Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

KingdomRushed

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

daheff

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Nothing epic? 06z GFS has a 1982 or March 2018 type event at day 9/10 - Obviously not* to be taken seriously at this point but places would get buried if this came off-

Until either MT Cranium comes telling me its happening or it happens, I'm not getting my hopes up.


But i will be getting my spot to watch the lamppost all cosy & ready

Marengo

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

When i hear you speak so Kingdom Rushed it fill me with hope:)

Billcarson

sryanbruen wrote: »

Billcarson wrote: »

Yes. The one thing tbfte was missing last yr apart from not coming earlier in the season was frosty nights and deep cold minimums. Here in the east anyway it was often cloudy. I would much rather a few inches of snow combined with bright frosty weather and lasting longer on the ground. Last yr was more like a wham bam thank you mam thing really with the as much snow as we got gone after a few short days.

That's exactly why I found 2010 far superior, not because of it being much more prolonged but the fact that there was fine bright weather on a good number of the days with snow especially the end of November.

Also the cold spell of late feb into early march 2001. The east got heavy snow on the 27th and it was followed by cold frosty nights. The snow hung around a bit longer then last yr despite it being exactly the same time of the yr . I think cold frosty nights can help protect the snowcover to a certain extent by making it more resistant to melt during the daytime despite more sunshine.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

where in Laois? It's generally 8 to 9C across most of Ireland right now.

Laois, it's a small village in Siberia!! LOL, me thinks someone has made a schoolboy error, not checking the temperatures before posting!!

D

derekon

daheff wrote: »

Until either MT Cranium comes telling me its happening or it happens, I'm not getting my hopes up.


But i will be getting my spot to watch the lamppost all cosy & ready

Yes, agreed. MT has been very non commital, which is perfectly understandable. I think over on UK Netweather he compared trying to get a handle on the models like six blind men trying to tame an elephant!

If he comes on board soon, I'd be much more confident!!

D

esposito

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

The fact that the UKMO model appears to be on board is very significant. Very interesting but still not getting carried away just yet.

munsterlegend

KingdomRushed wrote: »

The afternoon model outputs are coalescing around historic cold outbreak into Western Europe. It’s looking like the variability is reducing in GFS ensembles too with cold solutions now favored after the low dives south Tuesday.

Most notable day of model output since the Beast last year for me and I’m now firmly paying attention

Britain definitely in the firing line but will the colder air make it far enough west?

Reckless Abandonment

If I was in England I,d be stocking up the bread alright, but god its a knife edge for us, my untrained opinion is, it will all move west and well be in the game to.

should say it will all move east and jump back west 24h out

Danno

Some snow above 350m or thereabouts in Laois:

https://twitter.com/LaoisWeather/status/1086318889410138112

m17

Southern germany 16/01/19

Danno

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Snow falling here in Laois.

Gonzo wrote: »

where in Laois? It's generally 8 to 9C across most of Ireland right now.

derekon wrote: »

Laois, it's a small village in Siberia!! LOL, me thinks someone has made a schoolboy error, not checking the temperatures before posting!!

D

Over the Slieve Bloom mountains around an hour ago, there were a few very light showers about, possibly sleety at the very highest parts - I didn't drive through any showers though, but I guess they were what SortingYouOut is on about?

Villain

The silence during ECMWF in here

Marengo

It's a little different than UKMO at 120 but hopefully evolving to the same conclusion, in it's own way...

SleetAndSnow

I mean.. its not great up to 144..more east.. but its a rollercoaster throughout the entire week. This happened countless times last year too, I remember one such occasion when the ECM showed a total different setup maybe 72hrs before? But thenext run we were back to BFTE viewings.

Ah well. Rollercoaster is the main word here, and thats why its so fun!

Mortelaro

Marengo wrote: »

It's a little different than UKMO at 120 but hopefully evolving to the same conclusion, in it's own way...

