Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

United road

Mortelaro wrote: »

I also think the bread jokes are gone stale!


Fair play, that one, now that one i had NOT read in here before :-)

Liffey4A

Excellent explanation from the metoffice of the difficulties in forecasting snow and shows the GFS and EC predictions.

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/2278865789021199/

Graces7

wind is rising; things are a-flying outside so time to venture out and gather ...west mayo offshore paradise

yep

"Southwest winds veering West to Northwest tonight will reach force 6 or more on all Irish coasts.

West to Northwest winds will reach force 6 or more at times tomorrow on all Irish Sea coasts." met.ie

Gonzo

a bit damp here today, but still mild at 9C. Probably the last properly mild day for quite some time unless the GFS has it's way.

Temperatures more in the mid single digit range for the foreseeable future.

sryanbruen

Nice sunny spells in Dublin today. Mostly cloudy evening now.

Captain Snow

Cold tomorrow with some wintery showers.

Gaoth Laidir

Mortelaro wrote: »

Hmmmm...Who would I listen to,the soon to be retired poorly maintained GFS during a government shut down OR everyone else including a myriad of professional met organisations ,their employees,their anomaly charts and their unchanging published outlooks?
God it's a tough choice isn't it

I also think the bread jokes are gone stale!
Something new
Every time I hear a bread pun now ,you'd swear it hadn't been done before
Its old Sigh!
There I've said it

Amazing that the "once-great" GFS, which has always been the go-to model of choice for cold-lovers, is now being cast aside because a new version is out. This is still the same model that people have always put their house on and of which any criticism from my side was always met with resistance. Great when it shows cold, not so if it shows mild.

pistolpetes11

Usually when I hear the dreaded word " Shannon entropy " I prepare for the worst ( Which for my preferences is dreadful ) prolongs the agony does Shannon , just dump me and let me move on :)

I am slight bit more optimistic with the output from the European model but I would not be shocked if it played out how Shannon wants it

Gaoth Laidir

sryanbruen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/snowbiewx/status/1085173663991844864?s=21

Just to point out that a negative NAO is not a guarantee of anything cold. The high looks like it will build alright, but south of Iceland, so while it does raise pressure there, its position doesn't guarantee a cold airstream that it would if it was located further north.

Mortelaro

Latest press release from the UK met office contains the following paragraph which ye might find interesting?
Certainly not ruling anything out?

Looking further ahead, Chief Meteorologist Dan Suri said; “Next week’s forecast shows signs of a reduction in winds from our typical westerly direction, meaning we are more likely to see cold winds from northerly and easterly directions later in the week. This does not guarantee a repeat of “Beast from the East” conditions as some media are speculating – yes, it is getting colder, but it is too early to provide detailed forecasts on the potential severity of the weather or snow amounts at this stage.

Mortelaro

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Amazing that the "once-great" GFS, which has always been the go-to model of choice for cold-lovers, is now being cast aside because a new version is out. This is still the same model that people have always put their house on and of which any criticism from my side was always met with resistance. Great when it shows cold, not so if it shows mild.

Well I've always been a fan of the ECM tbh but my skill set wouldn't touch that of a Glasnevin or Bracknell forecaster who probably use them all in a blend or intuitively go for one over the other
That's a skill picked up when it's their job all day every day listening to their peers opinions and their own

Gonzo

GFS starting to change it's tune yet again, dropping the mobile Atlantic theme and bringing possibly high pressure later next week and tries to get an easterly going into the final days of January.

Certainly one of the colder GFS runs we've had this year, so that's all the GFS runs we've look at over the past week in the bin.

No doubt the next GFS run will probably show a completely different setup.

Mortelaro

Meanwhile it's nice to see the latest ECM bring the cold solutions a whole 48 hrs closer isnt it,here's day 8

Marengo

ECM much more consistent than the GFS. Nice easterly appearing day 8 on. Shaping up very nicely

SleetAndSnow

o.O

gabeeg

sryanbruen

It takes one ECM run to turn this place into a nuthouse, like seriously.

gabeeg

sryanbruen wrote: »

It takes one ECM run to turn this place into a nuthouse, like seriously.

