US Presidential Election 2020

Quin_Dub

duploelabs wrote: »

New poll shows Biden leading by 16 points in Michigan

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502902-poll-biden-leads-trump-by-16-points-in-michigan

That's just for Michigan , but it's still fairly significant.

If Michigan is gone for Trump his pathway to victory becomes incredibly narrow..

If you take it that Biden will win every State that Clinton won , that gives him 232 to start with. So needs ~40 EC seats to win

There are any number of combinations in play for him right now that get him over the line.

Up by +9 in Wisconsin - 10 EC Votes
Up by +16 in Michigan - 16 EC Votes
Up by +9.7 in Virginia - 13 EC Votes
Up by +4 in Florida - 29 EC Votes
Up by +3.4 in Arizona - 11 EC Votes
Up by +3 in Pennsylvania - 20 EC Votes
Up by +4.6 in New Hampshire - 4 EC Votes

So , strongly in play for 103 EC Votes , over 2.5 times what he needs to win. Basically , any combination of 3 of the above except NH and Biden is home and hosed.

Trump has a solid lead in Georgia (+7) , but it's a less that 1% lead in North Carolina and Ohio , even in Texas and Iowa his lead is only 1.5% right now.

A very hard road to victory for Trump at this point.

Tell me how

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's just for Michigan , but it's still fairly significant.

If Michigan is gone for Trump his pathway to victory becomes incredibly narrow..

If you take it that Biden will win every State that Clinton won , that gives him 232 to start with. So needs ~40 EC seats to win

There are any number of combinations in play for him right now that get him over the line.

Up by +9 in Wisconsin - 10 EC Votes
Up by +16 in Michigan - 16 EC Votes
Up by +9.7 in Virginia - 13 EC Votes
Up by +4 in Florida - 29 EC Votes
Up by +3.4 in Arizona - 11 EC Votes
Up by +3 in Pennsylvania - 20 EC Votes
Up by +4.6 in New Hampshire - 4 EC Votes

So , strongly in play for 103 EC Votes , over 2.5 times what he needs to win. Basically , any combination of 3 of the above except NH and Biden is home and hosed.

Trump has a solid lead in Georgia (+7) , but it's a less that 1% lead in North Carolina and Ohio , even in Texas and Iowa his lead is only 1.5% right now.

A very hard road to victory for Trump at this point.

I have grown to view US politics, maybe more than any other location as being more than capable of swinging like a movie plot.

Even if the Covid death toll is in the region of 200K by late September, and the BLM protests are ongoing to a greater or lesser degree, I would still not be surprised if things shifted dramatically if the Trump campaign had a couple of good debates and there was a breaking news story that undermined Biden.

For many in the US, they may see events of 2020 as being some sort of deity controlled cluster-f*ck which really had nothing to do with the President.
They'd be hugely wrong, but with FOX, OAN and others screaming that narrative, a lot of them are going to hear it.

serfboard

Tell me how wrote: »

there was a breaking news story that undermined Biden.

You can be sure that there will be a ton of "news" stories undermining Biden before the election (if there is one).

The Trump campaign's only chance of winning is to try and persuade Democrats to stay at home, but I don't think that is going to succeed.

As Michael Moore said the other night, another strong possibility is that Trump will try and "postpone" the election due to Covid.

Tell me how

serfboard wrote: »

You can be sure that there will be a ton of "news" stories undermining Biden before the election (if there is one).

The Trump campaign's only chance of winning is to try and persuade Democrats to stay at home, but I don't think that is going to succeed.

As Michael Moore said the other night, another strong possibility is that Trump will try and "postpone" the election due to Covid.

Not according to several outlets, including this one.

Trump cannot, however, unilaterally decide to cancel or postpone the November 3 general election by an executive order, under the parameters of a national emergency or disaster declaration, or even if he declared martial law.

Rjd2

People who think Trump will or even can postpone an election aren't to be taken seriously. Left wing version of Alec Jones scaring boomers about things which won't happen.

Probably the same heroes who told us Tulsi was definitely going to run as a third party to help Trump win because PUTIN!!!

Quin_Dub

Tell me how wrote: »

I have grown to view US politics, maybe more than any other location as being more than capable of swinging like a movie plot.

Even if the Covid death toll is in the region of 200K by late September, and the BLM protests are ongoing to a greater or lesser degree, I would still not be surprised if things shifted dramatically if the Trump campaign had a couple of good debates and there was a breaking news story that undermined Biden.

For many in the US, they may see events of 2020 as being some sort of deity controlled cluster-f*ck which really had nothing to do with the President.
They'd be hugely wrong, but with FOX, OAN and others screaming that narrative, a lot of them are going to hear it.

Oh there is no doubt that , with 5 Months to go a huge amount can change , but the fundamentals are quite different this time compared to 2016.

Trump is no longer the unknown quantity that people chose to "put the cat among the pigeons" as it were.

He is now a known quantity that you either see as a success or a failure - There's nobody ambivalent about the man anymore.

Also , last time , Trump gained his support in the closing weeks/months from shifting the "undecided" voters to his side.

Clinton never had a majority of voters , her lead was always less than the available undecided bucket so Trump could close the gap and win without ever having to convert existing Clinton supporters.

This time around , Biden has a lead both nationally and in the key swing states that is already more than those in the undecided camp.

So, to win Trump has to convince people who have already decided to vote for Biden to change sides.

