Fpl Price Changes 2018/2019

Benimar

machiavellianme wrote: »

Looking like hazard will drop again tonight. I guess folks don't think he'll run riot against Fulham

I think folks don’t think in general to be honest!

According to Fantasyfootbalfix 11.1% of all transfers this week are Hazard to Sterling. It’s the ‘easy’ move money wise and I don’t reckon a lot of FF players look beyond that.

Sterling has a CL game midweek and is a potential rotation risk. Hazard has the worst defence in the league at home.

I’m not saying people are wrong to make the transfer, but I don’t think they have considered all options either.

Iused2likebusts

machiavellianme wrote: »

Looking like hazard will drop again tonight. I guess folks don't think he'll run riot against Fulham

They must Know Im holding onto him. It can only mean one thing no attacking returns.

Pete_Cavan

I agree with the above. Most people seem to make transfer based on what has happened last week, rather than what could happen next week. Of course the guy who just scored big last week might well score big again next week but there is a lot of context (opposition, fixtures in other competitions, changes in personnel, etc.) which can have a bearing on that.

Taxuser1

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

I agree with the above. Most people seem to make transfer based on what has happened last week, rather than what could happen next week. Of course the guy who just scored big last week might well score big again next week but there is a lot of context (opposition, fixtures in other competitions, changes in personnel, etc.) which can have a bearing on that.

But the guy being transferred in is scoring big most recent weeks against everyone. Hazard might get double points but Sterling probably will. Can see the logic

F1ngers

Downers:
Jonny
Vestergaard
Hazard
Damour

No uppers.

Pete_Cavan

Taxuser1 wrote: »

But the guy being transferred in is scoring big most recent weeks against everyone. Hazard might get double points but Sterling probably will. Can see the logic

But it is possible, maybe likely, that Hazard gets a good score against Fulham and that Sterling gets reduced game time against Bournemouth, in which case it would have been better to hang on to Hazard for another week. I see the logic of bringing in Sterling too but my point is that what's logical can change based on the circumstances.

Benimar

Taxuser1 wrote: »

But the guy being transferred in is scoring big most recent weeks against everyone. Hazard might get double points but Sterling probably will. Can see the logic

There may be a logic in bringing in Sterling for Hazard long term (I don't see why it has to be this week with Hazards nice home game) but why do it before the CL games (bar having the exact cash)?

What if Sterling starts up front in Lyon? New owners will be sweating waiting on the Bournemouth team sheet, thats for sure.

What if Sterling gets injured?

What if someone like Salah was to pick up a knock? Many with Hazard probably have Salah too, so will have transferred out the 'wrong' player.

For the sake of 0.1 or 0.2 I really don't understand people making early transfers during CL week. It's asking for trouble.

claw

Benimar wrote: »

There may be a logic in bringing in Sterling for Hazard long term (I don't see why it has to be this week with Hazards nice home game) but why do it before the CL games (bar having the exact cash)?

What if Sterling starts up front in Lyon? New owners will be sweating waiting on the Bournemouth team sheet, thats for sure.

What if Sterling gets injured?

What if someone like Salah was to pick up a knock? Many with Hazard probably have Salah too, so will have transferred out the 'wrong' player.

For the sake of 0.1 or 0.2 I really don't understand people making early transfers during CL week. It's asking for trouble.

I am a person who has done early transfers in the past to catch price rises, but this season is ridiculous. I can only assume there are more people doing multiple transfers a week because the constant price changes don't make sense.

Benimar

Benimar wrote: »

There may be a logic in bringing in Sterling for Hazard long term (I don't see why it has to be this week with Hazards nice home game) but why do it before the CL games (bar having the exact cash)?

What if Sterling starts up front in Lyon? New owners will be sweating waiting on the Bournemouth team sheet, thats for sure.

What if Sterling gets injured?

What if someone like Salah was to pick up a knock? Many with Hazard probably have Salah too, so will have transferred out the 'wrong' player.

