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US Presidential Election 2020

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,029 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    Well, there's a current attempt to have 100,000 ballots, from 'drive-in' voting stations thrown out... Turnout is only useful if votes actually get counted!!

    It smacks of desperation.
    The idea that Texas GOP have to resort to such blatant disenfranchisement is shocking.
    But this is the level they've been reduced to..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Water John wrote: »
    Are you sure that's Nebraska?

    It's the second electoral district only. It awards 1 electoral college vote to it's winner (Maine and Nebraska allow each off their electoral districts to award electoral college votes individually).

    The Nebraska second district is basically the city of Omaha so it's far more liberal than the rest of the state (which wouldn't be difficult since the 3rd district is more Republican than any state in the country and the 1st district ranks somewhere between Kentucky and South Dakota).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,972 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog



    "The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    US hits 100,000 covid cases today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,151 ✭✭✭letowski


    One state that is flying under the radar a bit for Biden is North Carolina. It's probably been the best state this week in terms of polling for Biden. A glut of recent polls have Biden pretty much all have him winning by about 3 or more points, with highly reputable pollsters like Siena (Biden +3) and Marist (Biden +5) giving him wins. Only Rasmussen have Trump winning there, and the best they will give him is a 1 point win.

    North Carolina was also one of those states that won in the Supreme Court this week also. I like Biden's chances there in the state to be honest. Early voting shows good young (18-29) and Black voter turnout at 13% and 22% respectively, with 80% f the vote EVAB. I have a work colleague from North Carolina, his state always pretty well organised and expect to have a result called relatively early on the night as usual. This will help, if Biden has North Carolina won, it will take the pressure off him winning Florida and Pennsylvania later as a North Carolina -> Wisconsin -> Michigan is a solid route to a +270 EC vote victory for Biden.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    I hope that, when the election is over, there will be a serious look at how partisan Law Enforcement appears to have become in its support for Trump/MAGA... I have no confidence that fairness and bias-free policing now exists in USA. Sad!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,775 ✭✭✭✭Gbear


    TomOnBoard wrote: »
    I hope that, when the election is over, there will be a serious look at how partisan Law Enforcement appears to have become in its support for Trump/MAGA... I have no confidence that fairness and bias-free policing now exists in USA. Sad!

    I don't think partisanship is a sufficient word to use when its been infiltrated by Nazis across the US.

    You say there's a few bad apples when there's some people fudging breathalysers for local dignataries. Not when they're coordinating with fascist militias. There needs to be a root and branch reform of law enforcement in the US.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 92,550 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    froog wrote: »
    "The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters"

    I wouldn't dismiss that poll. Its an outlier, but she's an A+ pollster who came close in 2016. Id file it with that Biden +17 in Wisconsin.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,592 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    814 is a sub-par but not atrocious sample.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Today's PA poll was not the last one it seems (not by a long shot):


    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322710788180791299


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,464 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Water John wrote: »
    Surely a mock ballot paper should have, Sample, written as a watermark through it?

    On occasion, they do (Or more accurately, printed in lightly opaque lettering). Very rare, though.

    With respect to the Harris county business, is it a dick move? Yes. Is it without legal merit? I'm not so sure.

    The brief makes a compelling case. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20401146/sd-tex-20-cv-03709.pdf but not one which cannot be successfully argued against. (There are two definitions in play, one referring to potential illness/injury, the other the difference between curbside and drive-through voting)

    However, two other issues.
    The first twitter commentary referred to a suit in Federal court. The second one referred to a suit in State court. On the basis of previous rulings, I can't imagine the State court will throw out the ballots, though there is a small difference between them. As long as the case is going on in the State courts, i would presume that the Roberts position of "Let the states figure it out" should be binding or at least influential on the Federal judge.

    I guess we'll find out Mon or Tue.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,694 Mod ✭✭✭✭dfx-


    If the Democrats win all before them, surely some sort of electoral reform has to be on the cards, to stop all this uncertainty about whats valid, to stop people having to queue for hours to vote. From a European perspective, it's mental. Maybe it's more at state level action has to happen though.

    Control of the senate is as important if not the more important races

    Biden won't get to enact much change with McConnell still there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,111 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    On occasion, they do (Or more accurately, printed in lightly opaque lettering). Very rare, though.

