Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

ninebeanrows

Interesting GFS 18z.

Has easterly in this day next week

Marengo

Just posted in FI thread something similar.

A bit of consistency:) 2 runs now!

SleetAndSnow

Let's just hope the 0z runs keep it going, at the moment it seems to be 0z and 6z Vs 12z and 18z runs haha

acequion

MidMan25 wrote: »

The opposite actually. In the prairies east of the Rockies. I'm going to the Rockies tomorrow and it should be a lot warmer, highs of -5/-7 and lows only a few degrees less.

MidMan, twas you I was on about very enviously in a post recently as I bemoaned the bland mildness here,though a lot less mild lately tg I hope you're having a lovely time. Canada is an amazing country. I've never been to the Rockies but I was in Quebec last summer and loved it. Quebec would have very marked seasons which I would just love. At the moment their temps would be in the -10 to -15 range, or colder.

Gonzo

would like to see more consistency with the models to regain confidence. If tomorrow morning is a familiar tale of downgrades and wild variations then maybe taking a small break from the model watching may be wise for a day or so.

As the models stand for now, there is an increasing risk of sleet and snow next Tuesday and Wednesday. Depending on the actual temperature and dew points, this will either be marginal for us or could be quite snowy in places, the further north and east you are the better. A low moves down from the north and kind of stalls over us with some cold air circulating around it.



This is still 6 days away so pinch of salt.

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

As the models stand for now, there is an increasing risk of sleet and snow next Tuesday and Wednesday. Depending on the actual temperature and dew points, this will either be marginal for us or could be quite snowy in places, the further north and east you are the better. A low moves down from the north and kind of stalls over us with some cold air circulating around it.

Further east is good but distance from the east coast is essential, due to the onshore wind, especially from Dublin northwards or so....purely based on the chart you posted, that is.

M.T. Cranium

kittyn wrote: »

MT what are your thoughts on the current confusion with the various model outputs?

I should get back to my research so that possibly one day in the distant future we can have a predictive science like astronomy. Imagine if our understanding of the lunar orbit was this mixed up. Neil Armstrong might have landed on Mars.

This is just the usual model chaos times ten because of the already completed SSW event. It is very frustrating for all of us interested in the weather, as we are herded around like blindfolded hostages. Remember a few days ago there was going to be a 950 mb low moving southeast across Scotland? And not even on the GFS.

Rant over. I am trying my best to cobble together forecasts from this ongoing trainwreck, and it's not easy.

Marengo

Just had a peak at the 00 GFS on my phone. Keeps later next week's easterly

Then goes absolutely bonkers out in FI with a Greenland high of 1070hpa around 11/12 days away. This blocking allows very cold air with snow potential to reach us by 30th January. Very far out and mad, but in a good way

Marengo

Maybe some higher ground snow late Monday to Wednesday period. Uppers look a bit high for lower ground?

ninebeanrows

Good morning everybody

Graces7

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

The freshening southerly winds will become strong southeasterly on Thursday night ahead of rain developing in the west. Temperatures will be below freezing in places and the rain will be preceded for a time by a fall of snow as it spreads eastwards across the country.
From met Eirrean

SHUDDERS! Gone colder even reading that... come here, cat!

Cannot afford a cold spell like this. Just too much . No hope.

Not sure what last night was all about. A sudden stormy gale that had me hiding under the bedclothes as the world shook and howled around me. The noise was incredible.

Starry sky now. All calm and clear and very cold.

west mayo oiffshore arctic

Marengo

The ECM is playing ball:)

force eleven

Flip flop models again. Cold in FI. But again, to me it's still FI after day five and eye candy charts are at least a week away. We'll need the weekend to assess where we are. Could go either way I suppose.

KingdomRushed

Very promising looking charts this morning but I would urge caution. The easterly feed developing in them is still 6-7 days away. To see a variation in the evolution with a failing have a look at the FV3 and the GFS control

BLIZZARD7

force eleven wrote: »

Flip flop models again. Cold in FI. But again, to me it's still FI after day five and eye candy charts are at least a week away. We'll need the weekend to assess where we are. Could go either way I suppose.

Indeed still FI but if we just take that ECM run- its only going one way from +120 hrs, if by tomorrow evening/Sat morning we still have these charts then confidence will be very high. Of course finer details like how dry or maybe snowy we end up won't be sorted until early next week.
The models are now all building towards a cold blocked outcome - this should gather pace in the next 24-48 hours.

Pattern re-amplifying over the states on the day 10 NH chart -

sryanbruen

All I can say is wow. What a morning of charts to wake up to. Giving me shivers looking at them especially considering I’m feeling very cold here right now with all my windows closed. Could only imagine next week if charts were to verify. I await for the consistency still. One important feature to watch is Tuesday’s low diving south which could be pretty telling.

M.T. Cranium

Models are slowly moving towards some sort of consensus, still some chance of a reversal but momentum is growing for the cold spell next week following on this modified cold. Looks to be a very gradual trend for Ireland as opposed to a somewhat faster downward spiral for England. ECM slightly more robust than GFS but both are wintry looking. Difficult forecasts ahead, marginal uppers and weak frontal zones, oh well it beats the mild Atlantic muck.