There'll be memes along soon

Are you ready?

Mortelaro

sryanbruen wrote: »

It takes one ECM run to turn this place into a nuthouse, like seriously.

Aye 12 z often waters down in a 00z
From an imby perspective, that appears to be slightly north easterly
Throw a few sliders into the mix heading south of Ireland,fronts over Ireland a few days into that kind of flow and do you know what you'd have a lot of?
Does it rhyme with slow

Gonzo

Snow is almost a certainty at some point next week, could provide a covering in places. Frontal Snow or Snow showers from the east a definite possibility as well as some very severe night time frosts.

This is no December 2010 or Beast From the East just yet, but next week won't be kind on the heating bills. A few places may even see flakes as early as this weekend.

Snowbiee21

Gonzo wrote: »

Snow is almost a certainty at some point next week, could provide a covering in places. Frontal Snow or Snow showers from the east a definite possibility as well as some very severe night time frosts.

This is no December 2010 or Beast From the East just yet, but next week won't be kind on the heating bills. A few places may even see flakes as early as this weekend.

Something must of caught your eye in the latest guidance gonzo, since you wore hinting at lots of milder interludes ❄️

Billcarson

sryanbruen wrote: »

It takes one ECM run to turn this place into a nuthouse, like seriously.

In fairness though does it not tie in with what has been anticipated (response to the ssw) for near the end of this month? So perhaps it really is onto something.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/corkcitycouncil/status/1085255479457124352

Ooh thats going to be weird hearing Wind (except i cant actually see the warning on the met website?)

YanSno

1025hp too close to Ireland it will produce very little to none in regards to streamers in the irish sea, of course this will all change in the next run. I have been keeping a close eye on NAO / AO they have been signalling towards a blocking.

Gonzo

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Something must of caught your eye in the latest guidance gonzo, since you wore hinting at lots of milder interludes ❄️

The GFS would be the main cause of that, all those mild sets of runs certainly caused alot of frustration, confusion, second guessing and silences over the past few days for many people. The GFS is a very important model, but it isn't always right and the past few days has really shown it to be on it's own more and more.

This past week has certainly been a rocky roller coaster, time to buckle up and get used to it, i'm sure we have more of this to come over the next few weeks.

ninebeanrows

Good trends from tonights EC, backing last nights... if it was to come to pass, it may take a while before we get a real blast of powder snow, but it would herald an extended period of cold weather, probably lasting over a month.

irishrover99

sryanbruen wrote: »

It takes one ECM run to turn this place into a nuthouse, like seriously.

😀😀😀

Pops_20

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Ooh thats going to be weird hearing Wind (except i cant actually see the warning on the met website?)

The warning is there on archive.met.ie.
They must be in the process of updating the warning.

Ultimate Seduction

TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AS IRELAND GOES INTO A DEEP FREEZE FOR UP TO ONE MONTH! FREQUENT SNOW COVERINGS SET TO START AS SOON AS THIS WEEKEND!

Thats what I get from the last few pages on this thread.

Rebelbrowser

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Amazing that the "once-great" GFS, which has always been the go-to model of choice for cold-lovers, is now being cast aside because a new version is out. This is still the same model that people have always put their house on and of which any criticism from my side was always met with resistance. Great when it shows cold, not so if it shows mild.

Don't think thats right GL. It's a frequent refrain on here that if the GFS was correct in how often it predicts snow in Ireland (when it actually falls as rain) we would have 10+ countrywide snow events a year. It's a model of choice to show because it comes out every 6 hours, makes so much of its data available and, yes, is good for a chart showing snow to post when the FI thread would otherwise be a desert. But in fairness I don't think too many of us (any of us?) ever say anything to the effect that you should put your house on the GFS.