US Presidential Election 2020

Joe_ Public

Foxtrol wrote: »

Well we're using different sources then

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/live-blog/south-carolina-primary-live-updates-democrats-vote-2020-candidates-n1145296/ncrd1146266#liveBlogHeader

Are you talking about specific people at msnbc/cnn or the entity themselves?

Bernie and his supporters want to have his cake and eat it. Crap on 'the establishment' and the media and then cry when those people don't support him. I understand it politically, it works well for Trump, but I'd hope more people wouldn't be stupid enough to fall for it again.

No, same source i think but you might be looking at projected polls, exit polls are here:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/south-carolina-results

I am talking purely about their analysis. From "senator warren what did you think when sanders told you a woman couldnt win" to comparing sanders' progress to the spread of nazism, there's a long list of clear anti sanders coverage. I would say its akin to the guardian/observer coverage of corbyn pre uk election, they gave the pro corbyn wing the odd bone, but their ranks were swelled with senior, ageing middle class columnists who were bitterly opposed to corbyn which hurt him badly. But us media and networks dont seem to carry the same level of influence so any damage to sanders would be minimal enough i think.

Itssoeasy

I know what I said about Bernie sanders last night probably isn't the popular point of view it seems but I stand by it simply because I think he's too old and his health which btw he's said there will be no more info on which I think is poor form given the job he's running for. I'm not saying joe Biden is much better as a candidate but the debates between sanders and trump would be torture to watch. I will say one thing for both sanders and Biden in that while they are as old as trump they haven't diminished mentally like trump has which may not be the compliment I think it is.

Now, in saying all that above and last night the American electorate voted Donald trump president and George W Bush twice as president so maybe we are all giving them far too much credit.

If nothing else the votes today may clear up things further or make them worse. We shall know sometime tomorrow Irish time what the state of play is.

Sheridan81

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I will say one thing for both sanders and Biden in that while they are as old as trump they haven't diminished mentally like trump has which may not be the compliment I think it is. .

Biden has declined mentally more than Trump. He speaks like a guy who should be in an old folk's home.

Manic Moran

Foxtrol wrote: »

It isn't just that though.

The house seats that the Democrats gained recently are mostly in moderate suburban areas, where Bernie and his policies are deemed to be unpopular. It is thought that it will make it more difficult to keep or win similar seats if the candidate for the house has to run opposing many aspects of Bernie's platform.

Realistically, those are the same voters. Colleague of mine in Austin reported a three-hour voting ordeal.

Foxtrol

sid waddell wrote: »

The three most likely Democratic senate gains in 2020 are Colorado, Maine and Arizona.

Polls show Sanders is comfortably ahead in all three states.

I thought you weren't responding to me anymore :rolleyes:

Care to share your source for Sanders leading Biden against Trump in a general election for all 3 states?

Latest polls I can see Sanders is ahead in only 1 of those 3.

hotmail.com

Englo wrote: »

One is a political party, the other has become a cult. That's all you need to know, and for evidence just look at most Trump supporting posts on this thread.

Both parties have similar economic policies from a European point of view.

sid waddell

I see the Biden cultist is now claiming that Biden being behind Sanders in particular states means he's more "electable" than Sanders in those states.

The "centrists" sure have taken Trump's playbook and run with it.

Foxtrol

Joe_ Public wrote: »

No, same source i think but you might be looking at projected polls, exit polls are here:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-primary-elections/south-carolina-results

Projected polls? It was posted 2 hours after polls closed and I saw those exact numbers used from my link yesterday morning on TV.

I am talking purely about their analysis. From "senator warren what did you think when sanders told you a woman couldnt win" to comparing sanders' progress to the spread of nazism, there's a long list of clear anti sanders coverage. I would say its akin to the guardian/observer coverage of corbyn pre uk election, they gave the pro corbyn wing the odd bone, but their ranks were swelled with senior, ageing middle class columnists who were bitterly opposed to corbyn which hurt him badly. But us media and networks dont seem to carry the same level of influence so any damage to sanders would be minimal enough i think.

The time the media gave to the nonsense about Biden and Ukraine tops the time spent on all of your complaints.

Foxtrol

sid waddell wrote: »

I see the Biden cultist is now claiming that Biden being behind Sanders in particular states means he's more "electable" than Sanders in those states.

The "centrists" sure have taken Trump's playbook and run with it.

