Is now a bad time to buy?

RisingDamp

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

Interested Observer

Nobody has a crystal ball. If you find a property you like, in an area that you like, for a price you can afford then my opinion is just go ahead and buy.

And don't fall into the trap of going looking for answers that you want to hear. Nobody knows what the market will look like in 2020.

Quaderno

Interested Observer wrote: »

Nobody has a crystal ball.

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

M.Cribben

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

Same could be said if prices rise by 10% in the same timeframe. "Damn, why did I not buy a year ago and save myself a 5 figure sum". Nobody can predict the market and nobody can confidently say where we are in relation to the peak or trough of a cycle. Like previous poster said, if you find a property you like in an area you like, and plan to stay long-term and can afford the deposit+mortgage repayments then that is a good time to buy.

Interested Observer

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

You're literally crystal ball gazing here!

You wait a year, then you decide to wait for the next shock and the next one and the next one. You could be waiting forever. I stand by what I said in my previous post, if a property, location and price all align then go for it.

pwurple

Well, are you mortgage or a cash buyer?

If it's for you to live in, and you need a mortgage, buy when you can and don't over extend. I've bought 5 properties over the last 20 years. Some at the height of the boom, after a crash, some in the middle. No financial problems with any of them. It only matters if you over extend. The most difficult purchase was actually right after the crash when the market was rock bottom. Both myself and spouse were working full time, had a deposit from sale of a house of around 50% what we wanted to buy, and the mortgage approval process would only give us 1* one persons salary because they assumed unemployment was on the way. We wanted 1.5 x both. And the rent we were paying was twice what they approved.  None of this 3.5* both combined that you get now, 5 years later.
Point is, you can't assume the bank will still be lending when you need it if you're hoping for a crash.

Quaderno

M.Cribben wrote: »

Same could be said if prices rise by 10% in the same timeframe. "Damn, why did I not buy a year ago and save myself a 5 figure sum".

No, on a psychological level that would be quite different. You would know why you made the decision you made (as in not buying earlier to avoid a substantial risk to the market) and you would now look at a fairly healthy market ahead of you. Most people could handle that "loss" quite well, no least because they would be in positive equity going forward. That is what we have had for the last 5+ years.
If, on the other hand, things fail to turn out well you will have to ask yourself if the situation you find yourself in could have been avoided. And the answer would clearly be yes. And that's the tough part.
The warning signs are lit, proceed with caution.

M.Cribben

Quaderno wrote: »

No, on a psychological level that would be quite different. You would know why you made the decision you made (as in not buying earlier to avoid a substantial risk to the market) and you would now look at a fairly healthy market ahead of you. Most people could handle that "loss" quite well, no least because they would be in positive equity going forward. That is what we have had for the last 5+ years.
If, on the other hand, things fail to turn out well you will have to ask yourself if the situation you find yourself in could have been avoided. And the answer would clearly be yes. And that's the tough part.
The warning signs are lit, proceed with caution.

positive/negative equity does not matter when you are buying a property to live in for 25+ years. Property prices have been changing by significant annual %'s for decades now. You would drive yourself mad tracking them after buying, it's a futile task. If you like the house and the area, and can afford the repayments what does it matter what % equity you have in the house? People only have 2 choices regarding accommodation - buy or rent. Historically in Ireland if you bought ANY time in the last 100 years you are in a better financial position than those who chose renting as an alternative.

GingerLily

pwurple wrote: »

Well, are you mortgage or a cash buyer?

.......

Point is, you can't assume the bank will still be lending when you need it if you're hoping for a crash.

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

M.Cribben

GingerLily wrote: »

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

As I said in another thread, even cash buyers run scared when prices are falling 10-15% a year. The "I'll just wait another year and get it cheaper" mentality kicks in. And very few, (if any) people can accurately call the top or bottom of the market. The ones who can are probably extremely wealthy now.

Interested Observer

GingerLily wrote: »

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

Another thing that gets overlooked is the price of renting has to be deducted from any potential savings you'd make from waiting.

If you're paying 1.5k per month in Dublin (for a couple) that's 18k per year that you're spending while waiting for house prices to possibly move.

Samuel T. Cogley

If you can get a house you can live in for 20 years + at a reasonable mortgage relative to your income go for it. Negativce equity/massive posative equity is cyclical and only effects you if you need to move.

TheShow

depends on what your purpose is - if its a house to live in, then the ultimate value should not be of much concern, as long as you can afford it.

If for investment purposes, then its a different story.

tradesman

As Samuel T Cogley said earlier. It only affects you if you have to sell in a downturn. Most rents are more than mortgage repayments anyway. If you like the house & can afford the repayments then the time is right to buy

smurgen

Interested Observer wrote: »

GingerLily wrote: »

This!!!! It's amazing how people overlook this fact time and time again

Another thing that gets overlooked is the price of renting has to be deducted from any potential savings you'd make from waiting.

If you're paying 1.5k per month in Dublin (for a couple) that's 18k per year that you're spending while waiting for house prices to possibly move.

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

Q&A

smurgen wrote: »

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

How is this different if you buy at the "right time"?

This is just how mortgages work. To make a dent just overpay.

smurgen

Q&A wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

But if you but at the wrong time you will spend years paying off.excess mortgage interest before making a dent in the principle

How is this different if you buy at the "right time"?

This is just how mortgages work. To make a dent just overpay.

Lower cost smaller mortgage,smaller interest repayments.

limnam

RisingDamp wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

The "right" time to buy rarely changes.


It's usually when you find the house you really want and can comfortably afford to buy it.


