Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

SleetAndSnow

SeaBreezes wrote: »

ICON tends to see the trends first.. glad it's getting onboard

Not fully onboard yet but baby steps.. will have to see how the 0z goes first. Could (will) be all different again!

Marengo

What a lovely St. Brigid's Day:)

Very good GFS 18Z run from day 9 on.

Gonzo

latest ensemble run for Dublin shows that we still have alot to play for past the 25th of January.

On Tuesday the temperature gets briefly down to -9 at 850 hPA, which would bring temps at ground level close to freezing. Sharp rise in temperatures between Wednesday and next Saturday, followed by a quick lowering in temperatures from the 25th.

Lots of precipitation (spikes at bottom of chart) from the 25th with some very chilly runs. Most members hitting the -8 mark after the 25th of January with a few falling into the -10 to -13 range which is freezer territory.

Marengo

Great we're still in the game for the very last days of January and February. Nice to see a similar evolution at day 9 and 10 with the GFS and ECM. Mid atlantic blocking and a Greenland high.

After being at the bottom of the rollercoaster, and nearly falling off, with the 12Z GFS, i'll take that gladly. That run looked like giving mid teen temperatures!

If cold arrived around 1st of February we're well in winter territory..should be no dripping roofs between heavy snowfall like last March:D

Marengo

I love the old English saying for February.. 'as the days grow longer the cold grows stronger'

km79

It always seems to be a week away
This pleases me

Marengo

km79 wrote: »

It always seems to be a week away
This pleases me

I suppose it's better than a fortnight!

It's actually very seldom, in any winter, that there isn't something to look at in FI in some model

The odd time, like the GFS 12Z the run is almost totally mild. But very seldom you'll get a day with every model giving no glimmer of hope for cold.

esposito

For what it’s worth 06Z GFS is showing a Greenland High for the last few days of January. Large pinch of salt.... but you never know

Oscar Bravo

Lovely morning here in Castlebar.plenty of sunshine and light winds.

hatrickpatrick

Angry skull on the FV3... Who pissed off the Night King?

PokeHerKing

Are clear skies still forecast tonight/tomorrow for the lunar eclipse folks?

Don't want to set the alarm to look at cloud.

YanSno

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Are clear skies still forecast tonight/tomorrow for the lunar eclipse folks?

Don't want to set the alarm to look at cloud.

It will be dry and partly cloudy. You could catch it in a break, that's what am hoping for

Oscar Bravo

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Are clear skies still forecast tonight/tomorrow for the lunar eclipse folks?

Don't want to set the alarm to look at cloud.

Cloud increasing in the west later in the night.otherwise conditions looking good.

Mortelaro

Latest UK met office monthly outlook going for more likely north and east winds in the 2 week period 4 to 18 February
Here it is for what it's worth


UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:
Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

Updated: 01:50 on Sun 20 Jan 2019 GMT

PokeHerKing

Mortelaro wrote:

Here it is for what it's worth

It's really not worth much, changes as much as the models.

m17

Tuam Co galway 20/01/19 15.46 temperature 6°C

m17

Milltown co galway 20/01/19 16.20 temperature 6°C

m17

Milltown co galway 20/01/19 16.33 temperature 5°C

KingJeremy

As per Midland Weather Channel for snowfall expected between Monday night and Wednesday morning 🀞ðŸ™

JCX BXC

KingJeremy wrote: »

As per Midland Weather Channel for snowfall expected between Monday night and Wednesday morning 🀞ðŸ™

If only they were credible.

Monkeynut

Swords 17:00
Moon is Very big

Gonzo

Today seems obvious that snow watchers in the UK are even more upset over the failed Easterly than we are, they were certainly closer to magic compared to us, particularly those in the east and south-east UK.

There is still hints at colder conditions building from next Sunday, but this time around it appears that a much more cautious approach will be taken.

We probably will get a cold spell with snow within the next 4 weeks, but it may not be an extreme one to remember.

The next 7 days will be all about searching for the next potential snow spell, hopefully the models will have an easier time with it and that we at least get a few cold and snowy days out of it.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

Today seems obvious that snow watchers in the UK are even more upset over the failed Easterly than we are, they were certainly closer to magic compared to us, particularly those in the east and south-east UK.

There is still hints at colder conditions building from next Sunday, but this time around it appears that a much more cautious approach will be taken.

We probably will get a cold spell with snow within the next 4 weeks, but it may not be an extreme one to remember.

The next 7 days will be all about searching for the next potential snow spell, hopefully the models will have an easier time with it and that we at least get a few cold and snowy days out of it.

I’d be happy with a few days of snow showers on a NE or E wind followed by dry cold days and severe frosty nights

Reckless Abandonment

esposito wrote: »

I’d be happy with a few days of snow showers on a NE or E wind followed by dry cold days and severe frosty nights

I hear you. But the fear is all well get is cold rain and damp grey sky's.

Snowbiee21

How are 12z going

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

I’d be happy with a few days of snow showers on a NE or E wind followed by dry cold days and severe frosty nights

I've a feeling you will get your wish. This could also easily happen in March. I have a feeling we won't be having many spring like days in March. So far we've only had 1 grass frost this Winter and all the signs are towards colder than average conditions for the foreseeable future. A delayed Spring could become a reality this year.

I know most people including myself want snow within the next 4 weeks, but there is still potential for lying snow over the next 8 to 9 weeks. On rare occasions you can still get a dumping in April.

Gonzo

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

How are 12z going

GFS brings the cold forward from next Sunday to early Saturday morning.

A cool northwesterly next Saturday with potential for wintry showers, this turns into a northerly on Sunday 27th and Monday 28th.

Back to a very temporary milder on Tuesday 29th as the Atlantic tries to bring milder air across Ireland but this gets cut off with another shot of cold diving from the north-west later on the same day. This turns into a north-easterly by 31st of January, then a messy and uncertain looking continuation of cold into the first few days of February. Signs of Atlantic fighting a battle by February 5th.

It looks cold, but certainly not as cold as the failed easterly. Certainly potential for sleet and snow showers.

KingJeremy

JCX BXC wrote: »

If only they were credible.

I guess he has the same charts as everyone else and is making best guess....same as everyone else on here! We can but hope and nothing wrong with a bit of positivity. I’m not expecting much, but a little dusting would be nice to wake to Tuesday morning.

JCX BXC

KingJeremy wrote: »

I guess he has the same charts as everyone else and is making best guess....same as everyone else on here! We can but hope and nothing wrong with a bit of positivity. I’m not expecting much, but a little dusting would be nice to wake to Tuesday morning.

I'd say it's more along the lines of its advantageous for such outlets to ramp up the weather a little. Goldfish memory and general ignorance is rampant on social media. Here we seem to have a good system whereby credibility is more important.

KingJeremy

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'd say it's more along the lines of its advantageous for such outlets to ramp up the weather a little. Goldfish memory and general ignorance is rampant on social media. Here we seem to have a good system whereby credibility is more important.

You have a point. Mother Nature will bring what she wants when she wants. Time will tell...but I’m still going to bed Monday night with a little bit of excitement for what the morning may bring