    With respect to the Harris county business, is it a dick move? Yes. Is it without legal merit? I'm not so sure.

    The brief makes a compelling case. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20401146/sd-tex-20-cv-03709.pdf but not one which cannot be successfully argued against. (There are two definitions in play, one referring to potential illness/injury, the other the difference between curbside and drive-through voting)

    However, two other issues.
    The first twitter commentary referred to a suit in Federal court. The second one referred to a suit in State court. On the basis of previous rulings, I can't imagine the State court will throw out the ballots, though there is a small difference between them. As long as the case is going on in the State courts, i would presume that the Roberts position of "Let the states figure it out" should be binding or at least influential on the Federal judge.

    I guess we'll find out Mon or Tue.

    Your 'dick move' in the US would be. Called voter suppression by any other metric in any other country and has been called that by American administration's.

    It's not a dick move shrug your shoulders it's cancelling 100,000 plus American citizens legal right to vote which they've actually gone out and made.

    What would you say if it was your vote. And don't give me anything about voting in a different way. Let's say you voted in your chosen format and the Democrats decided that the polling station location had bad lightening and therefore all votes cast in it are suspended because the voter couldnt know what ballot selections they were made. What would be your thoughts. Dick move ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,208 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Brian? wrote: »
    I think we have a different definition for "bell weather".

    Honestly I'm not even looking at the polling in Florida. It carries no real importance and it's a basket case .

    I use it in the misspelled by me admittedly common use of bellwether, an indicator, a sign of things to come etc with trends.

    It's okay that we disagree on it obviously, what we do agree on is that Pennsylvania is the make or break State in terms of who will carry the day.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,810 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    I use it in the misspelled by me admittedly common use of bellwether, an indicator, a sign of things to come etc with trends.
    ...

    The definition of bellwether (courtesy Wikipedia) is particularly apposite

    A bellwether is an individual who either leads or indicates trends; a trendsetter. The term derives from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading the flock of sheep.


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    I use it in the misspelled by me admittedly common use of bellwether, an indicator, a sign of things to come etc with trends.

    It's okay that we disagree on it obviously, what we do agree on is that Pennsylvania is the make or break State in terms of who will carry the day.

    In fairness horse, we have both been spelling it wrong :).

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Here 538 have done the hard work and given us all a very useful election night schedule, including highlighting likely early night bellwether:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/

    I only wish election night had happened during the last week when we had that extra hour of time zone proximity


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,426 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    If the Democrats win all before them, surely some sort of electoral reform has to be on the cards, to stop all this uncertainty about whats valid, to stop people having to queue for hours to vote. From a European perspective, it's mental. Maybe it's more at state level action has to happen though.

    Elections in the US are run at a very local level,the polling hours, the format of the ballot paper, the required documents etc.

    So something like congress cannot make such reforms.

    It's that way for a reason, to stop Washington, and as such any individual party, having too much power over the electoral system.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,279 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    dfx- wrote: »
    Control of the senate is as important if not the more important races

    Biden won't get to enact much change with McConnell still there.

    It always seems totally mental to me that one guy in the senate can effectively decide what goes to a vote and what doesn't get voted on ever.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,161 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    The fact that this race is as close as it would appear is absolutely and utterly abhorrent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,208 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Pretty much saying the same thing I'm saying about Florida in a more succinct way if anyone is in any doubt of what I mean by my own poorly worded, at times, posts. :D

    I'm optimistic that there will just about be a clean sweep by the democrats, just about. Even if it's just by the bare bones of a net gain of 3 senate seats.

    I have no worries at all that trump will be re-elected in a fair vote but I am starting to get a little worried about the voter suppression and the effect that might have on the outcome but there's nothing to be done about it really other than just overwhelm it with turnout.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    MadYaker wrote: »
    It always seems totally mental to me that one guy in the senate can effectively decide what goes to a vote and what doesn't get voted on ever.