Given the strength of feeling on both sides I really don't see how he does that in the real world.

A low turn-out and voter supression could of course help him close that gap , however things like the shambles in Georgia last week will make it harder, but not impossible for them to pull the same stroke in November as everyone will be watching it like a hawk.

pixelburp

That's the other thing; I've wondered about Trump's acolytes causing a ruckus on the back of his attempts to call Postal Voting fraudulent - but there's the opposite scenario possible. The sneak preview already occurring across the country. It's far to say off the back of these BLM protests that a sizeable proportion of the country are incensed, seething. If Trump tried to pull a fast one over the election, the numbers on the streets - and the hostility matching it - would dwarf that of these current protests. Any impropriety with the election would be like petrol on the fire of the nation's mood.

Quin_Dub

If Biden wins narrowly , expect a repeat of the Bush/Gore shambles.

Imagine a scenario where Trump has a narrow lead in a few states after the initial "live" electronic ballot counts - Florida and Pennsylvania for example.

Trump and Fox News etc. will call them for Trump and announce that he's been re-elected.

Then - over the next day or two , the mail-in ballots get counted and Biden closes the gaps and is ultimately the winner and he gets to 270 in place of Trump.

Given how Trump has been laying the groundwork around postal voting being utterly fraudulent , there will be absolute uproar and even if after the dust settled Biden was still declared winner there'll be a whole 25% plus of the population of the US that believe that the Election was stolen from them.

If the initial counts give Trump et al any window to claim victory early then there will be trouble in the event of an Biden win.

If the election were tomorrow Trump would struggle to break 200 EC votes , but there's a long time to go yet.

moon2

Rjd2 wrote: »

People who think Trump will or even can postpone an election aren't to be taken seriously. Left wing version of Alec Jones scaring boomers about things which won't happen.

To be honest I think it's naiive to believe that Trump *won't* talk about, or claim to be able to do, things which aren't within his power to accomplish. We have years of precedent to confirm that this is just something he does.

I think there's a lot of legitimate, non-dismissable, concern about what this government may attempt in order to get re-elected. I'd take these people's concerns on board, but would disregard the specific mechanism (election delay/cancellation) they're most worried about.

Quin_Dub

Rjd2 wrote: »

People who think Trump will or even can postpone an election aren't to be taken seriously. Left wing version of Alec Jones scaring boomers about things which won't happen.

Probably the same heroes who told us Tulsi was definitely going to run as a third party to help Trump win because PUTIN!!!

moon2 wrote: »

To be honest I think it's naiive to believe that Trump *won't* talk about, or claim to be able to do, things which aren't within his power to accomplish. We have years of precedent to confirm that this is just something he does.

I think there's a lot of legitimate, non-dismissable, concern about what this government may attempt in order to get re-elected. I'd take these people's concerns on board, but would disregard the specific mechanism (election delay/cancellation) they're most worried about.

Trump won't cancel the Election , but I have absolutely no confidence that State/County level election officials won't play silly buggers with opening hours and availability of Election places and so on to make it as difficult as possible for likely Democrat voters to cast their votes.

I mean look at the utter sh!thousery that went on in Virginia during a GOP Congressional primary last week

The incumbent had pissed off the local party elite because he officiated at a gay wedding a few months back between two of his staff members.

In order to get him out , they invoked some arcane rule and held the vote by "convention" instead of regular primary vote. The convention was held in a church miles from anywhere and you could only vote in person before 7pm.

Coincidentally , the church was the local church of the guy they wanted to parachute in.

The convention was held at a Lynchburg-area church near Good’s home and was the only place delegates could cast a ballot in a district that stretches from northern Virginia to the North Carolina border.

Riggleman has said a small coterie of Republican insiders were trying to rig the contest against him forcing the nomination process to be decided with a convention instead of a primary. Conventions favor more conservative candidates and have been used for years by Virginia Republicans to block moderate Republicans from winning office.

This is the kind of local level crap that will absolutely be pulled anywhere it's a tight race.

Carfacemandog

Rjd2 wrote: »

People who think Trump will or even can postpone an election aren't to be taken seriously. Left wing version of Alec Jones scaring boomers about things which won't happen.

That was said about him being able to shuffle over a hundred millions of taxpayer money into his resorts.

That was said about him being able to simply refuse to divest in these businesses during his presidency.

That was said about him being able to get away with things like calling the press enemies of the people, or openly encouraging armed uprisings against his political rivals.

That was said about him being able to use areas like the DOJ to launch illegal, made up investigations into his political opponents.

That was said about him being able to fire people like FBI directors for not doing his bidding in these kinds of matters.

That was said about elected Republican officials clearing of such acts despite openly admitting he was guilty.

That was said about him being able to withhold the likes of hundreds of millions of military aid from foreign nations for refusing to do his bidding.

That was said about him being able to have private meetings with other heads of state and keeping his own staff entirely out of the loop of these conversations, or even in the room for them.

That was said about his willingness to forcibly separate children from their parents and put them in concentration camps.

The list goes on and on and on. If you are still chirping the "he would never do that, nor would he be able to!" line regarding presidential norms or the rule of law, to give you the benefit of the doubt, you simply haven't been paying attention.

eire4

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If Biden wins narrowly , expect a repeat of the Bush/Gore shambles.

Imagine a scenario where Trump has a narrow lead in a few states after the initial "live" electronic ballot counts - Florida and Pennsylvania for example.

