Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Artane2002

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Let's be honest folks, if the models weren't unpredictable like this, weather forecasting would be boring as f*ck. Hopefully the ECM jumps on board tomorrow morning, until then let's just hope for the best!

I will say that this frame at 216 looks extremely odd and gives me cause to doubt this run:


That's the messiest looking setup I've seen in a while for our part of the world and I'd be very surprised if anything looking like this actually verified.

EDIT: Also, that low in the bottom-middle of the chart looks very like a tropical or subtropical system, seems very unlikely we'd have a system like that in the mid-Atlantic at this time of year?

Look at how tight the isobars are over Austria. It does look very messy as you say, I think we can put it aside for now and see what the 0z says.

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Which one ? They must have had a good few bins by this stage.

Sryan could i ask you a question off the top of your head? Any notable cold spells with predicted positive NAO?

If busy no hassle

YanSno

NAO has a huge effect on European weather.
what it is also telling us is the position and intensity of the Jet Stream. Chart below illustrates a +NAO. I can't remember a +NAO and a cold winter.

Villain

YanSno wrote: »

NAO has a huge effect on European weather.
what it is also telling us is the position and intensity of the Jet Stream. Chart below illustrates a +NAO. I can't remember a +NAO and a cold winter.

Heading back to at least neutral quickly enough though.

sryanbruen

Marengo wrote: »

Sryan could i ask you a question off the top of your head? Any notable cold spells with predicted positive NAO?

If busy no hassle

Not sure about predictions as I have very limited model watching years of experience to bounce off of but in terms of the actual NAO index during spells:

Well, I created this graph a few months back showcasing Winter CETs and NAO indexes.

As you can see, the vast majority of the cold Winters (and pretty much more than 95% of the severe ones) are in the -NAO bracket.

Franz Von Peppercorn

YanSno wrote: »

NAO has a huge effect on European weather.
what it is also telling us is the position and intensity of the Jet Stream. Chart below illustrates a +NAO. I can't remember a +NAO and a cold winter.

Obviously that image isn’t going to verify next week because most of Northern Europe will be under a cold pool. You are probably showing an extreme +nao there.

YanSno

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Obviously that image isn’t going to verify next week because most of Northern Europe will be under a cold pool. You are probably showing an extreme +nao there.

It's just a chart to illustrate a + that's all nothing to do with next week

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Not sure about predictions as I have very limited model watching years of experience to bounce off of but in terms of the actual NAO index during spells:

Well, I created this graph a few months back showcasing Winter CETs and NAO indexes.

As you can see, the vast majority of the cold Winters (and pretty much more than 95% of the severe ones) are in the -NAO bracket.

A cluster with a mean temp of 3C and NAO +2.

Hopefully the NAO will come back to neutral or negative all the same!

Thanks Sryan.

pad199207

Well well well ofcourse the ECM had to go and spoil it all.
Caution to those trying to dismiss the ECM tonight.

GFS and UKMO can be as juicy as they want, ECM is the top horse imo.

Marengo

pad199207 wrote: »

Well well well ofcourse the ECM had to go and spoil it all.
Caution to those trying to dismiss the ECM tonight.

GFS and UKMO can be as juicy as they want, ECM is the top horse imo.

A 00Z ECM like that would be a blow to the solar plexus..

I've said it twice before but the next ECM will be the most important of the winter so far:P

Marengo

Weather feels like proper winter. I've an exercise bike in the garage and the first eve i went in and it's proper see your breath cold..

Snowbiee21

Marengo wrote: »

Weather feels like proper winter. I've an exercise bike in the garage and the first eve i went in and it's proper see your breath cold..

Love you postes, nice and frequent , like the old Kermit

Franz Von Peppercorn

YanSno wrote: »

It's just a chart to illustrate a + that's all nothing to do with next week

maybe there are some westerly winds next week pushing south of Northern Europe leaving Northern European blocking in place. Clearly the +nao next week, if any, isn’t as strong as in your image.

I’m no expert, but I don’t think the nao is something that causes atmospheric effects but rather a description of those atmospheric effects. If we have strong westerlies we will have a +nao. If we have a strong +nao we have westerlies. It’s not an input like solar. It’s a tautology.

Therefore, and again I’m no expert, whatever the operational models are showing with regard to the nao is also what the operational charts are showing. The -nao ensembles on those graphs are also mapped one to one with specific ensemble chart outputs.