Slacker winds but same air source,surely dew points would be negative and with low pressure about,what would be falling out of the sky?
Isn't this essentially the main model of the big three now saying game on

Artane2002

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I mean.. its not great up to 144..more east.. but its a rollercoaster throughout the entire week. This happened countless times last year too, I remember one such occasion when the ECM showed a total different setup maybe 72hrs before? But thenext run we were back to BFTE viewings.

Ah well. Rollercoaster is the main word here, and thats why its so fun!

If I remember correctly, the ECM kept insisting that we'd get mild southwesterlies for numerous runs in a row.

sryanbruen

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I mean.. its not great up to 144..more east.. but its a rollercoaster throughout the entire week. This happened countless times last year too, I remember one such occasion when the ECM showed a total different setup maybe 72hrs before? But thenext run we were back to BFTE viewings.

Ah well. Rollercoaster is the main word here, and thats why its so fun!

What I remember from last year was that the ECM showed the high pressure too far south to pull in the easterly to Ireland on a lot of its runs. People were being pessimistic about it and I called it the "European Crap Model" as a result out of anger trying to prove it was wrong and how strongly I felt of the easterly coming through for us.

SleetAndSnow

sryanbruen wrote: »

What I remember from last year was that the ECM showed the high pressure too far south to pull in the easterly to Ireland on a lot of its runs. People were being pessimistic about it and I called it the "European Crap Model" as a result out of anger trying to prove it was wrong and how strongly I felt of the easterly coming through for us.

Yup thats what I remember and then it all changed again with the next model! Knew it was something like that alright.

Villain

Ya ECM shows how tight this is and how we could just miss out but the cold pool is there we just need to tap into it a little more.

Plenty more “crucial” runs ahead.

Whatever the outcome isn’t it great to watching these kind of charts rather than the boring high pressure mild cloudy crap for first week of January!

Marengo

At present 2 out of 3 models ain't bad. Given we'd rather have all 3 or the ECM instead of the GFS

Still..all toplay for.

SeaBreezes

Have to agree loving the charts and the knife edge of the will it won’t it. Thanks to all the posters and the knowledge shared�� Loving the roller coaster and the interpretations!

Marengo

That ECM is going in the Netweather bin!!

sryanbruen

Marengo wrote: »

That ECM is going in the Netweather bin!!

Which one ? They must have had a good few bins by this stage.

SleetAndSnow

Know why I prefer this forum vs netweather? Just looking at it now and they are pretty much having a panic attack and looking everywhere for something versus here where we are just enjoying the ride and actually having discussions about the outlook (while obvs looking where it could improve but you know what I mean!)

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Which one ? They must have had a good few bins by this stage.

I suppose their GFS bin...seems pretty large!!

hatrickpatrick

Let's be honest folks, if the models weren't unpredictable like this, weather forecasting would be boring as f*ck. Hopefully the ECM jumps on board tomorrow morning, until then let's just hope for the best!

I will say that this frame at 216 looks extremely odd and gives me cause to doubt this run:



That's the messiest looking setup I've seen in a while for our part of the world and I'd be very surprised if anything looking like this actually verified.

EDIT: Also, that low in the bottom-middle of the chart looks very like a tropical or subtropical system, seems very unlikely we'd have a system like that in the mid-Atlantic at this time of year?

YanSno

12z Ecm more realistic outcome based on NAO

Marengo

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Know why I prefer this forum vs netweather? Just looking at it now and they are pretty much having a panic attack and looking everywhere for something versus here where we are just enjoying the ride and actually having discussions about the outlook (while obvs looking where it could improve but you know what I mean!)

This is a great forum, it really caters for everyone. Granted a few more runs like that and it'll go quiet for a while but no doubt in a day or two we'll dust ourselves (snow!) down and get on with it.

Franz Von Peppercorn

All to play for. Get the cold in. It’s the trend that counts. Let’s not cherry pick. Half way through winter.

^

That’s what they are thinking on netweather.