ISME predict a recession in Ireland within the next two years

divillybit

While I'm not a fan of Ciara Kelly on Newstalk , she did have an interesting interview today with Neil McDonnell of
ISME, the Irish Small and Medium enterprise lobby group. Near the end of the interview he confidently predicted Ireland will be in recession within "the next year and a half to two years max". Unfortunately the presenter didnt press McDonnell further on his prediction and what the causes of the next recession but Brexit is the big black cloud on the horizon. Has Ireland's economic recovery peaked already?

https://www.newstalk.com/podcasts/Lunchtime_Live/Highlights_from_Lunchtime_Live/231710/Ireland_are_increasing_wages_at_fastest_pace_in_Europe

The spiraling house prices and massive increases in rent will suck all the spare cash out of the economy. We have learned nothing from the pre 2008 property boom and everything that came with that.


Also, Ireland has third-highest government debt per capita (out of 49 countries) behind only Japan and USA.

dxhound2005

Deleted User wrote: »

The spiraling house prices and massive increases in rent will suck all the spare cash out of the economy. We have learned nothing from the pre 2008 property boom and everything that came with that.

Except the new regulations on borrowing designed to avoid the negative equity which followed the last boom, is a lesson learned. They are actually old regulations which fell out of favour for a while. Negative equity was never a feature of previous recessions, and it should not be part of the next one.

It doesn't take any expertise to know that capitalism is a system of recurring boom and bust.

Silentcorner

I heard a good one about economists a number of years ago..."Economists are like One Eyed Javelin throwers...they hit their mark every now and again but they keep everyone on their toes"...of course there is a recession coming...there always is.

TheValeyard

Ah, lovely.

Its been a while. Ive missed all the pessimism.

pleas advice

Didn't we call the last one Stephen? What'll we call this one?

TheValeyard

pleas advice wrote: »

Didn't we call the last one Stephen? What'll we call this one?

How about Ted.

ygolometsipe

I hope they don't predict a riot.

Larbre34

ISME's default position is to whinge and moan, heck even through the Tiger years Mark Fielding used to find something to give off about on a weekly basis.

The fact I haven't noticed any utterances from ISME in a good long while is very telling. The fact is that organisations like ISME have become largely irrelevant. Their membership consists of yesterday's commerce, sectors that are past it. The real engine are the young entrepreneurs, the ones developing niches where they didnt exist before. These guys arent interested in golf classics and dinner dances.

Yes Brexit will be a challenge, but they didnt need that lad to tell us something everyone knows. The smart money is still on it never happening.

NOVA MCMXCIV

I saw this title and read: ISIS predict a recession in Ireland within the next two years.

Gonna take a break now...

Vela

I am so fcuking tired that I thought that said "ISIS predict" and then saw "Ireland" and nearly had a heart attack.

Yup.

Ubbquittious

18months to 3 years seems to be the word on the street these days.


Recessions are a strange thing. If everyone collectively decides we're not doing the recession then it won't happen. Every recession is completely self-inflicted. People just need to keep buying the right stuff at the same pace they always have and the recession won't happen

Grayson

Ubbquittious wrote: »

18months to 3 years seems to be the word on the street these days.


Recessions are a strange thing. If everyone collectively decides we're not doing the recession then it won't happen. Every recession is completely self-inflicted. People just need to keep buying the right stuff at the same pace they always have and the recession won't happen

To be fair the next one will be inflicted by the UK. If there's a hard Brexit we'll be the worst hit in the EU.

uck51js9zml2yt

Ubbquittious wrote: »

18months to 3 years seems to be the word on the street these days.


Recessions are a strange thing. If everyone collectively decides we're not doing the recession then it won't happen. Every recession is completely self-inflicted. People just need to keep buying the right stuff at the same pace they always have and the recession won't happen

It's a very simplistic way of looking at it.
Our last one was hugely influenced by outside sources and had nothing to do with not buying that packet of Rolo.

sbsquarepants

Silentcorner wrote: »

I heard a good one about economists a number of years ago..."Economists are like One Eyed Javelin throwers...they hit their mark every now and again but they keep everyone on their toes"...of course there is a recession coming...there always is.

I read before that the definition of an economist is someone who can tell you tomorrow exactly why whatever they predicted yesterday didn't happen.

Now, I fully understand that different people might interpret data slightly differently....but still! It seems to me that the average economist is no better at predicting future economic events than anybody else basically guessing.

If economists really knew what way currencies would move for example - they'd be George Soros's not David McWilliams's:D

Maxwell Angry Swimsuit

Maxwell Angry Swimsuit wrote: »

It's a very simplistic way of looking at it.
Our last one was hugely influenced by outside sources and had nothing to do with not buying that packet of Rolo.

Influenced by outside sources?

Every man and his dog 'getting on the property ladder', 'investing' in rental properties and all that nonsense.

That was all now outside sources, was it?

That kind of crap is what led people to convince themselves they weren't responsible in part for ****ing things up the last time 'round.

It's not simplistic to cut through all the crap and just look at the simple, cold, hard fact; people got greedy, spent money they didn't have and never would have, took money they couldn't afford to pay back and in the process buggered their generation, their childrens generation and their grandchildrens generation with the resulting national debt.

Nothing 'outside sources' about it. Nobody forced anyone to do it.

