, word is from those communities that they tend to be in-person Election Day voters.

Christy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Who cares? The end justifies the means. They go low, you go lower. Get that dangerous clown out and behind bars.

It does not. They will feel justified in lying about their next opponent then. You need to be sure this can turn around and be more honest as soon as Trump is gone. Going lower just means thry will stay low even after Trump is gone.

Professor Moriarty

Christy42 wrote: »

It does not. They will feel justified in lying about their next opponent then. You need to be sure this can turn around and be more honest as soon as Trump is gone. Going lower just means thry will stay low even after Trump is gone.

The Dems can take the high moral ground if/when they get rid of Trump. In actual fact, it would be immoral not to use all means possible to get rid of this administration such is the danger it poses to the US, the world and the planet.

Brussels Sprout

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Who cares? The end justifies the means. They go low, you go lower. Get that dangerous clown out and behind bars.

The problem with that is that in the end everyone ends up in the gutter together and it makes "Both-sides" arguments more reasonable.

Graham

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Dems can take the high moral ground if/when they get rid of Trump. In actual fact, it would be immoral not to use all means possible to get rid of this administration such is the danger it poses to the US, the world and the planet.

Indications so far suggest that level of stooping will not be necessary to remove the incumbent.

Professor Moriarty

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The problem with that is that in the end everyone ends up in the gutter together and it makes "Both-sides" arguments more reasonable.

The "When they go low, we go high" philosophy didn't work last time out. People can go back to proper political debate once the election is won. It is not an exaggeration to say that, for the sake of humanity, Trump must go. It's that important.

Professor Moriarty

Graham wrote: »

Indications so far suggest that level of stooping will not be necessary to remove the incumbent.

What would seal the deal this weekend would be a few personal attacks on Trump accusing him of further illegal and outrageous behaviour. They would need to be credible. If they were true, that would be even better.

astrofool

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Who cares? The end justifies the means. They go low, you go lower. Get that dangerous clown out and behind bars.

The current administration is already looking at how they can grant themselves presidential pardons for stuff they haven't been convicted of yet, do expect a rush to get cases heard before January hits, if the Dems are smart they'll call for adjournments everywhere (and watch the howling as the GOP claims they don't want to pursue justice).

Quin_Dub

astrofool wrote: »

The current administration is already looking at how they can grant themselves presidential pardons for stuff they haven't been convicted of yet, do expect a rush to get cases heard before January hits, if the Dems are smart they'll call for adjournments everywhere (and watch the howling as the GOP claims they don't want to pursue justice).

The big risk with Trump handing out pardons like confetti is the removal of 5th Amendment protection.

People can end up in jail if they don't talk - It's a key reason I believe behind why he gave Stone a commutation and not a full pardon.

If he'd pardoned Stone they'd have been down on him like a tonne of bricks to get him to talk.

But unless people have been convicted he only has pardons to give.

Itssoeasy

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The problem with that is that in the end everyone ends up in the gutter together and it makes "Both-sides" arguments more reasonable.

Normally I’d agree with this but the trump administration have been acting like a mutant version of the late 1980s Detroit pistons. The Biden campaign need to be Larry bird ****ing the ball at bill laimbeer in that game in Detroit in the playoffs.

Water John

I think the DA is instructing that any ballots in that PO in Miami Dade be delivered. The Dems are holding a protest rally outside it at 12 noon today.

Manic Moran

Actually, after sleeping on it a while, I'm not sure how comfortable I am with that 'pre-filled ballot' story.

The government was able to look at a particular ballot, identify the voter who cast it (and thus knows how he voted), and was then able to reach out to the voter, outside of the jurisdiction, to ask about the ballot within a few hours.

That doesn't strike anyone as being a little contrary to the concept of secret balloting in modern representative jurisdictions?

BonnieSituation

Manic Moran wrote: »

Actually, after sleeping on it a while, I'm not sure how comfortable I am with that 'pre-filled ballot' story.

The government was able to look at a particular ballot, identify the voter who cast it (and thus knows how he voted), and was then able to reach out to the voter, outside of the jurisdiction, to ask about the ballot within a few hours.

That doesn't strike anyone as being a little contrary to the concept of secret balloting in modern representative jurisdictions?

Almost everything about the American voting system is off tbf Manic.

The "checking signatures" thing always gets me.

I'm glad you find something, finally, to be perturbed about.

Water John

Surely a mock ballot paper should have, Sample, written as a watermark through it?

Quin_Dub

Manic Moran wrote: »

Actually, after sleeping on it a while, I'm not sure how comfortable I am with that 'pre-filled ballot' story.

The government was able to look at a particular ballot, identify the voter who cast it (and thus knows how he voted), and was then able to reach out to the voter, outside of the jurisdiction, to ask about the ballot within a few hours.

That doesn't strike anyone as being a little contrary to the concept of secret balloting in modern representative jurisdictions?

I guess to an extent you give up a little (or a lot of) anonymity with Mail-in balloting.

I'm guessing that for fraud prevention purposes each mail-in ballot would have to have a reference number on it linked to a record that says "Manic Moran got his ballot" or whatever.

