General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

No one party will come near 80 seats.

I didn't say they would I'm saying that's the number for a majority government.

Water John

I accept that. Who, as it stands looks likely to increase seats? The Greens are the only ones and possibly FF.
Maybe every constituency now wants its independent. Those independents that made it into Govn't the last time, have generally IMO performed poorly.

Kermit.de.frog

Speaking of independents a lot of us will be looking forward to seeing the back of Shane Ross as a minister.

Surely among the most useless ministers in the history of the state.

He has done absolutely nothing in Transport not to mention his local gombeenism.

L1011

Water John wrote: »

I accept that. Who, as it stands looks likely to increase seats? The Greens are the only ones and possibly FF.
Maybe every constituency now wants its independent. Those independents that made it into Govn't the last time, have generally IMO performed poorly.

There will be less Independents, the local elections showed outright bonfires of them in some places. I suspect the ones in Government may be rewarded with a P45

FF will probably gain some seats. The Greens definitely will. Labour might. SF, FG and the hard left alphabet will lose seats

Sir Oxman

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I'm sure this will be said in the eventual election thread that will be started when the starting gun is sounded, but some important numbers to remember.

There will be 159 seats up for grabs(unless the sitting CC retires then it's 160) and the number for a majority is 80. So 80 is the magic number and in recent times that number has been very far away for anyone. I think the days of FF getting overal majorities are gone and I don't think FG have ever had one(because when they've been in power it's always with another smaller party)

That's an old saying - it's 43 years since any party got an overall majority in this country (FF). Coalitions/minority govts are the norm.

If it didn't happen in 2011, it's never gonna happen.

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

I accept that. Who, as it stands looks likely to increase seats? The Greens are the only ones and possibly FF.

I'm interested to see how Sinn Fein do as with the last local and European elections not being a great outing Mary Lou will be hoping for a good showing from the party. I think labour might make some gains if only modestly. Maybe the greens but it's not as if they'll get to double figures(they have three TDs as it stands).

I think both FF or FG need to get as many seats as they can because the Sinn Fein question goes away the nearer either party is to the magic number. Both FF and FG have said they won't go into coalition with SF but that can't last imo. There are more SF candidates now who have no connection to the past where voters may feel okay voting for them.

Kermit.de.frog

I can see a FG/Labour coalition.

The Greens won't go in with FF after what happened to them last time and id be concerned they will screw around with crucial transport projects like metro and road schemes that should be underway now.

L1011

PieOhMy wrote: »

Not sure if it was stated earlier but why would the 14th not work as a GE date?

Would there be potential for it not to be held on a Friday as recently happened in England or is it a given in Ireland that itl be a Friday?

The UK has gone for Thursdays for ages. Our recent convention is Friday. It can be changed but it would not be popular.

ddarcy

Water John wrote: »

I accept that. Who, as it stands looks likely to increase seats? The Greens are the only ones and possibly FF.
Maybe every constituency now wants its independent. Those independents that made it into Govn't the last time, have generally IMO performed poorly.

I think FF went out conservatively last time just to build their numbers back up. They did better than they thought they would. They’ll go full out this time, so I’d expect them to pick up some seats. The greens may pick up an odd seat, but I can’t see them on more than 4-5 at most. Labour may pick up some as well. I think both FG and SF will loser seats. Same goes for the alphabet soup parties as well. The indos might pick up some or lose some, it’s hard to tell with them. The indos I think are more susceptible to getting knocked back a bit as people may want a more stable government.

Itssoeasy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I can see a FG/Labour coalition.

The Greens won't go in with FF after what happened to them last time and id be concerned they will screw around with crucial transport projects like metro and road schemes that should be underway now.

Well if the greens won't work with FF after the lashing they got why would labour do the same with FG given the thumping they got ?

Kermit.de.frog

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well if the greens won't work with FF after the lashing they got why would labour do the same with FG given the thumping they got ?

Different context though. The greens were ejected with the bailout and treated very badly by FF. They took the main electoral hit for a disaster not of their making.

Won't be that type of memory or bad blood between FG/Lab which was a more traditional 'small partner taking the hit' routine.

L1011

Labour members have to approve any government deal that they aren't the largest party in. It would require a huge volume of concessions from FG to get that past a special conference. Four full ministers from 10-12 TDs and a huge social legislative programme for instance

Water John

Similar for the Greens with FF. A convention I think. Don't think Greens would fear Govn't esp with MM, no bad feeling there TMK.
FF are easier to bend on policy positions than FG, basically what do you want, we want to get into Govn't.

L1011

Labour would also see FF as easier to get one over on after 92.

is_that_so

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Different context though. The greens were ejected with the bailout and treated very badly by FF. They took the main electoral hit for a disaster not of their making.

Won't be that type of memory or bad blood between FG/Lab which was a more traditional 'small partner taking the hit' routine.

Hard to say with the Greens. They may push for their agenda more strongly, some of which FF would swallow. They also seem to accept that, our own Government behaviour aside, we got hit with a once in a lifetime economic jolt. Assuming they get 4-6 seats the likely Dail arithmetic might leave them in a position to turn down deals that they don't like.