I ask you for evidence and rather than providing it you just repeat your claim. :rolleyes:

Here's mine:

Arizona - Biden tie with Trump and Bernie losing
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/

Maine - Both winning against Trump but Biden up by +2 on Bernie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/maine/

Colorado - Both winning against Trump but Bernie up by +2 on Biden
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/colorado/

Are you confusing the democratic primary with the general election? The whole point of hurting down ballot candidates is about the general so quoting primary polling is pointless.

Joe_ Public

Foxtrol wrote: »

Projected polls? It was posted 2 hours after polls closed and I saw those exact numbers used from my link yesterday morning on TV.



The time the media gave to the nonsense about Biden and Ukraine tops the time spent on all of your complaints.

I mean, strewth, the link you provided says projected. Literally, half a dozen times...in the headline, in the lede, the main body. The link i posted is actual exit poll results. Anyway....moving on...

Englo

sid waddell wrote: »

All the same stuff was said about Obama in 2008.

Sure how could a black candidate with a middle name Hussein and perceived links to the leaders of the Weather Underground win?

Totally unelectable, totally.

I actually went to look this up, since it was 12 years ago and time can play some games with memory. The results were actually quite startling... it turns out 'Bernie = cult' is basically a copy/paste job of what we saw 12 years ago. Below are just some examples:

CNN and ABC pushing that his supporters are going 'too far', are 'creepy' and are 'cult like', and mocking that his supporters would be selling flowers at airports because they're apparently like Hari Krishna's.
https://www.mediamatters.org/washington-post/cnn-repeats-smear-obama-supporters-creepy-and-cult

Here is a Politco article with some more: https://www.mediamatters.org/washington-post/cnn-repeats-smear-obama-supporters-creepy-and-cult

Joe Klein (Time Magazine): “There was something just a wee bit creepy about the mass messianism — ‘We are the ones we’ve been waiting for’

Jake Tapper (ABC): Holy Season of Lent is upon us,” Tapper wrote. “Can Obama worshippers try to give up their Helter-Skelter cultish qualities for a few weeks?”

Joel Stein (LA Times): “Obamaphilia has gotten creepy,” Joel Stein wrote in Friday’s Los Angeles Times. “What the Cult of Obama doesn’t realize is that he is a politician.”

And this gem from the New York Times is just a cut above, comparing Obama's support not only to a cult but to Nixon, and deciding people don't want to vote for him because reasons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11krugman.html?ex=1360386000&en=27226393f6769d99&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

In fact, these days even the Democratic Party seems to be turning into Nixonland

...

Why, then, is there so much venom out there?

I won’t try for fake evenhandedness here: most of the venom I see is coming from supporters of Mr. Obama, who want their hero or nobody. I’m not the first to point out that the Obama campaign seems dangerously close to becoming a cult of personality.

...

One of the most hopeful moments of this presidential campaign came last month, when a number of Jewish leaders signed a letter condemning the smear campaign claiming that Mr. Obama was a secret Muslim. It’s a good guess that some of those leaders would prefer that Mr. Obama not become president; nonetheless, they understood that there are principles that matter more than short-term political advantage.

sid waddell

Foxtrol wrote: »

The time the media gave to the nonsense about Biden and Ukraine tops the time spent on all of your complaints.

As a Biden supporter, I imagine the coverage given to the fake Biden Ukraine conspiracy theory pisses you off.

Strange then you've decided your attitude towards Sanders should mirror that conspiracy theory in terms of craziness.

hotmail.com

If Biden was running for the Dail, he would be running for Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. Or the Progessive Democrats if they were still around.

sid waddell

Englo wrote: »

I actually went to look this up, since it was 12 years ago and time can play some games with memory. The results were actually quite startling... it turns out 'Bernie = cult' is basically a copy/paste job of what we saw 12 years ago. Below are just some examples:

CNN and ABC pushing that his supporters are going 'too far', are 'creepy' and are 'cult like', and mocking that his supporters would be selling flowers at airports because they're apparently like Hari Krishna's.
https://www.mediamatters.org/washington-post/cnn-repeats-smear-obama-supporters-creepy-and-cult

Here is a Politco article with some more: https://www.mediamatters.org/washington-post/cnn-repeats-smear-obama-supporters-creepy-and-cult

And this gem from the New York Times is just a cut above, comparing Obama's support not only to a cult but to Nixon, and deciding people don't want to vote for him because reasons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/opinion/11krugman.html?ex=1360386000&en=27226393f6769d99&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

It's mad the way the corporate Democratic establishment save their real ire for any Democratic candidate they think might rock the boat a little bit, rather than aiming it where it should be aimed - at Republicans.

