Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

SleetAndSnow

First night in a while that there is a nip in the air outside in cork city. Could see my breath. Still drizzling though wouldn't want to go outside you get soaked in it.

Gonzo

the next 6 to 10 days are looking mostly dry and cloudy, which is something we really need after all the rain of the past 2 months.

There may be some sun and clear skies in the east and north at times which could allow some night time frosts.

Western areas may see drizzly conditions at times but most areas staying dry.

Around mid month there are suggestions that the Atlantic may make a return while others are hinting at a colder more north-easterly set up. Looks very uncertain what will happen past next week.

For now I think the main thing is to enjoy the dry conditions of the next week, that we are very unlikely to see any proper Atlantic muck for some time to come. Hopefully by this time next week we may be a bit clearer on how the rest of January plays out.

Billcarson

I would love for starters if we could get rid of this cloud. This bloody incessant cloud!!!!

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

I would love for starters if we could get rid of this cloud. This bloody incessant cloud!!!!

Seems that it's proven more stubborn than models were forecasting.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1080570296762019845

Lucreto

I don't know when I last seen the sun. I thought I would see it this morning with the frost but it clouded up before the sun rose.

From how quiet the forum was today I expected the SSW event must have backtracked again.

Defaulter1831

Lucreto wrote: »

I don't know when I last seen the sun. I thought I would see it this morning with the frost but it clouded up before the sun rose.

From how quiet the forum was today I expected the SSW event must have backtracked again.

It's quiet here because, as was predicted, a few more days are required to see how it impacts on the atmosphere further down.

We were never going to have any answers today or tomorrow. By the weekend FI might start showing some change.

Lucreto

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

It's quiet here because, as was predicted, a few more days are required to see how it impacts on the atmosphere further down.

We were never going to have any answers today or tomorrow. By the weekend FI might start showing some change.

I might be misremembering but it felt like there was more banter going on even at this early stage.

Donegal Storm

Easily the quietest I've ever seen it on here in my 12 (I think!) winters reading the forum, I'm enjoying the lack of wind and rain so not complaining at all but would be nice to at least have the prospect of something on the models. Just endless high pressure and mild westerlies even at the far reaches of FI recently

Defaulter1831

Lucreto wrote: »

I might be misremembering but it felt like there was more banter going on even at this early stage.

I think we're in no man's land at the moment. Out to 16 days on GFS nothing major happening.

It's a waiting game Around the start of the Feb 2018 SSW there was plenty of chat as the weather was mobile and interesting in itself. Very little you can say about these days.

By 6th/7th January 10 days out FI will be showing change. I predict Then the fun begins!

acequion

As long as it stays dry I won't complain too much. As a recent poster said this is a waste of high pressure and I'll certainly be saying amen to that if it's bucketing down next week when I'm back at work. Dry calm weather during the working week makes life easier,for me anyway.

sicknotexi

MT still bullish about a prolonged cold spell between mid to late Jan and mid Feb, 4 to 1 in favour of cold if I understood correctly.

MT: Given the stratospheric pattern and the evident weakness of the Pacific at present (can't even deliver El Nino warming to my house 300 miles from the ocean) I place the odds at 4:1 in favour of a sustained cold spell this winter, most likely timing 15 Jan to 25 Feb. The 1855 analogue looks closest to a perfect fit but hey, with all these major cold years showing similar signs, you have to be optimistic.



From my very limited understanding the effects of the SSW won't start been shown in models until a good few days and models will take a time to get to grips with it. One thing is for sure, it will be an interesting few weeks model watching. I'm very optimistic of snow in late Jan and into February.

Graces7

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Of course. I'm not talking major illness requiring hospital visits. But those ones that require a GP visit and medication as expensive as the fuel saved. A huge amount of people I know are out of work with infections.

Infections have nothing to do with cutting down on heating. They come from contact with people with infections. infections thrive in hot places. cool is healthier.

Being cooped up in warm rooms and offices is an infection's playground .. they multiply and thrive

I, like many pensioners, have to be very careful with fuel I also have an illness which has destroyed my immune system. So I take care re being around people who have infections. Result is that although I rarely use heating, no infections here.