Trump and Fox News etc. will call them for Trump and announce that he's been re-elected.

Then - over the next day or two , the mail-in ballots get counted and Biden closes the gaps and is ultimately the winner and he gets to 270 in place of Trump.

Given how Trump has been laying the groundwork around postal voting being utterly fraudulent , there will be absolute uproar and even if after the dust settled Biden was still declared winner there'll be a whole 25% plus of the population of the US that believe that the Election was stolen from them.

If the initial counts give Trump et al any window to claim victory early then there will be trouble in the event of an Biden win.

If the election were tomorrow Trump would struggle to break 200 EC votes , but there's a long time to go yet.

No doubt if the election was this month Biden would win in a landslide. However there is 4.5 months roughly so anything can happen still one way or another. What I will say is this IMHO. If it looks like it does or anything close to the way it does now where a Biden win is certain thing then expect some big time skullduggery from the president to try and change the outcome. If he loses by a small margin then the type of scenario you talk about is very realistic. If it is a big margin then expect a scorched earth policy and all sorts of wild actions on his way out the door. If he wins again then we had better all watch out because the havoc he inflicted both within the US and internationally the past 4 years will see like a warmup by comparison.

Water John

A book by Trump's only niece, Mary L Trump out soon. She's a trained psychologist and will be giving insights into the family;
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/16/mary-trump-book-too-much-never-enough-trauma-neglect-abuse-family-details

Rjd2

Carfacemandog wrote: »

That was said about him being able to shuffle over a hundred millions of taxpayer money into his resorts.

That was said about him being able to simply refuse to divest in these businesses during his presidency.

That was said about him being able to get away with things like calling the press enemies of the people, or openly encouraging armed uprisings against his political rivals.

That was said about him being able to use areas like the DOJ to launch illegal, made up investigations into his political opponents.

That was said about him being able to fire people like FBI directors for not doing his bidding in these kinds of matters.

That was said about elected Republican officials clearing of such acts despite openly admitting he was guilty.

That was said about him being able to withhold the likes of hundreds of millions of military aid from foreign nations for refusing to do his bidding.

That was said about him being able to have private meetings with other heads of state and keeping his own staff entirely out of the loop of these conversations, or even in the room for them.

That was said about his willingness to forcibly separate children from their parents and put them in concentration camps.

The list goes on and on and on. If you are still chirping the "he would never do that, nor would he be able to!" line regarding presidential norms or the rule of law, to give you the benefit of the doubt, you simply haven't been paying attention.

He can't do such a thing without help from a Democrat controlled congress.

The other stuff he did is obviously morally repugnant but its totally unrelated to "cancelling" an election. If he does somehow manage it then blame noted Trumper Nancy Pelosi for it.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/24/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-november-election-postpone/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-suspend-elections/false-claim-trump-could-use-the-coronavirus-as-reason-to-suspend-or-postpone-the-election-idUSKBN21O2JY

sid waddell

serfboard wrote: »

You can be sure that there will be a ton of "news" stories undermining Biden before the election (if there is one).

The Trump campaign's only chance of winning is to try and persuade Democrats to stay at home, but I don't think that is going to succeed.

As Michael Moore said the other night, another strong possibility is that Trump will try and "postpone" the election due to Covid.

Much more likely it'll simply be fixed in his favour - using not just the good old tried and trusted voter suppression techniques, but voter roll hacking to disqualify voters and vote falsification.

Anybody who doesn't believe his cronies are planning out how to do that right now, and have been for a long time, is naive beyond belief.

Anybody with any sort of an interest in election integrity should be following Jennifer Cohn.

https://twitter.com/jennycohn1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

serfboard

Rjd2 wrote: »

People who think Trump will or even can postpone an election aren't to be taken seriously. Left wing version of Alec Jones scaring boomers about things which won't happen.

Joe Biden wrote:

Mark my words, I think he is gonna try to kick back the election somehow — come up with some rationale why it can't be held

So, Joe Biden is the new Alex Jones?

eagle eye

If Trump tries to postpone the election he definitely loses. It's insane to think he would attempt that and hand over the Presidency to Nancy Pelosi.

I don't think Biden came up with that on his own. Shouldn't be listening to lunatics.

loyatemu

when's he going to announce his veep pick? Could be highly significant as it's difficult to see ol' Joe serving 2 terms.

Quin_Dub

Interesting article here about the Electoral implications of the LGBTQ rights decision in the Supreme court this week and particularly about the fact that it was Gorsuch that wrote the decision

Basically they make the point that a large chunk on Trumps evangelical support is there because of the courts and his ability to shift the courts to their way of thinking - Abortion , Gay Marriage , Gay Rights etc.

Now though "their guy" Gorsuch has failed to deliver and he's just the latest in a line of supposed "conservative" judges that have failed to deliver over the last 30 years or so.

With his 29-page majority opinion in Bostock, Gorsuch blew that electoral rationale out of the water. Scholars can debate the legal ins and outs of the decision. In political terms, the result is going to be an earthquake to rival the one that reverberated throughout the right in the wake of Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the 1992 decision in which Republican appointees Kennedy, David Souter, and Sandra Day O'Connor joined with the court's liberals to uphold the reproductive rights of women. There are of course many reasons why George H. W. Bush lost his bid for re-election later that year. But an important one was demoralization among social conservatives, who felt betrayed by a conservative movement that held the presidency for 12 years, appointed six justices to the Supreme Court, and yet could not produce a concrete victory on an issue that mattered more to them than any other.

