US Presidential Election 2020

The Phantom Jipper

Out of interest, if Sanders loses heavily in Michigan and gets blown out again in Mississippi and Missouri, will any of the Sanders supporters here be looking for him to drop out and endorse Biden? Curious what the tipping point is.

Larbre34

Biden is home and hosed, the next series of primaries favour him massively. Just a question of picking a running mate and getting on with it.

A year ago I said Biden/Harris on these pages and I see no reason to change it.

Rjd2

Larbre34 wrote: »

Biden is home and hosed, the next series of primaries favour him massively. Just a question of picking a running mate and getting on with it.

A year ago I said Biden/Harris on these pages and I see no reason to change it.

Aye its done. Biden is an abomination of a candidate but he is obviously better than Trump and the Dems base have decided beating Trump not policy is more important this term.

Harris and Amy K seem the obvious choices for VP and both are the betting favs.

Bernie may as well hang on until the debate is done, doubtful Biden doesn't make a fool of himself in a 1 v 1 , but tbh he will be so far ahead and the corporate media will scream Putin~!!!, BERNIE BRO @! at anyone who points out his failings so if he were to drop out understandable.

markodaly

Biden doing very well, say goodnight Bernie, although if Biden gets taken down with Covid-19 he may still have a chance.

Attention now to the runnnig mate of Biden and I would be shocked if it was not a woman. Maybe even Warren!

Larbre34

It won't be Warren ever. Its got to be someone with a clear path to 2 terms starting in 2024.

Klobuchar is a lunatic, an irredeemable bully and staff abuser. I just can't see past Harris. Unless Gretchen Whitmer, but she seems a bit of a lightweight.

I sure would love to still be around to see the first FPOTUS be a black liberal from California and watch the Trumpers lose their tiny minds. Maybe she could convert to judaism in the meantime and make it a full house.

DreamsBurnDown

It's a shame Andrew Yang didn't get a bit more traction, a truly intelligent and accomplished candidate who is tuned in to the realities of the economy of today and tomorrow. Hopefully Biden will appoint him to a senior role.

Rjd2

Larbre34 wrote: »

It won't be Warren ever. Its got to be someone with a clear path to 2 terms starting in 2024.

Klobuchar is a lunatic, an irredeemable bully and staff abuser. I just can't see past Harris. Unless Gretchen Whitmer, but she seems a bit of a lightweight.

Kloub isn't my cup of tea, but she is very popular in the rust belt and picking her would make it even harder for Trump to win those states.

Warren's base is very small, college educated white liberals who love the NYT, what she would add to the ticket is very little.

manual_man

Bernie vs Biden isn't a mere difference of opinion among left-wing voters, it's a massive ideological divide

Expecting Bernie voters to get behind Biden - who is completely antithetical to their goals - is absurd

Things can't continue as they are. There's a political civil war on the left. One of two things will happen. Either the Bernie Sanders / AOC wing separates and establishes a 3rd Party, or they eventually take over the Democrat Party itself. But something has to give.

Biden is clearly unfit to be president. But the establishment protects the establishment. And it looks like they've decided that they'd rather lose to Trump with Biden than cede power to Sanders and the socialist progressive wing.

Midster

I saw Trumps very relaxed tone, and nothing to worry about speech on the Coronavirus earlier. And I thought to myself, they don’t have free healthcare.
Which means potentially if there is a big breakout of corona for the very first time ever, privately owned hospitals and doctors will have to be forced to take in the poor, as well as the rich.

And then it hits me that this for him is going to be his D day,

He swans a lot of stuff, but I don’t think he can afford to have millions of U.S Americans and none U.S Americans effected with corona and growing.

Never mind his arrogant sexist, racist slurs, and never mind anything else, in all reality, if he gets this wrong, he’s done for. Simple as.

But if per chance he can work it out, without crashing the economy or upsetting any more by Congress members, some of which might even be in the same political party as he is, do the absolutely impossible, and get all those private hospitals and doctors from all across the America, whatever state, working together to treat everyone as equals, the rich, the poor, the homeless, non us citizens, black and brown, whatever, and manage to get all of that to work together and give everyone equal care.
If he can do that, then he will be a hero.

