Border Poll discussion

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

How about a UI but what was formerly NI governs itself like Scotland does now?

Why is everything designed so we don't offend/discommode unionism?

I asked downcow and was ignored, what is unionism prepared to compromise/accomodate if a UI would come to pass by majority.
They accepted all this in the GFA

downcow

Dytalus wrote: »

...why?

At the moment the NI budget shortfall is shored up by Westminster because it's part of the UK. A United Ireland would see it helped by Ireland because...well it'd be part of Ireland.

If it was part of neither, why would either be obliged to help out? The UK, potentially, due current commitments it might decide to carry on for a transition period. But why would the Republic help shore up a foreign state? We're not doing so now, after all.

Yea, I suppose it just depends how much Irish people want Britian out of Ireland. My sense is most couldn't care less.
Most NI people are happy with status quo in UK and potentially there could be a majority gathered up for a more independent NI, but with ongoing support.
We could even potentially build in reunification in say 200 years - a bit like Hong Kong, as a sweetner to ROI.

But you are right. I wouldn't do it if I was you. I guess we are destained to remain part of UK for generations - thankfully

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

Yea, I suppose it just depends how much Irish people want Britian out of Ireland. My sense is most couldn't care less.
Most NI people are happy with status quo in UK and potentially there could be a majority gathered up for a more independent NI, but with ongoing support.
We could even potentially build in reunification in say 200 years - a bit like Hong Kong, as a sweetner to ROI.

But you are right. I wouldn't do it if I was you. I guess we are destained to remain part of UK for generations - thankfully

If the English are prepared to get out of the EU because it costs then GB£10 billion a year, that they will not want to get out of NI that costs the GB£10 billion a year.

Dream on. When the downside of Brexit begins to bite, where will the cuts be deepest?

murphaph

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well the reality is, you don't care about some citizens,- once the money goes so high.

What other opinion am I supposed to have here? I know you are probably gonna tell me that you care first about x, y, z, but it doesn't negate the fact that you are casting aside some.

Sorry that's a ridiculous post. You are using deliberately emotive language to elicit a response.

Let me turn the tables and see how you like it.

You are prepared to cast aside children needing operations and make them wait because you would rather spend the limited funds on erasing a border between two EU member states.

You might like to pretend there's an unlimited supply of money to fund unification but that is devoid of reality. It will cost money and that money will come from things that tug at the heartstrings too.

You'd swear all the nationalists in the north were clamouring to cross the border and I was standing there booting them in the face the way you phrased your post.

murphaph

RobMc59 wrote: »

How about a UI but what was formerly NI governs itself like Scotland does now?

I'd be in favour of regional parliaments with the county councils being abolished and replaced with larger administrative areas. There is no joined up thinking when it comes to planning for example. Lots of money wasted in HR departments etc. being replicated dozens of times. I wouldn't slavishly follow the 1922 border either. Donegal would surely belong in the "Northern regional assembly".

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why is everything designed so we don't offend/discommode unionism?

I asked downcow and was ignored, what is unionism prepared to compromise/accomodate if a UI would come to pass by majority.
They accepted all this in the GFA

If i understand your question correctly then it is not really something i can contribute to.
You are right, GFA says if there is a majority then UI happens. I am a democrat and will accept that decision.
But then it will be over to ROI. My community will have zero bargaining power and the challenges will be for ROI or those in power in the New Ireland (NI) - did you like what i done there) to sort out the way ahead.
You will have decisions to make ie do we bend over backwards to accommodate this unionist community now in our midst who are feeling hurt, downtrodden, defeated, dejected, without a home. or do we say sod them and allow those who are able to move across to the mainland and let the Guards police the enclaves that are left behind.
So I am not avoiding the question - its just not a question that my community will be able to contribute to other than say, I can't imagine we will be in the mood for compromise under the circumstances - we will become the crocodiles that you will have to keep feeding

jm08

downcow wrote: »

Yea, I suppose it just depends how much Irish people want Britian out of Ireland. My sense is most couldn't care less.
Most NI people are happy with status quo in UK and potentially there could be a majority gathered up for a more independent NI, but with ongoing support.
We could even potentially build in reunification in say 200 years - a bit like Hong Kong, as a sweetner to ROI.

But you are right. I wouldn't do it if I was you. I guess we are destained to remain part of UK for generations - thankfully

We'll see how many are happy with the status quo if Airbus pulls out of Northern Ireland!


The DUP are completely irresponsible. Why would you want them running the show in NI?

murphaph

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the English are prepared to get out of the EU because it costs then GB£10 billion a year, that they will not want to get out of NI that costs the GB£10 billion a year.

Dream on. When the downside of Brexit begins to bite, where will the cuts be deepest?

