US Presidential Election 2020

Gbear

pixelburp wrote: »

I think you can overstate the level to which Harris' history would play into any narrative against her. Asked back would be: did the Californian GOP leverage her personal history during any previous campaign? Harris has already had a long career, if this was really an issue it would have come up before. And if she were to be picked as VP it may be assumed she was vetted thoroughly enough that this tabloid level tattle wasn't see as potentially damaging.

I think we're in a different place than we were a few months ago with respect to police reform, and Kamala Harris has a pretty poor record on that front as I recall.


She certainly won't be anything like a sop to the left of the party.

If I'm remembering it correctly, going from fivethirtyeigth and/or vox's explorations of the data, black people don't actually really care about having a black VP, and in general, VPs generally make very little difference in terms of the outcome of elections (possibly with the exception of truly disastrous picks like Sarah Palin).

StringerBell

EE, it has been pointed out a couple of times at least now that this affair was with a man who been separated for years from his wife and you continue to portray it as an affair with a married man, it betrays your really feelings no matter how much you like to say your just playing devils advocate. In principle, on Harris I agree with you that she is not the best choice and she offers very little. She is in a safe state, she isn't particularly popular with Hispanics or Black voters, Biden doesn't need help with the black vote anyway but I just don't see the upside to Harris and for what it's worth I fully agree that Demmings would be a great choice, I'm not sure Abraham's wants it, but if she did I'd have her too.

I think Demmings offers the most via nomination as VP under the circumstances.

pixelburp

Gbear wrote: »

I think we're in a different place than we were a few months ago with respect to police reform, and Kamala Harris has a pretty poor record on that front as I recall.


She certainly won't be anything like a sop to the left of the party.

If I'm remembering it correctly, going from fivethirtyeigth and/or vox's explorations of the data, black people don't actually really care about having a black VP, and in general, VPs generally make very little difference in terms of the outcome of elections (possibly with the exception of truly disastrous picks like Sarah Palin).

Well that's the other important aspect: this is the VP we're talking about and for all the talk of Biden's age AFAIK there's no hard evidence voters would give a damn about the pick. It might account for some column inches and liberal brownie points if it's someone like Abrams, but otherwise simply won't factor into the broader narrative.

And indeed, Harris' history as AG would be a far bigger set of Red Flags, with everything going on re. Police Reform, than her personal history.

Quin_Dub

pixelburp wrote: »

Well that's the other important aspect: this is the VP we're talking about and for all the talk of Biden's age AFAIK there's no hard evidence voters would give a damn about the pick. It might account for some column inches and liberal brownie points if it's someone like Abrams, but otherwise simply won't factor into the broader narrative.

And indeed, Harris' history as AG would be a far bigger set of Red Flags, with everything going on re. Police Reform, than her personal history.

Yeah - Biden won't stand for re-election , but I don't see any real evidence that the VP pick this time around being looked at to prepare someone to run in 2024 should Biden win.

I'd be more interested in looking at who gets a role like Secretary of State under a President Biden than VP as an indicator of who might be lining up for a 2024 run.

rossie1977

I think Harris would be better as Senate leader not VP.

VP is expected to follow not lead and Harris is a leader. Her skills would be of better use in the Senate where her world class debating skills would be of full use.

eagle eye

pixelburp wrote:

And indeed, Harris' history as AG would be a far bigger set of Red Flags, with everything going on re. Police Reform, than her personal history.

Yes and that's why I'm believe Demmings is a great pick. Biden can announce that he's bringing her on board to tackle police culture and change things for the better. This is adding to your campaign in a big way imo. It's very high profile stuff and he has an African-American candidate what has experience as a police chief. It has the appearance of the right person for the job.

Quin_Dub

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes and that's why I'm believe Demmings is a great pick. Biden can announce that he's bringing her on board to tackle police culture and change things for the better. This is adding to your campaign in a big way imo. It's very high profile stuff and he has an African-American candidate what has experience as a police chief. It has the appearance of the right person for the job.

I'm not so sure.

Yes , she was a Police Chief , but her record there isn't great , specifically in relation to excessive force usage etc. and BLM have explicitly called that out.

But as Demings’s star rises, some Black Lives Matter (BLM) and other progressive activists are taking aim at her tenure as Orlando's first female police chief, which spanned 2007 to 2011, and they are questioning whether someone who spent a decades-long career in law enforcement is right for this moment.

“While she was chief of police, I felt like public policies and changes to address community policing should have been done. It was not,” said Lawanna Gelzer, president of the National Action Network’s Central Florida chapter. “We’ve had a problem here for years."

“I will go vote, but I will not vote for her if she’s on that ticket,” Gelzer added. “Biden needs to listen to the people of Orlando and of Florida and elsewhere — not law enforcement — at this time.”

