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General Irish Government discussion thread [See Post 1805]
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Banner fights back wrote: »It appears according to the Sunday Times newspaper that the Minister for finance Pascal Donohue will bring proposals to cabinet next week regarding the covid -19 unemployment payment of 350 euro.
It looks like that for those that were earning less than 350 euro a week before covid-19 struck that they will go transferred back on the normal jobseekers benefit. This could come into force by the 9th of June when the payment is due to expire.
Once again the vested narrow minded interests of the Business community to which Fg are a bit too cosy with trump the interests of ordinary hard working citizens. The FG narrative that "this payment disincentivises people going back to work" will get no leeway with people as once again it's the poorest in society that will suffer the greatest hardship.
It proves the point that FG have not changed one slight despite their disastrous GE showing last February. The Greens will be most foolish to join with this elitist party who once again put the vested interests of big business and those with deep pockets ahead of those struggling to put food on the table.
How does not paying more to people for not working than working prove that point?
I don't think this is about people on the minimum wage, it's about those working one or two days a week mostly.
Seems to indicate this might be longer term then expected0 -
ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »How does not paying more to people for not working than working prove that point?
I don't think this is about people on the minimum wage, it's about those working one or two days a week mostly.
Seems to indicate this might be longer term then expected
Many people would agree with that point you made. But we are talking about FG here and they always seem to have this fixation agenda against low paid workers. While you are correct in saying that it would be mostly part time workers that will be mainly affected with this change, as Richard Boyd Barrett pointed out in many cases part time jobs are the only solution for many workers due to issues getting alternative childcare one such prime example.
FG have major issue with people who are getting less paid in work than in receipt of some form of Social welfare. But it's such a shame they can't be as vocal on tackling tax exiles or introducing more progressive economic policies. It's a question of trust and as I said in my last post, vocal corporate interests are getting too much say in govt policy but we we know Fg have a far too cosy relationship with big business and corporations which spells bad news for hard working citizens who for many feel that FG continue to neglect them.0 -
Banner fights back wrote: »Many people would agree with that point you made. But we are talking about FG here and they always seem to have this fixation agenda against low paid workers. While you are correct in saying that it would be mostly part time workers that will be mainly affected with this change, as Richard Boyd Barrett pointed out in many cases part time jobs are the only solution for many workers due to issues getting alternative childcare one such prime example.
FG have major issue with people who are getting less paid in work than in receipt of some form of Social welfare. But it's such a shame they can't be as vocal on tackling tax exiles or introducing more progressive economic policies. It's a question of trust and as I said in my last post, vocal corporate interests are getting too much say in govt policy but we we know Fg have a far too cosy relationship with big business and corporations which spells bad news for hard working citizens who for many feel that FG continue to neglect them.
We have the second highest minimum wage in the EU. Many would agree because its true
Would be very interesting to see the percentage of the cases this will affect though0 -
ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »We have the second highest minimum wage in the EU. Many would agree because its true
Would be very interesting to see the percentage of the cases this will affect though
Having the second highest minimum wage in the EU is irrelevant as long as the cost of living continues to spike. Imagine imposing further austerity on those workers who are on the bread line which seems to be FG favorite choice at times of economic hardship. "Ah sure they won't cause much fuss" those politicians would argue.
Yet senior cabinet ministers are so reticent to take pay cuts. It's firmly one law for politicians along with their political elite and friends. While they expect thousands of workers to get considerably less a week from June. Where's the fairness in all this?
The budget may be 4 and a half months away. But already the signs are not good for those low paid workers who appear to lose the most in any austerity measures implemented while FG are in govt in some form.0 -
Banner fights back wrote: »It appears according to the Sunday Times newspaper that the Minister for finance Pascal Donohue will bring proposals to cabinet next week regarding the covid -19 unemployment payment of 350 euro.
It looks like that for those that were earning less than 350 euro a week before covid-19 struck that they will go transferred back on the normal jobseekers benefit. This could come into force by the 9th of June when the payment is due to expire.
Once again the vested narrow minded interests of the Business community to which Fg are a bit too cosy with trump the interests of ordinary hard working citizens. The FG narrative that "this payment disincentivises people going back to work" will get no leeway with people as once again it's the poorest in society that will suffer the greatest hardship.