    The Senate is a massively archaic institution in a country that’s despairingly beholden to an archaic constitution. I feel like it’s because they wiped out the only intrinsic history that America had that they feel this obsessive need to cling to the small bits of history they do have. It’s such a broken country, and the one good outcome of the Trump era has been the EU realising that we shouldn’t be following their lead or relying on their presence anymore.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Also: one hour till the Upshot’s final state polls are out (presumably so early so they can be printed in the Sunday edition of the paper?)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Upshot:

    Arizona (n=1,252)
    Biden +6 / 49-43 (+10D from 2016)

    Florida (1,451)
    Biden +3 / 47-44 (+4D)

    Pennsylvania (1,862)
    Biden +6 / 49-43 (+6D)

    Wisconsin (1,253)
    Biden +11 / 52-41 (+11D)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Oh and here's the swing since the last Upshot polls in each state:

    AZ: Trump +2 (Oct 4th)
    FL: Trump +2 (Oct 2nd)
    PA: Trump +1 (Oct 2nd)
    WI: Biden +1 (Oct 11th)

    Now, these are Likely Voter polls. PA has had early voting since September and the rest since mid-October at least, so I'm really curious to know how the samples are handling early voter weighting. I think Upshot counts people who've voted in the LV bundle, but I don't know how heavily they weight them in comparison to likely voters who haven't yet voted.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,042 ✭✭✭Carfacemandog


    For anyone curious like I was, as 0er 538 upshot = NYT, which they have graded at A+.

    On that note, the 538 forecast (in terms of chances of winning) had Biden at about 72-28 lead before the conventions that then went to about 66-34 after if anyone can remember that week or two where Trump supporters all of a sudden got very interested in polls for a change. Well, it's been moving and moving back in Biden's favour for a good month or so, and now has Biden at a 90-10 advantage with just over 48 hours to go until the polls open.

    We are probably too late for a scandal to upset Biden's momentum at this time like with the FBI deciding to release Clinton's email investigation info but not the Trump/Russia investigation which caused huge swings in the last 2-3 weeks of polling in 2016. I've been waiting for something to drop along those lines, but what they had 'prepared' was so weak that collapsed under an ounce of scrutiny and has had Tucker Carlson and co running from it as fast as they can.

    On a chance of winning scale (not popular vote, though they track and aggregate that too for anyone interested), this is how some key states look as per 538s aggregations:

    TX - Trump (64%)
    OH - Trump (52%)
    GA - Biden (58%)
    FL - Biden (63%)
    NC - Biden (68%)
    AZ - Biden (70%)
    PA - Biden (85%)
    NV - Biden (90%)
    WI - Biden (93%)
    MN - Biden (95%)
    MI - Biden (96%)


  • Registered Users Posts: 326 ✭✭DK224


    Only once in 27 elections since 1852 has a candidate won Florida and Ohio and lost an election, Nixon in 1960.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    This is fun.

    I gave Trump AZ, GZ, FL, NV, PA and TX. Biden still wins 290 v 247.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews


    I lost sight of the wood for the trees. I was so focused on certain races I didn't realise how narrow the path to victory is for Trump. He 100% needs Ohio and one more of WI or MN.


    That's a real stretch for Trump based on the current numbers.

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 64 ✭✭Canice Picklington


    WI + PA are done imo. I think Trump will take FL though.
    I find it very hard to see Trump not take Florida. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Trump 50-48 up there.

    Florida is Trump's Ground Zero. It's probably the first big state that will declare. If he takes it, his path starts to open up again.

    It's hard not to think of Florida and North Carolina as a pair, that's certainly how it worked in 2016. You could probably throw in Georgia and Texas to make it a foursome. If Biden doesn't win Florida, it's difficult enough to see him take any of the others.

    Pennsylvania is the ball game. The Democrats need to throw the kitchen sink at it for the next two days.


  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    I find it very hard to see Trump not take Florida. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Trump 50-48 up there.

    Florida is Trump's Ground Zero. It's probably the first big state that will declare. If he takes it, his path starts to open up again.

    It's hard not to think of Florida and North Carolina as a pair, that's certainly how it worked in 2016. You could probably throw in Georgia and Texas to make it a foursome. If Biden doesn't win Florida, it's difficult enough to see him take any of the others.

    Pennsylvania is the ball game. The Democrats need to throw the kitchen sink at it for the next two days.

    I think the senate races in NC and Arizona will bring both over the line for Biden. I agree with Florida though. I reckon Trump wins there.

