US Presidential Election 2020

Brian?

StringerBell wrote: »

Florida matters, Florida always matters. Always such a close election and if it goes blue that's goodnight Irene. if it goes red it's still not over but for me it's quite a worrying bell weather.

He has no path available to reelection without Florida is the bottom line and that makes it important, Biden can still win without Florida but the Donald absolutely can not.

Nah. Florida is no bell weather. It's well within the moe and Biden can win handily without it.

If Trump loses it he's gone alright. But it's not worth fretting over. The early counts will come in in favour of Biden and then it'll narrow. It'll be an emotional roller coaster. It's all about PA.

Brian?

Biden's lead in Pa is dwindling. It's tightening more than any other key state. Could be within the MOE on election day. I am getting very nervous.

droidus

Im not saying you shouldn't be nervous, but why do you think that? Muhlenberg is A+ and today's poll showed him at +5 within their 5.5 MOE, but it aligns with the polling average which is +5.1 on 538 and +6.3 on the economist forecast.

MJohnston

Brian? wrote: »

Biden's lead in Pa is dwindling. It's tightening more than any other key state. Could be within the MOE on election day. I am getting very nervous.

Dwindling is overly dramatic, it’s tightened by 2 points in the last two weeks, and has kind of plateaued at Biden +5 for the last few days. I’m as anxious about PA as anyone but I think it’s still enough of a gap for Biden to win it.

Beyond that, he has a fairly clear path to 270 without PA at this point.

duploelabs

MJohnston wrote: »

Dwindling is overly dramatic, it’s tightened by 2 points in the last two weeks, and has kind of plateaued at Biden +5 for the last few days. I’m as anxious about PA as anyone but I think it’s still enough of a gap for Biden to win it.

Beyond that, he has a fairly clear path to 270 without PA at this point.

Can Biden do it without FL and PA?

MJohnston

There will be a tonne of PA polling over the next couple of days — NYT with a huge sample tomorrow, especially

Igotadose

Attend a rally, get Covid, die. No surprise here. Way to go, #IMPOTUS

"Study: Trump rallies may be responsible for an estimated 700 Covid-19 deaths
The president is most likely a superspreader."

https://www.vox.com/2020/10/31/21543277/trump-rallies-covid-19-deaths-superspreader-stanford-study-infections

BlitzKrieg

Igotadose wrote: »

Attend a rally, get Covid, die. No surprise here. Way to go, #IMPOTUS

"Study: Trump rallies may be responsible for an estimated 700 Covid-19 deaths
The president is most likely a superspreader."

https://www.vox.com/2020/10/31/21543277/trump-rallies-covid-19-deaths-superspreader-stanford-study-infections

as blatant a situation it is, taking that line will just feed into his own narrative that covid is blown out of proportion just to attack him specifically.

Thankfully its very late in the campaign but fighting trump is as much not giving him anything he can turn into fuel to motivate the gop base then anything else. For the most part the Bidan campaign have been quite good as they've not given him a lot and what they have given him has not caught on (the oil comment in the last debate for example) but still it's not wise to give him a second wind on one of his talking points.

Water John

One other reason Florida is important is that its count will come in on election night, Pennsylvania will be days. So if Biden wins it the door is closed.

See that Stanford University have done a calculation and say that Trump's rallies are responsible directly and indirectly for 700 Deaths.

Igotadose, you beat me to it, very shocking.

StringerBell

Brian? wrote: »

Nah. Florida is no bell weather. It's well within the moe and Biden can win handily without it.

If Trump loses it he's gone alright. But it's not worth fretting over. The early counts will come in in favour of Biden and then it'll narrow. It'll be an emotional roller coaster. It's all about PA.

I disagree, Florida is very much a bell weather. So much can be gauged by how Biden does in that State.

I have no issue with placing PA above Florida in terms of importance to Biden but the comments that Florida doesn't matter are completely ludicrous to me. Voting will close in Florida and the rest of the country out west will still be voting, energising or demoralising voters in other States is very much part and parcel of the US election that is held across different timezones.