Foxtrol

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I mean, strewth, the link you provided says projected. Literally, half a dozen times...in the headline, in the lede, the main body. The link i posted is actual exit poll results. Anyway....moving on...

Projected isn't once mentioned in the blog post I referred to.

Do you know how headlines and live blogs in general work? Because they use projected in parts doesn't mean every post is projected.

Those are the exit poll results and I saw them repeated yesterday morning on TV.

NBC News Exit Poll Desk

3d ago / 8:57 PM EST
NBC News Exit Poll: Generational divide separates Biden, Sanders supporters
Joe Biden won today’s primary by amassing an overwhelming margin among the state’s African American voters. But black Democrats’ support for Biden is far from uniform: According to the NBC News Exit Poll, the former vice president faces a robust challenge from Sanders for the votes of the youngest generation of African Americans.

Biden’s support among African American voters was strongest among those aged 65 and over: He crushed Sanders with this group, 81 percent to 8 percent. But at each step down the generational ladder, Biden’s performance with blacks worsened and Sanders improved. Among black Democrats under age 30, Sanders came within 4 points of tying Biden.

hotmail.com

It's going to be difficult for people to criticise Trump's attitude to women if they support Biden, given his creepy behaviour towards young women.

sid waddell

Which Super Tuesday states have early voting? Texas does I know. Any others? You'd imagine early voting would favour Sanders, on the day only voting Biden.

Itssoeasy

sid waddell wrote: »

Which Super Tuesday states have early voting? Texas does I know. Any others? You'd imagine early voting would favour Sanders, on the day only voting Biden.

California I think. Texas and California are the two I've heard a lot about having early voting but there may be others/all of them but the only one I know of is California.

everlast75

hotmail.com wrote: »

It's going to be difficult for people to criticise Trump's attitude to women if they support Biden, given his creepy behaviour towards young women.

How many women have accused Biden of rape?

How many marriages has Biden been through?

Has Biden been caught with a porn star?

Had Biden had an affair with a playboy bunny?

Ffs.

hotmail.com

everlast75 wrote: »

How many women have accused Biden of rape?

How many marriages has Biden been through?

Has Biden been caught with a porn star?

Had Biden had an affair with a playboy bunny?

Ffs.

The creepy behaviour was caught on camera. This isn't a comparison with Trump's deplorable attitude to women.

I have no doubt that you find Biden's behaviour equally reprehensible since you seem to get outraged about almost everything.

Itssoeasy

A poll from cbs news shows that over half of democratic voters want a candidate who can beat trump as opposed to having policies/ideas they agree with. All I can say even though it's one poll is thank **** it seems to be sinking in with them. No candidate for the democrats will be as pure as driven snow so this keeps coming up is beyond me. Donald trump is not a Normal president nor will he be a normal presidential election candidate .So democratic voters IF they want him out of office in January 2021 need to vote for the democratic nominee whoever it is in November even if it's not "your candidate" don't get the hump and stay home and then if trump does win again it'll be their fault.

Eric Cartman

Itssoeasy wrote: »

A poll from cbs news shows that over half of democratic voters want a candidate who can beat trump as opposed to having policies/ideas they agree with. All I can say even though it's one poll is thank **** it seems to be sinking in with them. No candidate for the democrats will be as pure as driven snow so this keeps coming up is beyond me. Donald trump is not a Normal president nor will he be a normal presidential election candidate .So democratic voters IF they want him out of office in January 2021 need to vote for the democratic nominee whoever it is in November even if it's not "your candidate" don't get the hump and stay home and then if trump does win again it'll be their fault.

Sadly for them I dont think anyone can topple trump in their current set. Bernie will be denied the nod , despite youth support his red credentials have no chance

O'Neill

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Sadly for them I dont think anyone can topple trump in their current set. Bernie will be denied the nod , despite youth support his red credentials have no chance

His 'red credentials' as much as FDR or John Hume? It kind of sums up how absolute f**ked up politics is atm

hotmail.com

Itssoeasy wrote: »

A poll from cbs news shows that over half of democratic voters want a candidate who can beat trump as opposed to having policies/ideas they agree with. All I can say even though it's one poll is thank **** it seems to be sinking in with them. No candidate for the democrats will be as pure as driven snow so this keeps coming up is beyond me. Donald trump is not a Normal president nor will he be a normal presidential election candidate .So democratic voters IF they want him out of office in January 2021 need to vote for the democratic nominee whoever it is in November even if it's not "your candidate" don't get the hump and stay home and then if trump does win again it'll be their fault.