NMB

Caution etc However the trend is your friend here’s hoping the next few runs even if they flip a little more that Sy gets to wear his awesome jumper during something a bit more significant !

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

All I can say is wow. What a morning of charts to wake up to. Giving me shivers looking at them especially considering I’m feeling very cold here right now with all my windows closed. Could only imagine next week if charts were to verify. I await for the consistency still. One important feature to watch is Tuesday’s low diving south which could be pretty telling.

Finally the GFS 0z doesn't downgrade... it wasn't a big ask GFS was it? Also what the heck... we just had our first air frost and ground frost of the season... I thought we aren't supposed to have frosts in winter 2018-19?

sryanbruen

Hurray, I have finally had my first air frost not only of 2019 but also since October!

Gaoth Laidir

Casement overnight low -1.5 °C (grass -4 °C).

Rebelbrowser

For once, as a committed snow nut, I'm not happy with these kind of charts. Flying out of Dublin next Friday week for a few days skiing. If the ECM is right (1) I will miss all the fun here with my kids (2) I may not be able to fly and (3) I will freeze my nuts off in Austria (look at the colours over it!).

Back Tuesday night, 29th, so hoping for just a little delay. In fact even GFS is fine with me!

Kutebride

Fabulous North Star out there. Back from a run. Been a while since wore gloves. All cars frosted over. Underfoot ok except where manhole lids were shiny & slippy. Meath.

SleetAndSnow

My god the 0z and last night's models actually agreed on something for the big 3. That's a surprise.

As for here in cork city currently, cars have frost on them for the first time since about October id say. Beautiful.

KingdomRushed

I’ve had a more in depth look at the models now including the GFS ensembles.

The GFS operational and ECM are superb.

However, the UKMO is not quite there with high pressure more strongly established to our west at the same period it’s pushing outwards in Scandinavia on GFS/ECM

The whole set up hinges on low pressure system pushing right through us on a south easy trajectory at 144 hours. The amount of this energy clearing away cleanly helps set up the easterly and latterly regression toward Greenland

The GFS ensemble spread contains some lovely runs BUT also contains troubling clusters whereby the low pressure does not eject as cleanly to our south east leaving us in a much more messy set up

GFS para (FV3) purportedly more advanced than GFS is also refusing to come on board.

ECM being lovely is reassuring. But this is complex Synoptics and I would urge exceptional caution before telling the lads around the water cooler or the kids at home. It’s very much still a 50:50 job to me.

At some point in the next 2 days IF the easterly is what we are destined to have we will see the huge scatter in the ensembles disappear at the hinge point currently 120-144 hours I would say.

For now lovely model output, but it’s a much more fragile evolution toward cold than was showing in February 2018

(edit) the ensemble mean for ECM looks very good. Northerly blocking, cold uppers

highdef

KingdomRushed wrote: »

ECM being lovely is reassuring. But this is complex Synoptics and I would urge exceptional caution before telling the lads around the water cooler or the kids at home. It’s very much still a 50:50 job to me.

At some point in the next 2 days IF the easterly is what we are destined to have we will see the huge scatter in the ensembles disappear at the hinge point currently 120-144 hours I would say.

For now lovely model output, but it’s a much more fragile evolution toward cold than was showing in February 2018

Can't agree more. I'm solely responsible for notifying and updating key stakeholders in the large company I work for, when it comes to weather events that could impact the day to day operations. There's been a couple of times in the past week that I've been on the verge of sending out a "heads up" email to key members of the management team however I have refrained from doing so.

There's still not enough across the board agreement across most/all models with regards to what will be happening in about a weeks time (or even less) and therefore I don't yet have enough confidence to begin sending out notifications to the company in case I end up with egg on my face, not to mention the mess that is made to business operations that prepares for snow that does not transpire.

Very cold condition and snow are looking increasingly likely for many and come tomorrow afternoon, after another few runs of all the various models, I may have enough confidence to send out that "heads up" email before the weekend begins but if any downgrades are thrown into the mix between now and then, I may well keep quiet until next week.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Woken up by a heavy grauple shower bouncing off the velux windows at 5.30am. Winter has arrived.

Billcarson

My first airfrost since Nov 2nd. let's hope the second half of this winter will be somewhat better then the first.

Billcarson

Graces7 wrote: »

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

The freshening southerly winds will become strong southeasterly on Thursday night ahead of rain developing in the west. Temperatures will be below freezing in places and the rain will be preceded for a time by a fall of snow as it spreads eastwards across the country.
From met Eirrean

SHUDDERS! Gone colder even reading that... come here, cat!

Cannot afford a cold spell like this. Just too much . No hope.

Not sure what last night was all about. A sudden stormy gale that had me hiding under the bedclothes as the world shook and howled around me. The noise was incredible.

Starry sky now. All calm and clear and very cold.

west mayo oiffshore arctic

With all due respect though people who don't want cold have been getting away with murder the last ten weeks. Winter has to arrive at some point.

pad199207

Haven’t seen it this cold near 9am since March 2018