If Biden wins Florida thats the job done, thats the bell weather that it is over for Trump and will have an impact on his support across the country and will also have a big impact on Senate races and House races particularly in the western states of the US, and Trump wins, and wins well in Florida then it is time to get worried, I wouldn't be surprised to see that result depress the Democrat vote in States like Arizona even. Florida always has a big say in an election cycle and this will be no different. Thankfully the campaign is paying attention to Florida and doesn't get on the it doesnt matter train.

Edit: I should also point out again that in my opinion it's over, his goose is cooked and at minimum I see Biden getting 335 EC votes will is obviously plenty

StringerBell

Still red ultimately. I did say a couple of weeks back it was going blue but that was my overly optimistic enthusiasm with how awful trump is as a president and a candidate but it will still be a very tough nut to crack for the Democrats.

Maybe down ballot it could provide some help but who knows, ultimately I think texas stays red this cycle, the sheer fact that its a battleground at all tells you how awful a job trump has done. More turnout usually good for the Dems but I'd be surprised.

Water John

Texas and Georgia are mirror images of each other in polling terms. All but 2 polls give Texas to Trump and Georgia to Biden. If either fall to Biden, the GOP are in serious trouble, not just this election.

StringerBell

I think trump has a real shot in Minnesota and that's where he has put a lot of money the last week spending more there than he did in the previous 3 weeks combined I believe, couple that with his win with the rule change re the voting ballots and it's gonna be a close one for sure. Think Clinton just carried it marginally but again she was an awful candidate (would have been a grand president) but one to watch.

StringerBell

Water John wrote: »

Texas and Georgia are mirror images of each other in polling terms. All but 2 polls give Texas to Trump and Georgia to Biden. If either fall to Biden, the GOP are in serious trouble, not just this election.

Georgia being in play is massive for the democrats, I think JO has a real shot at that senate seat and they could very well flip the state blue which would make up for the loss of Minnesota (if that happens)

L1011

StringerBell wrote: »

I think trump has a real shot in Minnesota and that's where he has put a lot of money the last week spending more there than he did in the previous 3 weeks combined I believe, couple that with his win with the rule change re the voting ballots and it's gonna be a close one for sure. Think Clinton just carried it marginally but again she was an awful candidate (would have been a grand president) but one to watch.

Throwing money at something doesn't always have the desired effect. Trump has been up to 12% off in some recent polling and not been even drawing in any polls.

Brian?

StringerBell wrote: »

I disagree, Florida is very much a bell weather. So much can be gauged by how Biden does in that State.

I have no issue with placing PA above Florida in terms of importance to Biden but the comments that Florida doesn't matter are completely ludicrous to me. Voting will close in Florida and the rest of the country out west will still be voting, energising or demoralising voters in other States is very much part and parcel of the US election that is held across different timezones.

If Biden wins Florida thats the job done, thats the bell weather that it is over for Trump and will have an impact on his support across the country and will also have a big impact on Senate races and House races particularly in the western states of the US, and Trump wins, and wins well in Florida then it is time to get worried, I wouldn't be surprised to see that result depress the Democrat vote in States like Arizona even. Florida always has a big say in an election cycle and this will be no different. Thankfully the campaign is paying attention to Florida and doesn't get on the it doesnt matter train.

Edit: I should also point out again that in my opinion it's over, his goose is cooked and at minimum I see Biden getting 335 EC votes will is obviously plenty

I think we have a different definition for "bell weather".

Honestly I'm not even looking at the polling in Florida. It carries no real importance and it's a basket case .

Brian?

StringerBell wrote: »

I think trump has a real shot in Minnesota and that's where he has put a lot of money the last week spending more there than he did in the previous 3 weeks combined I believe, couple that with his win with the rule change re the voting ballots and it's gonna be a close one for sure. Think Clinton just carried it marginally but again she was an awful candidate (would have been a grand president) but one to watch.

If Trump takes MN it's all over for Biden, he'll lose in a landslide. The polling is completely wrong and he hasn't a hope.

Fivethirtyeight five Trump a 5% chance and Biden is ahead by 12 points on average. If that's wrong, a lot of other things are wrong and Biden is gone.