In relation to buying a home that is.

triple nipple

RisingDamp wrote:

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

Do you only plan to live in it till 2020?

adriaaaan

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

Brexit won't happen. And right now prices are growing at 12% a year. A slowdown would have them growing at say 7-9% a year. Still growing. It will take a major shock to go from 12% growth to 10% reduction which I am guessing the OP is looking for. and as a poster mentioned banks won't be lending 3.5 LTI in a falling market

smurgen

adriaaaan wrote: »

Quaderno wrote: »

True, but image yourself next summer in a situation were Brexit has gone terribly wrong, the economy is slowing and property prices are on the way down. I don't say this will happen, but if it does, wouldn't you think that you should have been more prudent?
It's rare that a likely economic catastrophe has a clear date before it even happens, but this is one such occasion. The question you will be asking yourself is "why did I not see this coming?". Could you deal with that? Then go ahead and buy...

Brexit won't happen. And right now prices are growing at 12% a year. A slowdown would have them growing at say 7-9% a year. Still growing. It will take a major shock to go from 12% growth to 10% reduction which I am guessing the OP is looking for. and as a poster mentioned banks won't be lending 3.5 LTI in a falling market

When people start to talk with such certainty you know it's time to wait and see rather than make a foolish move.

z0oT

I used to think that one could hold out for a huge crash, profit hugely from having a lot of gold and easily convert it all into property easily.

I've come to realize that predicting a crash (or huge bubble-like run up) in any market is nearly impossible to do so. The other thing is even if you can predict it, are you really going to turn 20/30/40/50k (reasonable long-term savings figures for most here) into 200/300/400k? And even if you did, you would get hit with a huge chunk of Capital Gains Tax.

The other thing that others have pointed out here, is that you're likely going to need some form of mortgage, and if there's a financial crises then credit isn't available easily. 200/300/400k isn't something that you're likely to have to hand.

I think I echo the sentiments of others here, you'll never predict "The Right Time To Buy". If you find somewhere you like in a nice area you would like to stay and if it's comfortably affordable without a crazy term time (my wife and I are hoping for just 15 years, which would put us mortgage free in our mid 40's), then go for it.

Glenbhoy

There's also the probability that supply (reckoned by many to be the key determinant of recent increases) will increase significantly over the next 2 years, against that, it's very likely that interest rates will rise again, possibly impacting on borrowing capacity!
My own tuppenceworth, more potential downward pressures on the horizon than upsides, I'd be happy to defer, but you takes your chances........

blue note

Interested Observer wrote: »

Another thing that gets overlooked is the price of renting has to be deducted from any potential savings you'd make from waiting.

If you're paying 1.5k per month in Dublin (for a couple) that's 18k per year that you're spending while waiting for house prices to possibly move.

This is what's driving me to buy at the moment. I'm worried that I'll buy a place that we could have gotten for €50k less in 5 years time, but if I wait 5 years we'll have paid close to €100k in that time. I'll have paid the difference of €50k on interest in that time, but I'll be living in a nice house that I want to live in instead of a pokey 2 bed flat.

lawred2

RisingDamp wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

It could be

It might not be

You are asking people to tell the future

baldbear

RisingDamp wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on the market stability? Is it crazy to buy now when the value of the property could be flattened by 2020?

Feck the market. Its personal circumstances that count.

Property prices could rise they could fall. But don't think about that. Just look at what is going on with you now. Is it the right time to buy for you?

How much is your rent? How much would your mortgage be? Have you a partner, kids? Savings to actually get a mortgage?

Us, our rent was €1100 for a 1 bed. We were having a kid & bought & our mortgage is €1000 for a 3 bed. It was the right time for us.

Mantis Toboggan

Glenbhoy wrote: »

There's also the probability that supply (reckoned by many to be the key determinant of recent increases) will increase significantly over the next 2 years, against that, it's very likely that interest rates will rise again, possibly impacting on borrowing capacity!
My own tuppenceworth, more potential downward pressures on the horizon than upsides, I'd be happy to defer, but you takes your chances........

But what do you plan to do for the next 3 or 4 years until you see what way the market is going?

Are you still living at home?

Or are you renting?

I've just moved from a dump to a brand new house and my mortgage is 300 euro less per month. Buying was a no brainer for me.

SNNUS

smurgen wrote: »

When people start to talk with such certainty you know it's time to wait and see rather than make a foolish move.

You are the one talking with such certainty surely?

Interested Observer

smurgen wrote: »

When people start to talk with such certainty you know it's time to wait and see rather than make a foolish move.

What are you on about? If finding a good place to live for me and my family for the next few decades is a foolish move then I'm the biggest fool in the village and I'm fine with that.

awec

The thing people never seem to grasp is the reason property is cheap during a "crash" is because it's really difficult to buy. Ultimately the price of property is determined by the availability of buyers.

Also people seem to be predicting the extremes. What we saw in 2007 was absolutely exceptional, with huge percentage drops in property prices. Every time the media talk about a slow down, or a drop in prices, people seem to think we'll be seeing 2007 all over again.

Much more likely, IMO, is that supply eventually catches up and we see prices level off and very gradually start to come down. But this is years away.

cruizer101

A lot of it comes down to where you are in life also, if you are young enough and just kind of considering it there might be no harm is waiting a bit to see what might happen, during the last boom a lot of young people were encouraged to get on the property ladder as soon as possible which was bad advice.
But if you older and planning starting family in near future at all, may as well buy when you find a house you like. So what if prices go down you should only be buying a house you would be happy to live in for the forseeable future anyway so once you can manage they payments the value doesn't really matter.
A house is much more than an investment it is your home.