Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

sryanbruen

The NAO supports more of a scenario similar to the 06z.

Marengo

It's like the models are copying one another..

UKMO has a good one, GFS follows. ECM throws out a poor overnight run, it takes the GFS until 6Z to copy.

sryanbruen

Marengo wrote: »

It's like the models are copying one another..

UKMO has a good one, GFS follows. ECM throws out a poor overnight run, it takes the GFS until 6Z to copy.

Overused at this point but still holds true.

YanSno

As i expected 6z gfs correcting itself. Most members going for positive NAO to neutral. 12z will more than likely be similar

JCX BXC

Id put the 6Z GFS and the 18Z in the same bucket, they're both less reliable than the other runs.

And lads, remember, we're not picking the runs that suit what we're saying, we're taking an objective overall view.

sdanseo

The models are still so confused they could live in a mental hospital. I keep saying this: take everything they throw out beyond 96hrs as utter rubbish and look at the trends.

The ECM has gone from 4 good runs to 2 bad ones. The 00Z shows what looks like a polar low trying to sink over Europe and failing compared to bitter easterlies less than 48hrs ago.

Look for the overall picture. Although in the last 24-36hrs across most models this is not as cold, focusing on any individual run or set of runs (from the same time) is a pointless exercise currently.

In my view though, when the models struggle this much, something big is happening. Whether that's just the high level SSW and nothing more, or a sign of something else, is beyond my very limited talents.

Gonzo

I knew once we saw that fantastic run last night from the GFS that the only way forward is down, and we're certainly at a low point in the rollercoaster right now. Latest run brings mild muck into Ireland and most if not all of UK after next Wednesday then a typical Atlantic flow. Recently it seems like the poor runs are starting to outnumber the good ones which isn't encouraging, the positive NAO also keeping the Atlantic with it's crosshairs upon us.

pad199207

If the 12z revert back to the cold/very cold week ahead then I’ll be gobsmacked

I think the ICON already hinted at that in the 06z

highdef

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah waiting until the 12z today to really perhaps throw in the towel.

Would be an impressive win for the ICON

The latest frames on the ICON that's rolling out show the high pressure to the west of Iberia (Azores high) weakening. The last run had pressure steady and higher than the latest forecast.

Secondly, the area of high pressure between Greenland and north of Scandinavia is that bit higher in pressure and these heights are slowly moving south. Will be interesting if the progress continues and also to see if the pressure rises any further.

Thirdly, there's not too much difference with the state of, or the position of the low pressure in the Med, centered over northern Italy. In the latest run, it appears to be ever so slightly further east and is seems to have slightly colder air contained within in. Will be interesting to see how that low progresses as it's a key ingredient in the recipe for white gold.

I'm in now way convinced that we'll be seeing the snow. I just try look at the charts and (most of the time) try keep my emotions at bay.

Gonzo

highdef wrote: »

I'm in now way convinced that we'll be seeing the snow. I just try look at the charts and (most of the time) try keep my emotions at bay.

I have to admit it's starting to look less and less certain for several reasons.

The models are actually getting worse, they are swinging even more wildly now than they were a few days ago and arriving at a poor outcome more often. We have so many different outcomes over the past 48 hours from different models it's difficult to keep track of them all.

There are too many factors keeping the blocking from impacting our little island.

The positive NAO refusing to go negative is a big factor, its keeping the Atlantic alive.

The cold keeps getting pushed back, a very familiar sign for us in this part of Europe.

High pressures too close to Ireland and not moving into Greenland.

Maybe if we resolve all these problems by 1st of February, then maybe we are onto something for February. We could be looking at more snowfest charts by this evening, and if so, why should I get really excited and suddenly believe them?

diceyd

What times do the models roll out at?

sryanbruen

diceyd wrote: »

What times do the models roll out at?

Check out the following thread:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057916846

Rebelbrowser

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

It is bad , but take a look at netweather. Comical to see there comments from last night to this morning. 100 to 0 quick lol

The 12z suite yesterday never said what they suggested it said. Delusion upon delusion over on NW

Billcarson

The second half of Jan curse strikes again. Don't know what it is but since the 80s we just can't seem to get a good and proper cold and snowy spell during the second half of Jan. Perhaps it's a case of something good arriving next month instead.