So I'm not sure she helps in the way that people might think.

Water John

IWT Biden would give a significant role to a VP. If nothing else, it would lessen the burden on himself. The same would go for all his Cabinet picks.

everlast75

There are inklings of the GOP starting to distance themselves from Trump, as expected when the pole numbers start to drastically decline.

We have the calls for the facts surrounding Russia paying the taliban to kill U.S. troops from prominent Republics, information leaking about how ill prepared trump has been for international calls, McConnell urging people to now wear masks, something that Trump refuses to do or endorse.

I could be wrong, but I think the Reps see the writing on the wall and are starting to think "self preservation".

Rjd2

Rjd2 wrote: »

1 He needs Biden to drop out. Its easy to point out his flaws, but he is shutting out Trump where it matters, the swing states and the suburbs.

2 He needs to figure out a genuinely ground breaking strategy to get the job numbers roaring again. This would be a miraculous rabbit out of the hat.

Culture wars, xenophobia,judges etc aren't going to stop him or the Republicans getting routed November, he needs to go big etc.

So Plan A.

Biden seems fine and he is not taking the bait that Trump wants him to by repeating jargon about getting rid of the police a strategy which polls well on twitter but not in the real world. Another issue is the nicknames yes its childish but crooked Hilary stuck to her, while sleepy Joe doesn't work whatsoever.

Biden is boring? Err after 4 years of non stop culture war ****e that will do for many voters.

Plan B

https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1277627169838161921

lol.

This is not merely a Trump failing. GOP donors for the most part are obsessed with libertarian "pull yourselves up by your bootstrap " bollocks that even in these horrific times they look at the unemployment numbers and wonder what is the issue after all they got took care of with the last bail out.

I dunno maybe all those unemployed Republican voters when worrying about paying their bills in the next few months might forget about their issues and focus on statues and reassure their loved ones that the Benevolent free market will magically pay their rent.

Fiscal conservatism baby.

Fr Tod Umptious

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I'm not so sure.

Yes , she was a Police Chief , but her record there isn't great , specifically in relation to excessive force usage etc. and BLM have explicitly called that out.



So I'm not sure she helps in the way that people might think.

But what Black Llives Matter thinks about her on policing does not actually matter.

It's what the swathes of people who in general support their local police and who believe in law and order think about her on policing that matter.

What ever a VP pick is worth in the grand scheme of things I don't know, but a woman of colour with a policing background is a good place to start if you want to find some middle ground.

Quin_Dub

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But what Black Llives Matter thinks about her on policing does not actually matter.

It's what the swathes of people who in general support their local police and who believe in law and order think about her on policing that matter.

What ever a VP pick is worth in the grand scheme of things I don't know, but a woman of colour with a policing background is a good place to start if you want to find some middle ground.

Maybe , but Black voter turn-out is critical for Bidens success.

We know he's going to get 90%+ of that voting block , but if a load of them stay home because they don't like the idea of a Police chief with a history of downplaying "police brutality" being on the ticket then that is going to have a key negative impact overall.

He might gain a few suburban moms , but lose more urban Black/Hispanic votes.

eagle eye

Quin_Dub wrote:

Maybe , but Black voter turn-out is critical for Bidens success.

He already has a large number of black voters.

Quin_Dub

eagle eye wrote: »

He already has a large number of black voters.

He does , but he needs them to actually turn-out and vote.

They didn't actually vote for Clinton - The voting rate among Black voters was well down on the Obama years. Biden needs to push back towards that level fo voter activity.

Black voters aren't going to vote for Trump in large numbers under any circumstances , but if they stay at home it's just as bad.

serfboard

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Black voters aren't going to vote for Trump in large numbers under any circumstances , but if they stay at home it's just as bad.

Which is why it has been, and will be, Republican strategy to try and ensure that as many of them stay at home as possible.

Or failing that, that voting is so difficult for them that they give up.

Trump's possible path to victory depends on voter suppression.

eire4

serfboard wrote: »

Which is why it has been, and will be, Republican strategy to try and ensure that as many of them stay at home as possible.

Or failing that, that voting is so difficult for them that they give up.

Trump's possible path to victory depends on voter suppression.

No question voter suppression, purging of voter roles, closing of polling stations, shortening or hours etc all will be on steroids this year with the Republicans.

Fr Tod Umptious

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Maybe , but Black voter turn-out is critical for Bidens success.

We know he's going to get 90%+ of that voting block , but if a load of them stay home because they don't like the idea of a Police chief with a history of downplaying "police brutality" being on the ticket then that is going to have a key negative impact overall.

He might gain a few suburban moms , but lose more urban Black/Hispanic votes.

But you're assuming that all black voters support BLM and the lawless actions that we have seen over the past month or so.

