Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sicknotexi

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 06z is good from Sunday 27th onwards for significant snow in terms of the parameters. Other than that, not great..... besides maybe Tuesday.

I remain pessimistic.

Why you pessimistic man? Anything you see in the models that you particularly don't like?

Gonzo

this mornings run looks good from about the 27th, but nothing epic and may only last a few days. We have almost a 1 week delay with the cold compared to the UK. That high pressure to our west really causing us problems.

I'd still like to see us getting the cold from the east earlier than the 27th. The cold next Monday/Tuesday looks very short lived for us, could be a rain - snow - rain event for us.

BLIZZARD7

Nothing epic? 06z GFS has a 1982 or March 2018 type event at day 9/10 - Obviously not* to be taken seriously at this point but places would get buried if this came off-

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

. The cold next Monday/Tuesday looks very short lived for us, could be a rain - snow - rain event for us.

I hate that type of event. It’s pointless, might as well be just all rain event.

Lots of changes to come anyway. The rollercoaster continues.

irishrover99

Is epic the new word of choice these days:):pac:

JCX BXC

irishrover99 wrote: »

Is epic the new word of choice these days:):pac:

Oh hopefully that word never makes a comeback.

It's just terrible.

ZX7R

Looking like that large deplacement of cold vortex over Canada is looking like it's to push further south and east into north America.
Looking at this would the high pressure be shoved further east putting Ireland back into high pressure experienced for the last 4 week's maybe with more frost and clear skies.
Or will it fire up the jet..

HighLine

You can see a fair amount of snow still over the Wicklow Mountains on the Sat24 loop

https://en.sat24.com/hd/en/gb

YanSno

JCX BXC wrote: »

Oh hopefully that word never makes a comeback.

It's just terrible.

That word should be ban in this forum

Marengo

YanSno wrote: »

Some people were calling these charts last night the best they've seen and others were getting carried away while 'i insisted' we are not going to have anything out the ordinary. NAO well into positive and chances for a blocking has diminished.

'I insisted'

Very funny! Maybe taking everything a bit too seriously. We were commenting on 2 model runs. We don't take them as gospel whether showing what we want or what we don't want. The ECM has backed off a bit, GFS still good for cold. The ECM may change tomorrow.

Excitement is allowed with model runs, as Villain said it's part of the fun

Marengo

YanSno wrote: »

That word should be ban in this forum

Do you have ownership rights to the weather forum.

derekon

ZX7R wrote: »

Looking like that large deplacement of cold vortex over Canada is looking like it's to push further south and east into north America.
Looking at this would the high pressure be shoved further east putting Ireland back into high pressure experienced for the last 4 week's maybe with more frost and clear skies.
Or will it fire up the jet..

So either way no snow!! Thanks for confirming, you should get down to Paddy Power and place a bet 😀
Exciting times ahead for model watchers
Ireland is turning cold........

D

Marengo

JCX BXC wrote: »

Oh hopefully that word never makes a comeback.

It's just terrible.

Blame Patrick Kavanagh..who used it with a large dose of irony

Snow Garden

We need to expel the UK from Europe quicker so we can avail of their easterlies without interruption!

sryanbruen

sicknotexi wrote: »

Why you pessimistic man? Anything you see in the models that you particularly don't like?

Everything conducive to snow (bar Tuesday) for Ireland is past 200 hours as it has been for a while now and it has backtracked to the last weekend of January compared to around the 23rd when it was likely we’d get some decent temporary easterly as the low dived south.

The UK is getting the luck on these runs if it’s snow you’re after unless in the depths of FI, not Ireland. Last night’s runs were particularly revealing of this.

There’s nothing that screams to me that a significant cold spell is on the way. NAO is still signaled to be positive. SSW has not propagated.

ZX7R

derekon wrote: »

So either way no snow!! Thanks for confirming, you should get down to Paddy Power and place a bet 😀
Exciting times ahead for model watchers
Ireland is turning cold........

D

I never said no snow derekon,
I more wondering if it will have more of an effect on our weather than expected

pad199207

I don’t think any scenario should be discounted for next week. The upgrades and downgrades are are so erratic at the moment.

Marengo

pad199207 wrote: »

I don’t think any scenario should be discounted for next week. The upgrades and downgrades are are so erratic at the moment.

Exactly Pad. Beyond next Tuesday no one knows.

Naturally cold/snow lovers will look for what we want to see. Same for those who prefer mild weather.

And then we have the realists. And we're all free to comment, and use whatever words we like bar profanity or insulting others!

Gonzo

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Nothing epic? 06z GFS has a 1982 or March 2018 type event at day 9/10 - Obviously not* to be taken seriously at this point but places would get buried if this came off-

It looks good alright, but it's more than a week away, if we still have similar looking charts for the 27th, heading into next weekend then i'll be happy!

So much can go wrong in the meantime, particularly with the models changing very rapidly. What I am really hoping for is that we lose the Atlantic influence sooner than January 25th. The ideal scenario would be for the cold to hold and build from next Tuesday with the mild Atlantic air getting pushed out into the Atlantic, away from our shores entirely.

pad199207

Marengo wrote: »

Exactly Pad. Beyond next Tuesday no one knows.

Naturally cold/snow lovers will look for what we want to see. Same for those who prefer mild weather.

And then we have the realists. And we're all free to comment, and use whatever words we like bar profanity or insulting others!

Yeah that is true but there are plenty of people on here who have much to add to the discussion which is fantastic to have.

Charts are currently modeling some serious cold out east, and serious cold when entrenched is hard to move. But ofcourse the other side of the balance is the Atlantic. This time around the Atlantic is fairly benign for the time of the year so which would lead most to beleive that the cold will out.
It’s a case of patience and calm needed by all.