It's even possible to understand the popularity on the right of Trump's singularly combative style of politics as an expression of maximal frustration at the utter failure of conservatives to stop the courts' onward march toward progressive outcomes on social issues. The right actually wants victories on these issues — which means it wants to see decisions it considers wrongly decided overturned and majority opinions push back in the opposite direction.

What the right has gotten instead is ... not much at all. Three Republican appointees co-authored the lead plurality opinion in Casey. Kennedy, appointed to the court by Ronald Reagan, wrote the majority opinion in Obergefell v. Hodges, which declared same-sex marriage a constitutional right. And now Gorsuch himself has repeated the humiliation with Bostock.

The article basically says , the hard right evangelicals have supported the GOP for the last 30+ years in an effort to get control of the judiciary and yet in almost every major Religious/Social case before the Supreme court , not only have they lost but "Their guys" voted in opposition to the Evangelical stance.

So they question now is - Why would those people bother to vote for Trump again this time round?

There's no way this won't do further damage to Trump's already foundering re-election prospects. Why should social conservatives show up to vote for a president and a party that repeatedly raises their hopes and then dashes them? Why should they continue to give the president a pass on his morally appalling words and deeds when they're left with nothing to show for it?

This doesn't mean presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden should expect to receive a bump in support from disaffected conservative evangelicals and Catholics. But it does mean the Trump campaign needs to anticipate these voters are now far more likely to sit this one out, convinced that the outcome of the election will make little difference to them.

Social conservatives are likely to feel like they've been played for suckers. And on that they may well be right.

Rjd2

eagle eye wrote: »

If Trump tries to postpone the election he definitely loses. It's insane to think he would attempt that and hand over the Presidency to Nancy Pelosi.

I don't think Biden came up with that on his own. Shouldn't be listening to lunatics.

Biden isn't dumb, he knows Trump can't postpone the election, but he also knows their is an element online on the left who love these conspiracy theories ,keep giving them red meat.

What the left should be focusing on is how Trump and the GOP will try to cheat when it comes to voting as they have done for a long time.

Rjd2

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Interesting article here about the Electoral implications of the LGBTQ rights decision in the Supreme court this week and particularly about the fact that it was Gorsuch that wrote the decision

Basically they make the point that a large chunk on Trumps evangelical support is there because of the courts and his ability to shift the courts to their way of thinking - Abortion , Gay Marriage , Gay Rights etc.

Now though "their guy" Gorsuch has failed to deliver and he's just the latest in a line of supposed "conservative" judges that have failed to deliver over the last 30 years or so.



The article basically says , the hard right evangelicals have supported the GOP for the last 30+ years in an effort to get control of the judiciary and yet in almost every major Religious/Social case before the Supreme court , not only have they lost but "Their guys" voted in opposition to the Evangelical stance.

So they question now is - Why would those people bother to vote for Trump again this time round?

https://twitter.com/rachelbovard/status/1272971360621469699

I think that is their feelings atm.

Realistically they will show up due to Pence etc, but in 2024 the GOP primary will be very ugly due to this divide.

StringerBell

Realistically they show up for tGop either way because what else are they gonna do?

I think Brian? Summed it up quite well re the conservative v theocratic judges. I share the same feeling, particularly see Gorsuch and Kavanaugh as two perfect examples of this.

Foxtrol

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Oh there is no doubt that , with 5 Months to go a huge amount can change , but the fundamentals are quite different this time compared to 2016.

Trump is no longer the unknown quantity that people chose to "put the cat among the pigeons" as it were.

He is now a known quantity that you either see as a success or a failure - There's nobody ambivalent about the man anymore.

Also , last time , Trump gained his support in the closing weeks/months from shifting the "undecided" voters to his side.

Clinton never had a majority of voters , her lead was always less than the available undecided bucket so Trump could close the gap and win without ever having to convert existing Clinton supporters.

This time around , Biden has a lead both nationally and in the key swing states that is already more than those in the undecided camp.

So, to win Trump has to convince people who have already decided to vote for Biden to change sides.

Given the strength of feeling on both sides I really don't see how he does that in the real world.

A low turn-out and voter supression could of course help him close that gap , however things like the shambles in Georgia last week will make it harder, but not impossible for them to pull the same stroke in November as everyone will be watching it like a hawk.

In addition to the above, a key indicator is how strongly people feel about Trump is his job approval numbers. At this point only 21% strongly approve of Trump's job performance while 49% strongly disapprove. When someone feels that strongly about you it is very hard to change their mind, regardless of how much dirt you throw at your opponent. It is clearly frustrating Trump that he cant get anything to stick on Biden (just look at his rally) and even if he can find something it'll need to be earth shattering to get people to change their minds.

mitchelsontour

Living in the US and it continues to amaze me how they cannot run elections fairly, I know this is a primary but leader of the free world my a$$

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/22/politics/kentucky-poll-locations/index.html

could this be the way the GOP rig the presidential election?

Manic Moran

Apparently they are having difficulty in convincing polling station workers to gather together in a single indoor place and be visited by hundreds or thousands of random people who may or may not be carriers of COVID. What are they going to do, force them to go in at gunpoint?

The election was already delayed by over a month and they made the decision to open it up for mail-in ballots. The deadline to apply for mail-in-ballots was last week, somewhere around a quarter of all registered voters have applied for them.

