Donald Trump is the President Mark IV (Read Mod Warning in OP)

carrigan

spacecoyote wrote: »

aloyisious wrote: »

TV reports on the markets for the past few days has been that bonds were going up in price due to the increase in interest rates and there has been a reverse effect on share prices over the same few days.

That would be standard market movements in general.

When markets are booming people buy stocks & sell bonds.  When stock markets turn south people buy government bonds as they're seen as a safe investment (generally you're always guaranteed a pay off on a government bond even if that payoff is generally lower than a high performing stock)

That's not what happening now though, this is more reminiscent of 2008 where stocks and bonds both fell in value. Bond prices move inversely to yields and prices have been dropping for the past month based on market expectations of higher interest rates.  Higher interest rates is one of many factors driving the current weakness in stocks, the effect of the US/China trade war on Tech is the biggest factor.

RIGOLO

Water John wrote: »

Stock Exchange DOW down over 3% today. Maybe it will bounce back up a bit tomorrow but could equally signal the turning. Will Trump take ownership of it if that happens?
Will he go to Florida to throw kitchen rolls at the plebs after the hurricane?

Trump doesnt have to take ownership of it.

The Fed does.

spacecoyote

carrigan wrote: »

That's not what happening now though, this is more reminiscent of 2008 where stocks and bonds both fell in value. Bond prices move inversely to yields and prices have been dropping for the past month based on market expectations of higher interest rates.  Higher interest rates is one of many factors driving the current weakness in stocks, the effect of the US/China trade war on Tech is the biggest factor.

Sorry, haven't been watching market prices that closely in the last couple of weeks, so worked off the OP statement that bond prices were going up rather than yields

Rhineshark

carrigan wrote: »

That's not what happening now though, this is more reminiscent of 2008 where stocks and bonds both fell in value. Bond prices move inversely to yields and prices have been dropping for the past month based on market expectations of higher interest rates.  Higher interest rates is one of many factors driving the current weakness in stocks, the effect of the US/China trade war on Tech is the biggest factor.

Usually, yes, but bear in mind that stocks are currently being sold off so the usual shift into Treasury bonds isn't happening as quickly. It's a steep drop but more of a correction than a rout.

The Fed has been unusually interventionist for the past decade since the recession and us now reverting to a more background role regarding the markets.

It doesn't seem to be panic stations yet anyway. If it does get more routy, investors will switch to bonds.

RIGOLO

Rhineshark wrote: »

Usually, yes, but bear in mind that stocks are currently being sold off so the usual shift into Treasury bonds isn't happening as quickly. It's a steep drop but more of a correction than a rout.

The Fed has been unusually interventionist for the past decade since the recession and us now reverting to a more background role regarding the markets.

It doesn't seem to be panic stations yet anyway. If it does get more routy, investors will switch to bonds.

Fed reverting to a background role ... surely your joking.
They have already increased rates 3 times already this year, with public comments from he chairman indicating a further hike to come.

And your missing the whole point of this 5 day losing streak, there is no flight to fixed income. Whilst not unique it is rare. And in this day and age of quant computing algorithms and super computer fibre optic etc etc automated trading, things happen very very quickly...


Trump has been warning about the Fed actions for a few weeks now, some could call it deep state attempting to knock his economic progress. The other fella got them to hold interest rates at near 0% for 8 years. First sign of success for Trump and they pull the rug out from under the American people, even though inflation is within the Feds own targets.

But like all stories theres many things at play, the tech overvaluation, Google censorship issues, hardware chip spying, to name but afew.

Interestingly the Russell 2000 did drop but not as much , and thats a small business index for America..

Buckle up for the ride .

Hurrache

RIGOLO wrote: »

Trump doesnt have to take ownership of it.

The Fed does.

Wait a sec, you tried to give Trump credit for it a couple of weeks ago. It must be difficult living such a confused life.

Wanderer78

RIGOLO wrote:

The Fed does.

Preparing for the next down turn maybe, possibly caused by trade wars?

everlast75

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Preparing for the next down turn maybe, possibly caused by trade wars?

Can't be that - they are easy to win!??!?

Leroy42

So hold on, now the Fed is a DNC corrupt body. SO that is the FBI, CIA, EC, election itself, the judicial system.

And somehow the GOP keep getting elected to the highest positions and keep these institutions in place.

Explain to me what the MAGA is supposed to do since the US is obviously a cesspool of corruption. Or did the corruption only take root during the Obama years, you know the POTUS that never got anything done?

ECO_Mental

RIGOLO wrote: »

Trump doesnt have to take ownership of it.

The Fed does.

He has taken ownership of it from day one.....even before he got into office he took ownership of it and was caught out when he took the figures for the economy growth from the moment he got nominated not when he took office.



