Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Marengo

Gonzo wrote: »

I remember that, it was very annoying. We saw news reports with welsh beaches covered in snow, meanwhile on the east coast of Ireland just 70km away it was 8C+ and drizzle.

Was it not 2012?

Marengo

Gonzo wrote: »

just after watching Gav's latest video where he looks at the JMA models. Quite an interesting video as he runs through his predictions for the next 4 weeks.

The charts show the high pressure dangerously close to Ireland during next week, keeping us on the very western extent of cold, but after next weekend, the high pressure looks like it will move away to our north, centering over Greenland, allowing more of an easterly type flow to set up with greater chances of cold for Ireland.

The below average heights would also suggest more unsettled conditions for us by then, with a greater chance of that precipitation falling as snow. This takes us through into the 1st week of February.

At the same time there could be record breaking cold over many parts of Canada and United States.

Into the second week of February, it is suggested that the jet stream may start to move back north again with a possible battleground scenario over the UK and possibly Ireland. By 3rd week of February, his charts suggest we're back into milder conditions with higher than average precipitation and below average heights stretching from northern Canada, across the Atlantic and into Ireland, UK and much of north-west Europe.

Going my his predictions, we are likely to see a 1 to 2 week cold spell, for Ireland this looks more like last few days of January and first week of February, then possibly a breakdown after the 1st week of February, which depending on temperature could still bring us snowy conditions.

The interesting times ahead continue. Links to Gav's video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMzyVsqilR4

Very like February 2009..

Gonzo

Marengo wrote: »

Was it not 2012?

It happened both years, but to a greater extent in 2012 we're we didn't get a flake of snow. In 2013 with got some feeble nighttime attempts of snow In March.

Gonzo

Marengo wrote: »

Very like February 2009..

I'd be more than happy to have another February 2009.

I would easily take a week of proper cold with 5 or 6 inches of snow, lovely sunsets glowing over snowfields and severe night time frosts in the next 2 weeks over last year's Beast From The East/Storm Emma.

However Beast From The East/Storm Emma around now would be much better than having it run into March.

Marengo

Gonzo wrote: »

I'd be more than happy to have another February 2009.

I would easily take a week of proper cold with 5 or 6 inches of snow, lovely sunsets glowing over snowfields and severe night time frosts in the next 2 weeks over last year's Beast From The East/Storm Emma.

However Beast From The East/Storm Emma around now would be much better than having it run into March.

Agreed. It was a lovely wintry spell and I lived in a mountainy area then and had snow from 2nd Feb until the last left ditches on 23 Feb.

irishrover99

I know its scoffed at by some but ventusky is showing some descent snow for Tuesday,pretty much all day from the NW
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.25;-4.82;6&l=rain-3h&t=20190122/0600

And then next Sunday it starts up again this time from the east.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.25;-4.82;6&l=rain-3h&t=20190127/1200

I think it fairly reliable in the shorter time frames and Tuesday isn't that far away.

Marengo

Latest GFS, still in the game up to a week away. No major mild swings.

highdef

Quite a different run to the last. Pressure is much higher in Northern Scandinavia which is fantastic. My F5 key will be broken by the time the run completes in about a half hour!

Marengo

Going a little downhill at 198h but maybe a slider low coming up and high building over Scandinavia. #eternal optimist

pad199207

This is really really fascinating model watching!

Rebelbrowser

Marengo wrote: »

Agreed. It was a lovely wintry spell and I lived in a mountainy area then and had snow from 2nd Feb until the last left ditches on 23 Feb.

That was a Leinster only event guys. Not a flake for the rest of us as I recall.

highdef

Marengo wrote: »

Going a little downhill at 198h but maybe a slider low coming up and high building over Scandinavia. #eternal optimist

Not sure if I agree. Pressure is continuing to build from Scandinavia towards Greenland. The low to our west doesn't seem to be making any inroads which is a good sign. This a great run, in terms of making me nervous!!!

Rebelbrowser

Does anyone see any correlation at all between the excitement of the nutters on NW and this afternoons models so far? Even for the UK they are a downgrade but try telling them that! We seem to be too near High pressure for any chance of snow from the cold temps we will see on 24 to 26 Jan.

kittyn

highdef wrote: »

Not sure if I agree. Pressure is continuing to build from Scandinavia towards Greenland. The low to our west doesn't seem to be making any inroads which is a good sign. This a great run, in terms of making me nervous!!!

