Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

We're almost at the half way point in Winter and not a sniff of winter weather here so far. It would be very unusual even for Ireland to finish the Winter on 28th February with an almost unbroken run of mild close to double figure temperatures with little or no frost, ice or snow.

Our Seasons usually even themselves out, it is looking very likely that the second half of this winter will be colder than what we've experienced so far.

I have this nasty feeling that 'winter' will once again run into March and possibly beyond.

I've had a look to see how mild my local area has been since December 1st. The coolest daytime temperature of the winter so far has been January 4th where temperatures reached 6C.

Only 6 days so far this winter have recorded a daytime temperature of less than 8C. The other 30 days of winter including today have recorded daytime temperatures of between 8C and 13C with most of them days reaching at least 10C.

The coldest night of the winter so far is 4th December where my local area reached 1C. I have yet to see a 0C this Winter, which is quite remarkable so no freezing has occurred in this area yet this winter. It could be another two weeks before the mercury finally dips to 0C.

For Dunsany,

1974-75 had no air frost between November 22nd and January 15th (inclusive).
2013-14 had no air frost between November 24th and January 10th (inclusive).
2015-16 had no air frost between November 24th and January 11th (inclusive).

These periods included air frost free Decembers since the station's records began (December 2018 was not air frost free as -0.5c was recorded on the 4th).

Here's the daily min temps for October to March of each one including 2018-19 so far at Dunsany.



Data comes from Met Éireann.

Gonzo

Abdullah Millions Cord wrote: »

Did you find Autumn had lower lows in your area?

This is where it gets interesting, just to show how mild our winter is so far.

The first cold night since the hot summer was all the way back on 31st August, where the overnight low reached 4C. That's colder than most of the nights this winter so far.

September 23rd reached only 3C that night and 25th of September reached 0C..... colder than any night this Winter so far and reached freezing. The nights of 28th and 29th September also both reached 2C, so September 2018 certainly had several nights colder than December 2018.

October 2018 had quite a few nights close to or below freezing! October 6th and 7th both reached 1C, October 14th and 15th reached 2C, 17th reached 1C, 18th dipped to 0C, October 28th and 29th both dipped to -3C and October 30th dipped to -4C. The 31st reached 1C. October is out on it's own for cold nights so far and that was only mid Autumn.

November 1st is the last properly cold night we've had, it reached 1C with a frost. Since 1st November its mostly been wet, mild and cloudy and the temperature hasn't dipped to 0C or below since October. Over the past 70 nights, the temperature has rarely dipped below 4C.

gabeeg

Apparently the magic mushroom season is still in full flow

If only I was 20 years younger

q85dw7osi4lebg

Gonzo wrote: »

This is where it gets interesting, just to show how mild our winter is so far.

The first cold night since the hot summer was all the way back on 31st August, where the overnight low reached 4C. That's colder than most of the nights this winter so far.

September 23rd reached only 3C that night and 25th of September reached 0C..... colder than any night this Winter so far and reached freezing. The nights of 28th and 29th September also both reached 2C, so September 2018 certainly had several nights colder than December 2018.

October 2018 had quite a few nights close to or below freezing! October 6th and 7th both reached 1C, October 14th and 15th reached 2C, 17th reached 1C, 18th dipped to 0C, October 28th and 29th both dipped to -3C and October 30th dipped to -4C. The 31st reached 1C. October is out on it's own for cold nights so far and that was only mid Autumn.

November 1st is the last properly cold night we've had, it reached 1C with a frost. Since 1st November its mostly been wet, mild and cloudy and the temperature hasn't dipped to 0C or below since October. Over the past 70 nights, the temperature has rarely dipped below 4C.

Interesting facts, thought as much. I had a vague memory of ice on my windscreen but it's been so long I wasn't sure if it was Autumn or last winter :pac:

sryanbruen

This was the view out my window on the morning of October 30th (when Dublin Airport recorded a minimum of -4.7c - smashed its previous October record low). Was quite unusual to see in October.

Mortelaro

Lovely sunny day in east wicklow,high of 9.2c
Cloudy now and 6.1c

Gonzo

GFS flipping back to a very cold outlook from January 20th.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS flipping back to a very cold outlook from January 20th.

Flip flop flippity flop

Tomorrow is Jan 10th - we need to start seeing some consistency in the models as regards the cold weather. But I guess we will need to have a lot more patience.

Liffey4A

Met office 10 day forecast and excellent explanation of the SSW
https://www.facebook.com/287501884208/posts/10156362570034209/

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

Flip flop flippity flop

Tomorrow is Jan 10th - we need to start seeing some consistency in the models as regards the cold weather. But I guess we will need to have a lot more patience.

I guess too many factors aside from the SSW event making predictions a nightmare to forecast and the models are clearly struggling on a daily basis.

Artane2002

Today and yesterday were nice here although it clouded over both days. I managed to take advantage of the nice weather this morning . It really is nice to have sunshine.