But anyway it doesn't matter that he threw petrol on the fire for the last two years it still wont be his problem or fault (IN HIS OWN MIND!!!!)he will blame Obama, the Fed, the Chinese, the Dems, Clinton, NTY, etc etc anybody but himself obviously :P

RIGOLO

Hurrache wrote: »

Wait a sec, you tried to give Trump credit for it a couple of weeks ago. It must be difficult living such a confused life.

Not really. Theres no confusion, only reason.

Trump Administration has been the main factor in the booming economy and surging RECORD stock market. Little debate there.

The Fed has been raising interest rates (and Trump has called them out on it) and the market has spooked.

If you care to post why things are different to the above, and why they kept it near 0% for 8 years of Obama pumping 50-80 billion a month into Wall St and adding 10trillion to the US national debt in that same period, yet the Fed feel the need to up it 4 times now that Trumps in power with HIS economy booming and inflation is in their target range and no significant wage pressure seen , feel free.

But as I said earlier theres a myriad of other factors at play also, the Fed actions being the biggest one in my opinion but one we should also consider is that investors may be taking their money/profits home before the mid-terms, if the Dems win the House it will spook investors that the economic recovery may be stalled by the Dems.

Still all and all its a functioning democracy , I trust things to wok out, especially under the Trump Administration , they have proven time and time again they can navigate thru troubled waters and everything the main stram media and totalitarian liberal left throw at them.

everlast75

RIGOLO wrote: »

Not really. Theres no confusion, only reason.

Trump Administration has been the main factor in the booming economy and surging RECORD stock market. Little debate there.

The Fed has been raising interest rates (and Trump has called them out on it) and the market has spooked.

If you care to post why things are different to the above, and why they kept it near 0% for 8 years of Obama pumping 50-80 billion a month into Wall St and adding 10trillion to the US national debt in that same period, yet the Fed feel the need to up it 4 times now that Trumps in power with HIS economy booming and inflation is in their target range and no significant wage pressure seen , feel free.

But as I said earlier theres a myriad of other factors at play also, the Fed actions being the biggest one in my opinion but one we should also consider is that investors may be taking their money/profits home before the mid-terms, if the Dems win the House it will spook investors that the economic recovery may be stalled by the Dems.

Still all and all its a functioning democracy , I trust things to wok out, especially under the Trump Administration , they have proven time and time again they can navigate thru troubled waters and everything the main stram media and totalitarian liberal left throw at them.

And while you are on here, typing away about you think Trump's goons are fantastic for ratcheting up the deficit, there are literally kids being taken away from their parents and put up for adoption, while their parents are deported.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1049717388348932102

How the **** do you reconcile your support for Trump while this human abuse is happening? Do you have a moral compass at all?

Hurrache

RIGOLO wrote: »

and why they kept it near 0% for 8 years of Obama pumping 50-80 billion a month into Wall

I suspect the only answer acceptable to you is 'deep state'.

Leroy42

The economy required rates to stay low during Obama as he tried, very successfully, to first stop the big recession and then return the US to growth. At some point even the GOP and Trump supporters will have to acknowledge what a fantastic job he did cleaning up after W Bush destroyed the US economy.

But the recovery was, due to the depth of the recession and the ingrained problems within the system, slow and precarious and as such it needed to be managed properly. Again, this was done wonderfully. Not as fast as Trump and others who had no idea of the sheer complexity of the issue would like, but it laid the foundation that is the US Economy today.

So Trump gets in, and despite everything going fine was right is seeing that the economy could start to push ahead. Instead of a measured and thought out approach, the threw trillions of dollars at the already extremely wealthy corporations in order to flood the economy with money. So of course inflation is set to rise. Its economics 101. There was simply no need, apart from Trump wanting to claim credit, to try to supercharge to the economy.

Of course supercharging it means that jobs etc that may have come on stream over a number of years happen quicker, and for the people concerned that is great. But there is a price for that. Wages will start to rise (something Trump has been keen to take credit for) which leads to higher prices, which leads to inflation.

That is when the Fed is supposed to step in. Unlike Trump, the Fed take a long-term view. They don't have to wait to see the outcome, they have models and history and know exactly what is going to happen.

RIGOLO

Hurrache wrote: »

I suspect the only answer acceptable to you is 'deep state'.

not really

I clearly stated TWICE in fact , that there was a myriad of reasons/factors.

RIGOLO wrote: »

But like all stories theres many things at play, the tech overvaluation, Google censorship issues, hardware chip spying, to name but afew.

RIGOLO wrote: »

But as I said earlier theres a myriad of other factors at play also, the Fed actions being the biggest one in my opinion but one we should also consider is that investors may be taking their money/profits home before the mid-terms, if the Dems win the House it will spook investors that the economic recovery may be stalled by the Dems.