You assume that they all see the likes of George Floyd as a saint rather than the criminal he actually was.

There are millions of right minded black voters out there sick and tired of gangs running their neighborhoods, who would be very happy to see greater police action to clean up the streets.

There are millions of black voters looking at what is going on in CHAZ and saying WTF.
Hippie white kids and gang bangers running amok while the police chief (a woman of colour) can only look on because some liberal white woman won't allow the police do their job.

They would just love a woman of colour with a background in policing to be VP.

Igotadose

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But you're assuming that all black voters support BLM and the lawless actions that we have seen over the past month or so.

You assume that they all see the likes of George Floyd as a saint rather than the criminal he actually was.

There are millions of right minded black voters out there sick and tired of gangs running their neighborhoods, who would be very happy to see greater police action to clean up the streets.

There are millions of black voters looking at what is going on in CHAZ and saying WTF.
Hippie white kids and gang bangers running amok while the police chief (a woman of colour) can only look on because some liberal white woman won't allow the police do their job.

They would just love a woman of colour with a background in policing to be VP.

Fwiw the Spd closed down the CHAZ/CHOP yesterday

Carfacemandog

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

But you're assuming that all black voters support BLM and the lawless actions that we have seen over the past month or so.

86% of black people do, along with 77% of Hispanics, 75% of Asians and 60% of white people.

You assume that they all see the likes of George Floyd as a saint rather than the criminal he actually was.

I've seen this line used umpteen times, but it's almost always by someone trying to deligitimise these protests rather than anyone supportive of or partaking in them.

George Floyd was no saint, but we've all see the video of how he was murdered and what it was for, and it resonated with a lot of people in the US who took to protest. The police do not get to be judge, jury and executioner, and that just as easily could have been a guy with no violent crime history selling black market cigarettes, a nurse tucked away in bed with her partner at night, a HR professional playing video games with her nephew, a law public school official notifying an officer of his legally held gun in the car with him, or any of a long line of people needlessly killed by them. This happening closely on the back of several of those aforementioned incidents, as well as the furore over Ahmaud Arberys murderers (which included a retired cop) almost getting off Scott free for chasing a lack man in their truck and shooting him to death on video while calling him a"f***ing n*gger" being, echoing Trayvon Martin from a few years back, just meant Floyds murder was the straw that broke the camels back. Street criminal or upstanding citizen doesn't matter, as it didn't matter to the cops that killed him and the others mentioned above.

Black people feel anxious as f*** in the US right now. They are seeing police not only pull them over or frisk them at much higher rates, but are seeing viral videos of and stories of police literally breaking into their houses at night and murdering them (and their partners, not the cops, get charged for said murder as happened with Breonna Taylor's boyfriend initially). They're seeing racists like the McMichael family and George Zimmerman literally being able to murder black people on the street without any provocation at all, and get away without so much as being brought in at the scene (the McMichaels thankfully now face murder charges, but only because their friends lawyer threw them under the bus by leaking that video).

They're not allowed peacefully protest or they get castigated and risk their jobs and careers, they're just expected to sit there and accept that police might come to their house and murder them with no consequence, or that someone in the street might decide they look suspicious (what with their being black and all) and be allowed to murder them in the eyes of the law, slat least so long as its not caught on video. The protests and riots we've seen were the only logical place this was ever going to lead to.

The police's response to those protests (in stark contrast to their response to the lockdown protests only weeks earlier), as well as Trumps ramping up the divisiveness to the point of gassing the clergy (and more recently, thanking 'white power!' chants), only fuelled them further and got them further support as the numbers at the top of my post indicate.

Associating as being in support of those protests is worth more than associating as being against them. Hence why we have seen a shift in everything from major sports leagues, to large corporations, to even states with the taking down of statues and changing of flags etc, over such a short space of time.

Fr Tod Umptious

Carfacemandog wrote: »

86% of black people do, along with 77% of Hispanics, 75% of Asians and 60% of white people.

I've seen this line used umpteen times, but it's almost always by someone trying to deligitimise these protests rather than anyone supportive of or partaking in them.

George Floyd was no saint, but we've all see the video of how he was murdered and what it was for, and it resonated with a lot of people in the US who took to protest. The police do not get to be judge, jury and executioner, and that just as easily could have been a guy with no violent crime history selling black market cigarettes, a nurse tucked away in bed with her partner at night, a HR professional playing video games with her nephew, a law public school official notifying an officer of his legally held gun in the car with him, or any of a long line of people needlessly killed by them. This happening closely on the back of several of those aforementioned incidents, as well as the furore over Ahmaud Arberys murderers (which included a retired cop) almost getting off Scott free for chasing a lack man in their truck and shooting him to death on video while calling him a"f***ing n*gger" being, echoing Trayvon Martin from a few years back, just meant Floyds murder was the straw that broke the camels back. Street criminal or upstanding citizen doesn't matter, as it didn't matter to the cops that killed him and the others mentioned above.