I have no doubt that quite a few places will see the white gold falling next week.

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

Everything conducive to snow (bar Tuesday) for Ireland is past 200 hours as it has been for a while now and it has backtracked to the last weekend of January compared to around the 23rd when it was likely we’d get some decent temporary easterly as the low dived south.

The UK is getting the luck on these runs if it’s snow you’re after unless in the depths of FI, not Ireland. Last night’s runs were particularly revealing of this.

There’s nothing that screams to me that a significant cold spell is on the way. NAO is still signaled to be positive. SSW has not propagated.

You made a very good point when you posted a February 3 2012 chart yesterday, then we missed out because we were stuck in no mans land between a Scand high and the Azores high and the current set up is looking very similar.
I've seen more winters than I care to remember ruined by that damn Azores high!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2012/bra/BRA_1_2012020300_45.png

Mortelaro

Considerable uncertainty on the track of the US northeaster still so where that goes is impacting model options for what happens this side of the pond later
Also it's actually not a very cold system (rain after midnight in NYC)so not an equivalent Atlantic stormmaker like previous years that had a lot of super cold air firing up the jet stream in my opinion
I'm waiting to see What's modelled by Monday before thinking too much about next weekend and beyond

Gonzo

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

You made a very good point when you posted a February 3 2012 chart yesterday, then we missed out because we were stuck in no mans land between a Scand high and the Azores high and the current set up is looking very similar.
I've seen more winters than I care to remember ruined by that damn Azores high!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/2012/bra/BRA_1_2012020300_45.png

I think this is my main fear too. From this Monday to next Thursday/Friday is currently looking very much like that, us on the mild side and the UK with decent cold and potentially snowy conditions. If the charts are to be believed, we do eventually get their by the 27th or 28th of January, a whole week after the UK has had some fun.

We can only hope that upgrades start happening very soon that bring this cold to us sooner, by mid week next week and that we get locked into proper cold.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

I think this is my main fear too. From this Monday to next Thursday/Friday is currently looking very much like that, us on the mild side and the UK with decent cold and potentially snowy conditions. If the charts are to be believed, we do eventually get their by the 27th or 28th of January, a whole week after the UK has had some fun.

We can only hope that upgrades start happening very soon that bring this cold to us sooner, by mid week next week and that we get locked into proper cold.

It’s hard to believe that it will take a whole week for us to get the cold in while just across the water Britain will be bitter.

How cruel that would be, but I doubt it would take that long for us to join the fun.

Marengo

pad199207 wrote: »

It’s hard to believe that it will take a whole week for us to get the cold in while just across the water Britain will be bitter.

How cruel that would be, but I doubt it would take that long for us to join the fun.

It can all end in tears when the cold stops at Wales but overall better having -14 uppers over the UK than Poland if wind patterns are right. At least for February if this time next week doesn't come through.

Maybe NAO go negative etc.

Gonzo

pad199207 wrote: »

It’s hard to believe that it will take a whole week for us to get the cold in while just across the water Britain will be bitter.

How cruel that would be, but I doubt it would take that long for us to join the fun.

Unfortunately this is a situation I've been through several times, not just in 2012. Off the top of my head I can't remember the other years, but it definitely happened in the 1980s and 1990s.

Marengo

Gonzo wrote: »

Unfortunately this is a situation I've been through several times, not just in 2012. Off the top of my head I can't remember the other years, but it definitely happened in the 1980s and 1990s.

1991 we got action but paled in comparison to the UK. 1994 to a greater extent.

Many occassions as you say. Then plenty like 31 December to 10th Jan 1997 where we did aswell as the UK. Nice easterly hit the last weekend in January 1996 too.

Billcarson

Gonzo wrote: »

pad199207 wrote: »

It’s hard to believe that it will take a whole week for us to get the cold in while just across the water Britain will be bitter.

How cruel that would be, but I doubt it would take that long for us to join the fun.

Unfortunately this is a situation I've been through several times, not just in 2012. Off the top of my head I can't remember the other years, but it definitely happened in the 1980s and 1990s.

Jan 2013 the cold reached as far as Wales and Ireland missed out by and large which was so frustrating . Although it was not an overly severe spell in Britain anyway but they got the snow and we got the muck.

Gonzo

just after watching Gav's latest video where he looks at the JMA models. Quite an interesting video as he runs through his predictions for the next 4 weeks.

The charts show the high pressure dangerously close to Ireland during next week, keeping us on the very western extent of cold, but after next weekend, the high pressure looks like it will move away to our north, centering over Greenland, allowing more of an easterly type flow to set up with greater chances of cold for Ireland.

The below average heights would also suggest more unsettled conditions for us by then, with a greater chance of that precipitation falling as snow. This takes us through into the 1st week of February.

At the same time there could be record breaking cold over many parts of Canada and United States.

Into the second week of February, it is suggested that the jet stream may start to move back north again with a possible battleground scenario over the UK and possibly Ireland. By 3rd week of February, his charts suggest we're back into milder conditions with higher than average precipitation and below average heights stretching from northern Canada, across the Atlantic and into Ireland, UK and much of north-west Europe.

Going my his predictions, we are likely to see a 1 to 2 week cold spell, for Ireland this looks more like last few days of January and first week of February, then possibly a breakdown after the 1st week of February, which depending on temperature could still bring us snowy conditions.

The interesting times ahead continue. Links to Gav's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMzyVsqilR4

Gonzo

Billcarson wrote: »

Jan 2013 the cold reached as far as Wales and Ireland missed out by and large which was so frustrating . Although it was not an overly severe spell in Britain anyway but they got the snow and we got the muck.

I remember that, it was very annoying. We saw news reports with welsh beaches covered in snow, meanwhile on the east coast of Ireland just 70km away it was 8C+ and drizzle.