Donald Trump is the President Mark IV (Read Mod Warning in OP)

Manic Moran

Despite all this, some of which I brought up in my post, you ignored all of that and went on about tax increases on fuel. Sometimes things are bigger than ones narrow personal self interest. Do you really think all that, including the demonisation of the CIA and FBI, the siding with Putin over the security services, is really less important the a few cents on your fuel?

Two points.

1) That was two separate topics in one post. One topic was on the nature of choosing between the candidates on the ballot, the other was on how governments can manipulate the nature of a vote. This second topic evolved into my longer post later. They are two entirely different issues, and yet again, I find that readers are having difficulty figuring this out. Maybe I need to start writing in block capitals “THIS IS NOW A TOPIC CHANGE IN THE SAME POST” or something. I wouldn’t have thought it necessary, but this is now the second time.

2) Yes. When it comes to winning votes, the population are going to look to themselves first, and only second will they look to more ethereal matters of national morality. Is it less important? Maybe. Is it more relevant to the voter? Absolutely, and we have precedent. Governor Gray Davis (Democrat) tripled annual car tax here in California. The average tax per vehicle went from $70 to $210. Even the latter is pretty cheap by Irish standards. Voters kicked him out of office (only the second time in the entire US that a governor has been recalled) and replaced him with a Republican, Arnie whose very first action in office was to repeal that tax raise. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-schwarzenegger-repeals-car-tax-2003nov18-story.html And this is in California, as blue as a State as they come. The same, as I said, for the recall of the Josh Fullerton (D) http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-newman-gastax-repeal-20180607-story.html which lost the Democrats their supermajority in the State legislature with the most recent tax hikes.

So whatever you (or I) may think of the moral merits of various parties as a whole, or how a D or R may -overall- be better, a failure to understand that a couple hundred dollars in a voter’s pocket a year -does- lead to significant and tangible election results is going to lead to unexpected results. Trump colors this election, yes. But more important to most voters are the positions which their House representative are going to support, of which support for Trump is only one.

Walter Bishop

Igotadose wrote: »

Here's the thing. As comedian Dave Chappelle said recently, Russia didn't make America racist. Trump's just riding the wave, but he didn't create it. Even if in some crazy long-shot result there are enough in Congress to impeach Trump and he's impeached, the next guy'll be worse. I don't mean Pence, either, but whoever comes after them.

Trump's the symptom, not the cause. He might be a catalyst for serious ugliness but he isn't the creator.

The best that can happen is D control of both houses. It'll be a mirror of Obama's presidency then, very little done that the WH wants. Of course, since we're talking Trump WH it's a good thing if they get very little done!

Sad to say, but this is spot on. Trump has re-written what you can say or do and still get elected in the US.



The way will now be much clearer for an intelligent populist to get elected, someone who can actually get things done and can keep his mouth shut and stay off Twitter.

Gbear

Igotadose wrote: »

Here's the thing. As comedian Dave Chappelle said recently, Russia didn't make America racist. Trump's just riding the wave, but he didn't create it. Even if in some crazy long-shot result there are enough in Congress to impeach Trump and he's impeached, the next guy'll be worse. I don't mean Pence, either, but whoever comes after them.

Trump's the symptom, not the cause. He might be a catalyst for serious ugliness but he isn't the creator.

The best that can happen is D control of both houses. It'll be a mirror of Obama's presidency then, very little done that the WH wants. Of course, since we're talking Trump WH it's a good thing if they get very little done!

I've been following along with Fivethirtyeight on the elections and a point they brought up today was that people polled who said that healthcare was the most important issue to them tend to be democrats, but it was gender issues, race, immigration and culture that was the primary motivator for republican voters and not the economy.

However, I think it's important to remember that whether you look at the UK or the US, "liberal", or "lefty" positions are the majority politics of the country. There's a hard core of reliable votes that the Tories, the Republicans, or issues such as Brexit can command, but they're only something like a third of the actual population.

Mississippi has two seats up for grabs in the senate, and they're heavily favouring the Republican nominees, despite the state being nearly 40% black. It should be solid blue every election year based on who represents who's interests, but turnout among black people is atrocious, as it is with other minorities and youth voters.

America isn't majority racist and the republicans don't represent the majority interests (they don't even really represent the interests of most of their supporters), but when you take into account that a sizeable chunk of the population don't actually participate in their democracy, then we have a situation where a minority of far right ideologues, business interests, theocrats and racists control the country. Of course, that's worsened by active voter suppression and disenfranchisement, but primarily, it's a lack of engagement.