It's not a conspiracy. It's a net result of a situation outside of the control of the State. If they can't get polling workers out (Would you rather the military manned the polls? I mean, I guess at least they would follow orders) all they could do would be to postpone it yet again, or maybe stretch it out over two days (eg "A-M today, N-Z tomorrow"), I'm not sure if that's permitted under the law. There's no guarantee that postponement for another month or two would be any form of an improvement over what they have now.

mitchelsontour

So going from 3700 polling stations to 170 is the answer?

Headshot

They desperately need postal voting in every state but with good reasons the Republicans are doing everything they can to stop it because they'll be destroyed....

Manic Moran

mitchelsontour wrote: »

So going from 3700 polling stations to 170 is the answer?

As opposed to what? If they can only staff that many stations, complaining about it isn't going to make more poll workers suddenly appear. There aren't many people that the State can order to do things, and I suspect that manning the stations with the Kentucky National Guard isn't going to go down well either.

They already delayed the election by a month. They gave people almost two months to request a mail in ballot. Ordinarily, mail in requires justification, they opened it up to everyone. It was a bipartisan decision at the time approved by both parties. If they delay again, there is no guarantee the same thing won't happen next month, and it will reduce the amount of time whoever ends up winning the Primary has to campaign against the Republican for November election. Unless you propose that the November election be delayed as well, I guess, but I would have even more issue with that.

What would you suggest they do?

Carfacemandog

Yeah, sorry but that staffing excuse is bull****.

Jefferson county has 760,000 people and only one single polling station; Fayette has 310,000. Both have one single polling station. Want to guess who both voted for in 2016? Clinton, of course. Want to guess which partys candidate they both voted for in the last two senate elections? The democrats. Want to guess who both counties voted for in last year's Governor election? Democrat Andy Beshear - by a combined total of 133,000 votes in an election he won by just 5,000.

Trump won every other county in KY in 2016, but in the gubernatorial election, 3 of the next 4 biggest in Hardin (108k), Warren (126k) and Kenton (164k) all went with Democrat Andy Beshear. Want to guess how many stations each of those got for these primaries? Yep, just the one.

The other of those 'next biggest 4' is Boone (129k), which went far heavier for Trump and did not vote Beshear. They somehow managed to get a second polling station, unlike all the others at or above their size.

And that's is because a lot of counties have multiple polling stations. All of the following, with populations as low as 8,500 (1.1% of Jeffersons population! That would be like Leitrim having quadruple the number of polling stations of all of Dublin) managed to get multiple stations, so no - there absolutely was not a shortage of staff to station more in Jefferson or Fayette:

Two per county: Boone County 129,000 population, Bourbon county 19k, Boyle County 30k, Butler County 12k, Campbell county 93k, Greenup County 37k, Johnson county 22k, Knox county 31k, Laurel county 60k, Livingston county 9k, Logan county 27k, Muhlenberg County 30k, Todd county 12k, Trigg county 14k, Trimble county 8.5k, Whitley county 36k

Three stations per county: Boyd County 46k, Shelby county 49k, Madison county 93k, Franklin County 51k

Four per county: Taylor county 25k, Carter County 26k, Jessamine County 53k, Lawrence county 15k.

Five per county: Pike county 58k

Six per county: Pulaski county 65k, Scott county 58k

And yet we're supposed to somehow believe that they're just simply not able to open any more than one station in each of the two largest counties that make up 25% of the entire state that also vote democrat and swung last year's gubernatorial election? Or that they can't open any more than 1 in three of the four largest counties after that, which also all swung democrat last year, but of course can somehow find a way in the one of those four that went republican and is safely the most conservative of the bunch?

How people can sit there and ignore, let alone actively defend, their country and its democracy being raped to death like that is nothing short of appalling.

Tell me how

^^^
That's a post.

Paul_Hacket

Amazing post Carfacemandog, you should be writing for the papers.

Manic Moran

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Yeah, sorry but that staffing excuse is bull****.

And yet we're supposed to somehow believe that they're just simply not able to open any more than one station in each of the two largest counties that make up 25% of the entire state that also vote democrat and swung last year's gubernatorial election? Or that they can't open any more than 1 in three of the four largest counties after that, which also all swung democrat last year, but of course can somehow find a way in the one of those four that went republican and is safely the most conservative of the bunch?

How people can sit there and ignore, let alone actively defend, their country and its democracy being raped to death like that is nothing short of appalling.

I believe there are many posts on here observing how a certain political demographic of the nation are less worried by the chinese hoax which is Coronavirus and how they tend to be more rural and conservative.

However, politics aside, would you put your name down to volunteer to be a poll worker in an American city today, knowing the duties required and the COVID transmission risks? Historically over 70% of poll workers in Jefferson County are over 60 years old, which makes them in the high vulnerability section. No wonder it's been known for over a month that Jefferson would only have one voting center. Remember, pollworkers are not county staff, they are volunteers from the community (Each county provides its own) who are paid for the day. Oh, and Jefferson County is under Democrat leadership, so good luck pinning that one-site decision on Republicans. That lawsuit filed to try to have more polling stations per county which failed last week? Filed by a Republican, Jason Names. 15,000 poll workers, who must be registered voters, are supposedly needed for Kentucky. Further, Kentucky has been suffering a shortage of volunteers even without COVID for a couple of years now.

For the comparison, Jeffeson County has 2,600 cases of COVID, 145 deaths.
To go down your list, only a single county (Boone) has double-digit death numbers. There is going to be a significant psychological impact in this.

