US Presidential Election 2020

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. Both main parties have had the opportunity to end gerrymandering, improve voting systems or any number of other electoral reforms, but have sat on their hands because it may have suited them once they were in power.

Special mention to the Republicans for dividing the nation’s largest historically black university into separate congressional districts.

JoeGil

Water John wrote: »

You must have missed the last two weeks.

On the contrary, despite the media censorship of the corruption stories I've manged to stay updated on the details over the last few weeks.

BonnieSituation

JoeGil wrote: »

On the contrary, despite the media censorship of the corruption stories I've manged to stay updated on the details over the last few weeks.

Can you give us some examples of the media's censorship of the corruption stories?

If you've heard about it then I'm guessing they weren't censored.

JoeGil

Graham wrote: »

I didn't think there had been any significant changes.

JoeGil, which polls have you seen tightening?

The last one I saw was Iowa which changed from tied 4 weeks ago to Biden trailing by 7 points.

Water John

POLLSTER RATING TRUMP BIDEN LEADER
Selzer & Co.
A+
Oct. 26-29 48% 41% Trump +7
Quinnipiac University
B+
Oct. 23-27 47% 46% Trump +1
Emerson College
A-
Oct. 29-31 49% 47% Trump +1
Siena College/The New York Times Upshot
A+
Oct. 18-20 43% 46% Biden +3
InsiderAdvantage
B-
Oct. 30 48% 46% Trump +2
RABA Research
B/C
Oct. 21-24 46% 50% Biden +4
Monmouth University
A+
Oct. 15-19 47% 51% Biden +4
Emerson College
A-
Oct. 19-21 48% 48% Even +0

This may not print right but one poll has Trump +7 and seems an outlier. Dangerous to compare diff polling cos but yes it seems tightening over time.

L1011

JoeGil wrote: »

On the contrary, despite the media censorship of the corruption stories I've manged to stay updated on the details over the last few weeks.

And yet you haven't noticed the coverage of massive, endemic corruption on the other side?

prawnsambo

L1011 wrote: »

And yet you haven't noticed the coverage of massive, endemic corruption on the other side?

It's one of those irregular verbs. He's corrupt, they're corrupted, we're really good.

JoeGil

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Can you give us some examples of the media's censorship of the corruption stories?

If you've heard about it then I'm guessing they weren't censored.

The interviews with the former Biden Family business associate Tony Bobulinski is a good place to start.

Graham

JoeGil wrote: »

The last one I saw was Iowa which changed from tied 4 weeks ago to Biden trailing by 7 points.

Sorry, when you said things were going to come down to the wire I didn't realise you were talking specifically about Iowa.

Latest polls for Iowa

Emerson College - Biden 47 / Trump 49
InsiderAdvantage - Biden 46 / Trump 48

It does look like Trump might take the State but probably still within the MOE.

Cook political still have Iowa listed as a toss-up state.

TomOnBoard

Water John wrote: »

There was a Congressional candidate on the bus, that might explain FBI concern.

Once there is a federal candidate/election on the ballot, an election - related crime in a state is a Federal crime.

What now needs to be established is whether a crime actually took place. I hope the FBI will reach a very swift conclusion to that! Messages need to be sent before Tuesday that people stepping outside the law this week will be taken on!

BonnieSituation

JoeGil wrote: »

The interviews with the former Biden Family business associate Tony Bobulinski is a good place to start.

So are they censored or what?

JoeGil

L1011 wrote: »

And yet you haven't noticed the coverage of massive, endemic corruption on the other side?

My point was just in relation to the story that broke in the last two weeks about the Biden dealings. I'm sure there is lots of corruption out there but this one is a big story that is just breaking and will influence some voters who are only now finding out.

Water John

Trump rally has a song playing ATM... the theme from The Titanic.

Graham

JoeGil wrote: »

My point was just in relation to the story that broke in the last two weeks about the Biden dealings. I'm sure there is lots of corruption out there but this one is a big story that is just breaking and will influence some voters who are only now finding out.

The story whimpered out over the last fortnight. The response so far appears to be a large collective nothing and no significant changes in any of the polls.

Do you expect that to change in the final 48 hours?

JoeGil

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So are they censored or what?

By and large yes. Not being covered by most media outlets even though a story like this would normally be the main headine for all media outlets.

BonnieSituation

JoeGil wrote: »

By and large yes. Not being covered by most media outlets even though a story like this would normally be the main headine for all media outlets.

Censorship =/= not being covered

I think you need to brush up on some definitions.