For the sake of 0.1 or 0.2 I really don't understand people making early transfers during CL week. It's asking for trouble.

There will have to be 2-3 high risers injured before it stops happening.

So if Sterling got injured this midweek then a lot of people would learn a harsh lesson.

Until that happens the early risers will keep rising.

Shedite27

Just play the game and stop whinging about price rises

Green&Red

People take the risk. If Sterling is going up 0.1 and Hazard going down then they’re obviously thinking the 0.2 is worth the risk of a -4

On that, what would you value -4 at? I think 0.2 is probably about right

Benimar

Green&Red wrote: »

People take the risk. If Sterling is going up 0.1 and Hazard going down then they’re obviously thinking the 0.2 is worth the risk of a -4

On that, what would you value -4 at? I think 0.2 is probably about right

If you have to sell Sterling you don’t get the 0.1 though.

If I sold Hazard I’d only get 10.9 for him, and have to get him back at 11.2.

To reverse the transfer would cost a -4 and possibly 0.3. That’s a big risk.

And also the risk of an additional -4 if he gets injured midweek.

-8 if you’ve to spread the funds.

machiavellianme

No changes. Bah.

2nd Row Donkey

Tupac gif required.

S.M.B.

Is there any injury data freely available? Because I'm wondering if the risk of an early transfer strategy is a little exaggerated? I put myself in the 'try not to contribute to early price rises but will bite the bullet if it's the difference between me maximising my available resources' camp.

I'm sure there are numbers out there somewhere which would clearly identify the chances of an outfield player in your team picking up an injury in training during the week and during a 90 minute game.

I would assume the number is extremely low which would of course mean that a) it actually rarely backfires on people and b) as klopparama says above, one high profile case will probably turn a lot of people off making these early changes going forward.

The odds would be even lower when ruling out injuries that result in a player missing only one game as some people could tolerate this to a certain extent.

Scorpion Sting

Up:



D. Silva, Pickford


Down:



Lichtsteiner, Trippier, Lacazette, Monreal, Tarkowski, Barnes, Depoitre, Ibe, Ghezzal

Scorpion Sting

Up:





Chilwell, Sterling

Down:





Hayden, Gudmundsson, Holebas, Ream

McBain11

Serious thought going into those :-)

machiavellianme

McBain11 wrote: »

Serious thought going into those :-)

Not really. What has a bale of straw got to do with anything?
Hay is from grass, not barley stalks.

RossieMan

That's not a grass field.
Looks like straw.

Edit: beaten to it.

2nd Row Donkey

Spot the farmers.

patmac

machiavellianme wrote: »

Not really. What has a bale of straw got to do with anything?
Hay is from grass, not barley stalks.

Hay den you come up with a better pic.

Shanotheslayer

machiavellianme wrote: »

Not really. What has a bale of straw got to do with anything?
Hay is from grass, not barley stalks.

The straw represents how much of a ****e Hole(bas) the country is :pac:

Pete_Cavan

Hazard possibly heading for a second price drop this GW. The good thing about the Friday deadline is I could transfer out Hazard tonight after the GW14 deadline so still having him for the Fulham game and protecting my current 0.2 profit on him. If he looks like dropping I'll probably bring in Alli which also gives me funds to bring in Kane for Aguero if I feel it necessary.

Scorpion Sting

machiavellianme wrote: »

Not really. What has a bale of straw got to do with anything?
Hay is from grass, not barley stalks.

RossieMan wrote: »

That's not a grass field.
Looks like straw.

Edit: beaten to it.

Tough crowd in here!

machiavellianme

patmac wrote: »

Hay den you come up with a better pic.

In all the years since the FSA forum started, I have not and will not be posting a picture in this thread. I'm not going down the road of that argument again.

manual_man

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

Tough crowd in here!

RossieMan

A little Mickey in my life and I'm happy.

manual_man

machiavellianme wrote: »

In all the years since the FSA forum started, I have not and will not be posting a picture in this thread. I'm not going down the road of that argument again.

I understand. It was the final straw




























:pac: