Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

highdef

After reading through some of the replies to Pad199207's hilarious post, it goes to show that a lot of posters here fail to look at the little details. A good reader of the various weather model charts will probably have looked right through Pad199207's post and seen the date immediately and knew it was a joke.

Now it's easy to see who the amateurs are here!

Marengo

highdef wrote: »

After reading through she of the replies to Pad199207's hilarious post, it goes to show that a lot of posters here fail to look at the little details. A good reader of the various weather model charts will probably have looked right through Pad199207's post and seen the date immediately and knew it was a joke.

Now it's easy to see who the amateurs are here!

I think only one poster fell for it though:D

highdef

Marengo wrote: »

I think only one poster fell for it though:D

Definitely at least 2 fell for it... Possibly a third.

Marengo

highdef wrote: »

Definitely at least 2 fell for it... Possibly a third.

Yeah, just re read

Ultimate Seduction

Ouch!

nacho libre

Icon is bad news. The Azores high wants to pays us a visit.

Is Yan Sno running it?:P
Considering the Icon led the way last February, this cold spell is by no means a done deal.

snowstorm445

The rinse repeat downgrades this morning, UKMO high sinks over Ireland bringing in cold air to Southern Britain but not much for us, easterly doesn’t even get going on the GFS.

GEM looks good but then it’s not a particularly highly rated model.

nacho libre

The cold arrives in Ireland eventually on the GFS. It's just frustrating to see it be pushed back again.

YanSno

GFS 0Z more in line with ECM this morning. Last night GFS 18z was a cold outlier you could see it's trying to correct itself this morning expect more downgrade to follow during the day.

Mortelaro

Reading the U.S nws summaries,still a lot of uncertainty on the particulars of the overnight northeaster in the states and on what follows, so to me I'm waiting untill Monday morning now for a handle on what's coming as it has such a bearing on what happens here and their lack of confidence in any one run is quite telling if you get me?

To Alcohol

I think it’s just going to be one of those frustrating winters for snow and cold lovers. Just keeps getting pushed out ☹️

force eleven

If you've taken out dusted off your sled after yesterday evenings run, you may put it back in after this morning. I've not emotionally invested in a cold snowy spell thankfully, not that it might not happen, but too much volatilty beyond about four or five days forecasts to believe the incredible charts of yesterday. Much more realism this morning.

Mortelaro

To Alcohol wrote: »

I think it’s just going to be one of those frustrating winters for snow and cold lovers. Just keeps getting pushed out ☹️

Tbh,that's par for the course with a few noteable exceptions when introducing or trying to introduce the opposite weather to our climactic norm,it can take a week or 2 longer,it's very complicated,the very cold direction of travel seems more likely than unlikely to me even at this juncture so let's wait and see?

Mortelaro

Obviously here cold is looked for
But in uncertainty, many normal climate options are as likely too dependent on what actually happens stateside


https://twitter.com/TWOweather/status/1086532875946811392?s=19

Gaoth Laidir

As feared.

hatrickpatrick

:mad:

YanSno

Probabilities of an Icelandic High is still there given the fact that the Artic sea ice extent is the 4th lowest since 1979.When sea ice extent is reduced, there is more energy being absorbed, not reflected, by the arctic ocean, which creates high pressure over Iceland. These factors can make NAO very unreliable.

Marengo

After looking at this mornings models..

'Well, I woke up, 'Saturday' morning
With no way to hold my head, that didn't hurt
And the beer I had for breakfast wasn't bad
So I had one more for dessert
Then I fumbled in my closet
Through my clothes and found my cleanest, dirty shirts
Then I washed my face and combed my hair
And stumbled down the stairs to meet the day'

Rebelbrowser

Only fair to point out that in further FI this mornings GFS is superb for cold and that ties in with what a few of us were saying about this attempt falling but real cold coinciding with the turn of the month and staying for a while.

Also, much sooner than that, early next week could yet produce the goods for a few hours for many on here. In fact when hewhomustntbementioned returns on Monday he may well want to open a dedicated thread for that......

ZX7R

Some very dense fog about this morning, take care if traveling.

SeaBreezes

The charts won't verify until Kermit opens a thread, then it's game on.. :-)

Villain

Just like a rollercoaster, you have to go up to come down

More questions than answers though after last nights runs. ECM an outlier but the mean is certainly up so it doesn’t look good for now.

Also though as Rebelbrowser said FI looks interesting.

I think I’ll stick to my prediction of a few false dawns before the goods arrive. February may well deliver again.

Mortelaro

The NWS have confidence in all models this morning except the GFS as to their northeaster which could mean they've got the Atlantic profile fairly right with the obvious FI caveats as you move on
This would be bad news for coldies as the week goes on

I'll reserve judgement and refrain from comment untill Monday unless something extraordinary turns up
Confidence can shift in any outcome

Snowbiee21

Mortelaro wrote: »

The NWS have confidence in all models this morning except the GFS as to their northeaster which could mean they've got the Atlantic profile fairly right with the obvious FI caveats as you move on
This would be bad news for coldies as the week goes on

I'll reserve judgement and refrain from comment untill Monday unless something extraordinary turns up
Confidence can shift in any outcome

Ah feck, we’ve still Tuesday to play for and whole of feb and March, and if we can’t get what we want I’ll happily take snow in (march)

Marengo

GFS 6Z up to 9 days out keeping the cold furthur east and south.

We still have February!

Marengo

Hopefully all the 12Zs will take a turn for the better.

The models seems to be heading to both extremes the last 5 days or so. No in between, which is probably what we'll get.

pad199207

Marengo wrote: »

Hopefully all the 12Zs will take a turn for the better.

The models seems to be heading to both extremes the last 5 days or so. No in between, which is probably what we'll get.

Yeah waiting until the 12z today to really perhaps throw in the towel.

Would be an impressive win for the ICON

JCX BXC

That 06Z GFS is truly...awful!

It's kinda funny to see the difference between the 18Z GFS and the 06Z, completely different

Marengo

JCX BXC wrote: »

That 06Z GFS is truly...awful!

It's kinda funny to see the difference between the 18Z GFS and the 06Z, completely different

Ain't it ugly!

Snowbiee21

JCX BXC wrote: »

That 06Z GFS is truly...awful!

It's kinda funny to see the difference between the 18Z GFS and the 06Z, completely different

It is bad , but take a look at netweather. Comical to see there comments from last night to this morning. 100 to 0 quick lol