Leroy42

Manic Moran wrote: »

Two points.

1) That was two separate topics in one post. One topic was on the nature of choosing between the candidates on the ballot, the other was on how governments can manipulate the nature of a vote. This second topic evolved into my longer post later. They are two entirely different issues, and yet again, I find that readers are having difficulty figuring this out. Maybe I need to start writing in block capitals “THIS IS NOW A TOPIC CHANGE IN THE SAME POST” or something. I wouldn’t have thought it necessary, but this is now the second time.

It is not separate. You want it to be because it makes it easier to argue your position. Your position is that you want to separate the 'local' from the 'federal'. In a normal functioning democracy that is a perfectly valid point, but neither the POTUS or the GOP are trying to hide the fact that a vote for a GOP candidate in the 'local' is a vote for the overall GOP and the way that Trump is carrying on.

Manic Moran wrote: »

2) Yes. When it comes to winning votes, the population are going to look to themselves first, and only second will they look to more ethereal matters of national morality. Is it less important? Maybe. Is it more relevant to the voter? Absolutely, and we have precedent. Governor Gray Davis (Democrat) tripled annual car tax here in California. The average tax per vehicle went from $70 to $210. Even the latter is pretty cheap by Irish standards. Voters kicked him out of office (only the second time in the entire US that a governor has been recalled) and replaced him with a Republican, Arnie whose very first action in office was to repeal that tax raise. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-schwarzenegger-repeals-car-tax-2003nov18-story.html And this is in California, as blue as a State as they come. The same, as I said, for the recall of the Josh Fullerton (D) http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-newman-gastax-repeal-20180607-story.html which lost the Democrats their supermajority in the State legislature with the most recent tax hikes.

An again, in any normal time this is perfectly reasonable behaviour. People should vote on the issues that effect them. But these are not normal times.You have an openly racist, ignorant POTUS in charge. You yourself have accepted that he should be ignored. Now these same supporters that claim it is only 'local' issues, are the very same that complain about NFL players kneeling, want abortion rights across the country curtailed. So they are more than happy to vote on national issues when it suits them but when pressed how they can support Trump like to claim that it is nothing to do with him and it local car tax.

I am sure that those in minority communties will be great succor knowing that you allowed people like Trump to remain in charge and reduce their rights simply to get lower car tax!

Manic Moran wrote: »

So whatever you (or I) may think of the moral merits of various parties as a whole, or how a D or R may -overall- be better, a failure to understand that a couple hundred dollars in a voter’s pocket a year -does- lead to significant and tangible election results is going to lead to unexpected results. Trump colors this election, yes. But more important to most voters are the positions which their House representative are going to support, of which support for Trump is only one.

I totally agree that normally this would be a telling factor. In chosen between two similar candidates then the one that is going to deliver best to you is the one to vote for. But the Dems are in no way similar to Trump or the GOP that continue to facilitate him. We know the positions that the GOP are going to support, they have shown it over the last 2 years. They are going to support whatever Trump wants.

8-10

Gbear wrote: »

Mississippi has two seats up for grabs in the senate, and they're heavily favouring the Republican nominees

I think that's a little misleading

I'd argue that the seat that is up for Special Election today could easily go to a run-off as nobody will get the required 50%. You are correct that the 2 Republican candidates will combined get most of the vote but the candidate with the highest number of votes could easily be the Democrat, Mike Epsy, who was the first black congressman for the State before serving in the Clinton administration and is still very popular down there.

In a run-off he could struggle but if tonight goes the way of the Democrats you could have a lot of focus on this run-off for the next few weeks if it's possible it could play a role in Senate control.

I don't think the Democrats will get close enough but this isn't a complete shoe-in Republican seat for the incumbent.

Manic Moran

Manic Moran wrote: »

Governor Gray Davis (Democrat) tripled annual car tax here in California. The average tax per vehicle went from $70 to $210. Even the latter is pretty cheap by Irish standards. Voters kicked him out of office (only the second time in the entire US that a governor has been recalled) and replaced him with a Republican, Arnie whose very first action in office was to repeal that tax raise. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-schwarzenegger-repeals-car-tax-2003nov18-story.html And this is in California, as blue as a State as they come. The same, as I said, for the recall of the Josh Fullerton (D) http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-newman-gastax-repeal-20180607-story.html which lost the Democrats their supermajority in the State legislature with the most recent tax hikes.