Water John

Considering the overalls polls, the Greens must have good prospects in 4 and 5 seater constituencies.
Are there 5 seaters any more?

is_that_so

Water John wrote: »

Considering the overalls polls, the Greens must have good prospects in 4 and 5 seater constituencies.
Are there 5 seaters any more?

Yes there are a few of them , 11 in the last election, most of which they wouldn't have a hope in. Urban areas, largely Dublin, are their sweet spot. 4 would be very good and six exceptional.

ddarcy

is_that_so wrote: »

Yes there are a few of them , 11 in the last election, most of which they wouldn't have a hope in. Urban areas, largely Dublin, are their sweet spot. 4 would be very good and six exceptional.

I think they may keep 2 of the 3 now. Dun Laoghaire could be interesting. I could see that going 1 FG 1 FF 1 PBP and 1 Green. But they’ll really struggle outside Dublin. The green wave is nonsense. Essentially people couldn’t blue for FG and would naturally vote FF. But FF was in essence in government, so they went green as they weren’t going to touch anything else. There could be some Protest votes for them but they will not get much in teens of seats.

L1011

I have a feeling Rich Boy is a gonner to the Greens there, they won't both get a seat.

Adrian Kavanagh predicted him as the sole hard left TD left interestingly. DSC has two so would be most likely to retain one and even that seems unlikely

is_that_so

L1011 wrote: »

I have a feeling Rich Boy is a gonner to the Greens there, they won't both get a seat.

Adrian Kavanagh predicted him as the sole hard left TD left interestingly. DSC has two so would be most likely to retain one and even that seems unlikely

Is Hanafin a runner for a seat or do FG intend to try to hang onto two.

beggars_bush

ddarcy wrote: »

I think they may keep 2 of the 3 now. Dun Laoghaire could be interesting. I could see that going 1 FG 1 FF 1 PBP and 1 Green. But they’ll really struggle outside Dublin. The green wave is nonsense. Essentially people couldn’t blue for FG and would naturally vote FF. But FF was in essence in government, so they went green as they weren’t going to touch anything else. There could be some Protest votes for them but they will not get much in teens of seats.

I don't know.
The green party won seats in councils that they never had representation in before
I'd like to see the greens back in government again.
They might take the environment stuff more serious than FG

They massively improved our building standards and I'd hope much more help would come from the state to upgrade old houses and old school buildings etc

is_that_so

beggars_bush wrote: »

I don't know.
The green party won seats in councils that they never had representation in before
I'd like to see the greens back in government again.
They might take the environment stuff more serious than FG

They massively improved our building standards and I'd hope much more help would come from the state to upgrade old houses and old school buildings etc

Local elections tend to be protest votes and are not always a good GE indicator, especially for small parties,. The SDs also did well but can't see them getting beyond the 2 they have.

Kermit.de.frog

L1011 wrote: »

I have a feeling Rich Boy is a gonner to the Greens there, they won't both get a seat.

Adrian Kavanagh predicted him as the sole hard left TD left interestingly. DSC has two so would be most likely to retain one and even that seems unlikely

Surely the merry band of thugs he led out in Jobstown will show up at the polls?

No?

Topgear on Dave

Are you mixing up Richard Boyd Barrett and Paul Murphy?

L1011

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Surely the merry band of thugs he led out in Jobstown will show up at the polls?

No?

Wrong hard lefter, wrong constituency.

Rich Boy has a strong local base in DL from actually doing constituency work, something most other hard left candidates and also SF ones seem to forget is important. But if they're all going down he'll have trouble surviving

L1011

is_that_so wrote: »

Is Hanafin a runner for a seat or do FG intend to try to hang onto two.

FG intend to get two (down from an artificial three), but Hanifan has a chance. She has actually worked to try get back tbh, not that I'd vote for her

is_that_so

L1011 wrote: »

FG intend to get two (down from an artificial three), but Hanifan has a chance. She has actually worked to try get back tbh, not that I'd vote for her

Even without the MB subtext it always looked very competitive.

Kermit.de.frog

L1011 wrote: »

Wrong hard lefter, wrong constituency.

Rich Boy has a strong local base in DL from actually doing constituency work, something most other hard left candidates and also SF ones seem to forget is important. But if they're all going down he'll have trouble surviving

Ah yes, I got them mixed up.

Is Murphy under pressure in his constituency?

L1011

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ah yes, I got them mixed up.

Is Murphy under pressure in his constituency?

Yes, he's expected to lose his seat also. That's a very hard constituency to predict as it has some well off areas that always vote (and will probably vote Kearns again) and some of the most deprived areas in the state, that don't vote much at all

It's a mess really as Zapper is very unlikely to hold on also and SF could be in a little trouble based on LE results - although it's a big enough constituency that they should hold on

Kermit.de.frog

I'd love all of them to go.

They are not interested in solutions, only problems.