General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]

Faugheen

So with Naughten and Peter Fitzpatrick gone. We have

49 FG
4 IA
Zappone

To make up 54 guaranteed votes. Throw Lowry and Canney into the equation and you have 56.

Even if FF abstain that's not a guarantee the government will have a majority. GE18 here we come.

tobsey

Nobody wants an election before Brexit is sorted in March. If the government falls because effectively those two bring it down then it should reflect badly on them. If we do have an election and end up with broadly the same administration then all that will have been achieved is massive upheaval at time when we could do with stability.

VinLieger

Naughton just admitted to having several other private meetings and dinners

Hurrache

Faugheen wrote: »

So with Naughten and Peter Fitzpatrick gone. We have

49 FG
4 IA
Zappone

As pointed out, Naughten is still there, doesn't necessarily mean he'll vote against the government.

Hitman3000

It has been said by Leo that Naughten admitted to a further 3 meetings that were unknown to Leo. Naughten's naivety is incredible or the rumours about him have some substance to them. He left before the spotlight fully turned on him.

Chips Lovell

I get the feeling he'll forever be known as Denis "Four Dinners" Naughten.

I got a bit of a laugh out of his resignation statement:

Mr Naughten said that “if I was a cynic, which I’m not I believe the outcome is more about opinion polls than telecoms poles. It’s more about optics than fibre optics.”

Are you sure you're not a cynic now Denis?

hatrickpatrick

I really wish we could change the Irish system so that a vote of no confidence in a single minister would merely mean that one minister's resignation and not a whole government collapse. Some have suggested that this would require constitutional change, but surely this is a matter of how one interprets the cabinet collectivity laid down in the constitution?

Hitman3000

Baron de Charlus wrote:

I got a bit of a laugh out of his

He made an absolute fool out of Leo. Leo and Coveny were expressing full confidence in Naughten only this morning.

James Brown

It's about saving face. Allowing an incompetent, be it by accident or intent, remain in office to save blushes is not good practice for governing, maybe for the government I suppose.

seamus

How many years is it since a new "telecoms pole" was erected in this country? Don't all the wires go underground now?

Another chancer like Michael Lowry; "Sure isn't this how business is done".

I don't think any party wants an election at this stage. If nothing else, nobody wants an election campaign and the associated fuss in the run up to Xmas.

Hurrache

Hitman3000 wrote: »

He made an absolute fool out of Leo. Leo and Coveny were expressing full confidence in Naughten only this morning.

Varadkar wasn't. He qualified his statement with "for now".

Faugheen

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I really wish we could change the Irish system so that a vote of no confidence in a single minister would merely mean that one minister's resignation and not a whole government collapse. Some have suggested that this would require constitutional change, but surely this is a matter of how one interprets the cabinet collectivity laid down in the constitution?

It's not that easy though in this situation. This is a minority government made up of FG and Independents with a deal in place with FF.

You can't constitutionally force a government to stay in place. If you think it's a shambles now it would be even worse if you constitutionally force then to remain in office.

Sam Russell

seamus wrote: »

How many years is it since a new "telecoms pole" was erected in this country? Don't all the wires go underground now?

Another chancer like Michael Lowry; "Sure isn't this how business is done".

I don't think any party wants an election at this stage. If nothing else, nobody wants an election campaign and the associated fuss in the run up to Xmas.

They are telegraph poles.

We have telecom towers or mobile phone masts, but not telecom poles.

Hitman3000

Faugheen wrote:

You can't constitutionally force a government to stay in place. If you think it's a shambles now it would be even worse if you constitutionally force then to remain in office.

Actually that's one of the President's few powers he/she can refuse to accept the dissolution of the Dail.

Hitman3000

Hurrache wrote:

Varadkar wasn't. He qualified his statement with "for now".

Semantics ,he still expressed confidence .

Hurrache

Confidence, for now. Leaving it open as to how things were going to shape up.

James Brown

There's no penalty for giving full confidence and it turning out to be misplaced. 'Full confidence' means nothing. It should but they've worn it nothing.

Hadn't Naughten stated all the inappropriate meetings were out in the open? Now we've more he told Varadkar about last night. I think the Ceann Comhairle should retract that 'integrity' remark in regards to Naughten.

hatrickpatrick

Faugheen wrote: »

It's not that easy though in this situation. This is a minority government made up of FG and Independents with a deal in place with FF.

You can't constitutionally force a government to stay in place. If you think it's a shambles now it would be even worse if you constitutionally force then to remain in office.