I think the totalitarian left are tiring out.
I think they are losing some of their fight.

swampgas

Here's a video clip of Trump saying the FED has "gone crazy". Great timing for the Mid-Terms.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2018/oct/11/donald-trump-says-the-fed-has-gone-crazy-video

Mind you, he is only doing to the US what he has done to many of his businesses - bankrupting it.

Leroy42

Rigolo, why do you think the Fed left rates at 0% during the Obama term? You seem to be suggesting something sinister in that line.

RIGOLO

Leroy42 wrote: »

The economy required rates to stay low during Obama as he tried, very successfully, to first stop the big recession and then return the US to growth. At some point even the GOP and Trump supporters will have to acknowledge what a fantastic job he did cleaning up after W Bush destroyed the US economy.

But the recovery was, due to the depth of the recession and the ingrained problems within the system, slow and precarious and as such it needed to be managed properly. Again, this was done wonderfully. Not as fast as Trump and others who had no idea of the sheer complexity of the issue would like, but it laid the foundation that is the US Economy today.

So Trump gets in, and despite everything going fine was right is seeing that the economy could start to push ahead. Instead of a measured and thought out approach, the threw trillions of dollars at the already extremely wealthy corporations in order to flood the economy with money. So of course inflation is set to rise. Its economics 101. There was simply no need, apart from Trump wanting to claim credit, to try to supercharge to the economy.

Of course supercharging it means that jobs etc that may have come on stream over a number of years happen quicker, and for the people concerned that is great. But there is a price for that. Wages will start to rise (something Trump has been keen to take credit for) which leads to higher prices, which leads to inflation.

That is when the Fed is supposed to step in. Unlike Trump, the Fed take a long-term view. They don't have to wait to see the outcome, they have models and history and know exactly what is going to happen.

You have lost the debate if thats your closing arguement.

The Fed oversaw the Financial Crisis of 2008 .
And to get out of it they had to add 10Trillion to the US national debt.
For 8 years pumping 50-80billion per month into Wall Street and you think it had to happen that way.
Economics 101 I dont think so.

Thats a first to put the Fed and 'know exactly whats is going to happen " in the same sentence.

This is just a smash and grab by the Fed , to get their hands on the dollars that Trump has put back in workers pockets .

Trump Administration has put a foundation back under the American economy , and many people dont like it, for many different reasons.

Wanderer78

RIGOLO wrote: »

You have lost the debate if thats your closing arguement.

The Fed oversaw the Financial Crisis of 2008 .
And to get out of it they had to add 10Trillion to the US national debt.
For 8 years pumping 50-80billion per month into Wall Street and you think it had to happen that way.
Economics 101 I dont think so.

Thats a first to put the Fed and 'know exactly whats is going to happen " in the same sentence.

This is just a smash and grab by the Fed , to get their hands on the dollars that Trump has put back in workers pockets .

Trump Administration has put a foundation back under the American economy , and many people dont like it, for many different reasons.

i think you mean a smash and grab by the financial institutions that actually caused the crash in the first place by flooding our economies with cheap credit, heavily indebting us.

kilns

Watch out for Trump today making a big announcement, he needs to turn the markets around as this is one of his major things coming into the mid terms, if the markets are in correction and are down 10-20% during the mid terms this will be a disaster for him and the GOP.  The quick fix is good news on China but China are digging in for a fight so he is in a bind as the Fed (rightly) will ignore any demands he makes to them
In the short to medium term the USA is in for a huge shock once the economy turns, Trump is not prepared for it at al, he has shown in his business dealings throughout his life he is a bad manager of risk

ECO_Mental

RIGOLO wrote: »

Not really. Theres no confusion, only reason.

Trump Administration has been the main factor in the booming economy and surging RECORD stock market. Little debate there.

The Fed has been raising interest rates (and Trump has called them out on it) and the market has spooked.

If you care to post why things are different to the above, and why they kept it near 0% for 8 years of Obama pumping 50-80 billion a month into Wall St and adding 10trillion to the US national debt in that same period, yet the Fed feel the need to up it 4 times now that Trumps in power with HIS economy booming and inflation is in their target range and no significant wage pressure seen , feel free.

But as I said earlier theres a myriad of other factors at play also, the Fed actions being the biggest one in my opinion but one we should also consider is that investors may be taking their money/profits home before the mid-terms, if the Dems win the House it will spook investors that the economic recovery may be stalled by the Dems.

Still all and all its a functioning democracy , I trust things to wok out, especially under the Trump Administration , they have proven time and time again they can navigate thru troubled waters and everything the main stram media and totalitarian liberal left throw at them.