    However if Biden wins there then Trump is toast. There is no possibility of Biden winning in Florida AND Trump being competitive in the rust belt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,666 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Upshot:

    Arizona (n=1,252)
    Biden +6 / 49-43 (+10D from 2016)

    Florida (1,451)
    Biden +3 / 47-44 (+4D)

    Pennsylvania (1,862)
    Biden +6 / 49-43 (+6D)

    Wisconsin (1,253)
    Biden +11 / 52-41 (+11D)

    Just to note that these polls have quite small margins of error due to the large sample sizes.

    AZ - 3.0
    FL - 3.2
    PA - 2.4
    WI - 3.2

    That puts Biden 1 point above the MoE in PA


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    ABC News /Washington Post (A+ rated by 538) have polls out as well for Florida and PA of Likely Voters:

    PA (n=810) : Biden +7%
    FL (n=824) : Trump +2%

    m.o.e is 4% for both polls

    full details here

    This, along with the Upshot poll, is making me feel a lot more confident about PA.
    Florida will, as usual, likely come down to the wire.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Navarro a Cuban Floridian, maintains, there may be shy Bidens voters in Florida. They don't want to be seen by other Cubans as not supporting Trump.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    It's hard not to think of Florida and North Carolina as a pair, that's certainly how it worked in 2016. You could probably throw in Georgia and Texas to make it a foursome. If Biden doesn't win Florida, it's difficult enough to see him take any of the others.

    NBC News had a piece last night about North Carolina. Apparently it's become quite the tech and pharma hub and as a result it's attracted a lot of college-educated workers from other states who have collectively turned it into a purple state.

    I believe similar movements of people are happening into Atlanta, Georgia and into the Dallas/Houston/Austin area of east Texas.


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  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I believe similar movements of people are happening into Atlanta, Georgia and into the Dallas/Houston/Austin area of east Texas.

    Yup Atlanta is growing massively and both of your examples have had huge increases in African American population.


    On a more general note based just on gut feeling Iowa, AZ, Florida and Ohio are all Trump's I think. PA and Wisconsin are going to be the 2 crucial states IMO.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    MJohnston wrote: »
    The Senate is a massively archaic institution in a country that’s despairingly beholden to an archaic constitution. I feel like it’s because they wiped out the only intrinsic history that America had that they feel this obsessive need to cling to the small bits of history they do have. It’s such a broken country, and the one good outcome of the Trump era has been the EU realising that we shouldn’t be following their lead or relying on their presence anymore.

    Land of the Free?
    Leaders of the 'Free World'?
    Richest Country on Earth?
    A Great Democracy?

    All myths being trounced on over the past 4 years... One thing he's done that I'm glad about: he's popped all that bubble of self- aggrandising bull**** we used to hear for decades...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Water John wrote: »
    Navarro a Cuban Floridian, maintains, there may be shy Bidens voters in Florida. They don't want to be seen by other Cubans as not supporting Trump.

    I believe that. Also, shy Seniors who fear being bullied in retirement communities if they 'admit' to being fed up with MAGA!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,366 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    It may just people being over cautious but it was reported on the 11th hour with Brian Williams that business people are boarding up their places of business for what may come post election in terms of unrest.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Latest pollsters:

    Emerson:

    Ohio: Biden +1 49-48% (change from last poll not stated)
    Iowa: Trump +1 48-47% (1% swing to Trump)
    Michigan: Biden +7 52-45% (4% swing to Trump)

    Iowa Senate: Greenfield +3 51-48% (7% swing to Greenfield)

    RMG:

    Florida: Biden +4 51-47% (2% swing to Biden)

    Research and Polling (New Mexico poll):

    Biden +12 54-42% (3% swing to Trump)

    EPIC-MRA:

    Michigan: Biden +7 48-41% (2% swing to Trump)


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,464 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    listermint wrote: »
    Your 'dick move' in the US would be. Called voter suppression by any other metric in any other country and has been called that by American administration's.

    It's not a dick move shrug your shoulders it's cancelling 100,000 plus American citizens legal right to vote which they've actually gone out and made.

