Why the north outside EU changes everything for the island

steddyeddy

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Its still a bit of a back water to be fair. It struggles to run itself responsibly, shows great immaturity in its ability to move beyond parish pump politics, boom and bust cycles, and novelty act joke TDs from backwoods within the backwater, like Kerry.
It certainly lagged embarrassingly, long after Lemass, and right up to the late 90s in income and industrial development. Even now, being propped up by a handful of foreign multinationals to an unhealthy degree, leaves it very vulnerable to a quick downturn. Its a backwater like NI all right.
If the two had any sense, they would join together as part of the UK, giving the island considerably more clout, preserving the unity of the island economically, socially, and day to day practicality, against the Brexit threat.
The republic's willingness to look the other way and let the six jump off a cliff alone while being rogered by Westminster, rather than stand with it and live up to a hundred years rhetoric about unity on the island is staggering hypocrisy.

I never get posts like this. The richest part of Northern Ireland is poorer than the poorest part of Ireland. Based on a UK driven ideaology we should abandon our thriving economy, get out the Union Flag, start hating the opposing religion to us and all become a lot poorer? Want part of that would we want?

Taytoland

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

This is ahistorical drivel, albeit popular among people on Boards.ie who enjoy all that right-on ahistorical drivel where de Valera is equivalent to the Great Satan.

It takes a very special kind of genius to start a trade war with your country's by far the largest trading partner in the middle of the Great Depression.

Then in the 50s and early 60s he was hanging around with the smell of death off him when it was clear he didn't have a clue in what direction to lead the country, so he did nothing for years basically. Hundreds of thousands saw no future here and emigrated, when the rest of Europe was seeing the greatest boom in history our economy was stagnating for years.

Yes he kept us out of the Second World War but anyone could have done the same, and that was Dev's favourite kind of decision - inaction. He did great damage to the country with most of the few actions he did take.

Taytoland wrote: »

The detail was put to the Scottish people in 2014 and the Scottish Independence argument on the economy didn't stand up and it got destroyed in the poll. It wasn't even close. Leaving the EU will not change the fundamental issues on Scottish Independence and how they would be able to do it without implementing huge austerity measures and currency issues by leaving the pound. 

At the time I remember someone saying it would take years and years for any transforming from the Act of Union to Scottish Independence. Economically it's just not there. I think this talk of Scottish Independence is lalaland.

This post is at odds with reality. The Scottish independence vote was close enough. Shouldn't a 45% vote to break up the UK worry you? If 45% of people in any part of my country voted to leave, I'd be bloody worried.

One of the main arguments used against Scottish independence was the threat that they might not be allowed to stay in the EU. Vote No to stay in the EU, they said... how's that worked out?

The pound sterling is not some sort of guarantee of wealth. Looking at the equivalent euro exchange rate, the old Irish pound is now worth substantially more than sterling - in 1978 they were equal.

Says it all about the decline of the UK over the last 40 years, which will now only accelerate.

People used to say that Irish independence was lalaland, too.

Incredible that the Tories, not content with almost breaking up the UK in 2014, then went on to vote to wreck their economy in 2016. You'd be forgiven for thinking that Cameron was some sort of Russian or Chinese agent. Proof that the finest English education that money can buy is no guarantee against being a complete idiot. But what does the likes of him or Boris or Rees-Mogg care? They'll still be rich whatever happens.

Taytoland wrote: »

Scotland leaving the Union would also be leaving the EU. They have no guarantees they would get back in relatively soon whatsoever.

No but the desire to be a member goes a long way, plus they will have the goodwill of the EU27, and the acquis (European community law) is already in place, which is much more than any new entrant to the EU has ever had before.

They would also be changing from the pound to the Euro.

Only if they want to. You can't stop anyone from using a currency. We used the pound sterling (in effect) for 56 years without being part of the UK. There are countries using the euro today which are not members of the EU. Zimbabwe uses US dollars as legal tender, it is not part of the USA. Why would changing to the euro be a bad thing for Scotland, anyway?

One of the key foundations of the Scottish Independence movement in 2014 was North sea oil. What they didn't tell you is it is rapidly disappearing. By 2030s -2050s it will be finished. They put a lot of emphasis on something which in a few generations time won't matter a jot as it will be gone.

