Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

joeysoap

sdanseo wrote: »

Shower of muppets. About the same level of accuracy as the famous forecasting stone.

Was in San Fran a few weeks ago. Accuweather showing 16km visability and no precip for 120 mins.

It was raining and you couldn’t see more than 100m. ( you couldn’t see the Golden Gate Bridge from the Alcatraz ferry.) I checked a few times. Wrong every time. (FWIW it was beautiful after that day)

Unaccuweather more like.

force eleven

pad199207 wrote: »

Yes at this stage there’s no point in trying to dress it up. It’s typical January winter fare as we see out the month. Wintry showers in on a PM airmass with sleet and wet snow to hills in the north and NW.
Strongly agree with YanSno about AO and NAO

This is what it looks like after latest GFS. And after the rubbish blandness we've had for weeks, at least it will be a tad more interesting. But no severe or deep cold it looks like, at least for this month.

BLIZZARD7

force eleven wrote: »

This is what it looks like after latest GFS. And after the rubbish blandness we've had for weeks, at least it will be a tad more interesting. But no severe or deep cold it looks like, at least for this month.

The models are all over the place for next week, never mind the later part of Jan- first slider low still needs to be resolved, then look towards Scandi/Svalbard for height rises later on (25th onwards) I wouldn't bet on no deep cold before months end yet.

Graces7

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

My wife lit a fire today for the sake of it.

It was around 12c!!!

Very mild in Limerick.

Not lit a fire for days but will need to today,, west mayo offshore

KingdomRushed

Model output has been deteriorating in terms of very cold solutions from 20th in the operationals over the last 2 days. Very messy stuff, and disappointing. GFS and GFS para are showing more northwesterly polar maritime than clean northerlies or northeast sourced cold. I haven’t had a chance to look at ensembles yet this morning but usually if the op is consistent with a downgrade they start to follow. ECM wasn’t great last night. New one rolling out now

BLIZZARD7

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Model output has been deteriorating in terms of very cold solutions from 20th in the operationals over the last 2 days. Very messy stuff, and disappointing. GFS and GFS para are showing more northwesterly polar maritime than clean northerlies or northeast sourced cold. I haven’t had a chance to look at ensembles yet this morning but usually if the op is consistent with a downgrade they start to follow. ECM wasn’t great last night. New one rolling out now

UKMO/GEM and ECM are all better than the GFS output and are showing quite a different scenario at days 5/6- this isn't resolved at all yet.

KingdomRushed

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

UKMO/GEM and ECM are all better than the GFS output and are showing quite a different scenario at days 5/6- this isn't resolved at all yet.

I don’t think either ECM or UKMO are showing much in line of snow though? We are looking at month end this morning whereas last Friday’s output across all models was showing snow potential from approx Jan 21st. Just saying what I see. A fired up jet is always bad news for cold here

sryanbruen

KingdomRushed wrote: »

I don’t think either ECM or UKMO are showing much in line of snow though? We are looking at month end this morning whereas last Friday’s output across all models was showing snow potential from approx Jan 21st. Just saying what I see. A fired up jet is always bad news for cold here

Rome wasn’t built in a day, get the cold in first before thinking about snow.

titan18

Need some bloody cold weather soon. These temperatures in January are killing me.

Lucreto

titan18 wrote: »

Need some bloody cold weather soon. These temperatures in January are killing me.

I know how you feel. It feels like a dangling carrot situation. The cold is always 2 weeks away, no matter how much we move forward it's always out of reach.

The cold will probably get to us in May or June when it's not wanted.

esposito

I think talk about the jet being fired up is a bit premature. Of course if it does happen, it might not necessarily lead to overly mild conditions, could well be polar maritime air which obviously isn’t as good as polar continental but it’s better than mild SW’s anyday. Plenty to be resolved yet.

munsterlegend

At least we’ll be loaded for the summer holidays with all the the saved heating costs! Even if it doesn’tget too cold at least the weather will be a bit more interesting in the coming weeks.

Graces7

Very still and silent out here but darkening skies now. Birds are going song-crazy..Ominous... west mayo offshore

munsterlegend

Graces7 wrote: »

Very still and silent out here but darkening skies now. Birds are going song-crazy..Ominous... west mayo offshore

Have to love the dramatic language! I think film scripts could be your thing grace

q85dw7osi4lebg

A chill in the air this morning.

Neddyusa

Lucreto wrote: »

titan18 wrote: »

Need some bloody cold weather soon. These temperatures in January are killing me.

I know how you feel. It feels like a dangling carrot situation. The cold is always 2 weeks away, no matter how much we move forward it's always out of reach.

The cold will probably get to us in May or June when it's not wanted.

