advantages of Brexit

50% of Irish beef exports (worth €1.2bn) go to the UK.

If the Eu is the friend that is claimed, then it will do all it can to protect these exports, will it not?

FrancieBrady

Aegir wrote: »

50% of Irish beef exports (worth €1.2bn) go to the UK.

If the Eu is the friend that is claimed, then it will do all it can to protect these exports, will it not?

Such as? Allow the UK get a deal which would effectively destroy the entire EU project?
Or help with transitioning Ireland to a more balanced export market that is not in thrall to the UK market, thereby solving that problem.
Let the UK eat Brazilian beef or cake...is the issue.

Taytoland

SteM wrote: »

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

I totally agree that in many cases the Leave Campaigned lied through their teeth to make it happen, however you swear Irish Politicians or Party's never lied in their lives to get into power.

I agree but the lies that the Leave campaigners spread will effect their country for generations to come. Lets be honest, most Irish governments last 4 or 5 years which is plenty of time to be incompetent but not long enough to **** us up on a scale that Brexit could be mess Britain up.

Why do you care though? Its the UK leaving the EU, not the Irish Republic. The people made the decision and that's it.

FrancieBrady

Taytoland wrote: »

Why do you care though? Its the UK leaving the EU, not the Irish Republic. The people made the decision and that's it.

The 'people' as represented by the British government want a deal that will effect massive problems on this island.
The days of empire when Britain thought it could ride roughshod over smaller nations is over, and we are watching the British coming slowly to terms with that.

I have to say, in that context (not ordinary decent UKers suffering) it is fabulous to watch as their military/jingoistic lingo ramps up.
Like getting savaged by a sheep in wolf's clothing as one British parliamentarian once said tbh.

Zubeneschamali

Aegir wrote: »

If the Eu is the friend that is claimed

The EU cannot be our friend, that suggests that there is us, one entity, and the EU, a separate entity which may be friendly or unfriendly.

That is like asking if the United Kingdom is a friend of Kent.

Leroy42

Aegir wrote: »

If the Eu is the friend that is claimed,

Well, the UK has shown itself to be anything but a friend to us, so not sure where we go from there.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU cannot be our friend, that suggests that there is us, one entity, and the EU, a separate entity which may be friendly or unfriendly.

That is like asking if the United Kingdom is a friend of Kent.

The divide and conquer method the British have so desperately been trying is so old now.
It hasn't work and doesn't look like it is going to work.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Such as? Allow the UK get a deal which would effectively destroy the entire EU project?
Or help with transitioning Ireland to a more balanced export market that is not in thrall to the UK market, thereby solving that problem.
Let the UK eat Brazilian beef or cake...is the issue.

how will a trade deal destroy the eu project? trade deals is one of the strengths of the eu, or did you miss President junker's trip to the US this week.

75% of beef consumed in the UK is produced in the UK, The UK also exports about a third less beef than it imports.so the effects on the UK will be marginal. The effects on the Irish beef industry will be catastrophic.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU cannot be our friend, that suggests that there is us, one entity, and the EU, a separate entity which may be friendly or unfriendly.

That is like asking if the United Kingdom is a friend of Kent.

What a daft statement, of course the UK is a friend of Kent, it is part of the UK and it is therefore the UK government's responsibility to do all in its power to look after it.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well, the UK has shown itself to be anything but a friend to us, so not sure where we go from there.

Maintaining the CTA and relations with Ireland have been a key objective of the UK government since day one, or are you suggesting the referendum results are ignored becuase it might upset the Irish?

Leroy42

Aegir wrote: »

Maintaining the CTA and relations with Ireland have been a key objective of the UK government since day one, or are you suggesting the referendum results are ignored becuase it might upset the Irish?

No, I'm replying to your claim that we would see through EU response to our beefs sales to the UK suffering as a result of Brexit whether they are our friend or not.