They still have vast amounts of hydro power and great potential with wind and tidal power. Scotland is and will remain an exporter of energy (and water - something the increasingly populous and dry SE of England might want to consider)

Taytoland wrote: »

The EU is notoriously inflexible. They have clear lines on many issues and rarely if ever budge on them. So absolutely no guarantees on Scotland joining the EU.

Really, because in the run-up to the referendum and since the brexiteers have been saying how weak and therefore flexible the EU is. How's that working out for you?

prinzeugen wrote: »

There wont be passport controls though for UK or Irish nationals.

Try flying into Dublin Airport from Britain sometime soon. For years there have been passport controls to prove that you are a CTA citizen who doesn't need to go through passport controls...

You want to leave the Union and yet use the pound currency, while having to rejoin the European Union which would require you to join the Euro. How is that remotely going to happen? It's simply not and the Scottish people knew all this in 2014 and it reflects in the vote. 

The Scottish referendum was called in March 2013, you had more than a whole year to make the argument for it and it failed, utterly. So you have no excuse, the Scottish people had a choice if they wanted to leave the Union and it was rejected.

steddyeddy

Taytoland wrote: »

You want to leave the Union and yet use the pound currency, while having to rejoin the European Union which would require you to join the Euro. How is that remotely going to happen? It's simply not and the Scottish people knew all this in 2014 and it reflects in the vote. 

The Scottish referendum was called in March 2013, you had more than a whole year to make the argument for it and it failed, utterly. So you have no excuse, the Scottish people had a choice if they wanted to leave the Union and it was rejected.

They also had a choice to stay in the EU, they choose to stay and that choice was rejected.

Franz Von Peppercorn

steddyeddy wrote: »

I never get posts like this. The richest part of Northern Ireland is poorer than the poorest part of Ireland. Based on a UK driven ideaology we should abandon our thriving economy, get out the Union Flag, start hating the opposing religion to us and all become a lot poorer? Want part of that would we want?

Well he is a trol.

Joining with the U.K. would be economic suicide.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Taytoland wrote: »

You want to leave the Union and yet use the pound currency, while having to rejoin the European Union which would require you to join the Euro. How is that remotely going to happen? It's simply not and the Scottish people knew all this in 2014 and it reflects in the vote. 

The Scottish referendum was called in March 2013, you had more than a whole year to make the argument for it and it failed, utterly. So you have no excuse, the Scottish people had a choice if they wanted to leave the Union and it was rejected.

If Brexit is a basket case then Scotland will leave and join the EU. Not necessarily good news for Ireland, that.

Taytoland

steddyeddy wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

You want to leave the Union and yet use the pound currency, while having to rejoin the European Union which would require you to join the Euro. How is that remotely going to happen? It's simply not and the Scottish people knew all this in 2014 and it reflects in the vote. 

The Scottish referendum was called in March 2013, you had more than a whole year to make the argument for it and it failed, utterly. So you have no excuse, the Scottish people had a choice if they wanted to leave the Union and it was rejected.

They also had a choice to stay in the EU, they choose to stay and that choice was rejected.

But they wanted to LEAVE the EU, that is what Scottish Independence means. They wanted to LEAVE and then JOIN, yeah, good luck with that. They must think Scottish people are idiots.

cournioni

I can’t see the nationalist population standing for what they would become, should a hard border come into place.

steddyeddy

Taytoland wrote: »

But they wanted to LEAVE the EU, that is what Scottish Independence means. They wanted to LEAVE and then JOIN, yeah, good luck with that. They must think Scottish people are idiots.

Ha ha actually Scotland were told by the better together campaign that a vote to leave the UK would be a vote to leave the EU. Then the UK left against the wishes of Scotland. The Scottish independence crowd wanted to leave and then apply for membership as a seperate country.

Peregrinus

Taytoland wrote: »

But they wanted to LEAVE the EU, that is what Scottish Independence means. They wanted to LEAVE and then JOIN, yeah, good luck with that. They must think Scottish people are idiots.

Try to get your story straight, Tayto. In 2014 Scottish independence would have meant leaving the EU and then applying to rejoin. However, as you yourself pointed out, the independence referendum was lost. So it's not true to say they wanted to leave the EU; they voted in a way that would keep them in it. They voted that way again in 2016, by an even larger margin. But now they are being taken out, because the English want to leave, and the Sewell convention has been shredded

The Scots are not as stupid as you think. They notice these things. They voted twice to remain in the EU but they are being taken out. In the 2014 referendum they were promised that if they voted to remain the power of the devolved government would be enlarged, but instead it is being reduced. If you think that the Scots will accept this as wise and just because it's what the English want, you are not thinking straight.

fly_agaric

Peregrinus wrote: »

If you think that the Scots will accept this as wise and just because it's what the English want, you are not thinking straight.

No matter. I can't see them getting a chance to vote on it again any time soon. No UK leader is going give any more referenda asking what to do about major issues like this. Cameron just about got away with that one - there would have chaos I think (quite similar to Brexit) if the Scots had made the "wrong" decision & it had been a "Yes" vote.
Would they have even have gotten their independence anyway (?)
I have my doubts given how quickly all the earnest promises made re a "No" vote basically held as much water afterwards as any vague manifesto pledges.

prinzeugen

Peregrinus wrote: »

In the 2014 referendum they were promised that if they voted to remain the power of the devolved government would be enlarged, but instead it is being reduced.

The Scottish Parliament will have exactly the same number of powers after Brexit as it does now. There is no "power grab", powers are not being reduced etc. That is just the usual SNP bullcrap.

The SNP are just pissed off that the powers that are being returned from Brussels are going to Westminster not Edinburgh. The majority of these powers could not be devolved anyway as they affect the UK as a whole.

realitykeeper

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Yes, before Sean Lemass.

I think Dev lacked imagination but Lemass was the kind of Irishman who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Peregrinus

prinzeugen wrote: »

The Scottish Parliament will have exactly the same number of powers after Brexit as it does now. There is no "power grab", powers are not being reduced etc. That is just the usual SNP bullcrap.

No, because Westminster takes the view that the Sewell convention doesn't apply to legislation enacted to implement a (non-binding) refernendum. And it also doesn't apply to the referendum itself, or the decision to hold it.

So, Westminster wants do do something that will impact on a devolved matter and they don't want to seek consent from the devolved authorities? Just say its part of the implementation of the referendum result. Presto!

As I say, the Scots are not stupid. Some in England may deny that this is happening, but they will not be believed.

con___manx1

Peregrinus wrote: »

The Scots might not be so keen!

Dont forget they voted to stay in the uk before the brexit vote. If the brexit vote was before there one it might hsve been a different outcome.

Kermit.de.frog

con___manx1 wrote: »

Dont forget they voted to stay in the uk before the brexit vote. If the brexit vote was before there one it might hsve been a different outcome.

On the basis the UK would not leave the European Union...

If they had known that little Englanders would drag them out the UK would be over.

Annasopra

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Yes, before Sean Lemass.

And before joining the EU of course

blinding

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

On the basis the UK would not leave the European Union...

If they had known that little Englanders would drag them out the UK would be over.

One third of SNP Voters Voted for Brexit . This and the General Election results softened the Cough of the SNP Bigly .

Kermit.de.frog

blinding wrote: »

One third of SNP Voters Voted for Brexit . This and the General Election results softened the Cough of the SNP Bigly .

100% of SNP voters voted for independence. Your point is null and void.

Next!

blinding

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

100% of SNP voters voted for independence. Your point is null and void.

Next!

Actually not all SNP voters voted for Independence . People vote for Parties for all sorts of reasons .

steddyeddy

steddyeddy wrote: »

Ha ha actually Scotland were told by the better together campaign that a vote to leave the UK would be a vote to leave the EU. Then the UK left against the wishes of Scotland. The Scottish independence crowd wanted to leave and then apply for membership as a seperate country.

They were also told by the SNP that there would not be a hard border between England and Scotland. One thing Brexit has shown us, is that there almost certainly would be.

Peregrinus

Aegir wrote: »

They were also told by the SNP that there would not be a hard border between England and Scotland. One thing Brexit has shown us, is that there almost certainly would be.

There wouldn't have been in 2014, if the UK remained in the EU and Scotland joined either the EU or the EEA/CU.