But it was he who reduced it when possible and had to raise it when the budget went to ****. Also I thought all the Enron and electricity stuff was a bigger issue.

eire4

Igotadose wrote: »

Here's the thing. As comedian Dave Chappelle said recently, Russia didn't make America racist. Trump's just riding the wave, but he didn't create it. Even if in some crazy long-shot result there are enough in Congress to impeach Trump and he's impeached, the next guy'll be worse. I don't mean Pence, either, but whoever comes after them.

Trump's the symptom, not the cause. He might be a catalyst for serious ugliness but he isn't the creator.

The best that can happen is D control of both houses. It'll be a mirror of Obama's presidency then, very little done that the WH wants. Of course, since we're talking Trump WH it's a good thing if they get very little done!

I really sadly have to agree with that. Even when the president is gone the sickness that has taken over the Republican party and send them lurch to the far right is very much at the core of what they are. The current situation is simply the logical outcome of where the Republican party have been moving really since Reagan. What is most disturbing is that roughly 35% of Americans are completely on board with the hate fest that is the Republican party never mind their threat to the environment, income inequality etc economically. That is not some minor few bad apples that is roughly 1 in 3 Americans are on board with this. That is a pretty scary number.

eire4

Gbear wrote: »

I've been following along with Fivethirtyeight on the elections and a point they brought up today was that people polled who said that healthcare was the most important issue to them tend to be democrats, but it was gender issues, race, immigration and culture that was the primary motivator for republican voters and not the economy.

However, I think it's important to remember that whether you look at the UK or the US, "liberal", or "lefty" positions are the majority politics of the country. There's a hard core of reliable votes that the Tories, the Republicans, or issues such as Brexit can command, but they're only something like a third of the actual population.

Mississippi has two seats up for grabs in the senate, and they're heavily favouring the Republican nominees, despite the state being nearly 40% black. It should be solid blue every election year based on who represents who's interests, but turnout among black people is atrocious, as it is with other minorities and youth voters.

America isn't majority racist and the republicans don't represent the majority interests (they don't even really represent the interests of most of their supporters), but when you take into account that a sizeable chunk of the population don't actually participate in their democracy, then we have a situation where a minority of far right ideologues, business interests, theocrats and racists control the country. Of course, that's worsened by active voter suppression and disenfranchisement, but primarily, it's a lack of engagement.

I agree with you that the majority of Americans are not racist but the facts are that roughly 35% are completely on board with the hate fest that is the Republican party so that is not just a few bad apples spoiling things for everyone. That is a very large minority that is roughly 1 in 3 Americans.


It is a fact that a large portion of Americans are disengaged from the political system and I can understand why as the system is corrupted and bankrupt and simply does not represent the best interest of the vast majority of Americans by any stretch of the imagination. It will be interesting to see what the final turnout is after tonight. I bet despite all the noise your hearing that roughly have of Americans don't even bother to vote.

relax carry on

Some technical issues with voters in Georgia. How hard is it to organise a robust voting system? Fair play for the determination shown by the voters which ever party they are voting for.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

Georgia voters report long lines and malfunctioning machines
From CNN's Gianluca Mezzofiore and Paul P. Murphy

James Herndon in Decatur, Georgia, tells CNN: "Lines are long. So that’s great! But, they are extremely delayed. Up front they are having trouble verifying lots of people. People who live here and vote here whenever possible."

Herndon said his wife "put the card in the machine and it shot it out and said 'error' when she turned it in and asked what was up."

A polling worker there told her that it showed she had “already voted" and said “that has been happening this morning” -- but didn’t explain why that machine was still being used or why her card went back in the stack to be used again.

They gave her a provisional ballot and told her it would be counted, asking her to write what happened on the back.

Elsewhere, Ontaria Woods of Gwinnett County tells CNN she has been waiting in line to vote at Annistown Elementary since 7 a.m.

She told CNN:

"So ballot machines are down. They are unable to print our ballots on the card. They’ve brought in new machines and now they’re about to try to bring in new cards. I’ve been here since 7AM."
She posted on Twitter videos and pictures of long lines of people waiting to cast their ballots. "People who are here to vote have gone to Walmart using their money to provide water, juice and crackers," she added.

"Voters are highly upset and they feel like this has not been handled properly. We’ve been offered paper and provisional ballots and nobody feels safe using them. Most people refuse to leave and are determined to vote."

