Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Scubadevils

What an absolute rollercoaster... the emotional swings with these runs are incredible!

Snowbiee21

It’s a shame it’s the 18z the so called “pub” run , we need this trend to take its way into the 00z If a dream was to come a reality

screamer

I saw weird clouds this morning that were so low they were feeding down onto the ground in the fields...,,something strange is happening with the weather and I’ll not be surprised if we are in the freezer in the next few days.

Gonzo

Scubadevils wrote: »

What an absolute rollercoaster... the emotional swings with these runs are incredible!

This rollercoaster is causing a lot of motion sickness more than usual it has to be said. Hopefully a more gentle run from here on in full of happy and very excited passengers.

Scubadevils

Gonzo wrote: »

This rollercoaster is causing a lot of motion sickness more than usual it has to be said. Hopefully a more gentle run from here on in full of happy and very excited passengers.

Pretty sure we had similar flip/flops across the models in the run up to 2009 and 2010 - I reckon 2019 will be to 2018 what 2010 was to 2009, hopefully we don't have to wait as long then after...

JCX BXC

Beautiful beautiful run, but some part of me fears that it's just as outlandish as the ECM 12Z, just in the other direction. However, it's so good that at least we've wiggle room!

On a different and much more reliable note, it's looking like we could have some nice widespread snow on Tuesday morning before sunrise, the GFS certainly bullish, showing snow even over Galway bay. However, it looks very showery so could be hit and miss.

Billcarson

Scubadevils wrote: »

Gonzo wrote: »

This rollercoaster is causing a lot of motion sickness more than usual it has to be said. Hopefully a more gentle run from here on in full of happy and very excited passengers.

Pretty sure we had similar flip/flops across the models in the run up to 2009 and 2010 - I reckon 2019 will be to 2018 what 2010 was to 2009, hopefully we don't have to wait as long then after...

No where near as many flip flops as this. 2010 in particular worked down like clock work bar the odd wobble.

Scubadevils

Billcarson wrote: »

No where near as many flip flops as this. 2010 in particular worked down like clock work bar the odd wobble.

I can't say which but I certainly remember a few over the years - maybe they were the ones that ended in tears ultimately. I'm curious to look back now at the various years that worked out.

sryanbruen

I wasn't here on the model watching scene in 2010 but if I were to guess, I would think one reason why signals for cold were very strong that year was down to the fact that -NAO was really clear given the extreme nature of the North Atlantic tripole which favoured very -NAO.

This paper discusses the impacts of the North Atlantic SST anomalies as well as 2009-10 and November/December 2010 extreme Winter weather.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00104.1

Gonzo

dew points for Tuesday look decent:




Some potential for snow this Tuesday:


A rather chilly Tuesday afternoon:

Billcarson

You never know. Tuesday could surprise many of us. Probably not but.......

pad199207

No look at it again ;-)

JCX BXC

Ah stop, you'll give people on here heart failure!

TECH85

pad199207 wrote: »

No look at it again ;-)

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

pad199207

TECH85 wrote: »

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

No seriously look at it again ...

giveitholly

TECH85 wrote: »

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

Look again!

SleetAndSnow

TECH85 wrote: »

They must be confident somethings coming to issue that, even with all the flip flop charts we see

check the date on that

MJohnston

Ye should be banned for that!

TECH85

Haha , i re read it, and then deleted. You will give people heartattacks with that carry on ;-p

giveitholly

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Game on yipeeeeeee

Ah here

Snowbiee21

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Game on yipeeeeeee

Oh no he done me there

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

dew points for Tuesday look decent:

850hPa temps, dew points and thickness all look really nice for some of the good ol' sneachta in northern and eastern parts of the country on Tuesday on this GFS 18z run and many other previous runs. Precipitation would be another matter however.

SleetAndSnow

looks like the GFS/P is going for it now too, wonder how similar it could be/different. It was totally different for a few days but seems to be heading back to cold

Snowbiee21

sryanbruen wrote: »

850hPa temps, dew points and thickness all look really nice for some of the good ol' sneachta in northern and eastern parts of the country on Tuesday on this GFS 18z run and many other previous runs. Precipitation would be another matter however.

What are we expeciting from this on Tuesday , a few hour event ?

hatrickpatrick

Yis dirty FECKERS.

That was some of the best trolling I've seen in a while

pad199207

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Yis dirty FECKERS.

That was some of the best trolling I've seen in a while

;-) I screenshotted it last year and seen it in my gallery this evening and said I’d have some fun on boards while it’s after 11 and quiet after today’s madness :-P

sryanbruen

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

What are we expeciting from this on Tuesday , a few hour event ?

Nothing much if anything currently for Dublin. It's a northwesterly which will bring some scattered snow showers to various places but it'll be just a very cold and sunny Winter's day for here.

Working class heroes

pad199207 wrote: »

No look at it again ;-)

Ya fcuking bollox ya

Marengo

In fairness Met Eireann have come on board in a big way with a warning issued at midnight..:eek:

The longevity of this cold spell could be unprecedented since the winter of 1739-1740 or even back to the winter of Lorna Doone, 1683-84.

M.T. Cranium

At the moment, the model consensus is "you wanna go outside?"