Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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kittyn wrote: »

Does anyone remember the week before the first cold shot in November 2010 it was unseasonably warm too or is my mind playing tricks on me??

The start of November '10 was quite mild....high of 15.5c on 3rd. The middle of the month was average with highs around 10c.

Donegal Storm

Gonzo wrote: »

This is why yesterday I was saying that I'm not going to get excited yet.

This up coming cold spell is nothing like the cold we had last February/March. We are currently several degrees warmer than normal for the time of year and there is going to be a very gradual cooling over the next 5 to 10 days. We are still in Autumn, Winter doesn't begin for anther 2 weeks and there is currently no proper cold anywhere in Europe.

We need this cold spell to build and build with a high moving over to Greenland so the real cold air can filter from Siberia during the final few days of November and into the start of December. It's not till the end of this month where snow potential is possible, eastern Europe should be much colder by then than it is now.

The last few days of November is still a long way off, roughly 10 days of cooling down before we get to the good stuff and there is every chance this will upgrade or downgrade several times before the fun even begins. For now all it is, is an interesting Observation.

If this goes belly up, no huge loss as winter hasn't even started yet.

Indeed, I know its just a bit of fun but the hysteria over the past few days has been well over the top, its looking cool/cold and frosty but little more than that.

Interesting synoptics but on the ground there's nothing particularly exciting in the forecast, I'll gladly just take a dry, frosty week if that's on offer

Villain

It is fine margins and GFS OP was a an outlier in the longer term but ECMWF is sticking to its guns.

This is why you don’t get excited about +240 charts but the building blocks are there. My hunch is it will take a few bites of the cherry for the real cold to arrive and being honest I’d much rather it in a few more weeks, too early is not as much fun imo.

RobertKK

Winter not even started yet, it will be long enough, plenty of time for snow, ice and freezing water pipes.

Cork Boy 53

RobertKK wrote: »

Winter not even started yet, it will be long enough, plenty of time for snow, ice and freezing water pipes.

Not to mention the "Are orange/red warnings warranted" threads if we do get some severe wintry weather.:rolleyes:

Villain

Reading Netweather today:

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1063502183868628992?s=21

CirrusBusiness

Great chart viewing for the very early stages of winter. Wouldn't be getting disappointed at the very first sight of a cold snap going rather pear shaped in November. As always, it's going to be another rollercoaster except there are some more variables in favour of a cold winter this year. I expect at least a couple of fairly disruptive episodes between December and February given these favourable variables. Give it some time for the continent to cool down and it will provide a significant cold pool to tap in to from the east. Then it's only a matter of time with better results in Dec-Feb. Still very early stages..

Slieve Gullion

kittyn wrote: »

Does anyone remember the week before the first cold shot in November 2010 it was unseasonably warm too or is my mind playing tricks on me??

On the ball. There was extremely heavy rainfall for a solid few days in the run up to that big freeze.

Birdnuts

Slieve Gullion wrote: »

On the ball. There was extremely heavy rainfall for a solid few days in the run up to that big freeze.

Looks like there could be a repeat of that as a LP looks like it will anchor itself just off the SE coast for a good few days as milder air to our West battles the frigid stuff to our East.

sryanbruen

kittyn wrote: »

Does anyone remember the week before the first cold shot in November 2010 it was unseasonably warm too or is my mind playing tricks on me??

Chart for 3 November 2010 when Dungarvan, Co. Waterford recorded a maximum of 19.0c, the highest November temperature in Ireland since 1989.

MR PIGGY

kittyn wrote: »

Does anyone remember the week before the first cold shot in November 2010 it was unseasonably warm too or is my mind playing tricks on me??

Was it not November 27th 2009?

sryanbruen

MR PIGGY wrote: »

Was it not November 27th 2009?

?

27th November 2009 was a fairly cool to average day with sunshine and showers.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Will try and give a detailed response when possible, don’t have any strong thoughts on such happening, in fact quite the opposite. Sorry to sound like a Scrooge.

As for Christmas itself, that’s very random. Even in mild and or wet December’s, a white Christmas can occur. The whitest Christmas in the last 50 years in terms of snow falling in places was 2004 which was in an otherwise mild December and a forgettable Winter too. 1993 was another example in a mild and very wet December.

My thoughts have not changed despite the model runs of the past week with some very abnormal charts. 0z runs this morning continue to downgrade with southerly winds becoming present in FI now as low pressure heads west and high pressure exerts influence into Europe and the Med.

leahyl

sryanbruen wrote: »

My thoughts have not changed despite the model runs of the past week with some very abnormal charts. 0z runs this morning continue to downgrade with southerly winds becoming present in FI now as low pressure heads west and high pressure exerts influence into Europe and the Med.

Ah ffs! :-P

cherryghost

sryanbruen wrote: »

?

27th November 2009 was a fairly cool to average day with sunshine and showers.

What a memorable day

Kermit.de.frog

The trend is really positive for those who want a sharp start to winter.