Two per county: Boone County 129,000 population 409 cases, 17 deaths, Bourbon county 19k 10 cases, 1 death, Boyle County 30k, 23 cases, 0 deaths Butler County 12k 227 cases, 7 deaths, Campbell county 93k153 cases, 7 deaths, Greenup County 37k 14 cases, 0 deaths, Johnson county 22k 5 cases, 0 deaths, Knox county 31k 8 cases, 0 deaths, Laurel county 60k 21 cases, 2 deaths, Livingston county 9k 9 cases, 0 deaths, Logan county 27k 128 cases, 3 deaths, Muhlenberg County 30k 482 cases, 7 deaths, Todd county 12k, 17 cases, 0 deaths, Trigg county 14k 10 cases, 0 deaths, Trimble county 8.5k 5 cases, 0 deaths, Whitley county 36k 13 cases, 0 deaths

Three stations per county: Boyd County 46k 39 cases, 3 deaths, Shelby county 49k 140 cases, 4 deaths, Madison county 93k 47 cases, 1 death, Franklin County 51k 28 cases, 0 deaths

Four per county: Taylor county 25k 11 cases, 0 deaths, Carter County 26k 9 cases, 0 deaths, Jessamine County 53k 56 cases, 0 deaths, Lawrence county 15k. 2 cases, 0 deaths

Five per county: Pike county 58k 28 cases, 2 deaths

Six per county: Pulaski county 65k 56 cases, 2 deaths, Scott county 58k 35 cases, 0 deaths

Why is it hard to believe that a much higher ratio of people are going to volunteer to man a polling site in a place like Scott county than Jefferson county with figures like that? Now, granted, those are the current figures, I don't know what they were a month ago when the single location for Jefferson was announced, but I strongly suspect the ratios would have been about similar, or even stronger in Louisville.


So, to summarise.
Each county runs its own elections. Jefferson county is run by Democrats.
One Republican politician in Jefferson county sued to have more polling sites, lost in court.
Jefferson County is the State hot-spot for COVID-19, and the vast majority of its poll workers are at greatest risk of death if they contract it because they are old.
Polling is run by volunteers from the county.

And somehow the idea that Jefferson county decides it doesn't have the the resources to operate more than one polling site is the result of a Republican suppression effort.
How does that work?

Muahahaha

Tell me how wrote: »

Even if the Covid death toll is in the region of 200K by late September, and the BLM protests are ongoing to a greater or lesser degree, I would still not be surprised if things shifted dramatically if the Trump campaign had a couple of good debates and there was a breaking news story that undermined Biden.

Was wondering about this the other day and the usual October Surprise that is almost expected now with Presidential elections. But so far nothing seems to be sticking to Biden, the sexual assault allegation fell flat, Ukraine the same and the dementia thing only seems to have traction among Trumps base. What could derail him here? Trump campaign could wheel out a few more women with allegations but Trump himself is hardly clean in that regard.

Muahahaha

loyatemu wrote: »

when's he going to announce his veep pick? Could be highly significant as it's difficult to see ol' Joe serving 2 terms.

Had read an article somewhere the Veep pick is due August 1st, seems a bit late in the day but thats what it said

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The incumbent had pissed off the local party elite because he officiated at a gay wedding a few months back between two of his staff members.

In order to get him out , they invoked some arcane rule and held the vote by "convention" instead of regular primary vote. The convention was held in a church miles from anywhere and you could only vote in person before 7pm.

Coincidentally , the church was the local church of the guy they wanted to parachute in.

This is the kind of local level crap that will absolutely be pulled anywhere it's a tight race.

How does this type of stuff go on, its really hard to fathom looking in from Ireland where you have X polling stations and they're open from 8am to 10pm and thats it, no ifs no buts. I get each county runs the election locally but surely if there is trickery there is recourse to State Supreme courts? Is there anything in the Constitution about free and fair elections. It just seems mad that they can pull all sorts of tricks like moving polling stations miles away from population centres and then close them at whatever time suits them. It makes a mockery of an election , its really no better that what Putin does stuffing ballot boxes.

loyatemu

how can they have one polling station per county? I live in a town of 15K people and there are at least 6 polling locations.

pixelburp

Eff all polling stations, and a persistent, public narrative by the President and Attorney General that postal voting is probably fraudulent: November is going to be very, very VERY ugly, isn't it? If this election goes off without a major constitutional or legal "hitch" I'll be shocked. With perhaps slightly longer odds for actual violence.

These are idiot children playing with Dad's shotgun like it's a toy. The well of democracy isn't just poisoned at this stage, there's no water left to corrupt in the first place. Trump and his cohorts ARE the swamp they so loudly declared themselves opposed to.

Penn

loyatemu wrote: »

how can they have one polling station per county? I live in a town of 15K people and there are at least 6 polling locations.

It's absolutely so blatant and so obviously an attempt at voter supression... and it'll still work. That's the most disgusting thing of all in terms of what's happened in America over the past 20 years. The checks and balances, the reasonable attempt t at least appear fair and impartial.... it's all gone.

I'm guessing there is no law or guideline that X amount of polling places must be provided for Y amount of people etc, so if challenged on it, the courts will likely do nothing. They'll get away with it.

briany

pixelburp wrote: »

Eff all polling stations, and a persistent, public narrative by the President and Attorney General that postal voting is probably fraudulent: November is going to be very, very VERY ugly, isn't it? If this election goes off without a major constitutional or legal "hitch" I'll be shocked. With perhaps slightly longer odds for actual violence.

