Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Phase 1 was due to start last week? and it never felt what you would call 'mild' here, despite temps breaking the 10.0c mark on a number of days. I've felt more warmth outside with temps at a more typical 5.0c. There was a dirty feel to the air mass then, and there is even a dirtier feel to it now.

The pattern favoured eastern regions. 16.5c in Dublin, 17c in Wales.

km79

sryanbruen wrote: »

No they weren't, they were supposed to be average after the end of last week's very mild conditions.

It wasn’t very mild last week ........

Oneiric 3

sryanbruen wrote: »

The pattern favoured eastern regions. 16.5c in Dublin, 17c in Wales.

I don't live in the east.. or Wales.

sryanbruen

km79 wrote: »

It wasn’t very mild last week ........

Not in your neck of the woods in Galway, in the east it was.

EDIT: Yes, I'm being a bit IMBYism myself.

Gonzo

km79 wrote: »

But the last few days were supposed to be mild
They are far from it in the west

yep, the past few days had been forecasted a dip in temperatures, It's still actually relatively mild, but because we've become used to such mild temperatures this winter, the current conditions feel chilly.

Conditions such as the past 2 days would have felt very mild last winter when we struggled in low single digits for much of last winter.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I don't live in the east.. or Wales.

Though I did feel quite a chill in the southerly wind at times last week I must admit especially in shelter from the sun.

Oneiric 3

I'm not sure I can fully accept the relativity argument. Temps barely felt any warmer during last week's 'mild spell' than they did during the cooler snap at the start of the month.

Maybe I am just getting weary of this God-forsaken winter to the point where it beginning to distort my perceptions. Just so endlessly, endlessly unadorned.

Gonzo

I think most of us here who love the cold and snow just want to move on from this winter and forget about it. Spring may begin with a cold start to March but after that hopefully we will be back to mild. My thoughts have already shifted to focus on this summer.

Gonzo

latest GFS runs are live, certainly some rather chilly and unsettled conditions into the first week of March, most are going for cold zonal. A few are hinting at slight easterlies but they look rather weak. By far the mildest of the runs is the GFS para run showing mild south-westerlies to end the first week of March.

SleetAndSnow

Heating still needs to be turned on in Cork City, been about 9/10 degrees but feels bitter because of the wind making the house not feel warm. Just been grey skies aswell, very little blue. Looking at the forecasts things won't improve this weekend either besides the East.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Any upgrades / downgrades for the coming mild spell?

Rebelbrowser

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Heating still needs to be turned on in Cork City, been about 9/10 degrees but feels bitter because of the wind making the house not feel warm. Just been grey skies aswell, very little blue. Looking at the forecasts things won't improve this weekend either besides the East.

Yeah, can't get over how cold it has felt the last 4 or 5 days. In Dublin today and no better.

Say my name

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Just looking at some maps, and regarding 2m temp anomalies, I don't think that I have seen such a deep cold pool entering the western N. North Atlantic from eastern Canada in a fair while: (forecast chart for later this week)





What makes this all the more interesting is that we have already seen a fairly big cool down (SST wise) over a large part of the N. Atlantic over the last week or so:

[IMG][/img]

so heaven only knows how this upcoming deep cold pool might enhance these anomalies even more once it spills in over the western portion of the ocean.

Most likely increase the chances of drought this year in Europe and perhaps ourselves.
Although I think a combination of a warm Mediterranean and cold Atlantic favours drought in Europe but interesting none the less.

Gonzo

Abdullah Millions Cord wrote: »

Any upgrades / downgrades for the coming mild spell?

no real change. Just looking mostly colder first week of March and alot more unsettled. The GFS para run wants to keep us more mild with mild south-westerlies. No real guarantee of the colder first week of March yet as that is still very much in FI.

SleetAndSnow

Lunchtime weather didn't exactly fill me with joy. Just shows rain or showers pretty much every day down here . Awful week.

Harry Palmr

Just seen the RTE forecast - jasus they really do love a downgrade of good weather. They better be wrong.

km79

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Lunchtime weather didn't exactly fill me with joy. Just shows rain or showers pretty much every day down here . Awful week.

Even up as far as last Friday the last 3 days were forecast to be good in the west
I was watching it closely as we were staying in Westport and hoping to climb the reek /do cycle

Downgrades started Friday evening
And now it looks like the same is happening again

Snow Garden

km79 wrote: »

Even up as far as last Friday the last 3 days were forecast to be good in the west
I was watching it closely as we were staying in Westport and hoping to climb the reek /do cycle

To be fair you can do the reek in nearly all weather. I prefer to climb it when it's wild.

This guy did it every day for a year
https://www.dailyedge.ie/278km-later-charity-climber-completes-365-day-trek-of-croagh-patrick-149224-Jun2011/

km79

Snow Garden wrote: »

To be fair you can do the reek in nearly all weather. I prefer to climb it when it's wild.

This guy did it every day for a year
https://www.dailyedge.ie/278km-later-charity-climber-completes-365-day-trek-of-croagh-patrick-149224-Jun2011/

Try telling that to an 8 year old LOL

Gonzo

latest Met Eireann forecast on RTE certainly looks a considerable downgrade in terms of sunshine with a mostly damp and cloudy week and weekend to come, particularly in the west and south. Temperatures also don't look as high, maybe reaching 16C by the weekend.