Water John

PA is important if the election is very tight. More than likely tough the contest will be decided before it's counted.

MN isn't really in play IWT. Even Trafalgar poll which is skewed to GOP gives it to Biden. If its in play Biden is in real trouble. 538 give Trump a 1 in 20 chance.

MJohnston

duploelabs wrote: »

Can Biden do it without FL and PA?

Yeah — he could do it with GA, AZ, MI, MN, and WI even if Trump took TX, FL, and PA.

DK224

L1011 wrote: »

Throwing money at something doesn't always have the desired effect. Trump has been up to 12% off in some recent polling and not been even drawing in any polls.

This is indeed true, the amount of money Biden has spent in Texas which has long been regarded as a holy grail state for the Dems to win was obscene this cycle. Add to that the amount he's spent in Florida.

If he comes out of both these states empty handed after all the early hype (even the "A+" Monmouth Polls having him up by 6 in Florida this week) it could be a worrying sign.

froog

i still don't fully get how a single state can be so important. why is Pennsylvania so crucial this year? can't either candidate win without it?

Timberrrrrrrr

Rayden Mushy Carpentry wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322602843661021184?fbclid=IwAR1imI9GiCuAcvBMoSj8FXFIC24tUmpB-lWlKgN7q_vBQ9d0rYL52i-6s6Q


Expect to see plenty more of this.

Just goes to show how scared they are, they know they are going to lose by a massive margin and are doing everything they can to rig it.

Water John

It's one of the states with big pop that can go either way and thus with its large delegate number swing the EC. Only Fl and Tx would have more.

martingriff

Can anyone suggest a website to look at for all the elections not just the president election

alchemist33

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Just goes to show how scared they are, they know they are going to lose by a massive margin and are doing everything they can to rig it.

If the Democrats win all before them, surely some sort of electoral reform has to be on the cards, to stop all this uncertainty about whats valid, to stop people having to queue for hours to vote. From a European perspective, it's mental. Maybe it's more at state level action has to happen though.

VinLieger

martingriff wrote: »

Can anyone suggest a website to look at for all the elections not just the president election

Five Thirty Eight has info on pretty much everything going on

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

Water John

martingriff wrote: »

Can anyone suggest a website to look at for all the elections not just the president election

538

Yes its the ind states who oversee the election process, but many Dem states are poor too incl NY.

Brussels Sprout

froog wrote: »

i still don't fully get how a single state can be so important. why is Pennsylvania so crucial this year? can't either candidate win without it?

Basically it's a swing state that has a decent amount of electoral votes.

This diagram from 538 illustrates it pretty well. If you get all of the states and line them up end to end in order of their likely support for each candidate (based on polls)

They term the state the puts one of the candidates over the crucial 270 vote margin as the "tipping point state". As you can see they currently see Pennsylvania as the most likely state to be the tipping point state.

Texas and Florida have more electoral votes than Pennsylvania but in a universe where the Democrats are winning either of those then they likely have already won Pennsylvania given the current respective polling in those states.

martingriff

VinLieger wrote: »

Five Thirty Eight has info on pretty much everything going on

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

Is it only the presidential election or other election

An Ciarraioch

That said, in a world where Trump is only leading in Utah within the MoE, Pennsylvania becomes less of a concern:

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1322640604296318981

Water John

CNN poll in AZ, MI, NC and WN. Biden ahead in all four, only AZ within the margin of error. Women voting massively for Biden.
Many Biden supporters being motivated anti Trump. Women grab back and are squeezing.

Canice Picklington

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

That said, in a world where Trump is only leading in Utah within the MoE, Pennsylvania becomes less of a concern:

Biden could lose by 1 point in every red state and it would still make no difference. He isn't going to win Utah, and is likely going to be voter suppressed or malwared to defeat in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Ohio and North Carolina.

He has to win Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania carries the probability of chaos, violence and outright denial of democracy.

Trump is not hiding his plan to steal the election in the gerrymandered Supreme Court, he's flaunting it.

And the question is, what are the Democrats going to do to stop any of this?

