General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]

markodaly

John McGuiness will have his time on the campiagn trail in a few months time where he can tell us all how he and FF would do things differently

Maybe it will be an improvement, maybe not, but one thing for certain will be that people will be sucked into the easy solutions he, FF and all other political parties peddle, and I include FG in that.

If we as an electorate fall for it, then we have no one to blame but ourselves with the state of the big pressing issues of our time.

McMurphy

Bishop of hope wrote: »

A bit of a solo run from FFs John Mc Guinness, the confidence and supply arrangement described as a farce and the saving of both Harris and Murphy this year criticised.
He reckons that FF should have backed both motions.
He is right about the farce imo.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-td-says-he-will-vote-against-government-in-future-motion-of-no-confidence-1.4106053?mode=amp

McGuiness has his eye on M.Ms role as leader perhaps.

blanch152

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

McGuiness has his eye on M.Ms role as leader perhaps.

Yes, and he will start coalition talks with Sinn Fein the very next day, watch this space.

Bishop of hope

https://gript.ie/siteserv-investigation-to-cost-more-than-7-times-original-estimates-taoiseach-says/?fbclid=IwAR3VeBVZ16LoZKL8_2NwrMGSWZAsurwtVs9bqb5xK0Ul_qL4-qLu6-lxBM0

I wonder what's the chances of this finishing before the election.

McMurphy

Bishop of hope wrote: »

https://gript.ie/siteserv-investigation-to-cost-more-than-7-times-original-estimates-taoiseach-says/?fbclid=IwAR3VeBVZ16LoZKL8_2NwrMGSWZAsurwtVs9bqb5xK0Ul_qL4-qLu6-lxBM0

I wonder what's the chances of this finishing before the election.

Supposed to be finished by the end of March, I envisage the elections to be taking place not too far away from that time, either before or after.

James Brown

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Supposed to be finished by the end of March, I envisage the elections to be taking place not too far away from that time, either before or after.

I think Noonan and his departments involvement should be laid bare before any election. Likely it won't, but we'll be told he was completely vindicated I'm sure.

McMurphy

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think Noonan and his departments involvement should be laid bare before any election. Likely it won't, but we'll be told he was completely vindicated I'm sure.

We were told Maria Bailey was vindicated.

Didn't work out too well for Maria.

L1011

Noonan's retiring and presumably they only expect O'Donnell to slide in to the seat rather than get two in down there so they may be willing to throw him under the bus. That said with the SF slide in Limerick City wards - poll toppers down to scraping in - Quinlavin's seat could be in play and FG were quite close to O'Sullivan last time too...

blanch152

L1011 wrote: »

Noonan's retiring and presumably they only expect O'Donnell to slide in to the seat rather than get two in down there so they may be willing to throw him under the bus. That said with the SF slide in Limerick City wards - poll toppers down to scraping in - Quinlavin's seat could be in play and FG were quite close to O'Sullivan last time too...

They got 34.19% in the Limerick City local elections, with 17% each for two candidates, that would bring 2 seats into play with the quota at 20%.

However, that included some rural areas which would vote stronger for FG, and won't come into play and there didn't appear to be any outstanding vote-getters in the city. Is there a Noonan Jr. or a Munster rugby player?

James Brown

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

We were told Maria Bailey was vindicated.

Didn't work out too well for Maria.

Time will tell. I think Fine Gael will look after her in some form.

Chips Lovell

They might give her Phil Hogan’s job whenever he steps down.

James Brown

Chips Lovell wrote: »

They might give her Phil Hogan’s job whenever he steps down.

Too high profile. Likely a Senate seat or such.

L1011

Chips Lovell wrote: »

They might give her Phil Hogan’s job whenever he steps down.

Are you predicting FG to be in Government in summer 2024?



Senate seat via the panels probably wouldn't work - she would not be flavour of the month amongst FG Cllrs and they would be the electorate - and they'd also need to be in Government to appoint to the nominees.

James Brown

L1011 wrote: »

Are you predicting FG to be in Government in summer 2024?



Senate seat via the panels probably wouldn't work - she would not be flavour of the month amongst FG Cllrs and they would be the electorate - and they'd also need to be in Government to appoint to the nominees.

I could see a junior partner FG bending Michael Martin's ear in exchange for something.

Bishop of hope

Maria Bailey is a victim of her own stupidity I think.
Maybe a senate seat, with a view to running her for Europe maybe next time out?
But maybe she will just fade off into the sunset as seatwise I don't ever see her getting a nod for a Dail election again.

Venom

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Maria Bailey is a victim of her own stupidity I think.
Maybe a senate seat, with a view to running her for Europe maybe next time out?
But maybe she will just fade off into the sunset as seatwise I don't ever see her getting a nod for a Dail election again.

Bailey forgot the golden rule Irish politicians have lived by for decades, when the shít hits the fan you keep your head down for a week or two until it all blows over. Her stunt on the Sean O'Rourke has cemented her image as the face of fraudulent claims and compo culture in Ireland and I can't see that mantle vanishing any time soon, so any plans for a senate seat or EU gig will just bring the matter back into the public eye again and onto whichever bright spark suggests such an idea.

L1011

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I could see a junior partner FG bending Michael Martin's ear in exchange for something.

To get the Commissioner seat you would need to give up so much other stuff. Ministers, your choice of AG, whatever - it's all in the ha'penny place to being allowed pick Commissioner.