It proves the point that FG have not changed one slight despite their disastrous GE showing last February. The Greens will be most foolish to join with this elitist party who once again put the vested interests of big business and those with deep pockets ahead of those struggling to put food on the table.
If you earned less than €350 for working before the pandemic, why should you get even more for not working during it?0 -
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Banner fights back wrote: »Having the second highest minimum wage in the EU is irrelevant as long as the cost of living continues to spike. Imagine imposing further austerity on those workers who are on the bread line which seems to be FG favorite choice at times of economic hardship. "Ah sure they won't cause much fuss" those politicians would argue.
Yet senior cabinet ministers are so reticent to take pay cuts. It's firmly one law for politicians along with their political elite and friends. While they expect thousands of workers to get considerably less a week from June. Where's the fairness in all this?
The budget may be 4 and a half months away. But already the signs are not good for those low paid workers who appear to lose the most in any austerity measures implemented while FG are in govt in some form.
This is your third post in a row comprising fact free, broad brush, attacks on FG. Have you any facts and figures that support your opinions?
If you are impressed by ANYTHING Boyd Barrett says - as you seem to be - I doubt if you have.
While searching you might keep in mind that Fg brought the unemplyment rate from 15% to 5% and balanced the books while doing so.
Credit where credit is due.0 -
Good loser wrote: »This is your third post in a row comprising fact free, broad brush, attacks on FG. Have you any facts and figures that support your opinions?
If you are impressed by ANYTHING Boyd Barrett says - as you seem to be - I doubt if you have.
While searching you might keep in mind that Fg brought the unemplyment rate from 15% to 5% and balanced the books while doing so.
Credit where credit is due.
Maybe he is Richard BB!0 -
Some info from Seamus Coffey:
https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1264606577115488256
For start of 2020, CSO estimate there were 482,000 part-time workers in Ireland (with 80% not seeking more hours).
Average hours worked per week by P-T workers is c.18.5.
Eurostat 2014 figures show median hourly earnings for P-T employees in Ireland (ex PS) of €160 -
Banner fights back wrote: »
Yet senior cabinet ministers are so reticent to take pay cuts. It's firmly one law for politicians along with their political elite and friends. While they expect thousands of workers to get considerably less a week from June. Where's the fairness in all this?
Is this you calling for public sector pay cuts?
It must be you calling for public sector pay cuts since you already know Minister and TDs pays are tied to the pay of the public service.0 -
CrabRevolution wrote: »If you earned less than €350 for working before the pandemic, why should you get even more for not working during it?
RBB and Paul Murphy really are just determined to kick the bottom rungs out of the job ladder. Between this and mandating 15 euro an hour minimum to return to work.
The second that payment came in I said it would be a nightmare hauling it back and that nightmare has already begun. Between PT workers milking more out of it and the estimated over 1000 people claiming it from a foreign country, it was a good idea on paper thats causing some serious negative effects.0 -
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CrabRevolution wrote: »If you earned less than €350 for working before the pandemic, why should you get even more for not working during it?0
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I understand why they brought it in and without checks so quickly but I don't believe mandating employers to electronically send in average basic wages over say 4-6 weeks previously could not have been implemented thereby eliminating people who earn say 150e per week normally getting 350e per week.
Or at minimum, that the whole govt apparatus could not have come up with refinements to the emergency payment over the past 10 weeks.
In no way should someone earning say 100 quid a week be receiving 350e a week.0 -
I understand why they brought it in and without checks so quickly but I don't believe mandating employers to electronically send in average basic wages over say 4-6 weeks previously could not have been implemented thereby eliminating people who earn say 150e per week normally getting 350e per week.
Or at minimum, that the whole govt apparatus could not have come up with refinements to the emergency payment over the past 10 weeks.
In no way should someone earning say 100 quid a week be receiving 350e a week.
pay batches are automatically sent to revenue for tax purposes, working out somebodys average weekly would have been pretty easy to do0 -
is_that_so wrote: »They had a simple rule about it, if it stopped you working you got paid the PUP. It was crude, flawed but very fast to implement and it's taxable income.
I just don't see the reasoning for paying people more for doing nothing than they were earning for actually doing work. What aspect of the pandemic justifies that?0 -
CrabRevolution wrote: »I understand that and it's reasonable enough, but the poster I was responding to said that it's wrong for the government to taper the payments down to better reflect the earnings people had before the pandemic,i.e. the actual money they are down because of the pandemic.