    What would you say if it was your vote. And don't give me anything about voting in a different way. Let's say you voted in your chosen format and the Democrats decided that the polling station location had bad lightening and therefore all votes cast in it are suspended because the voter couldnt know what ballot selections they were made. What would be your thoughts. Dick move ?

    The difference between the two examples is that, to my knowledge, there is no legislation concerning the levels of lighting in a polling station. If the drive-through polling sites are, indeed, contrary to the cited state legislation, even if done in good faith, then it's illegal and can be knowable and avoidable ahead of time and Harris County is to blame. Would it have a suppressive effect? Yes, which is why I'm not approving of the concept in its application even if the Republican legal argument is correct. That doesn't, however, make it incorrect and there is something to be said for following legislation when dealing with elections. After all, both sides are going to use the rules to their advantage. The drive-through voting sites themselves are apparently disproportionately in Democrat areas of Harris county, if so, could that also not have a suppressive effect?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,066 ✭✭✭Christy42


    The difference between the two examples is that, to my knowledge, there is no legislation concerning the levels of lighting in a polling station. If the drive-through polling sites are, indeed, contrary to the cited state legislation, even if done in good faith, then it's illegal and can be knowable and avoidable ahead of time and Harris County is to blame. Would it have a suppressive effect? Yes, which is why I'm not approving of the concept in its application even if the Republican legal argument is correct. That doesn't, however, make it incorrect and there is something to be said for following legislation when dealing with elections.

    There is something to be said for being sure about it ahead of time. Has Harris put out a defense or have they been given an opportunity to do so? The judge seemed mighty quick to push the ruling through. A bigger question is when did Republicans find out about this? Did they simply wait for the vote to suppress it or how are they only finding out about a voting system 100,000 people used?

    You can blame Harris County and there is surely some blame there if they made mistakes but the fact remains that the US as a whole is really, really bad at organising elections. By far the worst in the first world. Blaming individual counties does nothing. Obviously they need more support from an independent body across the board.

    I have seen individual potentially spoiled votes argued over but 100,000 in one go? Last minute rulings on when post needs to arrive by? Last minute rulings on the number of allowable ballot boxes? Massive lines in loads of places. Whatever the hell republics s thought they were doing in California with those ballot boxes. I don't know what their thoughts were or even what benefit they sought there. A supreme Court judge being asked by a state to retract part of their reasoning on an election ruling. Government mail being a complete shambles this year including whatever was up with Miami post office.

    It isn't just this year either but there seems to be no concerted effort to actually fix it. Some things are better done centralised. Shrugging the shoulders and blaming the numerous counties at fault is not helpful, whether or not it is their fault.

    Suppressive means to reduce voting. The drive through increased voting. It is not suppressive. It is like someone offering lifts to the voting booth for certain areas is not suppressive. However these things shouldn't be organised by parties but it is yet more evidence the US really struggles at running elections.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,486 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Yeh play around with this electoral decision tree map, it's quite cool, Trump does not have many paths to victory

    https://observablehq.com/@observablehq/electoral-college-decision-tree

    Thanks, that's really handy.

    It really illustrates (once again) how crucial PA is. If Trump loses it he basically needs to clear the board everywhere else.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,792 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    ABC News /Washington Post (A+ rated by 538) have polls out as well for Florida and PA of Likely Voters:

    PA (n=810) : Biden +7%
    FL (n=824) : Trump +2%

    m.o.e is 4% for both polls

    full details here

    This, along with the Upshot poll, is making me feel a lot more confident about PA.
    Florida will, as usual, likely come down to the wire.
    It's hard to see how Trump wins now. The key swing states are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden has huge leads in the first two and a decent lead in the last. Even if Biden fails to take PA, he can win one of Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio. Like has already been pointed out, he has so many paths to victory.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,066 ✭✭✭Christy42


    It's hard to see how Trump wins now. The key swing states are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden has huge leads in the first two and a decent lead in the last. Even if Biden fails to take PA, he can win one of Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio. Like has already been pointed out, he has so many paths to victory.

    If PA switches to Trump it means there is likely a decent shift or error missed by pollsters across the board. This is Trump's main hope.

    Plus numerous voter suppression tactics to tip the scales if any places get too close though I get the feeling the Republicans are focussing them more on house/senate votes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    If there were any doubt about Nevada, this should quell it:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1322827814513614848


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