Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Marengo

Now we’re looking at 2 bad runs out of 8. In anyone’s book that’s a trend

YanSno

kittyn wrote: »

What a run from the GFS 😱🥶🥶

Yeah for sure very cold uppers South East UK

SleetAndSnow

-12 uppers just tipping the wexford coast at 222?

Vxlkss

18Z is great! I think the only problem is the lack of the E wind that comes in around the 25th, however it could paste Leinster, I do think small adjustments are needed but what a run!

Marengo

Vxlkss wrote: »

18Z is great! I think the only problem is the lack of the E wind that comes in around the 25th, however it could paste Leinster, I do think small adjustments are needed but what a run!

Borderline epic;)

sryanbruen

YanSno wrote: »

Yeah for sure very cold uppers South East UK

Definitely not getting the hype on this 18z run, looks very marginal for the east of Ireland with the UK in the firing line.

sdanseo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Definitely not getting the hype on this 18z run, looks very marginal for the east of Ireland with the UK in the firing line.

Completely agree, upper temps are not low enough for any sort of snow over Ireland up to +200hrs, which is so far out of range as to be pointless to look at.

Run to run differences aside though, the overall trend continues to be cold across all models. In another week I think it will be very clear that we are headed into the freezer for an extended stay.

pad199207

All the glossy goodies are too far out I’m afraid. Still nothing in the reliable. The trend is cold for next week but wether it’s colder or just the same nuisance cold we have now, remains to be seen.

I’d toast the 18z if I was in England yeah..

Vxlkss

tbh, i was happy with the 18z because it's still showing Monday night/Tuesdays event lol

YanSno

sryanbruen wrote: »

Definitely not getting the hype on this 18z run, looks very marginal for the east of Ireland with the UK in the firing line.

Exactly what i expected that HP south west of Ireland is not going anywhere it will topple over and build back up.

sryanbruen

GFS 18z in fact reminded me of February 2012 a lot....

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 18z in fact reminded me of February 2012 a lot....

For me the low uppers seem that bit closer, in over Leinster. Could be borderline Sryan

It’s amazing how there is very different opinion among the most respected posters:)

Marengo

There’s extra hype/excitement as we’ve been bored by the winter weather so far and there’s bound to be huge speculation at any hinted change.

Meteorite58

Wintry cold night out there with a rain, sleet and snow mix

nacho libre

Go on Sryan keep being negative;)

Until that piece of vortex over Canada shifts favourably, we seem to be stuck with a high that will hover too close or topple over us because it can't retrogress sufficently northwards to allow proper sustained cold to take hold over all of Ireland. There was an outside chance of it getting to Scandanavia, but i don't think that will happen

However on the 27th parts of the east make get some snowfall,-9- to -11 upper temps are more than enough. There is no sign of a 1991 or 1987 type event for Ireland just yet. Maybe it will happen in February, but then the talk will be of February being too late for snow:pac:

mickger844posts

I wouldn't be reading much into that GFS 18z run. Frankly some of its output since the SSW event has been laughable. As always the trend is your friend and always better to have the ECM on board. Hopefully the ECM 0Z will continue the trend. Still all to play for.

Marengo

nacho libre wrote: »

Go on Sryan keep being negative;)

Until that piece of vortex over Canada shifts favourably, we seem to be stuck with a high that will hover too close or topple over us because it can't retrogress sufficently northwards to allow proper sustained cold to take hold over all of Ireland. There was an outside chance of it getting to Scandanavia, but i don't think that will happen

However on the 27th parts of the east make get some snowfall,-9- to -11 upper temps are more than enough. There is no sign of a 1991 or 1987 type event for Ireland just yet. Maybe it will happen in February, but then the talk will be of February being too late for snow:pac:

Do you think Nacho that the American eastern seaboard storm could resolve this lobe of Canadian vortex?

vid36

Watching some white gold fall, the first time this winter.( North East Galway).

nacho libre

Marengo wrote: »

Do you think Nacho that the American eastern seaboard storm could resolve this lobe of Canadian vortex?

The storm hanging back would increases our chances of the high to the South west not eventually toppling in on us and cutting off the cold air source. Maybe the mjo going into phase 6 or seven along with a weak el nino pattern will lead to northern Blocking in February. I could be wrong, but i don't think the SSW is going to deliver the goods now in terms of proper northern blocking, Gaoth Laidir was right it seems about the reversal only being good enough to produce a mid Atlantic high.

John.Icy

Great 18Z for parts of the UK. Very snowy.

Agreed with others re: it not being anything great for these shores. Takes till +200 for the cold to really get here and that is not a timeframe to be raving over considering the model output of the last few days and the frequency of things changing. As nice as it is to see an easterly as a strong possibility, we just keep getting modelled too close to the edge. Outside of a frame or to on that 18Z we are sitting under the arm of heights that are feeding the developing Scandi.

As long as there is a mass of high pressure right to our SW we will struggle to lock in a snowy pattern here.

monster1

Some snow falling here Midwest roscommon.

Larbre34

One thing I noticed out and about in Dublin this evening, that I hadn't noticed in many years, was smog.

At first I thought there might have been a blaze somewhere and it was hanging about in the still dank air but I was in Blackrock, Ranelagh and Lucan and it was the same experience in all places, a light smoke haze with a coal/turf odour. Should we be looking at tougher enforcement of the smokeless fuel laws, or was it just rare conditions that made the worst of it?

Danno

Light snow flurry in Durrow, Laois County just now. 2.8c but dewpoints are -0.5c.

FrDougalMcguire

Snowing in Charlestown Co Mayo now. Wet stuff but snowing!

mountainy man

Snowing here SE Sligo and starting to stick.

FrDougalMcguire

https://www.dropbox.com/s/c7n037uw1aoqold/20190118_002129.mp4?dl=0

pauldry

snow and sleet n Sligo town

John.Icy

Anyone very in tune with wildlife and nature...What on earth is going on in bird land lately??? Mild nights, cold nights...out in force singing every night. Doesn't start till around 1am either. So strange. Can't ever recall a prolonged period like this. Even during summers if I was up all night you wouldn't start hearing them till 4am or later.

igCorcaigh

Lot of insect and spider life too, bless 'em.

Heavy rain here in Cork. The dry spell has ended.

force eleven

Even though colder weather does now look on the way this time next week, it may be a glancing blow for us from the east, with coldest weather diving Southwest wards across England and Wales, missing us. I'm taking a break from the models for two days and will hope to see a correction westward.