If the story had any merit it might be covered, but there's a few other stories on the go this week you may have noticed.

JoeGil

Graham wrote: »

The story whimpered out over the last fortnight. The response so far appears to be a large collective nothing and no significant changes in any of the polls.

Do you expect that to change in the final 48 hours?

It didn't whimper out. It just wasn't reported.
I would expect voters who are just hearing the facts to be influenced.

MJohnston

JoeGil wrote: »

By and large yes. Not being covered by most media outlets even though a story like this would normally be the main headine for all media outlets.

Oh weird, it’s almost like it’s completely made up and the media know it.

prawnsambo

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Apparently the fella in closest truck whose numberplate was visible is known to police and was involved in previous attempt to run over protesters after being dishonorably discharged from military. There's quite a bit more interesting stuff on perpetrators over on r/politics

But of course it could be wrong, innocent until proven guilty and all that, we will find out in few days.

Judging by the amount of self-congratulatory and incriminating posts said person put on social media, the FBI will probably have it sorted during lunch break.

L1011

JoeGil wrote: »

My point was just in relation to the story that broke in the last two weeks about the Biden dealings. I'm sure there is lots of corruption out there but this one is a big story that is just breaking and will influence some voters who are only now finding out.

And as I said, anyone who would find Biden corrupt but consider Trump not corrupt is already voting for Trump. Yet you appeared extremely confused by that.

JoeGil

MJohnston wrote: »

Oh weird, it’s almost like it’s completely made up and the media know it.

All I can say is that I heard the intreview with Bobulinski. He sounded genuine. Maybe the media know something he doesn't. Best to listen to the interview and decide.

listermint

JoeGil wrote: »

All I can say is that I heard the intreview with Bobulinski. He sounded genuine. Maybe the media know something he doesn't. Best to listen to the interview and decide.

Have you heard the expression flogging a dead horse.

Graham

JoeGil wrote: »

It didn't whimper out. It just wasn't reported.
I would expect voters who are just hearing the facts to be influenced.

What makes you think the story is going to get wider coverage in the next 48 hours to enable it to influence those that haven't already heard it?

dark crystal

Will there be exit polls conducted on the 3rd?

Tell me how

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It doesn't matter if Biden is corrupt or not.

It's the US , assume all politicians are somewhat corrupt because there's no other way they could pay for the election campaigns.

What matters is how corrupt they are.

At this stage it looks like Trump a billionaire business man isn't even paying his bills to small businesses for essential services like providing ambulances and transport for people at out of town (because he allegedly doesn't pay the in-town ones) rallies.

Anyone who read Michael Cohen's book knows there is a 100% chance that Trump is trying to shaft suppliers when and where he can. That book is littered with examples of him doing that, starting with Trump first getting Cohen to do a couple hundred hours work, while Cohen was working for another firm and was adding those hours to his billable summary for Trump and Trump just offered him a job, with less money than Cohen was making at the time and never paid the original bill.

L1011

dark crystal wrote: »

Will there be exit polls conducted on the 3rd?

With the volume of early voting, they won't be any use.

Carfacemandog

Graham wrote: »

What makes you think the story is going to get wider coverage in the next 48 hours to enable it to influence those that haven't already heard it?

They're praying for a James Comey to come save them again, but it hasn't happened and as you said is too late now.

looksee

JoeGil wrote: »

By and large yes. Not being covered by most media outlets even though a story like this would normally be the main headine for all media outlets.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/oct/29/tony-bobulinski-hunter-biden-and-china-explainer/

I've no idea about any interviews with Bobulinski, but this article on Politifact seems pretty comprehensive. They can't find anything worth making a fuss about. And in terms of Joe Biden, there doesn't seem to be anything at all. Fake news even.

rossie1977

JoeGil wrote: »

All I can say is that I heard the intreview with Bobulinski. He sounded genuine. Maybe the media know something he doesn't. Best to listen to the interview and decide.

Look if there was anything to these claims media would be all over it. Hillarys emails was a front page story on NY Times 13 out of last 14 days of 2016 campaign and they immediately dismiss Bobulinski claims

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/25/us/politics/bidens-china.html

Brussels Sprout

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Will it be possible to watch election coverage live on YouTube?

Right now Sky News and ABC News are live on Youtube. I'd say there will be many more on Tuesday night.

Water John

Some states will be releasing the results from the early and post in ballots very soon after closing. That may help give some indication. For example they know the % registered as GOP, Dems and Ind of those who have voted that way. If there's a skew in either way that may show it, esp which way the Inds are breaking.