We should be like eg Japan where folk wear face masks in public.

M.T. Cranium

Well this morning I feel more optimistic about this cold spell than at any time during this high-hate-us (watch somebody steal that one).

The ECM goes on a feel-it-out mission days 6 to 8 then has all the chips in hand on day ten, looks like a desire to shove (yes I do play).

I've been reading that the GFS-p is even better. The GEM is dismal but we'll take those odds.

Graces7

Loving this calm quiet spell... But then I am a weather heretic; called June "the Scorch"!

Graces7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well this morning I feel more optimistic about this cold spell than at any time during this high-hate-us (watch somebody steal that one).

The ECM goes on a feel-it-out mission days 6 to 8 then has all the chips in hand on day ten, looks like a desire to shove (yes I do play).

I've been reading that the GFS-p is even better. The GEM is dismal but we'll take those odds.

It is apprecialbly colder today.

Defaulter1831

Graces7 wrote: »

Infections have nothing to do with cutting down on heating. They come from contact with people with infections. infections thrive in hot places. cool is healthier.

Being cooped up in warm rooms and offices is an infection's playground .. they multiply and thrive

I, like many pensioners, have to be very careful with fuel I also have an illness which has destroyed my immune system. So I take care re being around people who have infections. Result is that although I rarely use heating, no infections here.

We should be like eg Japan where folk wear face masks in public.

I'm not relating infections to cutting down on heating Grace.

I was pointing out that many say one benefit of this benign weather is saving money on heating. I prefer good frost to kill germs. I was pointing out that the savings on heating are being lost in my household on doctors' bills and medicine.

jArgHA

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The ECM goes on a feel-it-out mission days 6 to 8 then has all the chips in hand on day ten, looks like a desire to shove (yes I do play).

I've been reading that the GFS-p is even better. The GEM is dismal but we'll take those odds.

Hopefully the GEM is a flop, with the ECM being the turn and GFS-p the river.

ZX7R

Graces7 wrote: »

Infections have nothing to do with cutting down on heating. They come from contact with people with infections. infections thrive in hot places. cool is healthier.

Being cooped up in warm rooms and offices is an infection's playground .. they multiply and thrive

I, like many pensioners, have to be very careful with fuel I also have an illness which has destroyed my immune system. So I take care re being around people who have infections. Result is that although I rarely use heating, no infections here.

We should be like eg Japan where folk wear face masks in public.

Great post.
Only thing is the Japanese were masks as to not catch infection rather than prevent spreading infection.
Source: my friends wife who is Japanese

nthclare

Another interesting thing I heard is never have cold showers, supposedly it increases white blood cells and instead of enhancing the immune system,it makes it harder for the immune system to work.

Sycamore Tree

It's a misconception that cold weather kills off 'bugs'.

The influenza virus is transmitted best at cooler temperatures and low humidity. The virus thrives in winter months and fades in summer months.
Lots of studies on this, just Google e.g. http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

I am loving this winter walking weather but also looking forward to some extreme cold!

Mortelaro

I'm of the view that viruses thrive around Xmas time when there's more travel and mixing of people
I'd have thought,it's less prevalent in summer time because people are out and about in the fresh air more,more so than it can't survive

Graces7

ZX7R wrote: »

Great post.
Only thing is the Japanese were masks as to not catch infection rather than prevent spreading infection.
Source: my friends wife who is Japanese

same thing though . If you do not catch you cannot spread

Gonzo

this is getting a bit OT but it is always linked to the weather. You will catch a cold or flu regardless of the weather, the temperature doesn't really matter.

Getting into contact with others who are sick or if you've had an unhealthy few weeks, a cold/flu can build up.

After Christmas is the classic time for this with so many people socializing and eating/drinking/smoking anything they want over a 7 to 10 day festive period.

A healthy diet can help reduce the risk, I find that spicy food in particular is excellent at keeping colds/flus at bay if eaten regularly. I tend to put decent chillies and spices into most of my meals and I am rarely ever sick. I haven't really had a proper cold in over 3 years.