This is a rather dangerous strategy given that that Biden is on record as saying that he would cut social welfare to balance the books.

I can't see working class voters in America coming out to vote for this.

markodaly

Lots of new polls coming out indicating a surge for Biden.
If he over performs and Bernie under performs its curtains for Bernie, again.

The nomination could be decided tonight and the fallout is going to be vicious.

pixelburp

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Sadly for them I dont think anyone can topple trump in their current set. Bernie will be denied the nod , despite youth support his red credentials have no chance

His brand of socialism is as "red" as FDR or many of the centrist parties in Ireland or Western Europe. Unless you're paraphrasing the presumed bias of American conservatives, calling Sanders "red" is a cheap reduction or pejorative.

Itssoeasy

hotmail.com wrote: »

This is a rather dangerous strategy given that that Biden is on record as saying that he would cut social welfare to balance the books.

I can't see working class voters in America coming out to vote for this.

Well it's one poll from one news organisation about how voters want the democratic candidate to be. The day a politician has to stick to what they said on the record will be a cold day in hell. He might have said it at some point but you can be sure he or any other politician will change like the wind if it helps them politically.

hotmail.com

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well it's one poll from one news organisation about how voters want the democratic candidate to be. The day a politician has to stick to what they said on the record will be a cold day in hell. He might have said it at some point but you can be sure he or any other politician will change like the wind if it helps them politically.

If anything I suspect he would be the type to introduce the cuts regardless if there is a downturn or not.

Working class voters can already see this. No wonder they either don't vote in gigantic numbers or side with Republicans.

rossie1977

Trump has already overseen massive social welfare cuts over psst 3 years and into the futute so any Democratic nominee will look great in comparison in this area

As far as tonight Paddy Power has Biden winning Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Sanders winning California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah and Vermont

Bloomberg not close in any state really so looks disaster of a night for him.

Water John

I think some posters here are not stating a fair analysis of the election, even from their POV. Their adopting the role of disruptors and contributions are disengious.
Winning in any state gains some kudos but at the end of tonight its the overall delegate count that will matter.

Eric Cartman

pixelburp wrote: »

His brand of socialism is as "red" as FDR or many of the centrist parties in Ireland or Western Europe. Unless you're paraphrasing the presumed bias of American conservatives, calling Sanders "red" is a cheap reduction or pejorative.

Nail onthe head no.2, hes a european democratic socialist but by 2020 US standards may aswell be stalin

markodaly

Water John wrote: »

I think some posters here are not stating a fair analysis of the election, even from their POV. Their adopting the role of disruptors and contributions are disengious.
Winning in any state gains some kudos but at the end of tonight its the overall delegate count that will matter.

In fairness, Bernie needs a decisive victory tonight to seal the nomination.
Anything less than that, you will see the Democratic ranks close in on him.
He will do well in some states, like California but he needs to knock it out of the park, not just win by 5-10%.

Water John

You're setting a bar too high for Sanders, knowing he won't be at that level. There are in effect 3 Super Tuesdays. It's delegate count that drives it.
Still bet on it going to convention.

markodaly

Bad news for Bernie.

NBC's exit poll shows just 13 per cent of voters today are 18-29 years old, compared to the 29 per cent who are over 65.

Old people vote, young people dont.

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

You're setting a bar too high for Sanders, knowing he won't be at that level. There are in effect 3 Super Tuesdays. It's delegate count that drives it.
Still bet on it going to convention.

A contested convention would be a disaster from the dems IMO. It would lead to hurt feelings all over the shop and voters of however many candidates are left and don't win with the hump and they won't turn out.

markodaly

Water John wrote: »

You're setting a bar too high for Sanders, knowing he won't be at that level. There are in effect 3 Super Tuesdays. It's delegate count that drives it.
Still bet on it going to convention.

Yes, I agree that it will go to the convention, but even then I cant see Bernie getting it.

I like the guy, seems like a decent egg. Some of his ideas have merit, but he is just too radical for the US at this time, nevermind his questionable views on Cuba and the Soveit Union.

Biden is a terrible candidate too mind you.
Bloomberg would do a good job in the WH, the best and smartest of the lot IMO, but by god he is dull, so that rules him out.

sid waddell

The US media keep talking about Biden standing for "character" and "decency", like Sanders or Warren don't have those.

