Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Villain

YanSno wrote: »

Gfs / Ecm 12z will more than likely be fairly similar to this morning runs. Looking at NAO most members going positive till the end of the month so potential for a blocking has diminished

UKMO 144 is a little interesting!

NAO has been up and down like mad near the end of the forecast so wouldn’t be calling that either way yet.

pad199207

Villain wrote: »

UKMO 144 is a little interesting!

NAO has been up and down like mad near the end of the forecast so wouldn’t be calling that either way yet.

Yes, impossible to call now at this stage.

This theme of downgrades ovnernight and upgrades in the afternoons seems to be gaining momentum.

Snowbiee21

Villain wrote: »

UKMO 144 is a little interesting!

NAO has been up and down like mad near the end of the forecast so wouldn’t be calling that either way yet.

Yep , great start to the 12zs

q85dw7osi4lebg

4 degrees at 3pm in Knock, that's a winters day.

YanSno

Villain wrote: »

UKMO 144 is a little interesting!

NAO has been up and down like mad near the end of the forecast so wouldn’t be calling that either way yet.

Am not only basing this prediction on just NAO. I have data collected since 2008 and other studies in regards global weather cycles. Global cooling and warming and how models have been performing in the past during past ssw that didn't have a troposphere downwelling. Hence my predictions are still the same, Zonal winds with potential of battleground situations and in same week it could be fairly mild. We could well be still in that situation until the end of March.

sryanbruen

I'm not even going to mention the GFS 12z.

ninebeanrows

YanSno wrote: »

Am not only basing this prediction on just NAO. I have data collected since 2008 and other studies in regards global weather cycles. Global cooling and warming and how models have been performing in the past during past ssw that didn't have a troposphere downwelling. Hence my predictions are still the same, Zonal winds with potential of battleground situations and in same week it could be fairly mild. We could well be still in that situation until the end of March.

Would be interesting for you to provide more detail on this research.

Gonzo

The downgrades overnight are not a shock, we've been here several times already since Christmas, likely to be more upgrades as well which will keep us happy till the next downgrade.

The main thing to keep in mind is that the charts are all over the place, nothing is set in stone and the reason why the charts are all over the place and flip flopping is there are so many factors for and against cold/blocking conditions.

The only thing that's certain is that the next few days look set to be fairly cool or cold, after Sunday everything is up in the air.

ninebeanrows

GFS trending colder today

Snowbiee21

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

GFS trending colder today

Trending?, more like booming!

Villain

YanSno wrote: »

Am not only basing this prediction on just NAO. I have data collected since 2008 and other studies in regards global weather cycles. Global cooling and warming and how models have been performing in the past during past ssw that didn't have a troposphere downwelling. Hence my predictions are still the same, Zonal winds with potential of battleground situations and in same week it could be fairly mild. We could well be still in that situation until the end of March.

Well the signals are the downwelling will come, slowly!

The latest weather charts flip back to cold but I wouldn’t be calling it even if the lads on NW will be putting the bins away for the 12z

Gonzo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

GFS trending colder today

I wouldn't be getting too excited, far too much flip flopping to take any of the charts as reliable. hopefully by Sunday we may be a bit closer to knowing how next week will pan out, in a weeks time will we be back in a mild and unsettled Atlantic airflow? will high pressure center over us keeping us dry and settled? Will winds shift into the east causing wintry conditions?

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Loads of people asking me (in real life!) if its going to snow

Same here, all the teachers talking about me in the staff room and wondering what is my opinion on the whole situation given the usual media hyperbole. I'm sick of having to say the same thing every time to each and every one of them that I just don't see it coming.

Marengo

16th January is really the exact mid point of winter, so we still have plenty of time for cold, if not the very end of January, then February.

SleetAndSnow

God the GFS is such a tease, goes from freezing to high pressure run over us back to freezing run now. Meh no consistency at all.

KingdomRushed

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Could any of the experienced guys report back, is it game over for next week or should we await the 12zs

Gfs 12z has upgraded massively bringing an easterly in a few days time. Very weird

Gonzo

The BBC have released their 10 day trend video, you can sense the frustration in Alex Deakin with the uncertainty.

He does a great job explaining why the models are all over the place with further complications likely next week which could completely change our outlook between cold and mild Atlantic solutions.

Snow next week is very uncertain at this stage.

Keep upto date with the forecasts and be prepared for anything next week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LE8zmccl1I

Billcarson

Billcarson wrote: »

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Could any of the experienced guys report back, is it game over for next week or should we await the 12zs

The way I see it, it is not over for next week ( more so later next week is certainly not decided yet). I'm sure there will be plenty more ups and downs to come.

Indeed it's far from over yet.

Rebelbrowser

Meanwhile the lads over on NW are certain that a January 1987 style easterly and a solution to Brexit are just around the corner.

KingdomRushed

The GFS 12z would bring snow in places next week. No beast from the east level stuff but certainly low lying snow away from coasts. It wouldn’t take much for it to upgrade to something more potent. Or indeed to downgrade either. From what I see of UKMO it’s a similar theme but it doesn’t go far out enough to develop into an easterly but synoptocally similar to GFS out to 144

circadian

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Meanwhile the lads over on NW are certain that a January 1987 style easterly and a solution to Brexit are just around the corner.

One of these things is more likely than the other.

Sparks

Gonzo wrote: »

Keep upto date with the forecasts and be prepared for anything next week.

fryup

at last some proper cold winter weather, lets hope we get a deep frost tonight

RobertKK

Gonzo wrote: »

The BBC have released their 10 day trend video, you can sense the frustration in Alex Deakin with the uncertainty.

He does a great job explaining why the models are all over the place with further complications likely next week which could completely change our outlook between cold and mild Atlantic solutions.

Snow next week is very uncertain at this stage.

Keep upto date with the forecasts and be prepared for anything next week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LE8zmccl1I

Yeah I watched that earlier, the US is going to have a say on our weather.

Will just add it so it can be watched here...

nacho libre

novarock wrote: »

My snow shovel arrived this morning from Amazon. I fully shoulder the blame for the bad charts...

nacho libre

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

GFS trending colder today

I think we would all take that, but you can see it's not going to last long. Yan Sno's call might be a good one. The UK met office is already hinting at such a possibility with the fired up jet. I really hope it isn't a case of Ireland watches on while eastern Britian is where the battle ground lies.

Marengo

All on the ECM screen page now with fingers on F5:)

pad199207

Marengo wrote: »

All on the ECM screen page now with fingers on F5:)

And hands over the faces with eyes through the fingers

NMB

C’mon number 5 show me the smoney!!

Marengo

No surprises out to 48hours:p