What would you place your money on

Rjd2

manual_man wrote: »

Bernie vs Biden isn't a mere difference of opinion among left-wing voters, it's a massive ideological divide

Expecting Bernie voters to get behind Biden - who is completely antithetical to their goals - is absurd

Things can't continue as they are. There's a political civil war on the left. One of two things will happen. Either the Bernie Sanders / AOC wing separates and establishes a 3rd Party, or they eventually take over the Democrat Party itself. But something has to give.

Biden is clearly unfit to be president. But the establishment protects the establishment. And it looks like they've decided that they'd rather lose to Trump with Biden than cede power to Sanders and the socialist progressive wing.

Biden is awful, but the idea that Trump is strong fav against him in November is insane.


You can see the turnout today and last Tuesday and its very impressive for Biden. The majority of people don't care about how crap Biden is on policies they feel he is the best man to beat Trump. These voters are yearning for the Obama years where supposedly everyone got on.

Trump sneaked in 2016 by less than a 100 000 votes in the electorial college states so if Biden wins those suburban white voters which he looks like he has done last few weeks then its game over for Trump.

Trump for all his bluster is far from invincible, he hasn't tried to make peace with the above suburban voters who find him vulgar and instead he has doubled down on his language.

Their is also likely to be a recession this year and we have the CVirus which Trump is not handling well. Tbh I actually think in the betting Biden should be fav v Trump all said and done.

Regarding the progressive movement? They need to find a way to get the boomers to vote for them, Bernie and Warren hired people who are able to reach twitter but twitter is not real life. Bernie did better with rural whites especially last time round, what went wrong this time?

In the meantime the AOC mob can win primaries v the centre and hope demographic changes speed up the takeover.

duploelabs

Rjd2 wrote: »

.

Warren's base is very small, college educated white liberals who love the NYT, what she would add to the ticket is very little.

Small as it is, it got her to third place in the candidates

Fr Tod Umptious

Rjd2 wrote: »

Biden is awful, but the idea that Trump is strong fav against him in November is insane.


You can see the turnout today and last Tuesday and its very impressive for Biden. The majority of people don't care about how crap Biden is on policies they feel he is the best man to beat Trump. These voters are yearning for the Obama years where supposedly everyone got on.

Trump sneaked in 2016 by less than a 100 000 votes in the electorial college states so if Biden wins those suburban white voters which he looks like he has done last few weeks then its game over for Trump.

Trump for all his bluster is far from invincible, he hasn't tried to make peace with the above suburban voters who find him vulgar and instead he has doubled down on his language.

Their is also likely to be a recession this year and we have the CVirus which Trump is not handling well. Tbh I actually think in the betting Biden should be fav v Trump all said and done.

Regarding the progressive movement? They need to find a way to get the boomers to vote for them, Bernie and Warren hired people who are able to reach twitter but twitter is not real life. Bernie did better with rural whites especially last time round, what went wrong this time?

In the meantime the AOC mob can win primaries v the centre and hope demographic changes speed up the takeover.

The above is bang on.

It was mentioned by many here when there was talk about Biden running that he was the only one who could get to that demographic that is needed to swing the swing states, older, white, middle income, hard working, patriotic etc, boomers really.

And his primary results are showing that.

Dytalus

DreamsBurnDown wrote: »

It's a shame Andrew Yang didn't get a bit more traction, a truly intelligent and accomplished candidate who is tuned in to the realities of the economy of today and tomorrow. Hopefully Biden will appoint him to a senior role.

Yang is young (comparatively to the rest) and has two organisations promoting progressive causes already set up. He got a fair bit of name recognition from this campaign (again comparatively to before) and if he plays his cards right he could grow substantially. Accepting a Biden position could go one of two ways: alienate his mostly progressive base, or show new supporters that he can get work done and has the ear of moderates.

He's not done yet. I personally would have prioritised Warren or Sanders over Yang because of M4A and student debt as more immediate concerns, but automation and the UBI question is only going to get more relevant as time ticks on. I don't see Yang staying out of the political light for long.

Quin_Dub

manual_man wrote: »

Bernie vs Biden isn't a mere difference of opinion among left-wing voters, it's a massive ideological divide

Expecting Bernie voters to get behind Biden - who is completely antithetical to their goals - is absurd

Things can't continue as they are. There's a political civil war on the left. One of two things will happen. Either the Bernie Sanders / AOC wing separates and establishes a 3rd Party, or they eventually take over the Democrat Party itself. But something has to give.