TomOnBoard

JoeGil wrote: »

It didn't whimper out. It just wasn't reported.
I would expect voters who are just hearing the facts to be influenced.

It wasnt reported by any self-respecting media outlet because it was a load of irrelevant ****e... So, someone found a photo of a guy passed out with a crack- pipe on the pillow, or the same chap smoking a ciggie in the bath... Over 21 million people in USA have an addiction to at least one substance and thats not counting 'casual' users. So, whats so special about this guy? It's not like he's running for election...

It's a pathetic story, poorly handled by Trump's propaganda idiots, and most people see it a just another shiver of a dying wasp! Aaaand, it's a gross insult to all those 21 million who have to fight every single day in their battle against their addictions. NONE of them would want to see photos of themselves when they're in the throes of their addiction.

Give it a rest! This far-right addiction to Hunter is an embarassment at this stage!

Overheal

TomOnBoard wrote: »

It wasnt reported by any self-respecting media outlet because it was a load of irrelevant ****e... So, someone found a photo of a guy passed out with a crack- pipe on the pillow, or the same chap smoking a ciggie in the bath... Over 21 million people in USA have an addiction to at least one substance and thats not counting 'casual' users. So, whats so special about this guy? It's not like he's running for election...

It's a pathetic story, poorly handled by Trump's propaganda idiots, and most people see it a just another shiver of a dying wasp! Aaaand, it's a gross insult to all those 21 million who have to fight every single day in their battle against their addictions. NONE of them would want to see photos of themselves when they're in the throes of their addiction.

Give it a rest! This far-right addiction to Hunter is an embarassment at this stage!

It's the same level of shyte that we've heard in the impeachment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NidVfdQk_So

Gaetz himself is a product of nepotism.

prawnsambo

What's worse is that this chap (Hunter Biden) has been battling addiction for years, has (apparently) been clean of recent years and he's the focus of an absolute torrent of made up stories, leaks, hacks and sundry other personal attacks and invasions and he's not even standing for dog catcher in his local county. I can't imagine the strain he's under right now. And for the square root of feck all. It's just disgraceful and abhorrent. They can't find anything on Mr. Clean, so they go after his recovering addict one remaining child.

gmisk

Overheal wrote: »

It's the same level of shyte that we've heard in the impeachment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NidVfdQk_So

Gaetz himself is a product of nepotism.

Ha ha that is a great clip.
Absolutely destroyed him.

Gaetz is an odd one, that story about his "son" is bonkers.
The appearing in a gas mask....ethic violations..DUI...threatening michael cohen...his ties to holocaust deniers like Charles Johnson..

An Ciarraioch

Water John wrote: »

Some states will be releasing the results from the early and post in ballots very soon after closing. That may help give some indication. For example they know the % registered as GOP, Dems and Ind of those who have voted that way. If there's a skew in either way that may show it, esp which way the Inds are breaking.

For those of us watching in Ireland, we'll learn most of the key overnight results by 2 a.m, and indeed many even by 1:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1323024540511965184

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1323026556281851914

An Ciarraioch

dark crystal wrote: »

Will there be exit polls conducted on the 3rd?

If it's like previous years, then the second the polls close, TV companies will say "We're calling State X for Biden, and State X for Trump", but only if they're ultra-safe states like Vermont and West Virginia.

Quin_Dub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If it's like previous years, then the second the polls close, TV companies will say "We're calling State X for Biden, and State X for Trump", but only if they're ultra-safe states like Vermont and West Virginia.

I don't think they will... I suspect that most of the media will be super circumspect about calling States on the night.

Unless they have actually counted the vast majority of votes, which given the volume of early/mail in votes there aren't going to be many at that stage on the night.

Gbear

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Federal judge deciding about the 120,000 votes in Harris county, Houston

It's just bizarre that something so basic as voting is being subjected to so much fud.

Do democrats have any plans for resolving all this nonsense around voting next time around (assuming they gain all 3 wings)? Will we be hearing same stuff in 5 years?

There's been a bit of momentum behind a "new voting rights act" of some sort. Obama made a speech after the death of John Lewis about it, tying it to Lewis, and he pointedly picked out the filibuster as an obstacle that should be gotten rid of if it impeded such a piece of legislation.

If the Democrats have any sense of self-preservation they will. The Republicans are not going to stop trying to push minority rule any time soon.

They need to avoid the mistakes of Labour in the UK who had the chance to push for some form of PR, and are paying for their greed ever since.

