Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

acequion

Not so nice in Tralee, very showery. Might be starting to brighten up a bit now,or not as I see more rain clouds over west. Feeling mild.

highdef

acequion wrote: »

And that's where I have a problem with this current weather pattern. In a normal Feb you'd expect it to be Baltic and you'd dress accordingly.

But with all this hype re busting Feb records and high double digit temps forecast you just don't know what to put on. And end up either sweating or frozen. Which imo is a major pain in the ass. Gotta love a proper Feb when you wrap up nice and cosy in your coat,scarves,gloves and feel good, instead of this layers malarky.

Welcome to global warming folks,what else can it be!

Just put on whatever clothes are suitable for the weather on that particular day. If all goes well this weekend, you might even be able to wear some nice summer(ish) clothes, maybe with a nice fashionable top if you get a bit chilly. Would be a nice change to have an early taste of summer when we're still over three months from the start of meteorological summer.

Saying you don't know what to put on because the weather is cooler or warmer than you expect at any given time of year is not a great excuse. The weather forecast will have given you forewarning as to what to expect in the short range and you can plan for that. Another thing you can do is stick your hand or head (or whatever floats your boat) out a window or door to get an idea as to how warm/cold it is outside, before picking your outfit for the day but that's best done in conjunction with weather forecasts (and best to stick to the likes of Met Eireann rather than an app on your phone).

If you get up out of bed in July, do you automatically dress is a nice summer outfit, say shorts, light t-shirt/shirt, nice light shoes, on the principal that you assume it's going to warm and nice out because it's the height of summer?

We are surrounded by a relatively warm body of water. The vast majority of the time, the air that passes over us has arrived via the never very cold Atlantic Ocean and has a lot of moisture in it. Depending on the direction, it could be rather chilly but more often than not, it's quite mild. As the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean does not vary too much, month on month, any air arriving here from a west biased direction is almost always going to be mild.

The temperature ranges in this country are actually extremely small compared to many other countries, hence why we have a temperate climate. Try living is some parts of inland North America, where you can quite often have temperature fluctuations of over 30c in a couple of days. In fact, the record is almost 30c rise in temperature in 2 minutes!

So in short, don't dress as per your personal expectations but dress as per the actual conditions and don't think too much about what the season or month is. I'm pretty sure you have different outfits to suit all weather conditions. Lastly, check the forecast beforehand in case there are expected to be changes in the weather during the day (which is quite regular) so that you can bring additional clothing or some sort of bag to store extra layers of clothes that are not required as the day progresses.

acequion

highdef wrote: »

Just put on whatever clothes are suitable for the weather on that particular day. If all goes well this weekend, you might even be able to wear some nice summer(ish) clothes, maybe with a nice fashionable top if you get a bit chilly. Would be a nice change to have an early taste of summer when we're still over three months from the start of meteorological summer.

Saying you don't know what to put on because the weather is cooler or warmer than you expect at any given time of year is not a great excuse. The weather forecast will have given you forewarning as to what to expect in the short range and you can plan for that. Another thing you can do is stick your hand or head (or whatever floats your boat) out a window or door to get an idea as to how warm/cold it is outside, before picking your outfit for the day but that's best done in conjunction with weather forecasts (and best to stick to the likes of Met Eireann rather than an app on your phone).

If you get up out of bed in July, do you automatically dress is a nice summer outfit, say shorts, light t-shirt/shirt, nice light shoes, on the principal that you assume it's going to warm and nice out because it's the height of summer?

We are surrounded by a relatively warm body of water. The vast majority of the time, the air that passes over us has arrived via the never very cold Atlantic Ocean and has a lot of moisture in it. Depending on the direction, it could be rather chilly but more often than not, it's quite mild. As the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean does not vary too much, month on month, any air arriving here from a west biased direction is almost always going to be mild.

The temperature ranges in this country are actually extremely small compared to many other countries, hence why we have a temperate climate. Try living is some parts of inland North America, where you can quite often have temperature fluctuations of over 30c in a couple of days. In fact, the record is almost 30c rise in temperature in 2 minutes!

So in short, don't dress as per your personal expectations but dress as per the actual conditions and don't think too much about what the season or month is. I'm pretty sure you have different outfits to suit all weather conditions. Lastly, check the forecast beforehand in case there are expected to be changes in the weather during the day (which is quite regular) so that you can bring additional clothing or some sort of bag to store extra layers of clothes that are not required as the day progresses.

Yes boss. Will bear that long post of advice in mind when next am planning an outfit.:pac:

Gonzo

mostly dry and sunny today again, feeling chilly but still relatively mild. We've become so used to warm temperatures this winter, that 9C feels cold.

Looks largely dry for much of the country over the next 7 to 10 days with rain and drizzle mostly in western areas. Eastern areas will probably finish February on a very dry note.

If the long range models are to be believed March looks unsettled with lots of Atlantic fronts and rainfall, but that's way out beyond FI.

Cork Boy 53

Gonzo wrote: »

mostly dry and sunny today again, feeling chilly but still relatively mild. We've become so used to warm temperatures this winter, that 9C feels cold.

Looks largely dry for much of the country over the next 7 to 10 days with rain and drizzle mostly in western areas. Eastern areas will probably finish February on a very dry note.

If the long range models are to be believed March looks unsettled with lots of Atlantic fronts and rainfall, but that's way out beyond FI.

I thought the charts were showing a strong possibility of record breaking Feb temperatures from next weekend. Has that been downgraded now?