Biden is clearly unfit to be president. But the establishment protects the establishment. And it looks like they've decided that they'd rather lose to Trump with Biden than cede power to Sanders and the socialist progressive wing.

It's the problem of a hard two party system.

Realistically there are 3 main groupings in the US.

There are the hard right , tea-party ultra conservatives , there are moderate centrists (from both parties) and there are the those of the far left (in US terms).

That centre group is probably the largest and most likely to vote in elections which is why Biden ends up being the candidate..

There is no chance in hell that any of the right leaning Independents or wavering GOP voters vote for Sanders , they either abstain or vote for Trump.

The Democrats need to win both sides of the that centre to win and for all his failings , Biden is the only candidate capable of that.

I would say Warren was potentially similarly capable but overall agree with that assessment.

The Nal

So what does Biden offer?

Quin_Dub

The Nal wrote: »

So what does Biden offer?

The ability to beat Trump..That's it , that's all for now..

He's not new , he's not different , but he can beat Trump.. The others cannot in the US as it exists today..

The Nal

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The ability to beat Trump..That's it , that's all for now..

He's not new , he's not different , but he can beat Trump.

Was kind of asking how? How does he beat Trump? He won't beat Trump just because you want him to.

eagle eye

He won't beat Trump because there is no way swing voters are supporting somebody in the early throws if dementia.

everlast75

eagle eye wrote: »

He won't beat Trump because there is no way swing voters are supporting somebody in the early throws if dementia.

Do you think Biden has dementia and Trump does not?

duploelabs

eagle eye wrote: »

He won't beat Trump because there is no way swing voters are supporting somebody in the early throws if dementia.

Oranges of the investigation?

Covfefe?

Not able to spell his own name or his wife's?

The Nal

Dementia aside, why would they vote him in? What does he offer? When have the US electorate ever voted out a president during full employment?

spacecoyote

The Nal wrote: »

Dementia aside, why would they vote him in? What does he offer? When have the US electorate ever voted out a president during full employment?

When has a US electorate ever had an incumbent president sitting on full employment still having a net approval rating of around -10

Given the way the economy has been for the last couple of years, I'd imagine pretty much any other president would be sitting at least +20 at this point

Water John

Biden has to reach out now to the younger progressive voter. He has to show that they have a seat at the table and their concerns are listened to and addressed.
He has even last night swung to being Presidential, that is important. Lead the country because the post is vacant ATM. He needs to indicate that he will be more a Chairman of the Board at Cabinet level. That he will appoint really strong people from a whole range of backgrounds.

ELM327

The Nal wrote: »

Dementia aside, why would they vote him in? What does he offer? When have the US electorate ever voted out a president during full employment?

Bush Snr was the last sitting POTUS to lose a second term
And that was entirely of his own doing ("No New Taxes")




Ain't no way in hell creepy joe is going to beat trump.

The Nal

ELM327 wrote: »

Bush Snr was the last sitting POTUS to lose a second term
And that was entirely of his own doing ("No New Taxes")

Ain't no way in hell creepy joe is going to beat trump.

Agree yeah. Although he presided over a recession. He won a war, a just war, hiked taxes to curb a mini recession and got voted out.

Again, no one seems to be able to say what Biden offers. Just "I hate Trump".

Quin_Dub

eagle eye wrote: »

He won't beat Trump because there is no way swing voters are supporting somebody in the early throws if dementia.

Biden is the only one of the 3 Septuagenarians running for President that has released his medical records.

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

He won't beat Trump because there is no way swing voters are supporting somebody in the early throws if dementia.

Ronald Reagan... Also there's absolutely no indication that he's suffering from dementia. It's just a repeat of the stuff that happened with Clinton.

The Nal

spacecoyote wrote: »

When has a US electorate ever had an incumbent president sitting on full employment still having a net approval rating of around -10

Given the way the economy has been for the last couple of years, I'd imagine pretty much any other president would be sitting at least +20 at this point

Reagan was on -21 in early 1983 while bringing the country out of recession with falling unemployment and won the 84 election by a landslide.

This year is going to be a Reagan Mondale type trouncing. Huge parallels between the two elections.

duploelabs

ELM327 wrote: »

Bush Snr was the last sitting POTUS to lose a second term
And that was entirely of his own doing ("No New Taxes")




Ain't no way in hell creepy joe is going to beat trump.

Funny you should mention GH Bush as it was him and Jimmy Carter who had similar approval ratings prior to the end of their first term.