There can’t be a disconnect. If so why concentrate on that graph rather than the actual (and more visually) descriptive synoptic charts.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Marengo wrote: »

A 00Z ECM like that would be a blow to the solar plexus..

I've said it twice before but the next ECM will be the most important of the winter so far:P

You said it twice before about this next output or the last two?

Marengo

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Love you postes, nice and frequent , like the old Kermit

Thank you! Unfortunately i'm no Kermit:o I'm on a week's leave this week so posting a bit too much between farm jobs, driving etc.

Followed here for years. Since the Feb 2009 cold spell. Model watching back to the early 2000s. Good memory of events but very lacking in scientific knowledge.

Marengo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

You said it twice before about this next output or the last two?

I did Franz. Each one was the most important of the winter up to that point. So i'm not contradicting myself

Franz Von Peppercorn

Marengo wrote: »

I did Franz. Each one was the most important of the winter up to that point. So i'm not contradicting myself

Haha. I suppose it’s true. Like a cup run.

Mortelaro

Regarding the ECM or any models outer reaches,best not to be hung up on them (unless they're beautiful but even then),FI is FI after all
The last week in January will soon be sub 120 on models and the U.S northeaster will be resolved ,lots of cold knocking about in the majority of solutions, sunday/monday is crunch day, for evaluating prospects better tbh,what's not to like?

Marengo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Haha. I suppose it’s true. Like a cup run.

Exactly! Like we had a few good ECM runs. Now a bad one. Hopefully it was a blip. If it's followed by a similar one it won't look like a blip but the start of a trend. Here's hoping it's a blip.

Now Yan Sno and other posters think it's more likely to be a trend given a positive NAO. Sryan possibly agreeing.

Thankfully Villain isn't ruling out cold yet. Nacho hasn't posted today or Gaoth Laidir. KindomRushed was positive after the 12 GFS.

The experts are somewhat divided..

Rebelbrowser

pad199207 wrote: »

Well well well ofcourse the ECM had to go and spoil it all.
Caution to those trying to dismiss the ECM tonight.

GFS and UKMO can be as juicy as they want, ECM is the top horse imo.

But are the UKMO and GFS juicy for us? Not seeing it?

Marengo

Mortelero, Gonzo, Meteorite, Danno, High Def, SleetnSnow etc.. A lot of sound posters i've left out too..

pad199207

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

But are the UKMO and GFS juicy for us? Not seeing it?

In general

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

But are the UKMO and GFS juicy for us? Not seeing it?

Neither do I unless things move west which of course is very possible. Anything outside 72 hours is up in the air as far as I can see.

Liffey4A

Matt Hugo just said on Twitter that the 12Z ECM mean isn't out yet...

Artane2002

2014-15 had the most positive NAO on record if I'm reading correctly. That winter wasn't exactly horrible, the -8c in February and I remember a day with persistent snow in the morning that never stuck.

sryanbruen

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

But are the UKMO and GFS juicy for us? Not seeing it?

GFS 12z was pretty much the run of the winter for getting an extended cold spell as the blocking was akin to that of previous classic Winters. However, besides the blocking, the severe cold air that would be conducive to snow takes its sweet time reaching most of Ireland by Tuesday 29th/Wednesday 30th which was another backtrack (from Sunday 27th in the 06z).

Marengo

But basically after last year this sums up our feelings about Kermit..

Fizzytea

Long time lurker first time poster. Work for an agency subcontracting to HSE doing homecare. HSE sent out notices to clients/patients informing them of what will happen in any extreme weather during the winter. It also send out advice of how to stock up/prepare etc Considering we are in the middle of winter thought it odd why they are sending it out now and who are they advised by... will try and get a hold of a copy of said letter on Monday.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

2014-15 had the most positive NAO on record if I'm reading correctly. That winter wasn't exactly horrible, the -8c in February and I remember a day with persistent snow in the morning that never stuck.

2014-15 was very northwesterly driven with a displaced Azores High but was really windy at times especially in January. It was the sunniest Winter on record in Dublin with more than 250 hrs of sunshine through the season. Definitely one of my favourites due to that reason alone but still pales in comparison to 2010-11, 2009-10 and 2017-18. The only snow I had that Winter was March 1st/2nd.

triskelll

Hi all, great the see the Snow rolloer coaster back at full speed, but what are our chance's of getting decent snow fall this year(not exceptional like march) just a covering athlone area