Black people feel anxious as f*** in the US right now. They are seeing police not only pull them over or frisk them at much higher rates, but are seeing viral videos of and stories of police literally breaking into their houses at night and murdering them (and their partners, not the cops, get charged for said murder as happened with Breonna Taylor's boyfriend initially). They're seeing racists like the McMichael family and George Zimmerman literally being able to murder black people on the street without any provocation at all, and get away without so much as being brought in at the scene (the McMichaels thankfully now face murder charges, but only because their friends lawyer threw them under the bus by leaking that video).

They're not allowed peacefully protest or they get castigated and risk their jobs and careers, they're just expected to sit there and accept that police might come to their house and murder them with no consequence, or that someone in the street might decide they look suspicious (what with their being black and all) and be allowed to murder them in the eyes of the law, slat least so long as its not caught on video. The protests and riots we've seen were the only logical place this was ever going to lead to.

The police's response to those protests (in stark contrast to their response to the lockdown protests only weeks earlier), as well as Trumps ramping up the divisiveness to the point of gassing the clergy (and more recently, thanking 'white power!' chants), only fuelled them further and got them further support as the numbers at the top of my post indicate.

Associating as being in support of those protests is worth more than associating as being against them. Hence why we have seen a shift in everything from major sports leagues, to large corporations, to even states with the taking down of statues and changing of flags etc, over such a short space of time.

There are a number of reasons why.

Firstly Trump, he is as you point out a divisive leader, it's not very hard to get a mob organised to be against Trump, or for someone, some corporation etc to do something that is seen as anit-Trump.

Remember there were BLM protests when Obama was president but they faded.

Secondly it's what you might call the Twitter mob and the pressure that everyone is put under to support certain causes lest they or their brand be targeted.

Do you really believe the English Premier League agree with Black Lives Matter (capital B, capital L, capital M) ?
They do in their hole, but they have to be literally seen to in order to avoid being called out by the mob.

Dissenting opinions are not allowed.

Today is read that a NASCAR driver will be sponsored by a Trump re-election PAC.
It will be interesting to see how that goes down in the NASCAR heartland and with the Twitter mob.

So I'm guessing there are millions of people of all races who believe black lives matter (small b, small l, small m), but far less who believe in Black Lives Matter (capital B, capital L, capital M).

duploelabs

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

There are a number of reasons why.

Firstly Trump, he is as you point out a divisive leader, it's not very hard to get a mob organised to be against Trump, or for someone, some corporation etc to do something that is seen as anit-Trump.

Remember there were BLM protests when Obama was president but they faded.

Secondly it's what you might call the Twitter mob and the pressure that everyone is put under to support certain causes lest they or their brand be targeted.

Do you really believe the English Premier League agree with Black Lives Matter (capital B, capital L, capital M) ?
They do in their hole, but they have to be literally seen to in order to avoid being called out by the mob.

Dissenting opinions are not allowed.

Today is read that a NASCAR driver will be sponsored by a Trump re-election PAC.
It will be interesting to see how that goes down in the NASCAR heartland and with the Twitter mob.

So I'm guessing there are millions of people of all races who believe black lives matter (small b, small l, small m), but far less who believe in Black Lives Matter (capital B, capital L, capital M).

On the Nascar driver, he's not sponsored by Trump. He's a trump supporter with no sponsors so he just fills up his car with trump stickers

Fr Tod Umptious

duploelabs wrote: »

On the Nascar driver, he's not sponsored by Trump. He's a trump supporter with no sponsors so he just fills up his car with trump stickers

I think that has changed in the last day or so
According to this link it's actually a PAC (Patriots of America) that will be sponsoring him

https://sports.yahoo.com/pac-supporting-donald-trump-sponsoring-corey-la-joie-for-9-nascar-cup-series-races-203636285.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALdlgUPoqVOfwCl6dclqGZJPbhb4BS4_zqtcneUjyfYFKgmdWIxNuRdCVhtpqd8oUNaZQjwKeKVAZ07BundFwi5iKG1n5LEtICNcl3P5KbVIPwfC3boXZmCl0w9sAmLm5BfZ6oQoYGsAVae-5RjwHIayYEcGOVmnzPsYL47xVm1y

Carfacemandog

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

There are a number of reasons why.

Firstly Trump, he is as you point out a divisive leader, it's not very hard to get a mob organised to be against Trump, or for someone, some corporation etc to do something that is seen as anit-Trump.

Remember there were BLM protests when Obama was president but they faded.