And given that those ballots have to be checked for signatures and so on on receipt I guess privacy goes out the window and that end too potentially.

Although I'd hope that the exposure is limited in that the "signature checker" and the "vote counter" are two different people and that the two pieces of data don't ever come together under normal circumstances.

Clearly this particular example isn't "normal circumstances" though.

Overheal

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I guess to an extent you give up a little (or a lot of) anonymity with Mail-in balloting.

I'm guessing that for fraud prevention purposes each mail-in ballot would have to have a reference number on it linked to a record that says "Manic Moran got his ballot" or whatever.

And given that those ballots have to be checked for signatures and so on on receipt I guess privacy goes out the window and that end too potentially.

Although I'd hope that the exposure is limited in that the "signature checker" and the "vote counter" are two different people and that the two pieces of data don't ever come together under normal circumstances.

Clearly this particular example isn't "normal circumstances" though.

Exigent circumstances*

Outlaw Pete

paul71 wrote: »

Like saying doctors get paid more when people die of Covid.

He didn't make that up. Might be currently wrong or overstated but he didn't make it up.

Indeed, USA Today fact checked it as "True".

Professor Moriarty

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

He didn't make that up. Might be currently wrong or overstated but he didn't make it up.

Indeed, USA Today fact checked it as "True".

Let's assume it's true. What exactly is Trump implying in announcing this at a rally?

moon2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Let's assume it's true. What exactly is Trump implying in announcing this at a rally?

Let's assume that the payments do increase as the cost of treatment increased. Let's also assume that some hospitals are gaming the system to claim more money.

What Trump said was: "Our doctors get more money if someone dies from Covid".

Based on what's been posted in this thread this statement is indisputably false or misleading. Firstly the payments are not based on mortality. They're based on treatment. Secondly, doctors aren't paid *more* of their patient dies.

The clear inference is that doctors are letting people die so they can earn more money. That's a horrific thing to claim when there's no evidence of this.

He didn't make that up. Might be currently wrong or overstated but he didn't make it up.

Indeed, USA Today fact checked it as "True".

Nope - they fact checked a different claim as true! It is superficially similar in thst it involves money and hospitals. You might notice that the fact checked claim isn't about mortality. Trump's claim is. There's also a difference about who receives the money.

Brussels Sprout

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The "When they go low, we go high" philosophy didn't work last time out. People can go back to proper political debate once the election is won. It is not an exaggeration to say that, for the sake of humanity, Trump must go. It's that important.

...and that can be done without fabricating fake stories. There is a line and that crosses it.

An Ciarraioch

Looking at the swing states, it seems Biden's lead remains consistent at 5-7% in Pennsylvania, and while the most recent Florida poll shows a tie, it over-sampled GOP voters by a significant margin:

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1322547776564113410

https://twitter.com/2ezTruthSeeker/status/1322551442801102850

droidus

I mentioned earlier that Ralston had more or less called Nevada. He's doubled down now.

So how dire is it looking for Trump with one day of data coming and much more mail before Election Day?

Pretty dire.

And it may be worse than it looks.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

What's interesting is that Nevada is at about +5.5 to +6 in polling average, almost identical to Pennsylvania, so this may be a positive indicator for PA.

Brian?

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

He didn't make that up. Might be currently wrong or overstated but he didn't make it up.

Indeed, USA Today fact checked it as "True".

No comment on your “voter fraud” turning out to be nonsense?

Brussels Sprout

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looking at the swing states, it seems Biden's lead remains consistent at 5-7% in Pennsylvania, and while the most recent Florida poll shows a tie, it over-sampled GOP voters by a significant margin:

Man, I just don't trust Florida. I remember both in 2016 and 2018 watching the counts live and the same thing happened both times. Polls showed a dead heat or the Democrats slightly ahead, then early vote counting looked promising and finally, the counting in the Panhandle (different time zone, later poll closing time) kicked in an hour later and put Trump/Scott/DeSantis over the top.

Brian?

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Man, I just don't trust Florida. I remember both in 2016 and 2018 watching the counts live and the same thing happened both times. Polls showed a dead heat or the Democrats slightly ahead, then early vote counting looked promising and finally, the counting in the Panhandle (different time zone, later poll closing time) kicked in an hour later and put Trump/Scott/DeSantis over the top.

Forget Florida. It doesn’t matter. Don’t even look at it. It’s all about PA.

Brussels Sprout

Brian? wrote: »

Forget Florida. It doesn’t matter. Don’t even look at it. It’s all about PA.

Absolutely. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and especially, Texas are all bonus territory.

StringerBell

Florida matters, Florida always matters. Always such a close election and if it goes blue that's goodnight Irene. if it goes red it's still not over but for me it's quite a worrying bell weather.

He has no path available to reelection without Florida is the bottom line and that makes it important, Biden can still win without Florida but the Donald absolutely can not.

Christy42

I see a proud boy has been arrested for threatening to blow up a polling station in North Dakota. I would have thought that would have been a pretty pointless action but I guess brains was not key to the operation.

This is a worrying trend with multiple kidnapping threats on elected officials as well happening recently. They are not the best at this but eventually some idiot might succeed.