Nervous excited maybe

Marengo

highdef wrote: »

Not sure if I agree. Pressure is continuing to build from Scandinavia towards Greenland. The low to our west doesn't seem to be making any inroads which is a good sign. This a great run, in terms of making me nervous!!!

Yes that low is stalling and overall better. Knife edge stuff.

Feck it we might get lucky somewhere along the line.

Villain

Well the UKMO is interesting! Let’s see what ECMWF does later, interesting model watching days ahead!

Billcarson

Gonzo wrote: »

Marengo wrote: »

Was it not 2012?

It happened both years, but to a greater extent in 2012 we're we didn't get a flake of snow. In 2013 with got some feeble nighttime attempts of snow In March.

I think in Britain though it was really only a southeast event anyway. If I remember much of the UK missed out aswell. Severe cold in Europe with Ireland and most of Britain missing out but very cold in the se of Britain late Jan much of the first half of feb 2012. We got one or 2 severe frosts at the very start of Feb.

Marengo

It looks like the ECM is going to be the most important run since.. last night's;)

Marengo

Billcarson wrote: »

I think in Britain though it was really only a southeast event anyway. If I remember much of the UK missed out aswell. Severe cold in Europe with Ireland and most of Britain missing out but very cold in the se of Britain late Jan much of the first half of feb 2012. We got one or 2 severe frosts at the very start of Feb.

Remember the 6N match v France being called off last min in 2012. They had serious cold.

pad199207

Snow right on the coast in Liverpool today

Muckka

pad199207 wrote: »

Snow right on the coast in Liverpool today

Probably the Wirral

highdef

Very much knife edge stuff as the GFS continues to roll out. Although there is high pressure showing from Greenland to northern Scandinavia/Russia, the cold pool to our east is not showing as THAT cold. Great charts, by all means though.

pad199207

Muckka wrote: »

Probably the Wirral

Sefton Park.

highdef

On the upside, it looks like the cold is moving north, back out of Canada. At the same time, extremely cold uppers are building to our north and north east. Perhaps this could lead to us getting our share of the cold that the US and Canada has been having lately.

Billcarson

Gonzo wrote: »

Marengo wrote: »

Very like February 2009..

I'd be more than happy to have another February 2009.

I would easily take a week of proper cold with 5 or 6 inches of snow, lovely sunsets glowing over snowfields and severe night time frosts in the next 2 weeks over last year's Beast From The East/Storm Emma.

However Beast From The East/Storm Emma around now would be much better than having it run into March.

Yes. The one thing tbfte was missing last yr apart from not coming earlier in the season was frosty nights and deep cold minimums. Here in the east anyway it was often cloudy. I would much rather a few inches of snow combined with bright frosty weather and lasting longer on the ground. Last yr was more like a wham bam thank you mam thing really with the as much snow as we got gone after a few short days.

sryanbruen

Billcarson wrote: »

Yes. The one thing tbfte was missing last yr apart from not coming earlier in the season was frosty nights and deep cold minimums. Here in the east anyway it was often cloudy. I would much rather a few inches of snow combined with bright frosty weather and lasting longer on the ground. Last yr was more like a wham bam thank you mam thing really with the as much snow as we got gone after a few short days.

That's exactly why I found 2010 far superior, not because of it being much more prolonged but the fact that there was fine bright weather on a good number of the days with snow especially the end of November.

Gonzo

latest run definitely has some positive to it.

Eastern Ireland looks to hold onto the cold from Tuesday better. Certainly next Wednesday and Thursday is looking colder for Leinster, perhaps a slightly better chance that next Tuesday's precipitation event could turn snowy over Leinster at times, but still marginal.

The mild looks like it has shifted west by about 50 or 60 miles, which is still not enough, but we could be in line for some wintry showers over Leinster next Wednesday and Thursday.

Marengo

Jean Byrne on RTE 1 weather now saying 'turning much colder by the end of next week'. Verbatim quote. UKMO based assessment probably?

SortingYouOut

Snow falling here in Laois.

Gonzo

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Snow falling here in Laois.

where in Laois? It's generally 8 to 9C across most of Ireland right now.