I have no faith.

froog

tuesday's gonna be fun. i booked off the wednesday in work. make a night of it!

pixelburp

The question I've asked before in response to a Trump defeat is not what Trump does, but what the GOP allows. Trump has had his uses at this point so if the winds show a blowout, what value is there for the GOP to side with this (at best) divisive blow in to the party? Yes, the power grab is real, documented and involves precedent, but even still, I can't see their lust totally overriding sense. Just can't imagine Trump has made enough allies - bar Lindsey Graham - willing to side with him when the chips are down. Trump doesn't seem worth it; the GOP have their SC majority, the midterms will be along soon enough. Trump may find himself alone very quickly if the GOP whip decides him a lame duck.

Water John

pixelburp wrote: »

The question I've asked before in response to a Trump defeat is not what Trump does, but what the GOP allows. Trump has had his uses at this point so if the winds show a blowout, what value is there for the GOP to side with this (at best) divisive blow in to the party? Yes, the power grab is real, documented and involves precedent, but even still, I can't see their lust totally overriding sense. Just can't imagine Trump has made enough allies - bar Lindsey Graham - willing to side with him when the chips are down. Trump doesn't seem worth it; the GOP have their SC majority, the midterms will be along soon enough. Trump may find himself alone very quickly if the GOP whip decides him a lame duck.

The ebbing of power away can be quite dramatic. You become a has been in 24 hours.

Christy42

So does any of the polling take into account the mass discounting of votes that might favour Biden? Like how do those 100,000 votes effect the odds or the late votes being thrown out in Wisconsin?

The harassing of the Biden bus to cancel campaign events. Sure they are obviously scared but cheating can work for people including Trump.

pixelburp

Water John wrote: »

The ebbing of power away can be quite dramatic. You become a has been in 24 hours.

Precisely. And at no point has Trump seemed interested in cultivating relationships or alliances within the machinations of Washington. The swamp, basically. In fact I still remember reading of his tantrums at being expected to horse trade with republican senators during the failed healthcare reforms; he refused to engage with the boilerplate processes of governance. This suggests to me that if the axe falls, his calls to action might ring to disconnected numbers. I do expect very public Road to Damascus moments from Republican politicians, keen to distance from the man. Trump never bothered learning the game of politics and may yet learn the cost.

briany

pixelburp wrote: »

The question I've asked before in response to a Trump defeat is not what Trump does, but what the GOP allows. Trump has had his uses at this point so if the winds show a blowout, what value is there for the GOP to side with this (at best) divisive blow in to the party? Yes, the power grab is real, documented and involves precedent, but even still, I can't see their lust totally overriding sense. Just can't imagine Trump has made enough allies - bar Lindsey Graham - willing to side with him when the chips are down. Trump doesn't seem worth it; the GOP have their SC majority, the midterms will be along soon enough. Trump may find himself alone very quickly if the GOP whip decides him a lame duck.

In this event, it would be interesting to see where Trump supporters go. We don't know what would happen with Trump in terms of pending legal cases and all that, but you have to think that Trumpism is going to stick around at the very least in the form of another candidate who has Trump's endorsement if not Trump himself trying to run for reelection in 2024. That would pose a huge headache for a Republican establishment that wanted to move away from Trump back to a more traditional Republican candidate who was about the stock stuff like small government, low taxes and traditional values. The mask has slipped from a good half of the Republican base. Therefore I don't think that the Republican party can afford to move too far from Trumpism (i.e. build the wall and conspiratorial thinking) without alienating those people.

ZeroThreat

I'm not sure how true this is. This is obviously an extremely biased anti-trump progressive liberal youtuber, but he's claiming in some places ballots have even been burned.

froog

what's the thinking on the massive texas voter turnout? blue wave?

An Ciarraioch

Depends on which counties are up most, presumably.

Brussels Sprout

Christy42 wrote: »

So does any of the polling take into account the mass discounting of votes that might favour Biden? Like how do those 100,000 votes effect the odds or the late votes being thrown out in Wisconsin?

In a word, no they do not - at least not directly.