B0jangles

relax carry on wrote: »

Some technical issues with voters in Georgia. How hard is it to organise a robust voting system? Fair play for the determination shown by the voters which ever party they are voting for.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

Georgia voters report long lines and malfunctioning machines
From CNN's Gianluca Mezzofiore and Paul P. Murphy

James Herndon in Decatur, Georgia, tells CNN: "Lines are long. So that’s great! But, they are extremely delayed. Up front they are having trouble verifying lots of people. People who live here and vote here whenever possible."

Herndon said his wife "put the card in the machine and it shot it out and said 'error' when she turned it in and asked what was up."

A polling worker there told her that it showed she had “already voted" and said “that has been happening this morning” -- but didn’t explain why that machine was still being used or why her card went back in the stack to be used again.

They gave her a provisional ballot and told her it would be counted, asking her to write what happened on the back.

Elsewhere, Ontaria Woods of Gwinnett County tells CNN she has been waiting in line to vote at Annistown Elementary since 7 a.m.

She told CNN:

"So ballot machines are down. They are unable to print our ballots on the card. They’ve brought in new machines and now they’re about to try to bring in new cards. I’ve been here since 7AM."
She posted on Twitter videos and pictures of long lines of people waiting to cast their ballots. "People who are here to vote have gone to Walmart using their money to provide water, juice and crackers," she added.

"Voters are highly upset and they feel like this has not been handled properly. We’ve been offered paper and provisional ballots and nobody feels safe using them. Most people refuse to leave and are determined to vote."

Is this the same Georgia which is already under severe scrutiny for alleged voter supression tactics?

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/26/18024468/georgia-voter-suppression-stacey-abrams-brian-kemp-voting-rights

I'm sure the 'technical problems' are entirely co-incidental - it's not like the person in charge of maintaining the viability of the voting process has a long and extremely shady history of trying to disenfranchise black voters, and is in fact one of the candidates in the bloody election!

Captain Obvious

Unreal

At Martin Luther King Jr. High School in Detroit, voters arrived shortly after polls opened ready to vote.

However, they were shocked to find out that the precinct wasn't prepared – they had no voting machines.

https://www.wxyz.com/news/voters-turned-away-due-to-missing-voting-machines-at-precinct-in-detroit

StringerBell

Country is a joke

Timberrrrrrrr

relax carry on wrote: »

Some technical issues with voters in Georgia. How hard is it to organise a robust voting system? Fair play for the determination shown by the voters which ever party they are voting for.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

Georgia voters report long lines and malfunctioning machines
From CNN's Gianluca Mezzofiore and Paul P. Murphy

James Herndon in Decatur, Georgia, tells CNN: "Lines are long. So that’s great! But, they are extremely delayed. Up front they are having trouble verifying lots of people. People who live here and vote here whenever possible."

Herndon said his wife "put the card in the machine and it shot it out and said 'error' when she turned it in and asked what was up."

A polling worker there told her that it showed she had “already voted" and said “that has been happening this morning” -- but didn’t explain why that machine was still being used or why her card went back in the stack to be used again.

They gave her a provisional ballot and told her it would be counted, asking her to write what happened on the back.

Elsewhere, Ontaria Woods of Gwinnett County tells CNN she has been waiting in line to vote at Annistown Elementary since 7 a.m.

She told CNN:

"So ballot machines are down. They are unable to print our ballots on the card. They’ve brought in new machines and now they’re about to try to bring in new cards. I’ve been here since 7AM."
She posted on Twitter videos and pictures of long lines of people waiting to cast their ballots. "People who are here to vote have gone to Walmart using their money to provide water, juice and crackers," she added.

"Voters are highly upset and they feel like this has not been handled properly. We’ve been offered paper and provisional ballots and nobody feels safe using them. Most people refuse to leave and are determined to vote."

If this was happening anywhere else the US would be demanding observers be sent in to ensure fair elections!

pixelburp

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the man I fear isn't Trump as such, it's the guy who comes after and learns all the lessons from the current President. Your Richard Spencer or that ilk, who hides brazen racism or sexism with a more ... media consumable package. Whether Trump believes in what he says is one thing, but to me doesn't possess the subtly of maneuver to pull it off...

jobbridge4life

pixelburp wrote: »

I've said it before and I'll say it again: the man I fear isn't Trump as such, it's the guy who comes after and learns all the lessons from the current President. Your Richard Spencer or that ilk, who hides brazen racism or sexism with a more ... media consumable package. Whether Trump believes in what he says is one thing, but to me doesn't possess the subtly of maneuver to pull it off...