Secondly it's what you might call the Twitter mob and the pressure that everyone is put under to support certain causes lest they or their brand be targeted.

Do you really believe the English Premier League agree with Black Lives Matter (capital B, capital L, capital M) ?
They do in their hole, but they have to be literally seen to in order to avoid being called out by the mob.

Dissenting opinions are not allowed.

Today is read that a NASCAR driver will be sponsored by a Trump re-election PAC.
It will be interesting to see how that goes down in the NASCAR heartland and with the Twitter mob.

So I'm guessing there are millions of people of all races who believe black lives matter (small b, small l, small m), but far less who believe in Black Lives Matter (capital B, capital L, capital M).

Had Obama called for the protesters to be "crushed" after openly encouraging other protesters only weeks earlier, had them gassed to clear the way for photo ops etc, those protests would have got a lot worse, just as these have. But Obama didn't, because Obama wasn't the walking disaster that Trump is.

Your post is forgetting that many of these same corporations, major sports leagues, social media sites etc actually sided with Trump early in his presidency in the stance of BLM protests and stuck with him or didn't move against on them until this all blew up in recent weeks.

Was it "the twitter mob" behind it then too, when players were banned from peaceful protest in many of the biggest leagues across America?

The fact is these entities follow public opinion. They thought standing for BLM etc back in 2016 or 2017 would damage their brand, because they thought there were more a against it than for - and/or that those against it would take it to further extremes (see: all the Trump supporters boycotting sport leagues and burning Nike shoes etc). Now they have seen that was wrong, as public support - across all races - are heavily in favour of these protests. Hence their apologising in some instances for not being on board with it earlier.

And hence NASCAR (the entity, not just a driver) banning the confederate flag that many Trump supporters in the South hold so dear as a symbol of slavery and hate.

These protests have proven popular across demographics and hugely effective so far, and I think some that were (often smugly) expecting otherwise when they first broke out in late May are struggling to process that.

everlast75

On an unrelated point, I would thoroughly enjoy Harris dismantling Pence in the VP debates..

Rjd2

https://spectator.us/jared-kushner-conundrum-scapegoat-saboteur/

Writer relatively connected to Trump land.

For those who don't know serious bad blood between Jared and the Trumpier element of Trump's people who feel Jared is watering down Trump.

Its a huge issue Trump has at the moment. Jared is right that Trump has to stop the bleeding with the moderate suburbs ,,,but when Tucker Carlson is breaking viewing records where he spends quite a lot of time hammering the moderate wing of the party its a really tough balancing act for Trump.

KiKi III

Trump ought to be more concerned about older white voters (the ones who turn out in every election) currently preferring Biden by a 7 point margin.

This group is most at risk from Trump’s incoherent strategy on coronavirus; most likely to have seen friends and family die from it; most likely to be scared about it.

If Trump continues to alienate them, he’s screwed.

Rjd2

KiKi III wrote: »

Trump ought to be more concerned about older white voters (the ones who turn out in every election) currently preferring Biden by a 7 point margin.

This group is most at risk from Trump’s incoherent strategy on coronavirus; most likely to have seen friends and family die from it; most likely to be scared about it.

If Trump continues to alienate them, he’s screwed.

Yeah I posted this a few months ago when the numbers came out he was struggling with seniors thus what makes his risky approach to the virus even wilder. Those older voters are the most high risk demographic, something as simple as mask wearing would have been been a gesture to them at least.

StringerBell

Reads like there's an actual attempt to place Kushner as part of the wider deep state, which will be quite the challenge for various reasons.

KiKi III

KiKi III wrote: »

Trump ought to be more concerned about older white voters (the ones who turn out in every election) currently preferring Biden by a 7 point margin.

This group is most at risk from Trump’s incoherent strategy on coronavirus; most likely to have seen friends and family die from it; most likely to be scared about it.

If Trump continues to alienate them, he’s screwed.

My one concern is that older people may be less likely to go into a polling center because of the virus.

StringerBell

StringerBell wrote: »

Reads like there's an actual attempt to place Kushner as part of the wider deep state, which will be quite the challenge for various reasons.

Well he is Jewish, that's usually enough for certain people.

Muahahaha

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Do you really believe the English Premier League agree with Black Lives Matter (capital B, capital L, capital M) ?
They do in their hole, but they have to be literally seen to in order to avoid being called out by the mob.

The Premier League care mainly about their revenues which are funded by TV companies who then sell advertising to blue chip corporates. These companies do not want their brand associated with racism and its well documented by now that football has a problem with racism. You only need to look at whats going on with the Facebook boycott at the moment, Zuckerberg refused to moderate white supremacist content so Coca Cola, Kraft and Uniever pulled their advertising, Facebook shares dropped by 7% and suddenly Zukerburg is scrambling to fix the problem. The PL knows they have to deal with the racism problem or they could suffer a similar fate.