But clearly, the UK decision to leave EU, and even more so the rhetoric many MPs have used since then regarding Ireland, shows that the UK are no friend or ours, simply using your own logic.

blinding

I hope the British make the best of their Independence as we did for the 26 Counties . We were given all sorts of warnings about taking our partial Independence but we still went ahead with it .

Running you own Country has a Value that should always be taken when the opportunity knocks .

FrancieBrady

Aegir wrote: »

how will a trade deal destroy the eu project? trade deals is one of the strengths of the eu, or did you miss President junker's trip to the US this week.

75% of beef consumed in the UK is produced in the UK, The UK also exports about a third less beef than it imports.so the effects on the UK will be marginal. The effects on the Irish beef industry will be catastrophic.

Nobody I know is against a trade deal. But it will be a trade deal that keeps the EU intact and does not undermine what the project is about.
The UK want cake and they are not getting it...it is time to go off and swallow that reality that has been there since day one.

Leroy42

blinding wrote: »

I hope the British make the best of their Independence as we did for the 26 Counties . We were given all sorts of warnings about taking our partial Independence but we still went ahead with it .

Running you own Country has a Value that should always be taken when the opportunity knocks .

They could join something like the EU to really give them the strength and power to be a player in the world, whilst also increasing the market available to them to sell into.

We very much run our own country, nearly ran it into the ground only recently.

Nah, sure it did nothing for Ireland!

Zubeneschamali

Aegir wrote: »

Maintaining the CTA and relations with Ireland have been a key objective of the UK government since day one

Since their key objectives conflict, they are going to have to drop some of them. If they drop their take-back-control objective and settle for an EEA+ deal in order to achieve their objectives in Ireland, great.

SteM

Taytoland wrote: »

Why do you care though? Its the UK leaving the EU, not the Irish Republic. The people made the decision and that's it.

My wife is English and I'm just back from spending a week with her family. I care for their future, they're good people. Some have young children that will be effected by the vote. Why do you care that I care?

blinding

Leroy42 wrote: »

They could join something like the EU to really give them the strength and power to be a player in the world, whilst also increasing the market available to them to sell into.

We very much run our own country, nearly ran it into the ground only recently.

Nah, sure it did nothing for Ireland!

The EEC was Ok but the Eu wants to be a Superstate . A Superstate that wants to control everything from the centre . I was delighted we got Partial Independence from the British and have no interest whatsoever in giving that Independence up to the Eu Superstate .

Zubeneschamali

blinding wrote: »

I was delighted we got Partial Independence from the British

Janey, you're old!

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

The EEC was Ok but the Eu wants to be a Superstate . A Superstate that wants to control everything from the centre . I was delighted we got Partial Independence from the British and have no interest whatsoever in giving that Independence up to the Eu Superstate .

Is this the superstate. where if we or any other of the 27 (=1 in Purgatory ) states of the EU decide to veto a deal, then we can?

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is this the superstate. where if we or any other of the 27 (=1 in Purgatory ) states of the EU decide to veto a deal, then we can?

The 26 counties does as the Eu directs . They have ways of making their Lap-Puppy obedient .

Taytoland

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Why do you care though? Its the UK leaving the EU, not the Irish Republic.  The people made the decision and that's it.

The 'people' as represented by the British government want a deal that will effect massive problems on this island.
The days of empire when Britain thought it could ride roughshod over smaller nations is over, and we are watching the British coming slowly to terms with that.

I have to say, in that context (not ordinary decent UKers suffering) it is fabulous to watch as their military/jingoistic lingo ramps up.
Like getting savaged by a sheep in wolf's clothing as one British parliamentarian once said tbh.

The fact your economy relies so heavily on the British economy tells us that the special relationship is closer than maybe you think.

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

The 26 counties does as the Eu directs . They have ways of making their Lap-Puppy obedient .

Weak governments may acquiesce because they are weak, but that doesn't neccessarily mean that there is a superstate.