The only weather situation that could cause a cold would be exposure to a cold wet day without the proper clothing and not drying off properly soon afterwards.

nacho libre

ZX7R wrote: »

Great post.
Only thing is the Japanese were masks as to not catch infection rather than prevent spreading infection.
Source: my friends wife who is Japanese

This is very relevant to me now.
I wish I could persuade my father to wear one, but he is stubborn and self- conscious. My love of cold weather is well known, but i have to admit i can see it from clonmel's points of view now in recent times, this weather has been ideal for travelling to and from the hospital.
I still love cold weather though, i have not gone to the dark side yet

Calibos

Graces7 wrote: »

same thing though . If you do not catch you cannot spread

Yeah, but it changes my impression of them from conscientious civic minded folks who don't want to spread their current infection onto anyone else, to paranoid germaphobes.

I totally would understand if they have compromised immune systems like yourself but theres too many Japanese people wearing them for that to be the main reason. Or if the masks where to protect against high megalopolis air pollution in Japanese cities but seemingly its because they don't want to catch other peoples germs according to the other posters japanese friend/wife?? Paranoid Germaphobes it is then!

I've worked behind a till for over 25 years and am within about 2ft of hundreds of people a day. Say 300 people x 365 days x 25 years = Nearly 3 million discrete customer interactions. I've had the Flu Once and haven't even had a cold or sore throat in the last 7 or 8 years. Now maybe that last bit kind of goes against the point I am trying to make if the lack of colds/sore throats these last 8 years is because I caught and became immune to all 200 forms of rhinovirus in the previous 20 years!! Point is though, I'm not going to permanently wear a white face mask on the off chance that I might catch a common cold!!

[Edit] following Nacho's point, I would of course have no problem wearing them in a hospital or when interacting with someone with a compromised immune system if they asked me to whether I was currently sick myself or not.

Sorry for continuing the off topic tangent. Only saw Gonzo's post after I submitted this.

ZX7R

nacho libre wrote: »

This is very relevant to me now.
I wish I could persuade my father to wear one, but he is stubborn and self- conscious. My love of cold weather is well known, but i have to admit i can see it from clonmel's points of view now in recent times, this weather has been ideal for travelling to and from the hospital.
I still love cold weather though, i have not gone to the dark side yet

Sorry to hear your father is unwell, hopefully 2019 will be better for you all.

sryanbruen

Lucreto wrote: »

I might be misremembering but it felt like there was more banter going on even at this early stage.

The February 2018 SSW was far more straightforward than this one is for numerous reasons - one could be the time of year as we're at a period of time when the Polar Vortex is normally peaking compared to February when it's on its way to hibernation. At that time, we also had some wintry weather (that Defaulter1831 mentioned) and colder than average conditions already along with a good bit of Winter sunshine too I might add.

Kinda thankful for the quietness if I'm honest. It did get a bit ridiculous on here last Winter.

ZX7R

I just have feeling that the cold is going to flow further east than the models are showing today,there has been a trend of this nature in the charts for a while.
I believe a glancing blow of cold and we will get 3 to 4 day cold snowy spell and return to similar conditions to now but with clear skies.
I also thought the same in 2010.
I wasn't a bordsie then.
I was way out with my feeling

Sycamore Tree

Gonzo wrote: »

The only weather situation that could cause a cold would be exposure to a cold wet day without the proper clothing and not drying off properly soon afterwards.

I am sorry but this is simply not true. You cannot contract the cold/flu virus from cold/wet weather alone. You still need to have contact with the virus. As I posted earlier, cold weather makes it easier for the virus to spread. In cold temps, the flu virus in particular forms a special outer coating to help it travel through the air and into another person. In the summer, the wet, humid air pulls the virus to the ground, so it’s less likely to be inhaled by someone else.

Getting wet/cold etc can weaken your immune system but that's a different discussion.

monkeybutter

ZX7R wrote: »

Great post.
Only thing is the Japanese were masks as to not catch infection rather than prevent spreading infection.
Source: my friends wife who is Japanese

This is incorrect, being a nice bunch it's mostly to stop your coughing infecting others, this is where they are effective, not so effective at protecting the wearer


source : once watched the karate Kid Part 2