Rjd2 wrote: »

Yeah I posted this a few months ago when the numbers came out he was struggling with seniors thus what makes his risky approach to the virus even wilder. Those older voters are the most high risk demographic, something as simple as mask wearing would have been been a gesture to them at least.

yeah very true and Id imagine its especially pronounced in Florida which has a lot of senior citizens retied there. There are 29 electoral college in play in Florida which is huge. By Fox News own poll Biden is leading Trump by 9% in Florida which is well outside the margin of error. If Trump doesnt win Florida it makes his path to the White House really difficult.

Rjd2

Muahahaha wrote: »

yeah very true and Id imagine its especially pronounced in Florida which has a lot of senior citizens retied there. There are 29 electoral college in play in Florida which is huge. By Fox News own poll Biden is leading Trump by 9% in Florida which is well outside the margin of error. If Trump doesnt win Florida it makes his path to the White House really difficult.

Florida with Covid probably requires more sophisticated analysis than it is getting online. De Santis did well with nursing homes initially especially compared to New York however due to speediness re opening and carelessness from the general public its a little dicey at the moment.

Hopefully the numbers of those in hospitals stablise for everyone's sake.

However no matter how well De Santis does or not, Florida was always going to be tough for Trump as seniors really like Biden.

He can win without Florida, but it would be near impossible.

StringerBell

If Florida goes blue on election night that's the end of the road for Donnie, without it I really can't see a path for him to victory.

He isn't going to turn any state that was blue red, and he is under water in too many swing states to pull them all out, not to mention he is going to have to spend time and resources securing Texas of all places incredibly.

If Texas by some miracle goes blue I think it will be one hell of a crushing night for entire GOP with the senate going blue too because if Texas falls I think it's likely Georgia will have gone too.

The senate races are very interesting obviously, long way to go but my hopes have begun to rise just a little lately. He's killing himself and Moscow Mitch is nothing if not a power hungry pragmatist and damn good at the dark arts of politics. He will cut Trump loose if the numbers don't pick up by September/October and look to secure the senate whatever way he can even if that means going against dear leader if he is seen to be dragging down the senate candidate's.

Trump is expendable at the end of the day, same as all of them are. If he is seen to have no hope and only being a stone around candidate's necks he will be jettisoned, we could even see the deal scenario to go, let Pence pardon him and make a late push to save some seats.

Tell me how

StringerBell wrote: »

The senate races are very interesting obviously, long way to go but my hopes have begun to rise just a little lately. He's killing himself and Moscow Mitch is nothing if not a power hungry pragmatist and damn good at the dark arts of politics. He will cut Trump loose if the numbers don't pick up by September/October and look to secure the senate whatever way he can even if that means going against dear leader if he is seen to be dragging down the senate candidate's.

Someone should be paying a very close eye to the money raised by the Trump campaign. Can't see them throwing that away like Bloomberg did if the result is a looking like a formality 4- 8 weeks out from the election.

TomOnBoard

Tell me how wrote: »

Someone should be paying a very close eye to the money raised by the Trump campaign. Can't see them throwing that away like Bloomberg did if the result is a looking like a formality 4- 8 weeks out from the election.

Agreed. . And in particular, pay attention to attempts by the Trump and associate grifters to 'rest' campaign funds in their own pockets as the prospects of a Trump win recede. I'm sure that ways will be found to spend millions on alleged campaign related activities (as much as possible in Trump businesses) whose sole function will be to siphon off funds from contributions that have been donated.

And, now that Kanye West has tweeted that he is entering the 2020 Presidential Race, apparently with the 'support' of Elon Musk, the ****show that is US politics enters a whole new phase of craaaazy...

https://mobile.twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1279575273365594112

StringerBell

Tell me how wrote: »

Someone should be paying a very close eye to the money raised by the Trump campaign. Can't see them throwing that away like Bloomberg did if the result is a looking like a formality 4- 8 weeks out from the election.

His fund raising is great like, and then you have him holding campaign rally's on the taxpayer dollar too unsurprisingly.

I would say you will see a lot of campaign funds make their way into his and his associates private accounts and businesses over the next few weeks and they will look to bill the state for as much as possible.

beggars_bush

StringerBell wrote: »

His fund raising is great like, and then you have him holding campaign rally's on the taxpayer dollar too unsurprisingly.

I would say you will see a lot of campaign funds make their way into his and his associates private accounts and businesses over the next few weeks and they will look to bill the state for as much as possible.

Surely they will have lined their pockets very well over the last few years

StringerBell

beggars_bush wrote: »

Surely they will have lined their pockets very well over the last few years

Oh absolutely, there's plenty of info out there on it.