Here is a recent example of a country getting what it wanted after applying a veto.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/belgium-reaches-deal-with-wallonia-over-eu-canada-trade-agreement


The scare stories are just that. Scare stories.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Since their key objectives conflict, they are going to have to drop some of them. If they drop their take-back-control objective and settle for an EEA+ deal in order to achieve their objectives in Ireland, great.

But that's the whole point THEY don't have to drop them, they just have to accept that they won't be part of the EEA and all that entails for the UK and the EU.

People need to stop thinking island of Ireland economy and think EU economy, the EU LOSE a trading partner that they export more to, Germany alone would have a nett loss of £26 Bn, that's a whole lot of Sauerkraut etc. to find a new market for.

Taytoland

blinding wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

They could join something like the EU to really give them the strength and power to be a player in the world, whilst also increasing the market available to them to sell into.

We very much run our own country, nearly ran it into the ground only recently.

Nah, sure it did nothing for Ireland!

The EEC was Ok but the Eu wants to be a Superstate . A Superstate that wants to control everything from the centre . I was delighted we got Partial Independence from the British and have no interest whatsoever in giving that Independence up to the Eu Superstate .

Too late mate, you have EU bootlicker Leo Varadkar pushing ever closer Union. You gave up sovereignty years ago.

FrancieBrady

Taytoland wrote: »

The fact your economy relies so heavily on the British economy tells us that the special relationship is closer than maybe you think.

The economy will take a hit, as it has done many times. But as you say, somethings are more important than the economy and this time the British will take the bigger hit if they don't conform and do as they have been directed to do at the start.

The tide is turning in the UK if you hadn't noticed, latest polls show a majority in favour of another Ref.
With the Chequers White Tissue Paper about to be thrown out that is only going to increase.
The writing is on the wall here.

Spook_ie

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Is this the superstate. where if we or any other of the 27 (=1 in Purgatory ) states of the EU decide to veto a deal, then we can?

Just like we vetoed Lisbon in 2008 or Nice in 2001.

Tzardine

One of the personal advantages of Brexit has been in the fall of sterling. I am studying with a UK University and am saving a good few bob on my annual fees.

If Sterling takes a really big drive next year I might do a PhD

Zubeneschamali

Spook_ie wrote: »

the EU LOSE a trading partner that they export more to, Germany alone would have a nett loss of £26 Bn, that's a whole lot of Sauerkraut etc. to find a new market for.

Yes, indeed, any day now. Bye-bye-bye. See you at the UN. Bye. Goodbye. No, there is no more cake, good-bye. Shall I get your coat?

Bye again. Lovely having you in the EU, bye now.

[are they ever going to leave???]

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The economy will take a hit, as it has done many times. But as you say, somethings are more important than the economy and this time the British will take the bigger hit if they don't conform and do as they have been directed to do at the start.

The tide is turning in the UK if you hadn't noticed, latest polls show a majority in favour of another Ref.
With the Chequers White Tissue Paper about to be thrown out that is only going to increase.
The writing is on the wall here.

Probably more chance of a General Election . That would be very interesting : A Brexit General Election . Corbyn has been anti Eu his whole political life .

How about Sajid Javid as a Brexit leader against Corbyn’s labour ; Could be very interesting times .

Donald Trump

Taytoland wrote: »

Too late mate, you have EU bootlicker Leo Varadkar pushing ever closer Union. You gave up sovereignty years ago.

Didn't think you were against separate countries being in Unions?




Considering the Nordies are being ruled directly by decision makers over in London, that would seem worse - no?

jobbridge4life

Spook_ie wrote: »

Just like we vetoed Lisbon in 2008 or Nice in 2001.

In both instances it was our own Government who chose to rerun the referendums and secured compromises for Ireland before running the second referendums. In both instances the public voted in favour of the compromise, those votes are as valid as any rejection, whether that suits your agenda or not.

