Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sdanseo

triskelll wrote: »

Hi all, great the see the Snow rolloer coaster back at full speed, but what are our chance's of getting decent snow fall this year(not exceptional like march) just a covering athlone area

In general - Ireland - around 75% chance I would say. But asking when or where is like asking how long is a piece of string (and is frowned upon!)

Villain

ECM an outlier but big spread!

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1086357759694725121?s=21

KingJeremy

https://www.midlandweatherchannel.com/news/return-of-the-beast

Cathal Nolan (Midland Weather Channel) thoughts and predictions for the upcoming week

Mount Vesuvius

Yes ECM definitely a mild outlier. Here's Dublin 850hpa temps ensemble.
But yes a vast spread All the same.

Marengo

KingJeremy wrote: »

https://www.midlandweatherchannel.com/news/return-of-the-beast

Cathal Nolan (Midland Weather Channel) thoughts and predictions for the upcoming week

That's either very brave..or fool hardy

Marengo

At least practically all agree temps will be below average. 4c below the median.

So that would be down from 6-9C to 2-5C by day. Night and during precipitation probably colder.

KingJeremy

Marengo wrote: »

That's either very brave..or fool hardy

He’s usually fairly accurate so game on I say 🤞

Marengo

Reassuring seeing how much of an outlier 12z ECM was.

Is it too late to say 'the ECM is still having difficulties in forecasting the propagation of the SSW into the Troposphere'.

It sounds so impressive

SleetAndSnow

I just think it was a strange run in general as was pointed out here. Isobars over europe looks very strange like it glitched or something, the storm that moves towards us is strange, everything about it was just.. strange.

Mortelaro

I've been speaking to the hopping one with the green legs and do ya know what he's excited

sryanbruen

Marengo wrote: »

Exactly! Like we had a few good ECM runs. Now a bad one. Hopefully it was a blip. If it's followed by a similar one it won't look like a blip but the start of a trend. Here's hoping it's a blip.

Now Yan Sno and other posters think it's more likely to be a trend given a positive NAO. Sryan possibly agreeing.

Thankfully Villain isn't ruling out cold yet. Nacho hasn't posted today or Gaoth Laidir. KindomRushed was positive after the 12 GFS.

The experts are somewhat divided..

I like your posts, you know I do.

Just wish I could be more positive on the situation.

SleetAndSnow

Mortelaro wrote: »

I've been speaking to the hopping one with the green legs and do ya know what he's excited

United road

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I just think it was a strange run in general as was pointed out here. Isobars over europe looks very strange like it glitched or something, the storm that moves towards us is strange, everything about it was just.. strange.

I hope for you sake SleetAndSnow that certain boards members haven’t banned the word “strange” to add to the word “epic”

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I like your posts, you know I do.

Just wish I could be more positive on the situation.

You're grand Sryan. You can't go against your intuition and what you feel.

JCX BXC

Well it's the first time of the winter I've started paying attention to the models. Even northwesterlies are of some interest, in 2018 we actually got daytime snow that settled in West Clare out of a NW, and that's rare enough, so my faith has been renewed.

The models certainly aren't looking bad, and that ECM can be certainly thrown away as it's simply all over the place. It will be interesting to see what tomorrows updates look like, and whether the GFS pub run does anything interesting.

The amount of conversation here is encouraging.

SleetAndSnow

Glad to see you back looking at models JCX! Missed your input on stuff like this

Mortelaro

From Marco at the UK met office


https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1086376912375681025?s=19

Marengo

Go GFS!

Marengo

Now that is good low uppers over us all.. Pressure creeping towards 1015hpa.

Reckless Abandonment

Now thats an easterly

Marengo

It gets better by the frame. This run is Epic

Caveats: Just one run from GFS. Terms and conditions apply. However we can enjoy it. A week away.

SleetAndSnow

GFS looking good so far, precip charts at +186 showing streamers in the Irish sea? Or at least something there, models are never very good with that.

SleetAndSnow

Definite something happening in the Irish sea on this run, its showing plenty of precip in it. Much better then the 12z but more consistancy needed, still a model by model thing now.

sryanbruen

Now that's a beaut of a run. Just for fun.

Tuesday:



Saturday 26th:

Marengo

Lads if the ECM and UKMO came on board over night. We could dare to dream!

SleetAndSnow

Not sure if its a sign or not but ''We are the champions'' by Queen just came on when the good easterly appeared for me.. Oh well!

Needless to say this is the setup that we all want. It isn't called the 'Pub Run' for no reason though. 18z FI stuff rarely comes off IIRC from my limited knowledge! It just keeps going and going.

Reckless Abandonment

It's ok I guess

Mortelaro

sryanbruen wrote: »

Now that's a beaut of a run. Just for fun.

Tuesday:



Saturday 26th:

That's deep convective cold and unusually a Southeasterly
Out with the ruler and pen to check length of convection fetch
Looks shallowwe further up the east coast you go

Gonzo

that GFS run is quite something, now if only the other models would do the same. Probably sub-zero days and nights, certainly some heavy snow/hail showers, with a bit of luck some dinnerplate action.

Worried about what tomorrow will bring, that run was so good.

squarecircles

it takes something special to get the blue sub zero shading to spill out over the west coast.