Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

esposito

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Since then the pendulum has begun to swing toward rather messy crap for our side of the world.
.

Who’s to say the pendulum won’t swing back towards deep cold.

I know I can’t talk as i’ve been a bit negative recently but I’ll remind you our Beast from the East did not happen until Feb 27th last year. So still plenty of time.

giveitholly

If real cold hits the east coast of America will that only stir up the Atlantic and send weather systems barrelling into us?

esposito

giveitholly wrote: »

If real cold hits the east coast of America will that only stir up the Atlantic and send weather systems barrelling into us?

It has happened many times in the past but it is not a certainty.

KingdomRushed

esposito wrote: »

Who’s to say the pendulum won’t swing back towards deep cold.

I know I can’t talk as i’ve been a bit negative recently but I’ll remind you our Beast from the East did not happen until Feb 27th last year. So still plenty of time.

I know it potentially can, but the output shown today for say Jan 22nd is far more likely than the output which was showing for the same date 3 days ago. As we approach the hinge-point of a major pattern change the models should now be picking up what that will mean better and sadly they are beginning to sniff out a powerful jet stream overriding any tendency for high altitude blocking in this part of world despite major displacement of vortex sections

ninebeanrows

The extended EC forecast is issued tonight.

Would be a disappointment to see it fall back from its strong signal for cold weather and high latitude blocking.

However the last 48 hours hasn’t filled me with confidence.

Will be interesting to see what it delivers.

igCorcaigh

Are we there yet?

sryanbruen

GEFS have suddenly pointed towards -NAO for the end of January now with more than 80% showing at least -0.01 sigma. Indicative of the Greenland blocking they’ve been showing near the end of the fourth week of January onwards. Let’s see this being a consistent signal rather than just a present observation. This is based on the ensemble mean - there is good differences between the individual members with a huge spread to the south of Greenland.

The rollercoaster goes on. The outlook is still not any clearer.

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

I know I can’t talk as i’ve been a bit negative recently but I’ll remind you our Beast from the East did not happen until Feb 27th last year. So still plenty of time.

the event last year was exceptional, but I still reckon even February 27th is verging on late. We scored a direct hit with great depth of cold and huge falls of snow so considering that it was running into March, this direct hit of cold and high precipitation lead to a perfect storm. If the same event was not a direct hit, we may not have fared so well.

If this had happened a few weeks earlier, the freeze would have been much more severe and we would not have had the dripping sounds during daylight.

We still have about 4 to 5 weeks of prime time winter left, so fingers crossed that we get what we're all desperately looking for by mid February at the very latest.

Sycamore Tree

I think this Phoney War period is driving people (including myself) a bit nutty.

Jaysus at this point we are badly in need of a few hailstones or some wet sleet.

endainoz

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

SleetAndSnow

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

yeah its hard for a farmer but as has been said a lot, this is a weather forum. You are going to find that the majority of people in this forum like extreme weather events to analyze them and just look at them in general, and if there is a chance of snow and ice then hope just jumps!

Mortelaro

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

In here those considerations are way outweighed by the excitement of extreme weather,especially snow and thunder etc
Its a minority excitement
Although everyone does get excited about extremes,it wanes quickly when it becomes a nuisance or affects livelihood etc
In here it doesn't wane,it's a place where enthusiasts come to compare share and hope with weather charts

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1084858682834411521

Igotadose

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

not wanting frost, but damn there are way too many flying insects still around. We need some sustained cold to reduce their numbers.

Gonzo

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

many people here have a great interest in the extremes of weather that rarely effect Ireland.

Our climate generally has a relatively small difference with temperature and
precipitation between Summer and Winter compared to most other places such as North America, much of Europe and Asia. Our proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and the North Atlantic Drift keeps us in similar weather types throughout the year.

This is why many people here wish for extremes, particularly during Summer and Winter. The most popular weather scenarios wished for here include:

- Easterly based severe cold outbreaks with snow storms preferably end of November - mid February.
- Deep easterly based prolonged snow showers with thunderstorm activity - thundersnow.
- Deep cold high pressures in winter with severe frost or freezing fog and sunshine by day.
- some like Atlantic based extremely stormy conditions with huge rainfall totals and very high or extreme winds.
- Hot, dry and sunny conditions in the summer, preferably end of May to beginning of September, the higher the temperatures the better.
- Hot and thundery conditions, fork lightning, hailstones, an extremely rare weather event, some parts of Ireland hasn't experienced this since 1985.

Temperature wise Ireland is mostly in the 8 to 18C range throughout the year during daylight hours. Only sometimes does most of Ireland get above 18C in the Summer and under 8C in the winter.

Defaulter1831

Gonzo wrote: »

many people here have a great interest in the extremes of weather that rarely effect Ireland.

Our climate generally has a relatively small difference with temperature and
precipitation between Summer and Winter compared to most other places such as North America, much of Europe and Asia. Our proximity to the Atlantic Ocean and the North Atlantic Drift keeps us in similar weather types throughout the year.