"Character" and "decency" in the context they're used about Biden are code for "let's change nothing".

If you don't show character and decency in your policies you're at nothing.

Biden stands for milquetoast corporate "centrism", which was the problem in the first place.

The Democrats can surely do better than "Not Trump", which is all Biden is.

markodaly

sid waddell wrote: »

The Democrats can surely do better than "Not Trump", which is all Biden is.

Perhaps they can, but that does not mean one automaticlly supports Bernie.

rossie1977

4 more years of Trump would be a nightmare scenario for the US unless you are very rich and ultra conservative.

The question for Democrats really is do they want radical change now or elect someone who is tried and trusted in this area.

Itssoeasy

NBC news and cbs news are calling Virginia for joe Biden literally at the poll closing which seems a surprise. Bernie sanders has won Vermont which was never in doubt.

Rjd2

rossie1977 wrote: »

4 more years of Trump would be a nightmare scenario for the US unless you are very rich and ultra conservative.

The question for Democrats really is do they want radical change now or elect someone who is tried and trusted in this area.

2024 if its Biden, expect someone like Hawley or Hailey to trash him. Heck even the likes of Crenshaw, DeSantis and no don't laugh here someone like Tucker if they could choose the Dem candidate would love to run v Biden.

sid waddell

Could be a long night for Bernie I think. Virginia projected for Biden off the bat which means North Carolina will be too and it doesn't look great for him in Texas either, he'll be relying on early voting to have a chance.

Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma will definitely go to Biden.

Bernie should take California, Colorado, and Utah in addition to Vermont. That leaves Massachussetts, Minnesota and Maine. If he can take those he'll gain respectability on the night but Texas is the real big prize tonight and whoever wins that will take the real momentum from it. At the moment you'd have to say Biden will will probably win it.

Itssoeasy

sid waddell wrote: »

Could be a long night for Bernie I think. Virginia projected for Biden off the bat which means North Carolina will be too and it doesn't look great for him in Texas either, he'll be relying on early voting to have a chance.

Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma will definitely go to Biden.

Bernie should take California, Colorado, and Utah in addition to Vermont. That leaves Massachussetts, Minnesota and Maine. If he can take those he'll gain respectability on the night but Texas is the real big prize tonight and whoever wins that will take the real momentum from it. At the moment you'd have to say Biden will will probably win it.

It doesn't seem that joe Biden winning Virginia is the shock it's how early it was called. On NBC they are saying that is a sign that the momentum from South Carolina is still there.

rossie1977

Biden wins North Carolina

Itssoeasy

NBC news is calling North Carolina for joe Biden. Imagine this time last week it was a case if you believed the pundits it was a case of how far Bernie sanders would be ahead of the field after Super Tuesday. IF Joe Biden goes onto become the nominee then congreman Jim Clyburns endorsement of joe Biden will be seen as the turning point.

markodaly

My earlier prophecy is coming true.
The under 45 voters are not turning out as projected by Bernie supporters in numbers, which is a death knell for his campaign.

Its over for him.

sid waddell

Warren's beat down of Bloomberg in the debate was big for Biden because it killed Bloomberg's campaign there and then.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar were never really going to challenge, so the focus returned to Biden as the challenger to Sanders.

AllForIt

Itssoeasy wrote: »

A poll from cbs news shows that over half of democratic voters want a candidate who can beat trump as opposed to having policies/ideas they agree with. All I can say even though it's one poll is thank **** it seems to be sinking in with them. No candidate for the democrats will be as pure as driven snow so this keeps coming up is beyond me. Donald trump is not a Normal president nor will he be a normal presidential election candidate .So democratic voters IF they want him out of office in January 2021 need to vote for the democratic nominee whoever it is in November even if it's not "your candidate" don't get the hump and stay home and then if trump does win again it'll be their fault.

At the end of the day Democrat's want a candidate who will win, or who in the cold light of day think has the best chance. They went for Hillary last time not Saunders.

This Dem election is following the same pattern as the last one i.e. Saunders had a surge at the beginning but then later tapers off.

I expect to see the same thing happen again.

Would ye ever calm down. There has been no surprising results yet. Everything going precisely as predicted.

Bernie will win Maine and Minnesota. Only thing stopping him winning Mass would be Warren.

Biden was favourite in eastern states, Bernie in western.

Nothing remotely eventful has happened.

sid waddell

Bloomberg getting the young voters out in the key swing state of American Samoa.