Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

kod87

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AS IRELAND GOES INTO A DEEP FREEZE FOR UP TO ONE MONTH! FREQUENT SNOW COVERINGS SET TO START AS SOON AS THIS WEEKEND!

Thats what I get from the last few pages on this thread.

Do you work for a tabloid newspaper by any chance?

Gonzo

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AS IRELAND GOES INTO A DEEP FREEZE FOR UP TO ONE MONTH! FREQUENT SNOW COVERINGS SET TO START AS SOON AS THIS WEEKEND!

Thats what I get from the last few pages on this thread.

unlikely to be snow coverings this weekend at low levels. There may be snow flakes especially over high ground, but probably too mild for lying snow.

Next week there is a chance of some lying snow but nothing very substantial so far, maybe dustings/slight coverings. Precipitation potential, temperature, dew points, wind direction and high/low pressure influences will all play a role in how much or how little snow there will be next week.

We should know more about next week's snow potential the closer we get to next Monday/Tuesday.

Temperatures will be cold but no deep freeze as of yet. But, it is getting alot colder than anything we've seen so far this winter.

esposito

BBC outlook @ 21:55: A case of ‘Watch this space’

Plenty of uncertainty. Darren Bett even mentioned the GFS American model and how it differs considerably to the ECM.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Amazing that the "once-great" GFS, which has always been the go-to model of choice for cold-lovers, is now being cast aside because a new version is out. This is still the same model that people have always put their house on and of which any criticism from my side was always met with resistance. Great when it shows cold, not so if it shows mild.

Has GFS really always been so loved, or was it merely just the only widely available long range model? I've always gotten the impression it's used so much because of that.

Villain

MJohnston wrote: »

Has GFS really always been so loved, or was it merely just the only widely available long range model? I've always gotten the impression it's used so much because of that.

Most cold lovers love whatever shows the cold tbh. However I think most that follow charts would know that ECMWF in recent years has been more reliable.

As someone else mentioned if we got snow every time GFS showed it we’d probably be sick of it by now

Mortelaro

esposito wrote: »

BBC outlook @ 21:55: A case of ‘Watch this space’

Plenty of uncertainty. Darren Bett even mentioned the GFS American model and how it differs considerably to the ECM.

On that note,Crucially, Matt Hugo,a stalwart of meteogroup who provide Darren and the BBC with their weather service favours the GFS option which would have us under a high with mild Atlantic air toppling over the high
You could well see the ECM overnight backtrack towards that solution
The key is the strong storm over the eastern U.S
I'm minded a bit towards that outcome myself given logic dictates that storm will push high formation down towards us and keep the Atlantic alive
No charts in front of me atm but iirc the key difference is the ECM twice has wanted to send that U.S storm inland and not out into the Atlantic

esposito

Mortelaro wrote: »

On that note,Crucially, Matt Hugo,a stalwart of meteogroup who provide Darren and the BBC with their weather service favours the GFS option which would have us under a high with mild Atlantic air toppling over the high
You could well see the ECM overnight backtrack towards that solution
The key is the strong storm over the eastern U.S
I'm minded a bit towards that outcome myself given logic dictates that storm will push high formation down towards us and keep the Atlantic alive
No charts in front of me atm but iirc the key difference is the ECM twice has wanted to send that U.S storm inland and not out into the Atlantic

Isn’t it such a pity that a storm in the eastern US over 5,000 km away can dictate our chances of getting significant cold here. C’est la vie I guess.

ZX7R

Villain wrote: »

Most cold lovers love whatever shows the cold tbh. However I think most that follow charts would know that ECMWF in recent years has been more reliable.

As someone else mentioned if we got snow every time GFS showed it we’d probably be sick of it by now

I remember a time when the ECM was though to be cold biased

Gaoth Laidir

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Don't think thats right GL. It's a frequent refrain on here that if the GFS was correct in how often it predicts snow in Ireland (when it actually falls as rain) we would have 10+ countrywide snow events a year. It's a model of choice to show because it comes out every 6 hours, makes so much of its data available and, yes, is good for a chart showing snow to post when the FI thread would otherwise be a desert. But in fairness I don't think too many of us (any of us?) ever say anything to the effect that you should put your house on the GFS.

It's the one model that has generated the frenzied antics that go on here (and on many a weather forum) every winter due to its ridiculous output that, as you say, rarely verifies. Yet, I've ended up in many's a discussion when I happen to state the obvious. It's the same with storms and hurricanes. I've called it a nonsense model because it is a nonsense model, and just because it updates twice as often as the ECM it doesn't mean it should be posted willy nilly. It just means twice the amount of ****e clogging up t'internet forums.