Neither won reelection.

Trump has the same approval rating.

Mancomb Seepgood

The Nal wrote: »

This is going to be a Reagan Mondale type trouncing. Huge parallels between the two elections.

Walter Mondale carried Minnesota (his own state), and DC. Reagan won every other state. There is absolutely no way that is happening this time.

It's amazing how much certainty some people have that Trump winning is a done deal.Does he have a reasonable chance - of course. Biden is very much in with a shout though.

The Nal

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

Biden is very much in with a shout though.

Why? What does he offer? Can he improve the economy? Is there a war for him to come out against?

Its just the bog standard Democrat playbook. Middle ground stuff. Politics-lite.

The Nal

The Nal wrote: »

Why? What does he offer? Can he improve the economy? Is there a war for him to come out against?

Its just the bog standard Democrat playbook. Middle ground stuff. Politics-lite.

The economy is potentially entering a recession prior to the elections. Corona is likely speeding that up. Also, the Rustbelt aren't exactly feeling as if they've had their lives improved by Trump, no return of the steel industry or mining.

Also there's the dire handling of the Coronavirus in general, this is the president in a crisis.

Mancomb Seepgood

The Nal wrote: »

Why? What does he offer? Can he improve the economy? Is there a war for him to come out against?

Its just the bog standard Democrat playbook. Middle ground stuff. Politics-lite.

He is not Donald Trump. Not a lot to go on but it seems to be enough for a lot of voters to go on. As well as that, he doesn't appear to inspire hatred or dislike among a large portion of the electorate to the extent that Hillary did, and his goofiness and personal back story seem to make him somewhat relatable.

I'd prefer Sanders personally but I'm forced to admit if he can be well managed for the remainder of the campaign Biden may well be in a better position to do the one thing all Democrats want: beat Donald Trump.

The Phantom Jipper

I kind of do a double take every time I see people claim Trump is a strong favourite. Many polls had a majority of voters / high 40s wanting him impeached and removed from office. This is even before you factor in people who didn't want him removed as they wanted the election to be the mechanism that removed him from office. He isn't running against Hillary Clinton this time either. There's very little reason to call him the favourite at this stage.

eagle eye

The Phantom Jipper wrote:

I kind of do a double take every time I see people claim Trump is a strong favourite. Many polls had a majority of voters / high 40s wanting him impeached and removed from office. This is even before you factor in people who didn't want him removed as they wanted the election to be the mechanism that removed him from office. He isn't running against Hillary Clinton this time either. There's very little reason to call him the favourite at this stage.

It's the opponent is the reason he is favourite. Joe Biden has no hope of getting swing voters to the polls.
I said even before we had any named candidates that we needed somebody in the 40-55 age bracket to energise the electorate. Democrat success in the Presidential election tells you that. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, JFK, Roosevelt were all in that age bracket when they got elected first time. You'll notice I left out Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman but they were incumbents when they went for election as President first time.
The Dems need to get their house in order now and plan for 2024. You have lots of good candidates but they need to start working with them now and get them.plentubif exposure so that by the time it's back to nominations that people are interested in candidates already.
If the Democrats getting into mud slinging with Trump I think it will do untold damage to the party. They need to stay above that.

The Nal

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

He is not Donald Trump. Not a lot to go on but it seems to be enough for a lot of voters to go on. As well as that, he doesn't appear to inspire hatred or dislike among a large portion of the electorate to the extent that Hillary did, and his goofiness and personal back story seem to make him somewhat relatable.

So hes an Al Gore/John Kerry. Except 20 years older. Typical weak Democrat campaign in the post. A load of sanctimonious oul shíte.

Foxtrol

Dytalus wrote: »

Yang is young (comparatively to the rest) and has two organisations promoting progressive causes already set up. He got a fair bit of name recognition from this campaign (again comparatively to before) and if he plays his cards right he could grow substantially. Accepting a Biden position could go one of two ways: alienate his mostly progressive base, or show new supporters that he can get work done and has the ear of moderates.

He's not done yet. I personally would have prioritised Warren or Sanders over Yang because of M4A and student debt as more immediate concerns, but automation and the UBI question is only going to get more relevant as time ticks on. I don't see Yang staying out of the political light for long.

Yang came out last night and endorsed Biden. He said he has talked him through a lot of his point of view and believes Biden is listening.