If Trump loses in November, he'll of course say it was all rigged against him. More than that, I can easily see him actively stoking civil disobedience over it on the part of his followers.

Whereas Republicanism might still believe in the peaceful transfer of power, Trumpism believes in giving two fingers to Biden, leading a protest down Penn. Avenue on inauguration day, and actively purporting to be the real president of the USA.

Manic Moran

Penn wrote: »

It's absolutely so blatant and so obviously an attempt at voter supression... and it'll still work. That's the most disgusting thing of all in terms of what's happened in America over the past 20 years. The checks and balances, the reasonable attempt t at least appear fair and impartial.... it's all gone.

Again, I reiterate. Voting is run by each county’s department of elections. Look up which party controls Jefferson County and the city of Louisville. Here’s the link showing every relevant elected position by party in the county. http://elections.jeffersoncountyclerk.org/pdfs/ElOff.pdf

Now, explain to me what is in it for the Democrats to suppress the vote there?

Call me Al

Manic Moran wrote: »

Again, I reiterate. Voting is run by each county’s department of elections. Look up which party controls Jefferson County and the city of Louisville. Here’s the link showing every relevant elected position by party in the county. http://elections.jeffersoncountyclerk.org/pdfs/ElOff.pdf

Now, explain to me what is in it for the Democrats to suppress the vote there?

I get your point completely, so I'd expect calls of support and a huge push to facilitate and encourage postal voting, to allow for situations like you describe in Jefferson county, on a bipartisan basis.
Is it being supported and actively pushed by the powers that be?

loyatemu

even in the Trump supporting districts you're talking about a handful of polling stations for up to 100K people, why so few - is it the cost of the machines? e.g. Madison County has 3 polling stations for 93K people. For comparison Westmeath with 88K people has around 50 polling stations. Party politics aside, how can you run an election like that?

Water John

We send active politicians and retired ones all over the world to observe free and fair elections, esp in new democracies. Maybe we need to send them to the US too.

Penn

Manic Moran wrote: »

Again, I reiterate. Voting is run by each county’s department of elections. Look up which party controls Jefferson County and the city of Louisville. Here’s the link showing every relevant elected position by party in the county. http://elections.jeffersoncountyclerk.org/pdfs/ElOff.pdf

Now, explain to me what is in it for the Democrats to suppress the vote there?

I didn't read back past the current page so I haven't read any of your previous posts on this. Regardless, are you honestly trying to claim that Republicans aren't at the forefront of voter supression tactics?

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/06/kentucky-votes-today-here-are-all-the-ways-mitch-mcconnell-has-made-that-harder/

Here are the major bills McConnell is refusing to hold votes on:

In March 2019, the House passed the “For the People Act,” the most significant democracy reform bill in a generation. It would make it easier to vote through policies like nationwide automatic voter registration and two weeks of early voting in every state. McConnell strongly opposed the bill, dubbing it “the Democrat Politician Protection Act,” and called the idea of making Election Day a federal holiday a “power grab” by Democrats, seemingly admitting that Republicans lose when more people vote.

In December 2019, the House passed a bill to restore and modernize the Voting Rights Act after the Supreme Court ruled in 2013 that states with a long history of voting discrimination no longer needed to approve their election changes with the federal government. It would require states like Georgia and Texas—which have slashed hundreds of polling places in recent years, leading to six-hour lines at the polls—to seek federal approval for such potentially discriminatory election changes. McConnell has taken no action on the bill for 200 days and said in 2016 that he opposed reinstating the preclearance section of the VRA.

In May of this year, the House passed the “Heroes Act,” a coronavirus relief bill that would give $3.6 billion in election aid to help states run their elections in November. This would allow states to open more polling places, buy new voting equipment to handle a surge of mail-in ballots, and equip election workers with protective gear to shield them from coronavirus. It would also require states to expand vote-by-mail and have at least 15 days of early voting to guard against the spread of COVID-19 and would give the United States Postal Service $25 million to help with vote-by-mail. McConnell has yet to schedule a vote on it, saying only that the next round of coronavirus relief should be “narrowly crafted.” Republicans have also blocked consideration of the “VoteSafe Act” by Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), which includes many similar election reforms.

McConnell has blocked three bills passed by the House aimed at preventing election interference. They would require campaigns to notify the FBI and Federal Election Commission if contacted by foreign actors and require states to use voting machines with paper backups. McConnell has been sharply criticized by election officials in his home state for blocking funding for election security.

In particular I'd note the third point. When it comes to November if coronavirus is still impacting the States as it most likely will be, the dual effect of restricting/reducing polling places and efforts to reduce main-in voting will have a significant impact.

Tell me how

Water John wrote: »

We send active politicians and retired ones all over the world to observe free and fair elections, esp in new democracies. Maybe we need to send them to the US too.

It's not a joke.
I remember a regular occurrence a few years ago where elections in some places in the middle east and Africa would be accompanied with the news that the UN or USA were sending observers.

What has gone on in America over the last period would be enough for the US to talk about the need for transparency if it happened in any other country in the world.

'Land of the Free' is looking further and further from the truth as time goes on. And they castigated Kaepernick for disrespecting the flag.