Rebelbrowser

Models looking colder each run imho. 12z ecm has a cold North westerly by day 10 and gfs shows real cold from 21 Jan onwards (first from North, then from east). Beginning to believe.....

rooney30

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Models looking colder each run imho. 12z ecm has a cold North westerly by day 10 and gfs shows real cold from 21 Jan onwards (first from North, then from east). Beginning to believe.....

Bring it !

gabeeg

It's incredibly quiet here. Far too quiet for what's being shown in the models.

Rebelbrowser

gabeeg wrote: »

It's incredibly quiet here. Far too quiet for what's being shown in the models.

Agreed! Thought there would be lots of posts this evening. I suppose people heeding the prudent advice not to get caught up in each and every model run but today's runs do seem to herald a significant change.

gabeeg

I don't see what's prudent about it.
Enjoy the ride. Feel the pain if/when it all falls to pieces.

For model watchers it rarely gets this good. We should be cheering on each run.
Instead we have this kind of hushed silence.

SeaBreezes

I'm from cork. While we had a snow fest last year so we cant complain in every model so far the cork snow shield is holding. I'll start making noise the moment it's broken I promise!! :-)


But loving the runs... reverent silence? Hopeful silence?

sdanseo

gabeeg wrote: »

It's incredibly quiet here. Far too quiet for what's being shown in the models.

gabeeg wrote: »

I don't see what's prudent about it.
Enjoy the ride. Feel the pain if/when it all falls to pieces.

For model watchers it rarely gets this good. We should be cheering on each run.
Instead we have this kind of hushed silence.

It's because the cold has been forecast now for so long. Some have become tired of waiting, others don't want to jinx it, and yet more are likely disillusioned with all the ups and downs and disagreement between those of us who have been contributing along the way.

It will explode like a snowcano if and when the forecasts become a little more certain.

gabeeg

You're dead right

KingdomRushed

I missed last nights runs so can’t comment on whether they were worth getting excited about. This mornings are the same as yesterday’s. No deep cold, no Atlantic blocking. Lots of cold north west zonal which will bring hill snow and frosts when winds abate.

Villain

Ya hard to get excited about a Northwesterly, the most annoying type of cooler weather for my location, just a poor tease!

The GEFS trend is still heading in the right direction in FI though.

sryanbruen

I love northwesterlies here because they tend to bring a lot of sunshine in Winter.

Kamili

sryanbruen wrote: »

I love northwesterlies here because they tend to bring a lot of sunshine in Winter.

I'm starting to think this cold ain't gonna happen, so I will happily go for a bitta sunshine instead.
its been dark and dreary with lots of overcast days for so long. I kinda miss the happy little fella's face when he has his hat on.

Billcarson

I'm happy that next week we see a change to cooler fresher weather . I would like to think it's the start of a change to something better by the end of the month.......... northwesterlies gradually turning into northeasterlies by the end of the month is the most likely imo

Mobhi1

The first rainfall of the year was recorded this morning. 1.4mm recorded since midnight. It's currently 7.6C.

John.Icy

This place is quiet because at the most general enthusiast level of model watching (ECM/GFS), the output is mediocre to poor still in terms of a proper snow/cold spell. It wasn't exciting yesterday either really.

The saving grace is the masses of cold building around us so despite the lack of blocking being shown, there's still times in FI where cold air spills over us and with that you have snow chances.

Transient NW'lys seem like a good shout for now in terms of where the first snow of the winter is going to come from. Nothing wrong with that but with some of these favourable drivers of cold weather floating about, there is obviously going to be a longing on here for something more.

Alot of time left for something noteworthy to develop either ways.

gabeeg

Lads, I'm talking about this.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thursday, 10 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

OUTLOOK ... Windy and generally a bit colder all through next week with winds mainly in a west to northwest direction, sometimes quite blustery, temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range most of the time, risk of some wintry showers on higher terrain. Beyond the weekend of 19th to 20th, it may turn even colder with winds from the north and sleety precipitation with a risk of accumulating snow at times. Details continue to vary from one model to another but there is certainly a growing trend towards much colder weather in the last ten days of January. How severe and how long it might last remain the big unknowns.

I'm excited. I'd hazard a guess that most of you are too, and you're all just scared of jinxing it

munsterlegend

Snow in Ireland is never straightforward with a lot of variables having to work in our favour for any low level snow. The worst scenario is that this cold air reaches the UK and we are left watching in envy which is very possible. I have no interest in transient snow from the north west which is gone in a few hours.

The UK met office are bullish about it getting colder but seem to have refined any snow potential yesterday to more the north of the UK which is not good for us in my view. Hopefully by the start of February the colder air will have filtered far enough west.

Kamili

gabeeg wrote: »

Lads, I'm talking about this.



I'm excited. I'd hazard a guess that most of you are too, and you're all just scared of jinxing it

Theres nothing there really to say a large snow event though, just that its getting colder...

Sit tight and see what happens.

YanSno

It's too early to write off this winter. I remember the ssw we had in January 2009 it was a very long winter and we had cold weather on and off until late march. That's when i started to have interest in global weather cycles am not saying it will be like 2009 winter but signals are there for that type of climate, on and off westerly / North westerly with occasional Easterly depending if the LP tracks south