I just don't see the reasoning for paying people more for doing nothing than they were earning for actually doing work. What aspect of the pandemic justifies that?
Ireland isn't the only country where some very low earners get more through pandemic payments than they were previously earning - it happens also in Australia, and I wouldn't be in the least surprised to find it happening elsewhere. The purpose isn't to confer particular good fortune on the individuals concerned, but to have a simple, quick-to-implement system that will rapidly inject funds that are widely spread in the economy. The particular good fortune to the individuals is a by-product.
The usual objection - that this disincentivizes work - is met by pointing out that this is a temporary and short-term scheme. The incentive to work will be restored before very long, and in the meantime it's not a big problem, since a labour shortage is one of the few challenges that the economy doesn't face.0 -
Peregrinus wrote: »The aspect that the point of this is not just to protect individuals from the economic impact of the pandemic on them, but to protect the wider economy by injecting funds which will maintain consumer spending, and doing so as early as possible.
Ireland isn't the only country where some very low earners get more through pandemic payments than they were previously earning - it happens also in Australia, and I wouldn't be in the least surprised to find it happening elsewhere. The purpose isn't to confer particular good fortune on the individuals concerned, but to have a simple, quick-to-implement system that will rapidly inject funds that are widely spread in the economy. The particular good fortune to the individuals is a by-product.
The usual objection - that this disincentivizes work - is met by pointing out that this is a temporary and short-term scheme. The incentive to work will be restored before very long, and in the meantime it's not a big problem, since a labour shortage is one of the few challenges that the economy doesn't face.
Interesting - and relevant. You are making a macro economic point.
I would, though, prefer to direct the money towards the SMEs and the self employed. For instance the LA rates could be paid for directly by the State for all SMEs.0 -
Good loser wrote: »Interesting - and relevant. You are making a macro economic point.
I would, though, prefer to direct the money towards the SMEs and the self employed. For instance the LA rates could be paid for directly by the State for all SMEs.
Still, your basic point is sound. A direct and immediate subsidy to SMEs to keep as many of them trading as is possible would be very beneficial. Again, there would be unintended good fortune for those SMEs who would have remained trading anyway, and for those that actually enjoy better trading conditions as a result of the pandemic.0 -
Peregrinus wrote: »The aspect that the point of this is not just to protect individuals from the economic impact of the pandemic on them, but to protect the wider economy by injecting funds which will maintain consumer spending, and doing so as early as possible.
And a good amount of it probably went on highly excised goods
This was an emergency scheme and it had to be as simple as possible. My sis works in DEASP and they were balls to the wall for weeks.© 1982 Sinclair Research Ltd
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The mood music 're the government formation talks appears less rosy in the garden than what was the case around a week or 10 days ago.
The consequences of no government by the end of June are huge as social welfare payments won't roll over a month, unless the Seanad can meet and of course we need a permanent Taoiseach for that to happen, so to pass the social welfare estimates into law and other legislation.
Could Mary Lou McDonald still become Taoiseach if the govt formation talks collapse or one of the 3 of FF, FG or Greens can't get the programme for government through their party membership? Don't rule anything out in the most drawn out of processes.
The prospect of GE 2020 2.0 remains very high IMO.0 -
Banner fights back wrote: »The consequences of no government by the end of June are huge as social welfare payments won't roll over a month, unless the Seanad can meet and of course we need a permanent Taoiseach for that to happen, so to pass the social welfare estimates into law and other legislation.
If the government dissolved tonight, the earliest an election would be if 3 weeks. Then you’ll need a seanad election, etc. There would be no way this is possible before the end of August.
Out of curiosity, as I don’t think this has ever happened, if the government was dissolved without the Taoiseach nominees, would we be back in the scenario as last time? So effectively the Seanad can pass legislation? I wouldn’t think the former 11 would be brought forward and it would only be the sitting members. If that is the case then August is the earliest for something to happen legislation wise.0 -
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If the government dissolved tonight, the earliest an election would be if 3 weeks. Then you’ll need a seanad election, etc. There would be no way this is possible before the end of August.
Out of curiosity, as I don’t think this has ever happened, if the government was dissolved without the Taoiseach nominees, would we be back in the scenario as last time? So effectively the Seanad can pass legislation? I wouldn’t think the former 11 would be brought forward and it would only be the sitting members. If that is the case then August is the earliest for something to happen legislation wise.