Tell me how

pixelburp wrote: »

Eff all polling stations, and a persistent, public narrative by the President and Attorney General that postal voting is probably fraudulent: November is going to be very, very VERY ugly, isn't it? If this election goes off without a major constitutional or legal "hitch" I'll be shocked. With perhaps slightly longer odds for actual violence.

These are idiot children playing with Dad's shotgun like it's a toy. The well of democracy isn't just poisoned at this stage, there's no water left to corrupt in the first place. Trump and his cohorts ARE the swamp they so loudly declared themselves opposed to.

I'm expecting that Trump's close proximity to criminal charges will play a central role in how the next 12 months plays out.

If he loses, his going quietly might be related to whether or not charges are more actively pursued. Similar in terms of how he behaves once he is out of office. If he is excessively vocal or platforming, the charges may play a part in how loud he gets.

Sad to think that justice can be influenced in this way but 'America' doesn't really want the world to see just how manipulated the highest office in the land has been over the last 4 years.

pixelburp

Oh certainly for a country that loves to loudly mythologise its love of freedom and democracy, the internal working of America's democratic principles are being shown as borderline - if not actual - tinpot, banana republic stuff. The resting behaviour of not outright illegality, but that fuzzy edged chicanery such that its chief players do everything it can to disenfranchise the populous.

If (say) the UN did send in observers? Hoo boy, could you imagine the fallout.

Manic Moran

Call me Al wrote: »

I get your point completely, so I'd expect calls of support and a huge push to facilitate and encourage postal voting, to allow for situations like you describe in Jefferson county, on a bipartisan basis.
Is it being supported and actively pushed by the powers that be?

The current situation with regards postal voting is a result of a bi-partisan deal announced two months ago. https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kentucky-mail-voting-allowed-2020-primaries/3019216001/?fbclid=IwAR0yQIHrwM4K2a9mnQ07CIscQaQtpvvotKCKyQcvHUk-FYgDc11d2SRMfwc

Kentucky is allowing all registered voters to mail in their ballots for the state's rescheduled primary election June 23 — a major bipartisan agreement designed to avoid in-person voting during the coronavirus pandemic.

Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear signed the executive order Friday after reaching an agreement with Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams. It comes weeks after a messy fight in Wisconsin that forced voters to go to the polls, leading to at least 19 of them testing positive for COVID-19.

I don't know to what extent the push was made, but both parties seemed in on it, this news article from about a month ago states:
https://www.wdrb.com/news/kentucky-pushes-online-voter-registration-absentee-ballot-requests-for-june-primary/article_e56695b8-96e7-11ea-8bad-4bb0fadfba0a.html
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The novel coronavirus is forcing Kentucky counties to change how voters will be able to safely cast ballots in the upcoming June primary.

In order to help county clerks plan accordingly, the Kentucky Board of Elections issued emergency regulations regarding the date of the primary, absentee voting and in-person voting. Many counties will have slight variations as to how and where people can vote, but a major push across the commonwealth is for voters to cast absentee ballots and avoid the polls on June 23.

It also states, relevant to the discussion on Jefferson:
The State Board of Elections is requiring all counties to reduce the number of in-person voting sites, with the expectation that there will be at least one polling place. Most counties are opting for only one centrally, conveniently located voting site, which has to be approved by the board.

I didn't read back past the current page so I haven't read any of your previous posts on this. Regardless, are you honestly trying to claim that Republicans aren't at the forefront of voter supression tactics?

That would explain the problem. The discussion has been on the lack of polling places in Kentucky, and specifically the claim by Carfacemandog that the fact that Jefferson County/Louisville has only one polling site is a result of Republican shennanigans. You responded with "It is absolutely blatant voter suppression"

Regardless, are you honestly trying to claim that Republicans aren't at the forefront of voter supression tactics?

Absolutely not. That doesn't mean that false claims should go unchallenged.

even in the Trump supporting districts you're talking about a handful of polling stations for up to 100K people, why so few - is it the cost of the machines? e.g. Madison County has 3 polling stations for 93K people. For comparison Westmeath with 88K people has around 50 polling stations. Party politics aside, how can you run an election like that?

Same explanations as above: Lack of poll volunteers and COVID concerns. Westmeath didn't have an election scheduled, that I can recall, in the midst of the pandemic (And I'm not sure who actually mans polling stations in Ireland, it's been too long)

stinkypinky

Some factions of the far left and their actions are the only reason why Trump will have a slimmer of hope at getting elected again in November. Some of the violence I see online is absolutely shocking - if they start damaging churches then they'll have poked the bear one step too far.

duploelabs

stinkypinky wrote: »

Some factions of the far left and their actions are the only reason why Trump will have a slimmer of hope at getting elected again in November. Some of the violence I see online is absolutely shocking - if they start damaging churches then they'll have poked the bear one step too far.

What makes you think they'll damage churches??

stinkypinky

duploelabs wrote: »

What makes you think they'll damage churches??

I don't think it'll happen because even those anarchists aren't stupid enough to provoke people that far, but you never know.

https://www.wionews.com/world/american-writer-shaun-king-calls-statues-of-jesus-a-tool-of-white-supremacy-urges-to-be-torn-down-307828

"American writer and civil rights activist Shaun King has said that all images of Jesus are depicted as a "white European" and urged people that it should be torn down as it is a form of "white supremacy".

The co-founder of Real Justice PAC is known to promote his views and social justice by using social media and has spoken for the 'Black Lives Matter' movement. "