Instead of the boogie man 'establishment', this is the real reason why Bernie is so toxic to endorsements from his opponents for nominee - he doesn't seem to want to ask for help of others nor try to listen to them - it is his way or the highway. This is the same reason why he has a problem connecting outside of his base.

FTA69

Sleepy Joe promising no real change and making a fool of himself every time he takes the stage.

We've been through this before; crowbarring in an establishment candidate who will engage in platitudes but has no real intention of making a real difference in the lives of ordinary people. Trump will win again, and people will learn nothing, again.

duploelabs

I really look forward to a time where the use of nicknames is consigned back to the under-7s

Foxtrol

FTA69 wrote: »

Sleepy Joe promising no real change and making a fool of himself every time he takes the stage.

We've been through this before; crowbarring in an establishment candidate who will engage in platitudes but has no real intention of making a real difference in the lives of ordinary people. Trump will win again, and people will learn nothing, again.

Crowbarring is such nonsense. Bernie is an incredibly flawed candidate who wasted 4 years firing up his small base instead of making any real efforts to broaden it. If you're claiming the voters want 'real change' then get behind a candidate that can actually bring people with them and sell the change to a broader group voters, rather than one that just targets their own little echo chamber and makes out that everyone that doesn't agree 100% with them is the enemy. Warren could have been that candidate.

everlast75

duploelabs wrote: »

I really look forward to a time where the use of nicknames is consigned back to the under-7s

I think it serves a purpose. Once I see a nickname I stop reading. Saves a lot of time.

Foxtrol wrote: »

Crowbarring is such nonsense. Bernie is an incredibly flawed candidate who wasted 4 years firing up his small base instead of making any real efforts to broaden it. If you're claiming the voters want 'real change' then get behind a candidate that can actually bring people with them and sell the change to a broader group voters, rather than one that just targets their own little echo chamber and makes out that everyone that doesn't agree 100% with them is the enemy. Warren could have been that candidate.

Agreed. And, it begs the question - was the reason for Bernie's appeal in 2016 mainly a protest vote against Hillary Clinton?

FTA69

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

Quin_Dub

ELM327 wrote: »

l creepy joe.

FTA69 wrote: »

Sleepy Joe

##Mod Note##

Cut out the nicknames please.

Thanks

everlast75

https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1237761961099759618?s=20

So putting aside who is putting this information out (some people have issues with BK) - how is this not a positive sign for Biden?

The Phantom Jipper

FTA69 wrote: »

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

I thought the same but the proof is there in the results. His campaign has been a bit of a shambles, half arsing it with no organisation and ads in some states but still cleaning up almost everywhere. He's winning state after state so his theory of the case seems to be correct.

briany

There's a great clip on Youtube that is a condensed version of the Young Turks' show for election night 2016. In the space of half an hour, they go from fairly smug about Hillary's chances to having a major meltdown. But the climax of it was host Cenk Uygur's lambasting of the DNC and their corporatism and promising to 'pulverise' it and 'rip it to shreds'. Those things have not happened, and those things will probably never happen. If the younger, idealistic folk of the USA want a real alternative, they will have to actually create one via a 3rd party.

FTA69

FTA69 wrote: »

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

He's more likely to appeal to middle of the road voters and even Republicans, Sanders realistically never had that kind of a draw.

Rjd2

FTA69 wrote: »

Meh, nickname or no, the guy is an absolute liability. The whole "electable" stuff is a myth and generally an erroneous circular argument.

"Biden is more electable"

'Why's that?'

"Cos he's the only man who can beat Trump?"

'Why's that'

"Cos he's just more electable" etc etc etc ad nauseum.

This wouldn't be so tragic if Clinton hadn't have ran on pretty much the same platform and gotten beaten by a reality TV star. Biden will get trounced, and people will carry on with the same idiocy - championing stale establishment credentials and calling people stupid for not buying into it.

I have no time for Biden and even less so for the selfish boomers who voted to **** over young people who backed Biden last night, but the turnout for Biden has been excellent last 2 Tuesdays.

Look at the Michigan numbers a battle ground state , Biden got 200 000 more votes than Clinton last time, that's is really ****ing impressive.


We have a recession on its way, a pandemic running wild, a hugely energetic Dem base, a President who hasn't expanded his base, if Trump wins its going to be really ****ing tight.

peddlelies

Biden will talk it in November provided nothing crazy happens like a major scandal