That's hilarious:D literally only one min before you posted this where I said that Trump will blame everybody but himself and I list off a few of the culprits

"But anyway it doesn't matter that he threw petrol on the fire for the last two years it still wont be his problem or fault (IN HIS OWN MIND!!!!)he will blame Obama, the Fed, the Chinese, the Dems, Clinton, NTY, etc etc anybody but himself obviously "



you ticked off 3 of them straight away in your blame game Obama, The Dems and the Fed. You also mentioned the MSM and I had NYT so Im counting this also.....Trump will fully own this correction no matter who he tries to blame


Oh Ford are looking to lay off thousands of jobs atm adn they have lost €1 billion in profits this year alone with the trade war he alone decided to start despite a century of history showing that trade wars NEVER work.

Igotadose

So much wrong:

RIGOLO wrote: »

And to get out of it they had to add 10Trillion to the US national debt.

No - the FED (under Bernanke) chose this. They could've let the world economy freeze and Congress could've instituted draconian austerity. Fed didn't choose to do that. Or, are you one of those pro-austerity types? What would you have had the Fed do differently? 800k job losses per month at the end of 2008, if you recall, with the dollar plummeting and wall street tanking.

This is just a smash and grab by the Fed , to get their hands on the dollars that Trump has put back in workers pockets .

Congress and the Senate 'oversaw' the banking crisis. Years of mismanagement under GWB let the banksters get away with murder. Appointing corporate tools like John Roberts and Alito helped get things like class action suits gutted. All this came home to roost. The Fed had nothing to do with it. Here's a read for you from a reporter who covered the entire Trump campaign and did a great job describing in this article what happened when Lehman failed: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/financial-crisis-ten-year-anniversary-723798/


Fed's raising interest rates to control inflation. Very common thing done - Reagan did this, happens all the time. The Fed kept them low to stimulate growth in order to bring the country out of recession. Mission accomplished, now let's raise interest rates. In fact, this will happen because of the 1.5tn debt increase due to Trump that's coming this month.

The tGOP's letting the banksters run riot again, however, so expect a recession soon. The current market uptick and jobs uptick are ephemeral, nothing's changed to the 'core' of the US economy - it's becoming more automated, less manufacturing based, and still has huge structure problems like the inability to provide healthcare to the entire population.

swampgas

everlast75 wrote: »

And while you are on here, typing away about you think Trump's goons are fantastic for ratcheting up the deficit, there are literally kids being taken away from their parents and put up for adoption, while their parents are deported.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1049717388348932102

How the **** do you reconcile your support for Trump while this human abuse is happening? Do you have a moral compass at all?

I've no idea where RIGOLO stands on it, but I've heard more than one Trump supporter say that the risk to illegal migrants of losing their kids is a great deterrent. Which is marginally better than another popular opinion I've heard, to simply shoot anyone "looking illegal" crossing the border on sight.

rossie1977

If you are going to use the word totalitarian over and over at least understand what the word means.

Pa8301

rossie1977 wrote: »

If you are going to use the word totalitarian over and over at least understand what the word means.

At least he's stopped combining it with liberal.

Leroy42

Rigolo still hasn't explained why they think the FED are corrupt (they seem to be moving to they are incompetent, which may be true but is totally different) or given any reason as to why they would be corrupt in favor of Obama yet are suddenly totally against Trump.

These things always seem to be so obvious to the likes of Rigolo, yet Trump consistently gets surprised and can think of no way to curtail it.

Again, it seems that once again Rigolo is accepting that Trump is changing nothing really as has little to no ability to actually change anything, instead retreating to blaming all those that are more powerful.

Captain Obvious

everlast75 wrote: »

She's guilty until proven innocent, but Kavanaugh.....

Kavanaugh was just a bit of attempted rape though. According to GOP women, every young man gets up to similar hijinks.

everlast75 wrote: »

And while you are on here, typing away about you think Trump's goons are fantastic for ratcheting up the deficit, there are literally kids being taken away from their parents and put up for adoption, while their parents are deported.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1049717388348932102

How the **** do you reconcile your support for Trump while this human abuse is happening? Do you have a moral compass at all?

The sickening thing about this is Trump supporters were the ones pushing the pizza gate nonsense and here is Trumps administration literally abducting kids and giving them to people.

Penn

Captain Obvious wrote: »

Kavanaugh was just a bit of attempted rape though. According to GOP women, every young man gets up to similar hijinks.





The sickening thing about this is Trump supporters were the ones pushing the pizza gate nonsense and here is Trumps administration literally abducting kids and giving them to people.

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1049915432898052096

https://twitter.com/silverbluefin/status/1050019313338462208

aloyisious

RIGOLO wrote: »

Trump doesnt have to take ownership of it.

The Fed does.

So should we expect Don to be totally silent on the issue of the market and forgo any statements that he is responsible for the many great advances in it and the effect his tax cuts had in getting people involved in investment with the spare dollars in their pockets?

hill16bhoy

"Europe is way too far to the left, it needs to be more like the US", or something something.

The mad thing is that that US graph isn't nearly unequal enough for at least a couple of posters here.