Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

An Ri rua

esposito wrote: »

squarecircles wrote: »

mild,moist evening in west mayo,birds chirping,the daffodils and marigolds might survive into february.


really was a pathetic winter.

Was? It ain’t over by a long shot. February can often deliver.

But yes so far this winter has been pathetic and very disappointing after so much promise. Let’s see what Feb brings

In Ireland, it ain't over til the mini -Kermits seek new pastures, and they're not even a twinkle in Kermie's eye yet..

Billcarson

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

My money is on ECM to go cold again. Really hope so...

That would be a Tyson fury job lol. Down and out but somehow gets back up off the canvas ,if that happens.

Andrew00

Well that’s that then.

What a s*ite winter. Even if there is a small bit of cold weather it won’t come for another few weeks. Sure thats no good. We wanted snow for next week now it’s looking milder than average

Gaoth Laidir

Gonzo wrote: »

What's very surprising is today, the NAO is forecast to go negative in the final days of January. This could impact things back in our favour.

That's just because of the amplification of the Azores ridge northwards, but it doesn't get too far.

Lucreto

May be the weather charts are holding back until the return of the frog.

Once he returns everything will begin to fall into place.

Reckless Abandonment

Early stages look better, lets see where this goes

Reckless Abandonment

And we finish with this our own piece of the vortex

SeaBreezes

Oh my good god I'm not able....

Rebelbrowser

Next Tuesday seems to have -8s over nearly the whole country too. A standalone "event" like that would usually have its own thread by now.

SeaBreezes

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Next Tuesday seems to have -8s over nearly the whole country too. A standalone "event" like that would usually have its own thread by now.

Waiting for Kermit ..

mickger844posts

I just laughed out loud at the ECM. Talk about a roller coaster. Proves that everything is still on the table. Tuesday looking interesting to say the least

JCX BXC

That is an interesting ECM. Nothing more to say about that!

The fact that the models are still so all over the place tells us only one thing, we simply don't know whether it'll stay mild or get cold!

sryanbruen

All I'll say is that there was more "freezing runs" in this evening's GEFS than I've seen since this rollercoaster began. However, the models continue to be all over the place no matter which way you put or look at it.

Harry Palmr

It's a glancing blow at most as far as I can tell. No doubt Met Eirann will issue some yellow warnings that annoy everyone!

RobertKK

I'm just lamppost watching...snow in Finland...

https://www.datapartner.fi/fi/web-kamera

YanSno

Nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Tuesday and Wednesday looks wintry after that Hp take charge for a day or 2 then basically zonal. I still think there is possibilities of an Icelandic hp, could be last few days in January / first week of February

irishrover99

I have to hand it to the lot of you’s.
The most optimistic bunch I’ve ever seen online 😀😀

Andrew00

irishrover99 wrote: »

I have to hand it to the lot of you’s.
The most optimistic bunch I’ve ever seen online 😀😀

There’s nothing really to be positive about, I don’t know why they’re so optimistic. They’re now posting charts with cold weather on them for 3 weeks time, which by then will turn into Atlantic crap

JanuarySnowstor

In kermits absence just opened a thread for Tuesday

Gonzo

still looking cold on Tuesday and into Wednesday, after that it turns milder then a colder trend starts again.



Still potential for snow on Tuesday for some:



Temps look ok for snow in places, probably more marginal along eastern coastal counties:



Dew Points just about under 0C, so could be a close one.

sryanbruen

Andrew00 wrote: »

There’s nothing really to be positive about, I don’t know why they’re so optimistic. They’re now posting charts with cold weather on them for 3 weeks time, which by then will turn into Atlantic crap

Pessimistic comments are not nice to read especially when one wakes up or comes home from work/school. They can be very irritating and downright depressing.

Equally, hype or extremely optimistic comments can be irritating in the same way.

nacho libre

I doubt there will be cold in three weeks, given the stratospheric polar vortex has recovered and that will eventually work it ways down to the troposheric profile bringing it back to normal. We have about a three week window or less for some sort of cold spell, before it likely gets milder and wet to see out February. There is a chance of more prolonged wintry weather in the first week or two of February, but i would not be highly confident of that given this SSW has been mainly a bust. Talk of our location doesn't really matter when you get a SSW similar to 2018, which had a QTR due to speedy downwelling past 100 hpa, 200 hpa , 300 hapa and so on. We unfortunately have not seen that with this SSW, so
as a consequence we are left with the high in the Atlantic that can only meander close by or topple over us because of that.
In the lead up to last years cold period, there was a slight wobble from the ECM, but most models were consistent in showing a good Easterly influence. The Icon was among the first to suggest it. It once again seems to have nailed the pattern for the last weeks of January.

Snowbiee21

New York are facing 10c tomorrow and -8c Monday , crazy. An 18c change in a matter of 24 hrs

Loughc

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

In kermits absence just opened a thread for Tuesday

Am I missing something I’m only seeing 16% chance of snow next week

Snowbiee21

Loughc wrote: »

Am I missing something I’m only seeing 16% chance of snow next week

Accuweather at its finest?

Loughc

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Accuweather at its finest?

You know it haha.

Snowbiee21

Loughc wrote: »

You know it haha

Avoid

SleetAndSnow

Just back, was out all evening!

Just looked at the models and honestly, all is still to play for even out to day 3, where the ECM seemed to be an outlier in the ensembles! The models have no idea what is going on, icon 18z is showing more cold all of a sudden then it has and gfs/p looks to be again aswell. Really all still to play for. ATM I dontr think you can trust beyond 72hrs!

Cork Boy 53

At this point I would settle for clear skies for the lunar eclipse early Monday morning. Hopefully the weather will play ball.

SeaBreezes

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Just back, was out all evening!

Just looked at the models and honestly, all is still to play for even out to day 3, where the ECM seemed to be an outlier in the ensembles! The models have no idea what is going on, icon 18z is showing more cold all of a sudden then it has and gfs/p looks to be again aswell. Really all still to play for. ATM I dontr think you can trust beyond 72hrs!

ICON tends to see the trends first.. glad it's getting onboard