If she gets another political place after the election I can't see it being much more than whoever replaced her dad on DLRCC stepping aside for her...

beggars_bush

Looks like the government will be defeated on this rent freeze vote put forward by Sinn Fein

markodaly

beggars_bush wrote: »

Looks like the government will be defeated on this rent freeze vote put forward by Sinn Fein

Yeap, just what the housing sector needs, more 'good-willed' but flawed government intervention.

Bishop of hope

beggars_bush wrote: »

Looks like the government will be defeated on this rent freeze vote put forward by Sinn Fein

It won't matter, this current Dail won't have time to get it in to law.
Prepare for rent increases in the next few months though, as SF have set in motion a fear among landlords now that will cause upward price movement.

markodaly

Well, welcome to the future as they say.

FF and SF may well be in government together and if they are this is the kind of populist stupidity we can expect.

Dytalus

markodaly wrote: »

Well, welcome to the future as they say.

FF and SF may well be in government together and if they are this is the kind of populist stupidity we can expect.

It's a quick fix...which in this case won't fix much of anything. As Bishop said above, landlords will hike prices before it comes in out of fear. Rent freezes will stymie the development of more rental accommodation. But we do need something short-term to help those most in need. I don't think a rent freeze is it, but I'll admit I'm not sure what else there is that hasn't been tried. But I fear you're right and people will see this quick fix, clap themselves on the back, and nothing more will happen.

While there are varying disagreements over the how, the problem comes down to supply. We could solve the housing crisis pretty quickly with a few 25 storey blocks in Dublin (assuming we built proper apartments designed for long term living. Most apartments I've seen/lived in while in Ireland very clearly aren't built to be 'homes' as much as 'places to rent until you have a house'). That's 200 or so homes per block, with decent density to limit the need to develop new infrastructure.

I used to buy into the "it can't be done overnight", but successive governments/ministers have been saying that since at least 2014 when Enda Kenny said we needed 30,000 per annum. We still need over 30,000 homes per annum, and the Government's own target is 25,000...and they're failing to even meet that. This "can't be built overnight" excuse is unacceptable at this point - 5+ years in and the situation's gotten worse. Their methods clearly aren't working. I'm not sure if anyone else has better solutions though, so...gah. It'll take a long time to allow LAs to have their own building crews to the same level as before, and even with the costs that are saved vs tendering out or buying from the market are counteracted with the higher cost of housing construction compared to 20 years ago. Low-density increases the costs more, because it spreads the necessary infrastructure to support developments out over wider areas instead of consolidating it closer to workplaces. It's all a mess.

Someone needs to get into power who's willing to sacrifice re-election to change the rules regarding density and planning obstruction. The hundreds of apartments going up in Cherrywood are going to be useless for working in Dublin, because the Luas is already overcrowded for commuters and the Metro expansion of the green line got lambasted. People are outright lying about trees being cut down for Bus Connects. All it'll take is four years of one "bad guy" government to make the decisions that'll piss off NIMBYs, and then everyone who gets in afterwards can shirk the blame going forward to "well we didn't change the laws, they did".

But that won't happen. Regardless of which party gets in, I don't think any of them will challenge the "Dublin is a quaint little georgian town and everyone should have a house with a garden and be 10 minutes from the office at the same time" view that people have. I don't even think it's most people who believe that - just the loud ones, and the loud ones get listened to. I know more than just Dublin needs housing, I'm just focusing on Dublin because it's where I live and work (along with a huge percentage of the country, I suppose) and I know it better.

*furious noises* Apologies, I only meant to address the SF/FF thing and then kinda spiraled because it's slow in work and I had a lot to say.

markodaly

Dytalus wrote: »

Someone needs to get into power who's willing to sacrifice re-election to change the rules regarding density and planning obstruction. T

This.

However, this is Ireland. As Bertie Ahern once famously said, the first job of a TD is to get reelected.

James Brown

beggars_bush wrote: »

Looks like the government will be defeated on this rent freeze vote put forward by Sinn Fein

I think it's a band aid on a laceration. It won't work unless incomes increase substantially and the freeze holds, even then it's a stop gap and won't help buyers. Mind if more landlords, (hobbyists and vulture funds) are forced out of it great. We need to make property speculation less attractive IMO.

Topgear on Dave

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Mind if more landlords, (hobbyists and vulture funds) are forced out of it great. We need to make property speculation less attractive IMO.

Genius idea Matt. Sure make it totally impossible for anyone to rent a place at all. :pac:

Colonel Claptrap

What rental crisis?

James Brown

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Genius idea Matt. Sure make it totally impossible for anyone to rent a place at all. :pac:

How so?

Bishop of hope

Matt Barrett wrote: »

How so?

It surely won't encourage anyone to get into the market if prices are Govt controlled imo.

James Brown

Bishop of hope wrote: »

It surely won't encourage anyone to get into the market if prices are Govt controlled imo.

The market place is government controlled, where do you think vulture funds get their builds and customers?

There's a difference between market supply and demand and industrial level property speculating companies buying up en masse with the approval and encouragement of government.
Why some other would like to ignore that fact for a jolly little quip is their own business.

Bishop of hope

Matt Barrett wrote: »

The market place is government controlled, where do you think vulture funds get their builds and customers?

There's a difference between market supply and demand and industrial level property speculating companies buying up en masse with the approval and encouragement of government.
Why some other would like to ignore that fact for a jolly little quip is their own business.

But basically everyone buying or renting out properties are vultures, very few are in it not to make money.
Our economy is Dublin driven, trying to get a better spread of work to outside the capital would be a bigger help imo.
This measure won't open up the housing or rental market, it will stifle it I think.

And BTW, FF jumping on this bandwagon has convinced me more that its the wrong thing to do.