That's the trend alright.
Some here are excellent at following the NWP model trends.
Sometimes just following the mood trends on a thread like this will tell you just as much about the upcoming weather.
And this year it was originally cold coming after Christmas, then early January, then mid January, now February is the target.
So from past experience I'd say you're pretty acurate with that outlook Lucreto!

Rebelbrowser

Neddyusa wrote: »

That's the trend alright.
Some here are excellent at following the NWP model trends.
Sometimes just following the mood trends on a thread like this will tell you just as much about the upcoming weather.
And this year it was originally cold coming after Christmas, then early January, then mid January, now February is the target.
So from past experience I'd say you're pretty acurate with that outlook Lucreto!

Yoy are trying to beat the odds looking for decent snow in Ireland. Typically we see snow lying for more than a day every 5 years or so. Most years we get a few coverings that last a few hours. This year there is a good chance of the latter in the next fortnight. There is also I would say a 50% chance of the former in February (that's a gut sense only btw). I will take that any year.

Mortelaro

Neddyusa wrote: »

That's the trend alright.
Some here are excellent at following the NWP model trends.
Sometimes just following the mood trends on a thread like this will tell you just as much about the upcoming weather.
And this year it was originally cold coming after Christmas, then early January, then mid January, now February is the target.
So from past experience I'd say you're pretty acurate with that outlook Lucreto!

I think though to be fair,what regular model watchers have been doing since Xmas is watching the strat warming and waiting for its effects(together with other global atmospherics watched already)
The time table for that has always been last week in January and on into February
That has not changed at all at all
The expectation at the start was that increasingly cold options would appear in output (they have) reacting slowly to the new news but FI caveats applying, how mad they'd become and whether versions of them would get into sub 120 output
There was always the expectation I think that en route to wherever this was going we,'d vary from the bland to the extreme

diceyd

Open for business?

Gonzo

poor enough ensemble run for Dunshaughlin this morning, with once again a wide variation of outcomes after 21st of January, still some cold members but more mild ones than yesterday.

Dickie10

unbelievable weather for January, its so easy to live with this non messy winter weather. I really love dry weather everything is easier, feels like april. would we be in trouble with water supplies if we don't get rain before may?

KingdomRushed

GFS 6z continues with a familiar theme, very pronounced jet stream diving through ireland right into the FI time-frame eroding any significant chance of snow. The downgrades continue. A very depressing run.

KingdomRushed

Dickie10 wrote: »

unbelievable weather for January, its so easy to live with this non messy winter weather. I really love dry weather everything is easier, feels like april. would we be in trouble with water supplies if we don't get rain before may?

No shortage of rain on the way

Mortelaro

Gonzo wrote: »

poor enough ensemble run for Dunshaughlin this morning, with once again a wide variation of outcomes after 21st of January, still some cold members but more mild ones than yesterday.

GFS ensembles?
I wouldn't be too worried about their FI output,scorching or freezing

Graces7

Dickie10 wrote: »

unbelievable weather for January, its so easy to live with this non messy winter weather. I really love dry weather everything is easier, feels like april. would we be in trouble with water supplies if we don't get rain before may?

Agree; totally wonderful and easy on us. Pottering about outside with no coat.... even sitting out..Loving it.

Graces7

munsterlegend wrote: »

Have to love the dramatic language! I think film scripts could be your thing grace

do they pay well? lol... Need money! no viable car any more!

sryanbruen

Notice how the colder than average 850hPa temperature anomalies retain themselves on the GEFS over the UK and Ireland regardless of what is happening over in the US, yes the air is mainly polar maritime sourced.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1084457544238559235

KingdomRushed

Mortelaro wrote: »

GFS ensembles?
I wouldn't be too worried about their FI output,scorching or freezing

Crucially ECM ensembles are also relaxing on any exceptional cold. There are still hard cold options in both suites, and by hard cold I mean snow and ice and day temperatures near freezing or below. Friday just gone was pretty much the peak in model output for cold options on way from around January 21st, with spectacular ensembles appearing and a number of incredibly cold operational runs. Since then the pendulum has begun to swing toward rather messy crap for our side of the world.

For me, I have to say I’m quite disappointed. I think the SSW effects are now in play and the models are getting a slow handle on what they mean for the troposphere albeit still with a lot of uncertainty the probability is swinging toward deep low pressure systems bringing colder polar maritime air than we’ve seen for a while but true hard cold not likely, ie deep northerlies and extended arctic troughs or north easterlies. Early February may bring better solutions. Winter is not over but the clock is ticking.

novarock

Sorry lads, I jinxed it... delivery expected the 25th...

munsterlegend

novarock wrote: »

Sorry lads, I jinxed it... delivery expected the 25th...


No all my fault. Mentioned it to my family members after the morning runs yesterday that snow was on the way next week.