That is a concern alright. I'm in two minds about it though. There has never been a shortage of racists in America. Never been a shortage of racist politicians in America. Never been a shortage of out and out bigots of all forms in all highs and lows of American political and general society. None of them were able to make it. So while Trump is not unique in his views, there is something unique in his capacity to just dumb down the electorates standards.

I'm not sure that the media consumable package would be a help to Trump 2.0. I am not sure there can be a Trump 2.0. I don't mean that we call rest on our laurels and ride this storm out, or that racists/bigots won't be emboldened and granted some more success but I am not sure that anyone will be able to capture what Trump has. I think Albert Speer's book 'Inside the Third Reich' has a very pertinent point for our times, in that it acknowledges, while it doesn't/can't explain, the sheer force of Hilter's charisma.

vetinari

Manic Moran wrote: »

How many of them were in places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Ohio? You know, the States which were actually up for grabs? The Democrat base tends to be in the megalopoli. Many, many people, but a few tens of thousand more or a few tens of thousand less in California or New York wouldn’t make a heck of a lot of difference to the final outcome. Getting your base out makes great talking point, getting the vote out where it counts is what wins.

The vote in the Milwaukee area was down 20% due to imo a combination of voter suppression tactics and less enthusiasm for Clinton. That right there would have won Wisconsin. I'm sure if you dig into the numbers for Philadelphia and Cleveland / Cincinnati you'd see something similar.


Popular vote was way down in the last election. Trump received less votes than Romney

jobbridge4life

vetinari wrote: »

The vote in the Milwaukee area was down 20% due to imo a combination of voter suppression tactics and less enthusiasm for Clinton. That right there would have won Wisconsin. I'm sure if you dig into the numbers for Philadelphia and Cleveland / Cincinnati you'd see something similar.


Popular vote was way down in the last election. Trump received less votes than Romney

'Trump won the economically disadvantaged!'

'Trump discovered something no political scientist could!'

'Trump tells it like it is!'

Never let something as lowly as facts get in the way of a good narrative.

ancapailldorcha

StringerBell wrote: »

Country is a joke

No more one liners please.

BoJack Horseman

First result is in, from MSNBC.

Socialist & hater of Israel, Andrew Gillum is the new Governor of Florida in a narrow outcome.

Pelvis

That's not real, it's only half 2 in Florida. It was on MSNBC yesterday and they corrected it, saying it was a mistake.

robinph

Here is the timings of when the various polls close.

BBC News - Mid-term elections 2018: Hour-by-hour guide to results
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46076102

Quin_Dub

robinph wrote: »

Here is the timings of when the various polls close.

BBC News - Mid-term elections 2018: Hour-by-hour guide to results
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46076102

Hang on - Polls close in Kentucky & Indiana at 6pm?

How are you supposed to vote if you work ?

Danzy

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

First result is in, from MSNBC.

Socialist & hater of Israel, Andrew Gillum is the new Governor of Florida in a narrow outcome.

Isn't there about 4 hours of voting left.

WinnyThePoo

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

First result is in, from MSNBC.

Socialist & hater of Israel, Andrew Gillum is the new Governor of Florida in a narrow outcome.

Can you expand on Gillums hatred towards the people of Israel?. If rightly believing that a two state solution is the only fair way forward for peace in the area is a form hatred. Then I just feel sorry for for people who take that position.

circadian

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Hang on - Polls close in Kentucky & Indiana at 6pm?

How are you supposed to vote if you work ?

You aren't. If I'm learning anything about politics this year, it's that the American election system is fundamentally broken in a plethora of ways.

humberklog

You can get 4 hours unpaid leave to vote in Kentucky. Zilch in Idaho.

Igotadose

CNN's reporting 12.8 million votes ahead in early voting, and a large percentage of first-time voters. Maybe this is a reason for some hope after all.

prawnsambo

humberklog wrote: »

You can get 4 hours unpaid leave to vote in Kentucky. Zilch in Idaho.

Not questioning you, but you can get unpaid leave anywhere if you're sick. Or late for work even.

prawnsambo

Should we not be posting election updates in the midterm elections thread?

listermint

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

First result is in, from MSNBC.

Socialist & hater of Israel, Andrew Gillum is the new Governor of Florida in a narrow outcome.

The poster knows the voting is not closed this is an attempt to push voters to the republican. He's spreading this misinformation in Ireland god knows why.

But it's misinformation