If the current 33rd Dail is dissolved by the President, on request by the taoiseach, then we are into general election time. There's no going back in the Irish poltical system.
Oh by the way, if the current govt formation talks end in stalemate then IMO Michael D who has been a beacon of light and hope during these dark times while the whole world was in crisis mode, I believe will tell Mr Varadkar to get the hell out of the Aras if he goes to to seek the dissolution of the 33'rd dail, without all avenues explored. That includes getting involved in meaningful discussions with Sinn Fein and the other left leaning parties.
A very fascinating month of political drama awaits the nation.0 -
Banner fights back wrote: »If the current 33rd Dail is dissolved by the President, on request by the taoiseach, then we are into general election time. There's no going back in the Irish poltical system.
Oh by the way, if the current govt formation talks end in stalemate then IMO Michael D who has been a beacon of light and hope during these dark times while the whole world was in crisis mode, I believe will tell Mr Varadkar to get the hell out of the Aras if he goes to to seek the dissolution of the 33'rd dail, without all avenues explored. That includes getting involved in meaningful discussions with Sinn Fein and the other left leaning parties.
A very fascinating month of political drama awaits the nation.
Despite being of the opinion that Michael D has been a good inspiring President I don`t believe he would take that step.0 -
Banner fights back wrote: »The mood music 're the government formation talks appears less rosy in the garden than what was the case around a week or 10 days ago.
The consequences of no government by the end of June are huge as social welfare payments won't roll over a month, unless the Seanad can meet and of course we need a permanent Taoiseach for that to happen, so to pass the social welfare estimates into law and other legislation.
Could Mary Lou McDonald still become Taoiseach if the govt formation talks collapse or one of the 3 of FF, FG or Greens can't get the programme for government through their party membership? Don't rule anything out in the most drawn out of processes.
The prospect of GE 2020 2.0 remains very high IMO.
Micheal Martin could go back to the party and seek permission to talk to SF. Then having got that dump FG and line up a coalition with SF Soc Dems and a few indos0 -
Cork Boy 53 wrote: »Despite being of the opinion that Michael D has been a good inspiring President I don`t believe he would take that step.
Of course he won't, because it would be completely pointless. FG have been clear and consistent that they would never go into govt with SF and it is a perfectly legitimate position to take and no business of the president. There is absolutely no constitutional requirement to "talk to everybody" about govt formation.
He would potentially reject dissolution if a FF/SF, or any other potential govt looked remotely plausible but as of right now it doesn't.0 -
I think we have a few more cards to play before Michael D would give the go ahead for an election.
Micheal Martin could go back to the party and seek permission to talk to SF. Then having got that dump FG and line up a coalition with SF Soc Dems and a few indos
LOL
That's the last thing Micheal Martin would do.
The FF party might however force him to start talking to SF or face an immediate leadership challenge instead.
Micheal Martin is so desperate to be Taoiseach that he probably would start talking to Sinn Fein and publicly take back everything he has said if that was his only option of being Taoiseach even if it was for only a matter of months.
Of course Micheal Martin will regurgitate the same quote he made earlier this year, and claim that he hasn't done yet another U-turn“We will not be entering into a grand coalition, people want change, it’s very clear, the message we’re receiving [is] people want change in this country, they want Fine Gael out of office,” he said.
The real question is would SF actually entertain the whole idea?
A general election would probably result in FF losing yet more seats and both SF and FG gaining seats.
The conundrum for SF would be do they go for another election expecting to gain more seats, but more importantly expecting parties that they would consider likely coalition partners also gaining seats so that combined they get that magic number of 80 seats in the Dail, or accept a coalition with FF knowing than many sparks will fly and it will be a stormy 4 years in government if Michael Martin remains leader of FF.0 -
FF have to go into coalition with FG. SF is odd the menu now with MM in charge. They have zero credibility at this point. Martin is solely looking out for himself here so he will do anything to ensure he's in power by the end of these negotiations.
FG have a chance to neuter FF going forward once they keep the Taoiseach, Finance and DFA.
Relent on any of them and they've rehabilitated FF and could see themselves dwindle at the next GE.0 -
BonnieSituation wrote: »FF have to go into coalition with FG. SF is odd the menu now with MM in charge. They have zero credibility at this point. Martin is solely looking out for himself here so he will do anything to ensure he's in power by the end of these negotiations.