One thing to consider though is that polls assess whether someone is likely to actually vote (the best polls assign a probability to each person's likelihood of voting). Quite often the people who end up having their ballots rejected are inexperience voters who may have been assigned a lower probability of voting when polled.
One caveat to that that though, is that this year many experienced voters are not voting in person and therefore could be open to being disenfranchised either through their own fault (not signing everything they should, dropping their vote off at something that isn't actually a drop off box) or through no fault of their own (For example, a court changing the rules around when a mail-in vote is admissible after the event or the failure of the postal service to deliver their ballot on time).

briany

ZeroThreat wrote: »

I'm not sure how true this is. This is obviously an extremely biased anti-trump progressive liberal youtuber, but he's claiming in some places ballots have even been burned.

There is nothing wrong with poll watchers and I understand that to be a normal part of U.S. elections. There is everything wrong with people coming down to polling places and being disruptive díckheads, though. A poll watcher's primary concern should be that every voter gets to vote and that democracy is carried out in a lawful manner. Getting in the way or worse is the very antithesis of that and should be an arrestable offence carrying a substantial penalty. That is unequivocal and applies to anyone showing up to a polling place with bad faith intentions, completely regardless of what end of the political spectrum they are coming from.

Hopefully such incidents are isolated and the vast, vast majority (>99.9%) of U.S. voters are able to get to their polling stations and vote with impunity. God knows there is already enough underhand stuff being pulled to suppress voters without adding literal physical harassment into the mix.

Brussels Sprout

3 state polls from 538's A-rated pollsters today:

• Nebraska (2nd dis.) - Biden +2%
• Wisconsin - Biden +7%
• Pennsylvania - Biden + 5%

those could well be the final polls for all of those states

Water John

Are you sure that's Nebraska?

rossie1977

ZeroThreat wrote: »

I'm not sure how true this is. This is obviously an extremely biased anti-trump progressive liberal youtuber, but he's claiming in some places ballots have even been burned.

Story is true https://abc7.com/ballot-drop-box-fire-vote-by-mail-election/7218106/

briany

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

3 state polls from 538's A-rated pollsters today:

• Nebraska (2nd dis.) - Biden +2%
• Wisconsin - Biden +7%
• Pennsylvania - Biden + 5%

those could well be the final polls for all of those states

We have to be fair, here, and say that there is recent precedent for such leads being flipped.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

In the two polls closest to the election listed here, Clinton was estimated to have a 7 point lead or a 2 point lead. It cannot be considered that 7 points is entirely safe.

However, in this coming election, the 7 point lead is the most conservative estimate regarding a Biden win and in another poll, it extends up to 10. You don't know until you know, but flipping Wisconsin would be even more contrary to polling than list time.

Regarding Pennsylvania, a 5 point lead is flippable as well, but are there any polls even suggesting it's a closer race than the general consensus of polls? Last time out, Trump always had those few polls that were contrary to the general tide of things. Those seem to have deserted him now.

MJohnston

Water John wrote: »

Are you sure that's Nebraska?

There are three districts in Nebraska.

MJohnston

briany wrote: »

We have to be fair, here, and say that there is recent precedent for such leads being flipped.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Wisconsin

In the two polls closest to the election listed here, Clinton was estimated to have a 7 point lead or a 2 point lead. It cannot be considered that 7 points is entirely safe.

However, in this coming election, the 7 point lead is the most conservative estimate regarding a Biden win and in another poll, it extends up to 10. You don't know until you know, but flipping Wisconsin would be even more contrary to polling than list time.

Regarding Pennsylvania, a 5 point lead is flippable as well, but are there any polls even suggesting it's a closer race than the general consensus of polls? Last time out, Trump always had those few polls that were contrary to the general tide of things. Those seem to have deserted him now.

The two last WI polls in 2016 were from lower quality pollsters with Dem house effects.

TomOnBoard

Rayden Mushy Carpentry wrote: »

How do people see TX going with this insane turnout?

Well, there's a current attempt to have 100,000 ballots, from 'drive-in' voting stations thrown out... Turnout is only useful if votes actually get counted!!