The Rape of Lucretia

Taytoland wrote: »

Why do you care though? Its the UK leaving the EU, not the Irish Republic.

Technically, you are correct. But the impact on the Republic will be greater than the impact on the UK. To some extent, we are leaving too, in not having our closest relation, ally, cousins, fellow island of Ireland dwellers in the north, common travel area, biggest and most crucial trade partner, and effectively cultural siblings, and former fellow citizens of the same country, in the same club as Eire. There will be an impact on Eire that will in some aspects as if it had left too. Fundamentally we care for them, and want the best for them, as well as for not harming our own situation in itself, and our relationship with the UK.

jobbridge4life

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Technically, you are correct. But the impact on the Republic will be greater than the impact on the UK. To some extent, we are leaving too, in not having our closest relation, ally, cousins, fellow island of Ireland dwellers in the north, common travel area, biggest and most crucial trade partner, and effectively cultural siblings, and former fellow citizens of the same country, in the same club as Eire. There will be an impact on Eire that will in some aspects as if it had left too. Fundamentally we care for them, and want the best for them, as well as for not harming our own situation in itself, and our relationship with the UK.

Eire?

Zubeneschamali

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Technically, you are correct. But the impact on the Republic will be greater than the impact on the UK.

Not economically according to any report I've seen. It remains to be seen what impact there will be on the North, but unless the UK leaves with No Deal, there will be no border.

And if they leave in March with No Deal, they will be back by may looking for a deal, and precondition #1 will be no border.

Spook_ie

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, indeed, any day now. Bye-bye-bye. See you at the UN. Bye. Goodbye. No, there is no more cake, good-bye. Shall I get your coat?

Bye again. Lovely having you in the EU, bye now.

[are they ever going to leave???]

They'll be leaving in March 2019, that's the date 2 years from when they activated article 50, whether there's a deal or no deal.

The Rape of Lucretia

jobbridge4life wrote: »

Eire?

Yes, not that it is planning to leave the EU (though if the UK does indeed go ahead with the Brexit, would have to be considered as the best solution to the northern issue, and possible for the economics of the south). But the impact on it will be huge - seriously being a very small economy so dependent on the UK, greater than on the UK itself.

daheff

DickSwiveller Returns wrote: »

This. I would bet my house on it.

I’ll take that bet

You win, you keep your house. I win & I keep your house.

Brits out

(Of EU!!)

Zubeneschamali

Spook_ie wrote: »

They'll be leaving in March 2019, that's the date 2 years from when they activated article 50, whether there's a deal or no deal.

Well, May has already asked for a Transition Period where nothing changes, which will be in the Withdrawal Agreement if one is agreed, so they leave in March in name only in that case. And we all know that the talks will not have achieved anything by the end of the Transition Period, and it will be extended... and extended...

The Rape of Lucretia

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And if they leave in March with No Deal, they will be back by may looking for a deal, and precondition #1 will be no border.

Wha? No deal, and of course there is a border. All rules are out in that scenario, and the UK can do as it wishes. They will put up the barriers, at least on the inward to UK direction. The game of brinkmanship at the moment is that both sides are playing the same card : agree to a deal with no border, or there will be no deal -V- if we leave without a deal we will put up a border.

Spook_ie

blinding wrote: »

Probably more chance of a General Election . That would be very interesting : A Brexit General Election . Corbyn has been anti Eu his whole political life .

How about Sajid Javid as a Brexit leader against Corbyn’s labour ; Could be very interesting times .

Don't think there's anything in the treaties that allows for a withdrawal of the notice, possibly a new government might renegotiate entry into the EU but it would probably be treated as a new member and have to sign up to the Euro etc.

That's one of the things I wish someone would remind Sturgeon about when she harps on about Scottish Independence and that they'd join the EU straight away.

Zubeneschamali

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Wha? No deal, and of course there is a border.

Yes, but no deal means no food or medicine on the shelves, so it'll last less than a month.