TomOnBoard

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Federal judge deciding about the 120,000 votes in Harris county, Houston

It's just bizarre that something so basic as voting is being subjected to so much fud.

Do democrats have any plans for resolving all this nonsense around voting next time around (assuming they gain all 3 wings)? Will we be hearing same stuff in 5 years?

What's even more bizarre is that the State Supreme Court blew this case away already!

Here's an interesting article on Slate dealing with some background and legal issues involved:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/texas-drive-through-voting-throw-out-ballots.html

Brussels Sprout

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Good post, let's hope for change

I believe Maine already moved to rank voting https://www.npr.org/2020/10/07/921287288/how-maines-ranked-choice-voting-system-works

So hopefully in time rest of US becomes more normal when it comes to elections, hell maybe they can learn from this Republic

New York City have also decided to move to ranked choice voting, although I'm not sure if they have actually had any elections with it yet (perhaps this week).

The fact that a country as large and diverse as the USA has only 2 political parties is preposterous. First past the post is not good for democracy.

Francie Barrett

Pennsylvania today apparently.

TomOnBoard

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Pennsylvania today apparently.

Sheer Madness!! Yet another Super-Spreader event in MAGA-land!!

droidus

A series of Politico pieces that collectively point towards a stronger performance for Trump

The importance of Pennsylvania and the Trump campaigns efforts there:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/pennsylvania-trump-biden-campaign-433798

A credible look at why the shy trump voter might be a real thing:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

How he might pull it off:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/how-trump-could-win-election-433703

Some decent info and analysis and worth a read if you want to feed your anxiety.

Shelga

There’s no “election silence” law in the US, right? Does that mean the candidates could hold rallies the day of the election, if they wanted? As long as it’s not near a polling station, is my understanding.

Brussels Sprout

Shelga wrote: »

There’s no “election silence” law in the US, right? Does that mean the candidates could hold rallies the day of the election, if they wanted? As long as it’s not near a polling station, is my understanding.

I guess so. Only thing is that election rallies are usually held at night and the polls close relatively early (7-8 pm usually) in most states so it probably wouldn't achieve much. They could try and have one during the day but since it's a weekday and a work day for most people it might be tricky to get a decent turnout.

Manic Moran

droidus wrote: »

A series of Politico pieces that collectively point towards a stronger performance for Trump

The importance of Pennsylvania and the Trump campaigns efforts there:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/pennsylvania-trump-biden-campaign-433798

I was in the Keystone State last weekend, drove from Philly to Gettysburg. I was astounded at the amount of Trump signs (and a Trump convoy) I saw, way more than I see here in Texas. Maybe it's because it's a swing state and there's more call to bother advertising.

Obviously there's a difference between I-76 and the city of Philadelphia, I'm sure there are more people within a mile of Philly city center than there are between Harrisburg and Philly, but there's a definite fight going on there.

listermint

Manic Moran wrote: »

I was in the Keystone State last weekend, drove from Philly to Gettysburg. I was astounded at the amount of Trump signs (and a Trump convoy) I saw, way more than I see here in Texas. Maybe it's because it's a swing state and there's more call to bother advertising.

Obviously there's a difference between I-76 and the city of Philadelphia, I'm sure there are more people within a mile of Philly city center than there are between Harrisburg and Philly, but there's a definite fight going on there.

But I thought there was such a thing a silent trump voter.

All the ones we've seen so far have been pretty vulgar about the open support. Even so far as to attack the opposition front runner. And trump tweeting out support of such actions in twitter only hours ago.

America is broken.

And it's broken for all to see.

Brian?

Manic Moran wrote: »

I was in the Keystone State last weekend, drove from Philly to Gettysburg. I was astounded at the amount of Trump signs (and a Trump convoy) I saw, way more than I see here in Texas. Maybe it's because it's a swing state and there's more call to bother advertising.

Obviously there's a difference between I-76 and the city of Philadelphia, I'm sure there are more people within a mile of Philly city center than there are between Harrisburg and Philly, but there's a definite fight going on there.

I don't think anyone is doubting that Trump is fighting hard in Pa.

There's a massive urban/rural divide in Pa. Even Pittsburgh doesn't follow the urban trend.

Quin_Dub

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Sheer Madness!! Yet another Super-Spreader event in MAGA-land!!

I will never understand the whole "rally" thing.

Covid or not , why on earth would you want to go to a political rally - for anyone?

50+ Years ago before TV and more recently the Internet etc. they were probably the only way to get to see/hear the candidate and what they were about , but since then?

I just don't get it.