Don't be hung up on charts run to run. It's the overall trend that matters.

The Nutty M

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not to mention the "Are orange/red warnings warranted" threads if we do get some severe wintry weather.:rolleyes:

And the meltdowns by posters pre-snow onset. Grumpy old pensioners one was funny as he was never seen again,as was sryanbruens late night capitulation only to rise from the ashes stronger and better.
Bring on the sneachta.

hatrickpatrick

The Nutty M wrote: »

as was sryanbruens late night capitulation only to rise from the ashes stronger and better.

Must have missed this, what happened there?

Calibos

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The trend is really positive for those who want a sharp start to winter.

Don't be hung up on charts run to run. It's the overall trend that matters.

;)

kittyn

Well Santa already delivered with a fantastic win 🀣🀣🀣🀣

Clonmel1000

kittyn wrote: »

Well Santa already delivered with a fantastic win 🀣🀣🀣🀣

The challenge game?

kittyn

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

kittyn wrote: »

Well Santa already delivered with a fantastic win 🀣🀣🀣🀣

The challenge game?

If you wanna call it that ..... I call it the Irish second win over the All Blacks for Ireland

SleetAndSnow

That gfs 18z tho. Hurricane force blizzards anybody? (300hrs into FI so definitely not gonna happen. Just a typical pub run being drunk )

Snowbiee21

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

That gfs 18z tho. Hurricane force blizzards anybody? (300hrs into FI so definitely not gonna happen. Just a typical pub run being drunk )

30th of November , can’t wait lol

pad199207

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

That gfs 18z tho. Hurricane force blizzards anybody? (300hrs into FI so definitely not gonna happen. Just a typical pub run being drunk )

I do love those drunken chart runs of the 18z, ya know the real mad ones that show Ireland getting like literally buried in snow with huge snow drifts and gale force winds and wishing/dreaming that they would happen......

It happened in March 2018 ;-)

sdanseo

Aforementioned pub run - disclaimer, this will not happen.

But for those who like to imagine, if it did it would make Emma look like a light breeze and a dusting. National red warning, 100km/h+ mean winds onshore in the north and somewhere in the region of 10 to 40cm of snow in 12hrs.

M.T. Cranium

That map strains the imagination beyond its normal limits, that's for certain. It's an evolution that I don't think I could find anywhere in the historical maps, something fairly similar to a Midwest U.S. late November blizzard set-up. Just for the sake of "what if" though, I'm not so certain about heavy heavy snowfall with that, despite the low thicknesses, more like localized heavy snow streamers bringing severe blizzards to much of Ulster and Connacht, trending more to sporadic snow of various intensities further south. Winds would certainly be extreme however. Something like NW 100 to 140 km/hr would be likely. It would certainly be a life-threatening situation for anyone attempting to travel on roads in the northwest, or caught out in it. Temperatures would be something like -2 C with wind chills of -20 C.

And I also don't think it could verify. Storms on that track almost always have a more gradual onset of colder air, that looks very North American as if there's no Atlantic there at all.

Will see what the 00z run coughs up there and update if there's anything out of the ordinary.

As to what 2009 and 2010 brought before cold weather arrived, my recollection is 2009 was fairly mild all through November and gradually turned more easterly after mid-December. There was a heavy rainfall event in mid-November 2009. As to November 2010, there was about a week to ten days of mild Atlantic southwest flow, a windstorm around the 12th then progressively colder with the flow really sinking fast followed by the northeast fetch snow events. That lasted into first week of December, there was a brief milder interval, then it got more extreme in the second bout of cold and snow, all ending rapidly on the 26th with just minor teasers after that in early January (2011).

M.T. Cranium

00z GFS has no trace of that type of storm, just a relatively modest frontal wave tracking in the same direction but with no cold air involved.

I suspect with the circulation we have now, we'll be seeing occasional FI shockers until something more definite starts to brew, I advise patience here because the research I mentioned is pointing more towards late December and January for serious winter potential. The first half of December could turn out to be fairly bland and near normal although this wintry pattern may be pressing down gradually by then.

Liffey4A

I see mention on a 'winter forecast' in MTs daily forecast thread.
I must have missed Mt's winter forecast, can someone post a link to it please?

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

00z GFS has no trace of that type of storm, just a relatively modest frontal wave tracking in the same direction but with no cold air involved.

I suspect with the circulation we have now, we'll be seeing occasional FI shockers until something more definite starts to brew, I advise patience here because the research I mentioned is pointing more towards late December and January for serious winter potential. The first half of December could turn out to be fairly bland and near normal although this wintry pattern may be pressing down gradually by then.

sryanbruen

Liffey4A wrote: »

I see mention on a 'winter forecast' in MTs daily forecast thread.
I must have missed Mt's winter forecast, can someone post a link to it please?

Been posted several times now in this thread....

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?page=41&tab=comments#comment-3911916