It has been one hell of a grifting machine presidency.

sid waddell

Muahahaha wrote: »

The Premier League care mainly about their revenues which are funded by TV companies who then sell advertising to blue chip corporates. These companies do not want their brand associated with racism and its well documented by now that football has a problem with racism. You only need to look at whats going on with the Facebook boycott at the moment, Zuckerberg refused to moderate white supremacist content so Coca Cola, Kraft and Uniever pulled their advertising, Facebook shares dropped by 7% and suddenly Zukerburg is scrambling to fix the problem. The PL knows they have to deal with the racism problem or they could suffer a similar fate.

I find it very ironic that any Trump supporters would have a problem with corporations aligning themselves with anti-racism because of public pressure and potential negative consequences for these businesses if they don't.

Of course the Premier League, the NFL and other corporations are making a business decision to align themselves with the Black Lives Matter protests.

This is literally the libertarian free market in action.

Libertarianism holds that there should be little or no regulation - the classic libertarian position was to oppose the Civil Rights Act because it held that businesses should have the right to refuse to serve anybody for whatever reason they wanted - it held that a business owned by whites should be able to refuse to serve blacks if they hated blacks.

The logic was that there would be negative consequences for such businesses, that they would lose custom, and be forced to change their ways by the market if they wanted to stay in business.

But the thing is that a lot of people who call themselves libertarians use the term as a cynical and convenient cloak to mask racism, and are not libertarian at all, they're just racists.

And then when the libertarian free market actually does work as it should, they call it "the mob".

sid waddell

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Agreed. . And in particular, pay attention to attempts by the Trump and associate grifters to 'rest' campaign funds in their own pockets as the prospects of a Trump win recede. I'm sure that ways will be found to spend millions on alleged campaign related activities (as much as possible in Trump businesses) whose sole function will be to siphon off funds from contributions that have been donated.

And, now that Kanye West has tweeted that he is entering the 2020 Presidential Race, apparently with the 'support' of Elon Musk, the ****show that is US politics enters a whole new phase of craaaazy...

https://mobile.twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1279575273365594112

I have no doubt there will be many books written on the money being corruptly siphoned off by Trump and his cronies during the last five years.

I have long believed there would be a disruptor third candidate planted by Trump with the intention of splitting the Democratic vote.

West is a very famous black rapper, is pro-Trump, has a monstrous ego, is willing to say anything and do anything for publicity and money, and is corporate to his fingertips while having the ability to play the fake "outsider".

We'll have to see if he actually follows through with it, but he fits the pattern of a cynical disruptor perfectly.

briany

sid waddell wrote: »

I have no doubt there will be many books written on the money being corruptly siphoned off by Trump and his cronies during the last five years.

I have long believed there would be a disruptor third candidate planted by Trump with the intention of splitting the Democratic vote.

West is a very famous black rapper, is pro-Trump, has a monstrous ego, is willing to say anything and do anything for publicity and money, and is corporate to his fingertips while having the ability to play the fake "outsider".

We'll have to see if he actually follows through with it, but he fits the pattern of a cynical disruptor perfectly.

His disruptive potential could be tempered by the fact that everyone knows he's good friends with Trump. A candidate such as Kanye might garner support from people who probably weren't going to vote to begin with, but I don't know how many he'd get to say, "I was going to vote for Biden, even if just to stop Trump being re-elected, but now I'm going to vote for Kanye, even though I think it'll probably help Trump get re-elected."

MadYaker

Kanye is drawing attention to himself because he's about to squat down and squeeze out another turd of an album (and i say that as a "fan" in the past) hard to know what effect it would have. But in reality he won't actually run.

Rjd2

Kanye has been vocally MAGA while his wife has worked with Trump. His supporters like many hugely poppy type rappers are white, he has missed the registration dates for many states also.

He will hurt neither of the front runners whatsoever.

TomOnBoard

Rjd2 wrote: »

Kanye has been vocally MAGA while his wife has worked with Trump. His supporters like many hugely poppy type rappers are white, he has missed the registration dates for many states also.

He will hurt neither of the front runners whatsoever.

If he is a disruptor candidate, he only needs to take votes away from Biden in marginal states. Many such are still open to him being put on the ballot.

rossie1977

Its a PR stunt. He has as much chance of running as Hulk Hogan did in 98 https://www.mandatory.com/culture/1170577-hulk-hogan-announced-candidacy-president-18-years-ago-today/amp

StringerBell

TomOnBoard wrote: »

If he is a disruptor candidate, he only needs to take votes away from Biden in marginal states. Many such are still open to him being put on the ballot.

Why do you think he would take any votes from Biden?

I would also be pretty confident this is a PR stunt from Kanye, because you see Kanye is an artist's and I'm just he or his wife are looking to flog some of their latest offerings.