I hope and think the new upgrade will take care of a lot of that, if it ever gets off the ground. Still not near the resolution of the king of them all, the ECM, but hopefully it will be right at least some of the time.

gabeeg

That's a ramp

sdanseo

gabeeg wrote: »

That's a ramp

In this exact context, by accident, yes. GL is not a known ramper and usually the calm collected voice of realism among all the ramping, even if we don't want to hear it and secretly curse him hoping he's wrong

gabeeg

I'm taking it

Meteorite58

First time hearing loud rain on the roof in quite a while here near Tralee, wind is up too.

9.2C as the front arrives, Bar dropped a lot today from 1022.4 hPa to 1006.0hPa atm.


EDIT at 00.01 : Temp dropped 2.2C to 7.0C since this post.

pad199207

Certainly now looking very interesting. Finding it very hard to stay on the fence now!

Donegal Storm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

First time hearing loud rain on the roof in quite a while here near Tralee, wind is up too.

Same here in Letterkenny, a sudden burst of very heavy rain, strange times when I'm getting off the couch to look out the window at rain in mid January!

First bit of actual weather we've had in god knows how long

Kutebride

Rain. Meath.

nacho libre

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's the one model that has generated the frenzied antics that go on here (and on many a weather forum) every winter due to its ridiculous output that, as you say, rarely verifies. Yet, I've ended up in many's a discussion when I happen to state the obvious. It's the same with storms and hurricanes. I've called it a nonsense model because it is a nonsense model, and just because it updates twice as often as the ECM it doesn't mean it should be posted willy nilly. It just means twice the amount of ****e clogging up t'internet forums.

I hope and think the new upgrade will take care of a lot of that, if it ever gets off the ground. Still not near the resolution of the king of them all, the ECM, but hopefully it will be right at least some of the time.

The funny thing is i have a hunch the GFS will be proved right over the ECM this time.
I'm sure you'll be the first to admit it if the GFS proves to be correct this time

Larbre34

At 3am, the Met É app is showing 8C and a 'light snow showers' icon for Dublin!

An error of course, but perhaps they're just testing the icons for a weeks time!

Graces7

What a wind.... as they forecast of course. Hard rain against the window and opening the door is a dangerous pursuit.

AND IT IS SO COLD!

All wrapped up like a strange parcel.

That weather map of met.ie is a fearsome sight.

Big cats are out when I need them as furry hot water bottles...

COLD!

KingdomRushed

The model output this morning is the worst in days for those seeking cold. Across the board. Only ECM left to salvage sonething but I would be very surprised if it folds. No cold in GFS ensembles

Graces7

Forecast for Connaught on met.ie

"Today will be cold. Showers will become frequent and will turn wintry over hills and mountains, with a risk of thunder from heavy showers through the afternoon. Temperatures will be just 4 or 5 degrees at best and it will feel noticeably cooler in a freshening northwest wind later in the day."

shiver me timbers!

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

In fairness though does it not tie in with what has been anticipated (response to the ssw) for near the end of this month? So perhaps it really is onto something.

You were saying.

And no is the answer. The SSW has still yet to propagate to the troposphere. This is a nSSW so far by the looks of things.

RobertKK

From met.ie

The freshening southerly winds will become strong southeasterly on Thursday night ahead of rain developing in the west. Temperatures will be below freezing in places and the rain will be preceded for a time by a fall of snow as it spreads eastwards across the country.

SleetAndSnow

Wet and colder in cork city this morning. Big difference then the last few weeks!

Snowbiee21

Why is everyone so downbeat over a few model runs back tracking . We have seen this so many times already, they can swing back for the better or maybe fizzle out but I’ll give it until the 12z , maybe a swing back is imminent

Sycamore Tree

Frost on the car this morning. First in ages. Great to see some cold finally. I hope the hills get some snow next.

icesnowfrost

Calm down everyone. One run doesn’t mean anything is over or delayed. The models are all over the place from run to run but one thing is constant, there is a cold theme over all and after the models get a grip of things over the next few days all will become clear.
I think next week we’ll have some snow on hills and mountains for sure and that’s a start. That’s going by the messy runs anyway but they are all over the place so as the week goes on they should start to show more accurate results

Graces7

We have WHITE STUFF after a loud deluge!

All along the side of the dwelling and along the drive... too much cloud to see the mountains...

First snow to West Mayo offshore island!

Lucreto

IT'S ALL OVER PEOPLE, WE DON'T HAVE A PRAYER!

(Wish I knew how to post gifs)

As I said a couple of days ago it's a dangling carrot situation. The cold is always 2 weeks away. I think it's worse this year after last year's snow. It was expected to be cold on long range forecasts, the early frost in October kind of re-enforce that feeling and the really low sunspot activity last year had some expecting snowy dividends this winter.

To me it reminds me of Winter 2011. After 2010 there was an expectation but the winter was mild overall.

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

We have WHITE STUFF after a loud deluge!

All along the side of the dwelling and along the drive... too much cloud to see the mountains...

First snow to West Mayo offshore island!

Just been out and the heights are clear. An intense shower at low level and bitter cold now. A scattering only and staying.