Marengo

Billcarson wrote: »

The second half of Jan curse strikes again. Don't know what it is but since the 80s we just can't seem to get a good and proper cold and snowy spell during the second half of Jan. Perhaps it's a case of something good arriving next month instead.

Agree. Real peak winter when the lowest ever temp was recorded. -19.1C Jan 18/19 1881.

Marengo

Suppose, as others said, what 12Z brings will be interesting.

Billcarson

Marengo wrote: »

Billcarson wrote: »

The second half of Jan curse strikes again. Don't know what it is but since the 80s we just can't seem to get a good and proper cold and snowy spell during the second half of Jan. Perhaps it's a case of something good arriving next month instead.

Agree. Real peak winter when the lowest ever temp was recorded. -19.1C Jan 18/19 1881.

Yes and taking Jan as a whole the last great cold spell in Jan was first half of Jan 2010. Sad .

Marengo

Billcarson wrote: »

Yes and taking Jan as a whole the last great cold spell in Jan was first half of Jan 2010. Sad .

August being a poor/average summer month is a trend too.

sryanbruen

January 2013 was close to a decent cold spell for Ireland but unfortunately due to our geography and how pressure patterns evolved, we were too far west. The UK got some lovely Winter days then. Alls I remember here was a 5 minute flurry on the 22nd, otherwise just cold, damp and dark much like the following March which you know my opinion on by this stage.

Xenji

sryanbruen wrote: »

January 2013 was close to a decent cold spell for Ireland but unfortunately due to our geography and how pressure patterns evolved, we were too far west. The UK got some lovely Winter days then. Alls I remember here was a 5 minute flurry on the 22nd, otherwise just cold, damp and dark much like the following March which you know my opinion on by this stage.

I had a few meetings over in London that January, there was great snowfall from about the 17th to the 20th.

Strangegravy

Whatever happens, in a more reliable time frame, Monday night / Tuesday early looks very promising for the lamp post watching crew...

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

I have to admit it's starting to look less and less certain for several reasons.

The models are actually getting worse, they are swinging even more wildly now than they were a few days ago and arriving at a poor outcome more often. We have so many different outcomes over the past 48 hours from different models it's difficult to keep track of them all.

There are too many factors keeping the blocking from impacting our little island.

The positive NAO refusing to go negative is a big factor, its keeping the Atlantic alive.

The cold keeps getting pushed back, a very familiar sign for us in this part of Europe.

High pressures too close to Ireland and not moving into Greenland.

Maybe if we resolve all these problems by 1st of February, then maybe we are onto something for February. We could be looking at more snowfest charts by this evening, and if so, why should I get really excited and suddenly believe them?

Well said Gonzo. Sums up my and probably many others thoughts about our unfortunate location in the NH.

Pangea

Took a walk up to the hills here in SW Donegal, loads of snow about 5 inches..
It didn't snow anything like that last year so 2019 is already trumping that. Four years to the very day there was heavy snow here too.

Little snowy old me

I said I wouldn't log on for a few days but the reality is that the situation regarding snow and cold has diminished so quickly that I felt obliged to log on. See how folk are coping. It's very disappointing. Was looking forward to some decent cold and a snowfall. I am not looking for Emma 2 but just a few days of snow cover. It really is game over. I can see the muck of February and March already. The dampness and that horrible grey glumness. The same temperature day and night. Awful.

scottigael

Is the snow for tuesday called off as well?

m17

Tuam Co galway 19/01/19 11.35 temperature 4°C

Marengo

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I said I wouldn't log on for a few days but the reality is that the situation regarding snow and cold has diminished so quickly that I felt obliged to log on. See how folk are coping. It's very disappointing. Was looking forward to some decent cold and a snowfall. I am not looking for Emma 2 but just a few days of snow cover. It really is game over. I can see the muck of February and March already. The dampness and that horrible grey glumness. The same temperature day and night. Awful.

The eternal optpmist:D

YanSno

Ok am more confident that we will have an Icelandic hp development soon, maybe by next weekend that's in relation with today's index. So i would expect 12z this afternoon to be a cold one. Now it depends where the hp sits could be on the cool dry side or cold side.

KingJeremy

Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

sryanbruen

KingJeremy wrote: »

Could anyone tell me what is meant by “lamp post watching”?

Staying up all night. Have your eyes firmly on the lamp post hoping to see the white gold fall in that orange glow. Only snowbie freaks like myself do it because we have no life .