Gonzo

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I thought the charts were showing a strong possibility of record breaking Feb temperatures from next weekend. Has that been downgraded now?

no the high temperatures are still there for next weekend, I don't think we'll break records, perhaps getting close to 18C. Still that is crazy for February, some parts of Ireland struggle to hit that in July during poor summers.

We may have a bit of a temperature crash during the first week of March, enjoy the very mild of the next 10 days while it lasts.

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

mostly dry and sunny today again, feeling chilly but still relatively mild. We've become so used to warm temperatures this winter, that 9C feels cold

Yeah same here, just been in navan for a walk, and it was fairly chilly, was grand to feel the heat when i got home

Gonzo

The rest of February also looks very dry and extraordinarily mild. Possibly big changes into first week of March, with temperatures tumbling from well above average to possibly slightly below average, a big temperature drop is possible considering the abnormal heights of next weekend.

I don't think any serious cold is on the way, but it could well turn out to be properly chilly into the first week of March, compared to the dizzy heights of the last 10 days of February. Interesting model watching ahead.

Ultimate Seduction

Gonzo wrote: »

no the high temperatures are still there for next weekend, I don't think we'll break records, perhaps getting close to 18C. Still that is crazy for February, some parts of Ireland struggle to hit that in July during poor summers.

We may have a bit of a temperature crash during the first week of March, enjoy the very mild of the next 10 days while it lasts.

What is the current record for warmest temperature in February, or in winter?

sryanbruen

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

What is the current record for warmest temperature in February, or in winter?

18.1c at Phoenix Park on 23rd February 1891. For Winter, the highest is 18.5c at Glasnevin on 10th January 1998.

Artane2002

Not that I expect anything but I have to say the ensemble mean is pretty impressively cold towards the end. I'm going to guess it's from a northwesterly though.

Gonzo

Artane2002 wrote: »

Not that I expect anything but I have to say the ensemble mean is pretty impressively cold towards the end. I'm going to guess it's from a northwesterly though.

several of the members including the operational GFS want to keep the high pressure close by into first week of March, several members want to bring a cold zonal pattern and a few are hinting at northerly's.

My guess is that I think we'll slowly lose the high pressure and the Atlantic will make it's presence very much felt by the second week of March. I don't see anything properly cold happening, but it may end up certainly a good deal colder than 15/16C, those sort of temperatures are just not sustainable at this time of the year.

Rebelbrowser

Just looking at the 18z gfs, there is a helluva lot of cold to our North East in two weeks time that looks to me like it might yet pay us a visit.....

JCX BXC

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just looking at the 18z gfs, there is a helluva lot of cold to our North East in two weeks time that looks to me like it might yet pay us a visit.....

Oh stop!

Villain

Ah the ECMWF start to Spring is funny this morning on 00z

Kamili

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just looking at the 18z gfs, there is a helluva lot of cold to our North East in two weeks time that looks to me like it might yet pay us a visit.....

Username checks out

Rebelbrowser

Kamili wrote: »

Username checks out

GFS 0z even more so actually.......

Kamili

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

GFS 0z even more so actually.......

:eek:

Rebelbrowser

Kamili wrote: »

:eek:

Just saying ...

km79

NO THANKS

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

18.1c at Phoenix Park on 23rd February 1891. For Winter, the highest is 18.5c at Glasnevin on 10th January 1998.

.... and just over two weeks later came the biggest snowstorm ever known in Britain - The Great South West Blizzard.
An estimated 200 people and 6000 farm animals died in this storm, many ships were wrecked in the Channel and trains and passengers were buried for days in gigantic drifts. It is said there were 300 foot drifts on Dartmoor but this is most likely exaggerated.
Looking at this chart there must have been snow in the south of Ireland?



That March was a blocked month which must have been a shock after a summery Feb!

pad199207

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just saying ...

Ridiculous carry on altogether

Oneiric 3

I'm sorta here tapping my foot wondering when this big mild spell will come? This morning, like pretty much the last few mornngs, feels as chilly and as cheerlessly dank as any morning you expect at this time of year.

sideswipe

At this stage I'll be hoping we get our easterlies in 2-3 months rather than 2-3 weeks!

km79

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm sorta here tapping my foot wondering when this big mild spell will come? This morning, like pretty much the last few mornngs, feels as chilly and as cheerlessly dank as any morning you expect at this time of year.

Yeah disappointing

Oneiric 3

Just looking at some maps, and regarding 2m temp anomalies, I don't think that I have seen such a deep cold pool entering the western N. North Atlantic from eastern Canada in a fair while: (forecast chart for later this week)





What makes this all the more interesting is that we have already seen a fairly big cool down (SST wise) over a large part of the N. Atlantic over the last week or so:

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so heaven only knows how this upcoming deep cold pool might enhance these anomalies even more once it spills in over the western portion of the ocean.

sryanbruen

The very mild spell was always expected to start Thursday of this week.

km79

sryanbruen wrote: »

The very mild spell was always expected to start Thursday of this week.

But the last few days were supposed to be mild
They are far from it in the west

sryanbruen

km79 wrote: »

But the last few days were supposed to be mild
They are far from it in the west

No they weren't, they were supposed to be average after the end of last week's very mild conditions in the east.

Oneiric 3

Phase 1 was due to start last week? and it never felt what you would call 'mild' here, despite temps breaking the 10.0c mark on a number of days. I've felt more warmth outside with temps at a more typical 5.0c. There was a dirty feel to the air mass then, and there is even a dirtier feel to it now.