I'm not suggesting forcing any government to remain in place, what I'm merely saying is that in the context of the Cabinet being accountable directly to the Oireachtas, the Oireachtas should be able to vote that one specific minister as f*cked up and has to go - and if that happens, the Taoiseach of the day should merely be allowed to appoint a new one.

The American system whereby cabinet appointments have to be scrutinised and approved by the committee relevant to the department they've been appointed to would be even better, but at the very least, the Oireachtas should be able to sack a minister by voting no confidence without that automatically causing the question of a general election to appear. Right now, if there's a vote of no confidence in one specific minister, that almost automatically means a general election. It shouldn't be done this way - the Oireachtas should be able to get rid of an individual minister without collapsing the entire session the way it does at the moment.

Colonel Claptrap

Varadkar is dying for an excuse, any excuse, to go to the Aras.

This crisis could not have come at a better time.

FG want an election - they top the polls. FF want them to limp on for another year and let attrition bring them down the polls.

Sacking Naughten is the excuse he's been looking for.

FG can't collapse this government.
FF don't want to collapse this government.
Dail arithmetic will bring down this government.

A prediction for tomorrow's tabloid headlines: "The Perfect Storm" ??

Am i too cynical?

McMurphy

In a week where the lad on the Labour got more than the lad who actually gets up early in the morning and , um....labours, and then FGs blatant sop to the vintners under a health facade, I'm not so sure FG could consider this the perfect time for an election.

christy c

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

Varadkar is dying for an excuse, any excuse, to go to the Aras.

This crisis could not have come at a better time.

FG want an election - they top the polls. FF want them to limp on for another year and let attrition bring them down the polls.

Sacking Naughten is the excuse he's been looking for.

FG can't collapse this government.
FF don't want to collapse this government.
Dail arithmetic will bring down this government.

A prediction for tomorrow's tabloid headlines: "The Perfect Storm" ??

Am i too cynical?

Is the makeup of the Dail likely to change much? I would have thought not.

Fann Linn

Howlin and Dooley looked like hares caught in the headlights when Naughton resigned. I'd hazard a guess and say that both probably had their speeches ready and were prepared to go with both barrels, until Denis pulled plant.

Fann Linn

Naughton saying he told Varadkar last night about the private dinners. Leo tells the Dail he only heard today.
Someone is telling porkies.

James Brown

And what of this?

Mr Varadkar said he was informed late last night by Mr Naughten of a private dinner he had attended at Mr McCourt's home in 2017.

This dinner was organised by Minister for State Pat Breen, who was also at the dinner.
https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/1011/1002399-politics/

What has Breen to say for himself?

Faugheen

christy c wrote: »

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

Varadkar is dying for an excuse, any excuse, to go to the Aras.

This crisis could not have come at a better time.

FG want an election - they top the polls. FF want them to limp on for another year and let attrition bring them down the polls.

Sacking Naughten is the excuse he's been looking for.

FG can't collapse this government.
FF don't want to collapse this government.
Dail arithmetic will bring down this government.

A prediction for tomorrow's tabloid headlines: "The Perfect Storm" ??

Am i too cynical?

Is the makeup of the Dail likely to change much? I would have thought not.

Well even with Lowry and Canney have 56 votes and they need 57 even with FF abstaining.

Naughten will support on a case by case basis. That'll get them by on the Finance and Social Welfare bills but it's not sustainable in any way until Summer 2020 as Leo wants it to be.

Fann Linn

Matt Barrett wrote: »

And what of this?



What has Breen to say for himself?

I'd say he's hiding under a bushel at this time.

Colonel Claptrap

christy c wrote: »

Is the makeup of the Dail likely to change much? I would have thought not.

Government has 54 guaranteed votes but needs 57.

It needs Lowry, Canney and either Naughten or Fitzpatrick.

Both are in doubt.

A lost finance bill vote = automatic election.

James Brown

If there's an election now I'd say it will result much like the last one but with more of a loss to Fine Gael, despite what any polls might currently say.

Folk aren't happy with the budget, despite the spin on it all being about the welfare 5 euro. There's the troublesome crises with more tax payers getting smothered with high rents and sale prices, now this shambles. Not to forget the aul' 'full confidence' before his departure.

Edward M

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

Government has 54 guaranteed votes but needs 57.

It needs Lowry, Canney and either Naughten or Fitzpatrick.

Both are in doubt.

A lost finance bill vote = automatic election.

FF guaranteed to support this budget as part of the c&s agreement, can't see them breaking that, they'd then be seen as the catalyst, just can't see them giving that card to FG to throw at them in a campaign.

christy c

I wonder is there any chance of Renua making a bit of a gain? Maybe not, but every other party seems to be fighting over how much they can give to those who contribute least. You'd have to think there might be an opening for a centre right party.