I suppose we couldn't let this winter pass without at least one more downgrade to add to the list. I doubt we're looking at record breaking temperatures from this, but still much milder than usual for the time of year.

SleetAndSnow

Gonzo wrote: »

latest Met Eireann forecast on RTE certainly looks a considerable downgrade in terms of sunshine with a mostly damp and cloudy week and weekend to come, particularly in the west and south. Temperatures also don't look as high, maybe reaching 16C by the weekend.

I suppose we couldn't let this winter pass without at least one more downgrade to add to the list. I doubt we're looking at record breaking temperatures from this, but still much milder than usual for the time of year.

Average temp for us down south is around 9/10 degrees if the internet is correct. In that case Met Eireann were predicting around 11 degrees which isn't very much above average, only place that could see above average temps is the east and possibly the north east I am assuming. Most other places will be about average or 1/2 degrees above I would say.

This, too me, is a worse downgrade then when the cold doesn't come because they were at least pretty far in FI. This though, Cloud and wet muck

Artane2002

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Average temp for us down south is around 9/10 degrees if the internet is correct. In that case Met Eireann were predicting around 11 degrees which isn't very much above average, only place that could see above average temps is the east and possibly the north east I am assuming. Most other places will be about average or 1/2 degrees above I would say.

This, too me, is a worse downgrade then when the cold doesn't come because they were at least pretty far in FI. This though, Cloud and wet muck

We still have 7 months of mild/warm temperatures so I'm fine with the downgrade. I thought the January easterly downgrade was worse.

Cloudy and chilly here near Dublin Airport today.

Harry Palmr

Why would you be happy with worse weather than expected?

SleetAndSnow

Artane2002 wrote: »

We still have 7 months of mild/warm temperatures so I'm fine with the downgrade. I thought the January easterly downgrade was worse.

Cloudy and chilly here near Dublin Airport today.

My fear is, the way this has been going we will be stuck with 11-15 degrees temperatures and just grey clouds and rain with the occasional sun as has happened before even though the models show otherwise but downgrade. Hopefully spring 2019 won't be as bad as winter 18/19

Artane2002

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Why would you be happy with worse weather than expected?

A few reasons:

I don't want (mid) teens in February

I can never get enough of the nice weather but in fairness the weather has been great for a while... I won't be disappointed with something if I already had a good amount of it

I'm not "happy" with the downgrades but I don't have an issue with them.

Bsal

Dublin airport TAF has zero mention of any sort of rain today yet it's been raining at the airport continuously for the last 2hrs, how can it be that wrong?

TAF EIDW 191100Z 1912/2012 18015KT 9999 SCT020 BKN040 PROB30 TEMPO 1914/2009 BKN013 TEMPO 1915/1918 19017G27KT BECMG 1918/1920 21017KT TEMPO 1918/2011 21020G30KT=

Gonzo

Overall I've been very dissapointed with this Winter, but February up until today was good due to the mostly mild, sunny and dry conditions. Today has turned into a real dirty day, wasn't expecting this much rain.

The charts last weekend were looking like we were in for very close to record breaking temperatures and sunshine this weekend, but now that's more confined to England and Wales with Ireland under a more Atlantic influence with lots of cloud and some damp conditions.

From this point forward I am more than happy to see the Atlantic muck kick in for the next two months. I rarely find anything exciting about March or April as it's usually too late for proper cold and too early for real warmth.

If we could get the unsettled muck out of the way by May, leading into hopefully a warm, dry summer, then that would be great.

Storm 10

Absolutely terrible day in Galway raining non stop since this morning in a very cold strong and wind, not what I expected after looking at ME last Sunday Temp of 6 degrees

SleetAndSnow

Eh February is going to go into one of the worst for me most likely. It was average tempertures here basically every day but felt a lot colder due to the cold breeze (which has been strong a lot really), the sun wasn't really out much bar one or two days but otherwise it was mostly grey. Lots of failed cold attempts in Feb and so on. Bar the first day or two where it actually snowed which was brilliant, it's been a real letdown of a month. But eh I suppose thats what the general Irish climate is really. (Also I think im just in a depressed mood because my pre-exams begin next week )

sryanbruen

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Eh February is going to go into one of the worst for me most likely. It was average tempertures here basically every day but felt a lot colder due to the cold breeze (which has been strong a lot really), the sun wasn't really out much bar one or two days but otherwise it was mostly grey. Lots of failed cold attempts in Feb and so on. Bar the first day or two where it actually snowed which was brilliant, it's been a real letdown of a month. But eh I suppose thats what the general Irish climate is really. (Also I think im just in a depressed mood because my pre-exams begin next week )

Sunshine totals for February 2019 up to the 18th:

Casement Aerodrome - 80.9 hrs
Dublin Airport - 78.3 hrs
Cork Airport - 56.3 hrs
Shannon Airport - 50.6 hrs

Didn't expect today to be a particularly great day and that's what it has turned out indeed. Worst day in a good while here. Cloudy and wet muck with it feeling chilly.

Probably one of the best Februaries of my life with all the sunshine and great scenes I've been treated with. I'm an outlier though as February doesn't look to have been a good month for many people I know (not just you).