Accept no excuses. Make no excuses.

sbsquarepants

JayZeus wrote: »

It's not simplistic to cut through all the crap and just look at the simple, cold, hard fact; people got greedy, spent money they didn't have and never would have, took money they couldn't afford to pay back and in the process buggered their generation, their childrens generation and their grandchildrens generation with the resulting national debt.

Let's not be melodramatic.

Twice in the past 100 years the world has been flattened by global war. That didn't bugger 3 generations.

We've a few bob to pay back, not a planet to rebuild. It's a fair few bob, i'll give you that much, but a few bob is still all it is.

Also you may have noticed that at the same time things went tits up around here, they kind of went tits up in a lot of other places. Of course outside events had a lot to do with it. That doesn't mean we didn't have a part to play, but it wasn't just a home grown fiasco.

lawred2

Murray TheDemonic TalkingSkull wrote: »

Ah, lovely.

Its been a while. Ive missed all the pessimism.

same

I loved the endless navel gazing and blame games.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

The spiraling house prices and massive increases in rent will suck all the spare cash out of the economy. We have learned nothing from the pre 2008 property boom and everything that came with that.


Also, Ireland has third-highest government debt per capita (out of 49 countries) behind only Japan and USA.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/private-debt-to-gdp

We also have the 2nd highest Private debt to GDP ratio in the world, behind only tiny Luxembourg and signifcantly ahead of even low-population third placed Iceland. What makes us think we are so special, that we can have such artificially high living standards without having to ever pay for them? This whole set-up is eventually going to crash even worse than last time around.

Ubbquittious

Maxwell Angry Swimsuit wrote: »

It's a very simplistic way of looking at it.
Our last one was hugely influenced by outside sources and had nothing to do with not buying that packet of Rolo.

Only because we allowed them to influence us. People got into a panic, people believed things were bad and that they were supposed to stay bad for a while so they stayed at home and didn't spend much. Loads of countries are far more detached from the international US-driven boom & bust cycle than we are but being detached from that and leprechaun economics are mutually exclusive

Fr Tod Umptious

Deleted User wrote: »

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/private-debt-to-gdp

We also have the 2nd highest Private debt to GDP ratio in the world, behind only tiny Luxembourg and signifcantly ahead of even low-population third placed Iceland. What makes us think we are so special, that we can have such artificially high living standards without having to ever pay for them? This whole set-up is eventually going to crash even worse than last time around.

The last time we had a crash was because supply meet demand in the housing market and at the same time interest rates rose because inflation was on the way up, mainly in part to a stronger Germany economy.

This time is different, there is no credit bubble fueling the housing market. Property prices are increasing due to a lack of supply. Central Bank rules determine that credit cannot get out of hand.

But interest rates have been historically low due to low inflation (and possibly deflation) over the past decade.

That is expected to change as inflation starts to hit and exceed the 2% ECB mark.

Once that is reached or exceeded then interest rates will rise.

And this will have an effect on the private debt the poster above mentions.

People will feel that pinch and thus will have less money in the pockets to spend, thus resulting in a contraction in the economy.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The last time we had a crash was because supply meet demand in the housing market and at the same time interest rates rose because inflation was on the way up, mainly in part to a stronger Germany economy.

This time is different, there is no credit bubble fueling the housing market. Property prices are increasing due to a lack of supply. Central Bank rules determine that credit cannot get out of hand.

But interest rates have been historically low due to low inflation (and possibly deflation) over the past decade.

That is expected to change as inflation starts to hit and exceed the 2% ECB mark.

Once that is reached or exceeded then interest rates will rise.

And this will have an effect on the private debt the poster above mentions.

People will feel that pinch and thus will have less money in the pockets to spend, thus resulting in a contraction in the economy.

You're ignoring the other side of inflation. As inflation increases so should wages. Also a healthy dose of inflation eats into the real value of debt, for example a mortgage. So while you're payments go up your salary goes up in line and the true value of your debt decreases.

McCrack

I hope so

Very hard to get a restaurant booking thesedays

Ubbquittious

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

This time is different, there is no credit bubble fueling the housing market. Property prices are increasing due to a lack of supply. Central Bank rules determine that credit cannot get out of hand.

There is a credit bubble, just hasn't reached the silly levels seen during the heady days of the celtic tiger

PlaneSpeeking

Ubbquittious wrote: »

There is a credit bubble, just hasn't reached the silly levels seen during the heady days of the celtic tiger

When you have banks offering loans for tree houses and "a first away game" plus an annoying hipster couple throwing out a perfectly good sofa to buy something so uncomfortable looking a dominatrix could use it - you know people are losing the run of themselves again.

Edgware

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The last time we had a crash was because supply meet demand in the housing market and at the same time interest rates rose because inflation was on the way up, mainly in part to a stronger Germany economy.

This time is different, there is no credit bubble fueling the housing market. Property prices are increasing due to a lack of supply. Central Bank rules determine that credit cannot get out of hand.

But interest rates have been historically low due to low inflation (and possibly deflation) over the past decade.

That is expected to change as inflation starts to hit and exceed the 2% ECB mark.

Once that is reached or exceeded then interest rates will rise.

And this will have an effect on the private debt the poster above mentions.

People will feel that pinch and thus will have less money in the pockets to spend, thus resulting in a contraction in the economy.

Sure aren't we all partying.
The best small country in the world for partying

uch

Must be nearly time for another Public service Bashing so