FG have a chance to neuter FF going forward once they keep the Taoiseach, Finance and DFA.
Relent on any of them and they've rehabilitated FF and could see themselves dwindle at the next GE.
But surely FG need FF to survive now more than ever.
This is the way I see it.
With the majority of the electoral vote now split three ways and not as before between FF and FG, the likelihood of any party forming a government with a handful of independents, or the Dail whores (sorry I meant to say the Labour party) is virtually nill. With that in mind who could FG rely on as a coalition partner that could deliver enough seats in the Dail.
Without FF having sufficient seats in the Dail, FG are goosed because the left of centre parties will naturally prefer a SF coalition rather than a FG coalition. It would be hard to see how FG could ever form a government unless they were winning around 60 seats in an election.
In effect FG need FF to dilute the left of centre vote, and that will not happen if FF are neutered or diminished.0 -
But surely FG need FF to survive now more than ever.
This is the way I see it.
With the majority of the electoral vote now split three ways and not as before between FF and FG, the likelihood of any party forming a government with a handful of independents, or the Dail whores (sorry I meant to say the Labour party) is virtually nill. With that in mind who could FG rely on as a coalition partner that could deliver enough seats in the Dail.
Without FF having sufficient seats in the Dail, FG are goosed because the left of centre parties will naturally prefer a SF coalition rather than a FG coalition. It would be hard to see how FG could ever form a government unless they were winning around 60 seats in an election.
In effect FG need FF to dilute the left of centre vote, and that will not happen if FF are neutered or diminished.
I don't think so. Centrist liberal voters will coalesce around FG. What do FF offer them?
We're going to see a proper Nordic-esque realignment. And FF are gonna be the losers. And not before time.
I just don't see how FF can reignite a base in urban areas that SF, FG and Greens/SD have. They're going to spend their time picking up votes for the likes of conservative Catholics and very little else.
FG have been pretty consistent throughout the whole government formation process. FF have flip flopped at every turn and based on the murmurings a few weeks back with leaks from the talks, there's no discipline and FG are running rings around them.0 -
BonnieSituation wrote: »I don't think so. Centrist liberal voters will coalesce around FG. What do FF offer them?
We're going to see a proper Nordic-esque realignment. And FF are gonna be the losers. And not before time.
I just don't see how FF can reignite a base in urban areas that SF, FG and Greens/SD have. They're going to spend their time picking up votes for the likes of conservative Catholics and very little else.
FG have been pretty consistent throughout the whole government formation process. FF have flip flopped at every turn and based on the murmurings a few weeks back with leaks from the talks, there's no discipline and FG are running rings around them.
I take your point that a lot of those that would consider themselves centrists might throw their lot in with FG, but there will be many of them that wont, especially after having been through the austerity measures after the banking crisis, where poor old joe public middle income worker bore the brunt, while the wealthy, and those on social welfare felt austerity least. Some of these people are still dealing with the repercussions of austerity and to tell them there's more on the way because of the massive government debts due to covid is hardly going to have them queuing up to vote for FG again.
The problem for FG will be they will need enough of the FF vote to swing them to get at least 60 seats if they ever wanted the chance of forming a government. Personally I cant see that type of swing happening if FF imploded like Labour have, but politics is a strange beast. Realistically you are looking at the majority of the FF vote migrating to FG for FG to be anyway sure of forming a government again. Essentially they would be waiting for a SF government to make such a balls up that a massive swing would be likely. Both FG ad FF have made a balls up on many occasions, so its fair to assume that if SF got into government on a number of occasions they would too.0 -
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Without FF having sufficient seats in the Dail, FG are goosed because the left of centre parties will naturally prefer a SF coalition rather than a FG coalition. It would be hard to see how FG could ever form a government unless they were winning around 60 seats in an election.
In effect FG need FF to dilute the left of centre vote, and that will not happen if FF are neutered or diminished.
And where do you think the FF votes will go to in such an event? Not FG?
The polls show this to be the case, a rise of support for FG at the express expense of FF. Put simply, the centre-ground or the centre-right will coalesce around FG, therefore they will elect plenty of TD's enough to be a major force in Irish politics.
One could indeed argue the opposite, that there are not enough left-wing votes to form the elusive left-wing government. Even this time out, there are not enough votes or seats.0
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