I will always love that rapper and producer Kanye West, the guy who made the college drop out and 808 & heartbreak and a few of the other albums so it is genuinely sad to me to see what he has become these days.

I think he has been diagnosed bi polar? I mean Jesus whatever problems you had before getting mixed up with that parasitic family they are only going to be magnified

sid waddell

StringerBell wrote: »

Why do you think he would take any votes from Biden?

I would also be pretty confident this is a PR stunt from Kanye, because you see Kanye is an artist's and I'm just he or his wife are looking to flog some of their latest offerings.

I will always love that rapper and producer Kanye West, the guy who made the college drop out and 808 & heartbreak and a few of the other albums so it is genuinely sad to me to see what he has become these days.

I think he has been diagnosed bi polar? I mean Jesus whatever problems you had before getting mixed up with that parasitic family they are only going to be magnified

Here's four reasons;

i) Name recognition
ii) entertainment factor
iii) playing the fake "outsider"
iv) he's black so would peel off some black votes

If he runs it will be to try and tip the balance in favour of Trump in the swing states. No other reason, well, to feed his monstrous ego and his bank balance as well, I suppose.

It could be a publicity stunt but I would not write it off until we know more. Things are bat**** crazy in the US and you can't rule anything out.

TomOnBoard

StringerBell wrote: »

Why do you think he would take any votes from Biden?

I would also be pretty confident this is a PR stunt from Kanye, because you see Kanye is an artist's and I'm just he or his wife are looking to flog some of their latest offerings.

I will always love that rapper and producer Kanye West, the guy who made the college drop out and 808 & heartbreak and a few of the other albums so it is genuinely sad to me to see what he has become these days.

I think he has been diagnosed bi polar? I mean Jesus whatever problems you had before getting mixed up with that parasitic family they are only going to be magnified

Again, I'm saying IF he ran solely as a disruptor:

His popularity (albeit from an entertainment perspective) lies mostly with Millenials. This group had a greater affinity for Bernie rather than Joe, and wouldn't be big Trump supporters. So, if Kanye captures some votes originally destined for Bernie, along with a slice of African American votes that would otherwise have voted Joe, those get taken out of possible Joe votes. In a marginal state, a relatively small number of votes can separate number 1 from number 2. For example in 2016, Trump beat Clinton by just over 110,000 votes. Gary Johnson's vote in FL was twice that difference at 207,000 votes. Even Jill Stein took 65,000 while write in votes amounted to 25,000. That's the power of disruptors.... Not that they have a chance of winning themselves... Just that they can **** it up for someone else...

Remember, we're only talking about un-committed middle ground voters here... No hardened loyalty to either camp...also Protest voters.. Think Ming Flanagan back in the day... and, Ming actually won elections....

StringerBell

Okay, other than him being black so I guess will peel away some of the black voters in areas of the country even though the vast majority of the black voters who will not be voting for Trump will not be swayed by one of his boot lickers you might accept? I can't accept the rest though.He has been a Trump supporter, a very vocal one. He is all about the MAGA, if anything surely he peels voters off the Trump side as the latest novelty act with name recognition and celebrity?

I disagree with the idea that a third candidate will automatically be a problem for Biden but not for Trump.

It has been crystallised at this stage, it is a binary choice. It's gonna be Trump or its gonna be Biden. The undecideds are not actually as big as they were last time round, most of them are breaking for Biden, Kanye West is not going to be the reason they decide to vote for the third candidate for the ****s n giggles.

I understand people tend to get overly hyped up on all things Trump related and I understand completely the gravity of the moment we are living through but I'd be alot more concerned with the lengths Trump will go to tip the scales in his favour than I would be Kanye West

Maybe I'm wrong and I can damn well state as a fact that if Oprah or Jay Z or Colin Kaepernick even was gonna run if be a lot more convinced they would do Biden a lot of damage by taking some of the black vote for sure, and obviously some of the ****s n giggles votes cause it's a celebrity.

Edit: and to Tom's post which I've just seen. Being honest if that were true that his voting share would be made up of voters who would have been closer to Bernie than Biden, or Trump (which I disagree with but for arguement sake let's stipulate) and they decide that rather than vote for the guy who could become president that isn't named Donald Trump they are gonna vote for Kanye fricken West then it's all over anyway, knowing what has happened in the last 4 years and knowing how much worse it is going to get then what could be done to save the country from itself in reality?

sid waddell

West wouldn't peel away any* Trump voters.

Trump voters are either out or all in at this stage.

The game is voter suppression, including using Covid as a weapon, vote splitting, and if necessary, vote falsification, and if all that fails, legal chicanery and/or violence to deny democracy and keep Trump in power.

*When I say any, I mean the amount of Trump voters he would take would be infinitesmal.