There would be now, of course, if Scotland leaves post-Brexit UK and joins the EU. Unless the solution that is applied to avoid an Irish border is also applied to avoid a Scottish border.

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

There wouldn't have been in 2014, if the UK remained in the EU and Scotland joined either the EU or the EEA/CU.

So the SNP can’t see in to the future either?

Atlantic Dawn

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The passport controls at the border will be pure entertainment gold.

Most underrated image of the thread!

steddyeddy

blinding wrote: »

One third of SNP Voters Voted for Brexit . This and the General Election results softened the Cough of the SNP Bigly .

But most of all Scottish voted remain including Scottish unionistists.

Atlantic Dawn

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

There will have to be border checks at every crossing point, either UK or EU manned, otherwise a plane can just arrive from Kerblackistan and those onboard can simply get buses up north to arrive in the UK with no check whatsoever entering the UK. The Unionists will not stand for passport checks at NIRL ports/airports for people travelling to Scotland/Wales/England.

They would need visas to enter an EU country first

steddyeddy

steddyeddy wrote: »

But most of all Scottish voted remain including Scottish unionistists.

And?

steddyeddy

Aegir wrote: »

And?

And a lot of them voted remain because they were told that they'd lose EU access in an independent Scotland. Turns out they were being lied to.

steddyeddy

steddyeddy wrote: »

And a lot of them voted remain because they were told that they'd lose EU access in an independent Scotland. Turns out they were being lied to.

They would have. That wasn’t a lie.

They would have had a hard border as well, so the SNP were lieing

Hotblack Desiato

Taytoland wrote: »

You

I'm not Scottish and don't live in Scotland.

want to leave the Union and yet use the pound currency, while having to rejoin the European Union which would require you to join the Euro. How is that remotely going to happen?

It'll happen very easily if the Scottish people want it to.

They can continue to use the pound after independence. Bank of England or rump UK government can't stop them.

They rejoin the EU and will have an obligation to join the Euro - eventually - in practice this can be put off for as long as they want. Sweden has no sign of joining the euro yet. Changing currency is no big deal, it was a breeze here.

It's simply not and the Scottish people knew all this in 2014 and it reflects in the vote.

 

Whatever about 2014 they voted to remain in the EU in 2016, as NI did, and yet are being dragged out, as NI is.

If the Scottish people decide being dictated to by England is no longer in their interest, they're out, simple as. A disastrous brexit will increase the likelihood of this greatly.

The Scottish referendum was called in March 2013, you

Not me. Are you paying attention?

had more than a whole year to make the argument for it and it failed, utterly. So you have no excuse, the Scottish people had a choice if they wanted to leave the Union and it was rejected.

It was close the last time when a lot of BS promises about voting No safeguarding their EU status were made. Brexit is a game-changer and they only need 5% of the electorate to change from union to independence.

Incidentally the governance of the UK has been nothing but an embarrassment for the last 5 years or so. Either the UK reverses course or its future and even existence are not looking good at all.

Taytoland

Peregrinus wrote: »

Taytoland wrote: »

But they wanted to LEAVE the EU, that is what Scottish Independence means. They wanted to LEAVE and then JOIN, yeah, good luck with that. They must think Scottish people are idiots.

Try to get your story straight, Tayto.  In 2014 Scottish independence would have meant leaving the EU and then applying to rejoin.  However, as you yourself pointed out, the independence referendum was lost.  So it's not true to say they wanted to leave the EU; they voted in a way that would keep them in it.  They voted that way again in 2016, by an even larger margin.  But now they are being taken out, because the English want to leave, and the Sewell convention has been shredded

The Scots are not as stupid as you think.  They notice these things.  They voted twice to remain in the EU but they are being taken out.  In the 2014 referendum they were promised that if they voted to remain the power of the devolved government would be enlarged, but instead it is being reduced.  If you think that the Scots will accept this as wise and just because it's what the English want, you are not thinking straight.

Remain didn't win 2014 because of the EU issue, it won because Scottish Independence was just not practical economically and Alex Salmond plans got exposed in the months leading up to the vote. They had plenty of debate on the issue and month and months to discuss the issue.

But no evidence has been given to me that would show Scotland being able to keep the pound and join the Euro. If someone can provide some, it would be gratefully received.