This is why many people here wish for extremes, particularly during Summer and Winter. The most popular weather scenarios wished for here include:

- Easterly based severe cold outbreaks with snow storms preferably end of November - mid February.
- Deep easterly based prolonged snow showers with thunderstorm activity - thundersnow.
- Deep cold high pressures in winter with severe frost or freezing fog and sunshine by day.
- some like Atlantic based extremely stormy conditions with huge rainfall totals and very high or extreme winds.
- Hot, dry and sunny conditions in the summer, preferably end of May to beginning of September, the higher the temperatures the better.
- Hot and thundery conditions, fork lightning, hailstones, an extremely rare weather event, some parts of Ireland hasn't experienced this since 1985.

Temperature wise Ireland is mostly in the 8 to 18C range throughout the year during daylight hours. Only sometimes does most of Ireland get above 18C in the Summer and under 8C in the winter.

The average summer daytime temperature is 17/18C to 20/21C.

And most winters the daily average is 6-9C.

Mortelaro

Gonzo,you forgot hot hail,earthquakes and volcanoes...
If we could get three rock to erupt,we'd be in with a chance for all three

Franz Von Peppercorn

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

The average summer daytime temperature is 17/18C to 20/21C.

And most winters the daily average is 6-9C.

That’s pretty much what he said.

Franz Von Peppercorn

anyway if the snow is off I have to sell sh1t loads of bread. Pm if interested.

Defaulter1831

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

That’s pretty much what he said.

He said only sometimes is most of the country over 18C in summer. I wouldn't agree. Most of the country is over 18C most days in July and August, a fair bit of June and September too. I'd up that a notch and say only some days is most of the country over 20C in summer.

wakka12

endainoz wrote: »

This is probably a silly question, but why are people here so hopeful of a massive drop in temperature and ice/snow etc?

From my point of view as a farmer, I could certainly do without frost, the growth rates at the moment are fantastic. Solid green grass is unheard of this time of year. A heavy frost would make light work of any growth at this point!

Because snow coats the landscape in a beautiful white coat, I think its one of the most beautiful things Ive ever seen

Muckka

I have a feeling that we'll have a 1963 event this late winter early spring.

North Westerlies and Eastern wind's will be battling it out, they'll both produce sleet and snow.
Hopefully the road's will be managed ok as it'll be bleak.
If our road's are gritted and there's a good plan to keep the show on the road the country will be ok.
A few places won't get it as bad.
More than likely, the Kerry, Clare and Cork peninsulas will be slushy.
But from Galway upwards on the western seaboard and from Waterford upward s on the east coast it'll be one to remember.

Intermittent snowy weather will hit the east coast until April.
It'll be like similar weather we had in the 80's

We'll have those early season brown,grey afternoon s and evening's.
The cloud's will be racing across the country, looking up you'll see them whipping by

Can't wait....

Layman's weather prediction....

sryanbruen

A very passable day in Dublin with patches of blue sky and mostly cloudy though the cloud tended to be light than dark.

nacho libre

I think we won't see proper Greenland blocking, the downwelling so far has not really past 100hpa. Instead we will just see wedges of heights attempting to go north but be surpressed by a lobe of vortex in the wrong place

However we might see a scandi high develop later on, which might further on lead to more stratospheric disturbance as a consequence, if this happens it would ensure the vortex does not recover very much.

I hopefully will have to eat my words about a Greenland block not developing going into the last week of January/ first week of February, because relying on a scandi high is a risky business- you always want to see a Greenland block to increase the chances of sustained cold.

Mortelaro

nacho libre wrote: »

I think we won't see proper Greenland blocking, the downwelling so far has not really past 100hpa. Instead we will just see wedges of heights attempting to go north but be surpressed by a lobe of vortex in the wrong place

I hopefully will have to eat my words about a Greenland block not developing going into the last week of January/ first week of February, because relying on a scandi high is a risky business- you always want to see a Greenland block to increase the chances of sustained cold.

Ya sure??

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1084857355416805376?s=19

And of course,hard to beat a bit of speculation from a UK met office media man given the type of people he hangs round with all day every day..

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1084863001348448256?s=19

SleetAndSnow

Temp currently hovering around 7 degrees here in Cork City. One of the coldest its been in a while

MidMan25

Currently a massive snowstorm forecast for NY next weekend. Flying there next Tuesday so will hopefully not have my flight impacted but should get my snow fix when I land, before that highs of -19 and lows of -25 for Western Canada

gabeeg

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1084906403381301248?s=19

nacho libre

Mortelaro wrote: »

Ya sure??

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1084857355416805376?s=19

And of course,hard to beat a bit of speculation from a UK met office media man given the type of people he hangs round with all day every day..

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1084863001348448256?s=19

Haha. Well as I was informed via pm, when i go into negative mode good things tend to happen, so hopefully that trend continues!

Franz Von Peppercorn

Not selling my bread.