And when they come knocking at the EUs door to ask for a deal, item #1 will be the Irish border. Again.

Taytoland

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

Why do you care though? Its the UK leaving the EU, not the Irish Republic.

Technically, you are correct. But the impact on the Republic will be greater than the impact on the UK. To some extent, we are leaving too, in not having our closest relation, ally, cousins, fellow island of Ireland dwellers in the north, common travel area, biggest and most crucial trade partner, and effectively cultural siblings, and former fellow citizens of the same country, in the same club as Eire. There will be an impact on Eire that will in some aspects as if it had left too. Fundamentally we care for them, and want the best for them, as well as for not harming our own situation in itself, and our relationship with the UK.

And there you have it. That's why some are losing the run of themselves over this. It brings into question just how independent are you.

FrancieBrady

Taytoland wrote: »

And there you have it. That's why some are losing the run of themselves over this. It brings into question just how independent are you.

You are confusing independence with economic realities.
Of course Ireland will take a hit. Greater than the UK?
I don't see that at all. We will have to readjust some, but nothing insurmountable.
The UK is looking down the barrel of breaking up firstly and then economic strangulation of the slow painful kind.

Taytoland

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

And there you have it. That's why some are losing the run of themselves over this. It brings into question just how independent are you.

You are confusing independence with economic realities.
Of course Ireland will take a hit. Greater than the UK?
I don't see that at all. We will have to readjust some, but nothing insurmountable.
The UK is looking down the barrel of breaking up firstly and then economic strangulation of the slow painful kind.

£19 billion with the UK in exporting, £37 billion in foreign investment from the UK to Ireland. Main market for Irish cheese is to the UK. Agri food would get literally wiped out.

Spook_ie

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You are confusing independence with economic realities.
Of course Ireland will take a hit. Greater than the UK?
I don't see that at all. We will have to readjust some, but nothing insurmountable.
The UK is looking down the barrel of breaking up firstly and then economic strangulation of the slow painful kind.

The UK were looking down the barrel at a Scottish independence, in the end they voted to stay, I see nothing that would change that, possibly even less chance when they get told they have to accept the Euro if they want to be in the EU post independence.

blinding

Spook_ie wrote: »

The UK were looking down the barrel at a Scottish independence, in the end they voted to stay, I see nothing that would change that, possibly even less chance when they get told they have to accept the Euro if they want to be in the EU post independence.

One Third of SNP voters voted for Brexit = Very Interesting .

FrancieBrady

Taytoland wrote: »

£19 billion with the UK in exporting, £37 billion in foreign investment from the UK to Ireland. Main market for Irish cheese is to the UK. Agri food would get literally wiped out.

You have tried that threat and it hasn't worked. May et al, have to up their game and try as they might, they haven't been able to do it.

Agri food will take a hit, but it will be a survivable hit and when new markets and adjustments are made we will be better off not dependent on one market.

jobbridge4life

jobbridge4life wrote: »

Eire?

The
Rape
Of
Lucretia

FrancieBrady

Spook_ie wrote: »

The UK were looking down the barrel at a Scottish independence, in the end they voted to stay, I see nothing that would change that, possibly even less chance when they get told they have to accept the Euro if they want to be in the EU post independence.

What fantasy have you opted into about the value of sterling after a crash out or no Deal Brexit?

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

One Third of SNP voters voted for Brexit = Very Interesting .

If you look at the polls, somebody is shifting their opinions on Brexit. Very interesting who they might be.

Taytoland

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

£19 billion with the UK in exporting, £37 billion in foreign investment from the UK to Ireland. Main market for Irish cheese is to the UK. Agri food would get literally wiped out.

You have tried that threat and it hasn't worked. May et al, have to up their game and try as they might, they haven't been able to do it.

Agri food will take a hit, but it will be a survivable hit and when new markets and adjustments are made we will be better off not dependent on one market.

Go ahead, see how it works out for you.