If they go ahead with a hard Brexit NI will be part of Ireland within 20 years, maybe a lot quicker. If they go soft and the economy recovers somewhat the status quo will prevail for many decades to come.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

If i understand your question correctly then it is not really something i can contribute to.
You are right, GFA says if there is a majority then UI happens. I am a democrat and will accept that decision.
But then it will be over to ROI. My community will have zero bargaining power and the challenges will be for ROI or those in power in the New Ireland (NI) - did you like what i done there) to sort out the way ahead.
You will have decisions to make ie do we bend over backwards to accommodate this unionist community now in our midst who are feeling hurt, downtrodden, defeated, dejected, without a home. or do we say sod them and allow those who are able to move across to the mainland and let the Guards police the enclaves that are left behind.
So I am not avoiding the question - its just not a question that my community will be able to contribute to other than say, I can't imagine we will be in the mood for compromise under the circumstances - we will become the crocodiles that you will have to keep feeding

You wouldn't have zero bargaining power. If you voted as a bloc (which would probably make no sense as unionists are diverse in nature and have differing priorities but whatever) you'd have perhaps 20% of TDs in the Dáil. Unlike in Westminster that would translate to real power and possibly being perpetual kingmakers in parliament.

Avatar MIA

downcow wrote: »

Most NI people are happy with status quo in UK ...

I'll agree with you there. There's likely even a significant portion of the NCR community that would vote to remain within the present UK (see Stockholm syndrome ). A hard Brexit would change that cosy dynamic though.

downcow wrote: »

… there could be a majority gathered up for a more independent NI, but with ongoing support.

Anything to back that up? From memory an independent NI is the least favoured option from any polling data. And if it's funded by some fairy godmother it'd hardly be very independent.

downcow

murphaph wrote: »

You wouldn't have zero bargaining power. If you voted as a bloc (which would probably make no sense as unionists are diverse in nature and have differing priorities but whatever) you'd have perhaps 20% of TDs in the Dáil. Unlike in Westminster that would translate to real power and possibly being perpetual kingmakers in parliament.

The toss up for our community might be to decide which will serve us best, being Kingmakers or Crocodiles?
You will still have the same problem though ie making sure we are happy. The repercussions of a community of £500,000+ who are operating as a block and living in pockets and enclaves feeling discriminated against will be a massive challenge for ROI authorities going forward. Hence I think you will probably decide just to keep the crocs well fed and we'll all get on fine.
This is a very different thing than dealing with the Hutch gang
I wonder if those in the South calling for a UI have actually thought that through

Dytalus

downcow wrote: »

The toss up for our community might be to decide which will serve us best, being Kingmakers or Crocodiles?
You will still have the same problem though ie making sure we are happy. The repercussions of a community of £500,000+ who are operating as a block and living in pockets and enclaves feeling discriminated against will be a massive challenge for ROI authorities going forward. Hence I think you will probably decide just to keep the crocs well fed and we'll all get on fine.
This is a very different thing than dealing with the Hutch gang
I wonder if those in the South calling for a UI have actually thought that through

I'm sure it's not your intention, but your choice of wording here is...rather threatening.

If a UI happens, and you support democracy as you say, then why wouldn't you want to try and make the best of it for yourselves? Vote in blocs, make your voices heard, make use of available opportunities? If you're just going to hold up in your own communities as 'crocodiles' and ask for special treatment (which is how I interpret your 'well-fed' bit, I could be wrong) then you're going to very quickly find the patience of the rest of the population running out.

Sympathy and understanding can only be stretched so far. I'd imagine if, post-unification, the unionist communities insisted on making martyrs of themselves you'd have a far worse time of than if you tried to make it work.

facehugger99

Avatar MIA wrote: »

I'm assuming he means €5k per worker. If it was €5k per person it'd be well over €20b per year. But, shur, that figure is just as plausible.

The true economic cost for the Republic would be much higher.

Borrowing an extra €10bn for NI's subvention would be a drag on our own economy for generations and lead to a disastrous cut in funding to capital works as well as health and education spending.

When the true costs become known - as they will prior to any Border poll - there will be a huge majority of ROI taxpayers who will reject the proposal.

Personally I don't even think it will get that far though.

Avatar MIA

facehugger99 wrote: »

Borrowing an extra €10bn for NI's subvention...

Once more with patience... What 10b?

downcow

Dytalus wrote: »

I'm sure it's not your intention, but your choice of wording here is...rather threatening.

If a UI happens, and you support democracy as you say, then why wouldn't you want to try and make the best of it for yourselves? Vote in blocs, make your voices heard, make use of available opportunities? If you're just going to hold up in your own communities as 'crocodiles' and ask for special treatment (which is how I interpret your 'well-fed' bit, I could be wrong) then you're going to very quickly find the patience of the rest of the population running out.

Sympathy and understanding can only be stretched so far. I'd imagine if, post-unification, the unionist communities insisted on making martyrs of themselves you'd have a far worse time of than if you tried to make it work.

I am trying to be real. Whether we like it or not there will be massive challenges for ROI authorities. I honestly don't see why the unionist community would be in a compromising mood and yes i do think they would be hurt, nervous and angry. I personally believe the unionist community are much more protective of their identity than the northern nationalist community.
Guards would be negotiating permission into large areas of most towns up North. I have little doubt all manifestations of our culture would increase as is normal when a community feels under siege. Band numbers, marches, bonfires would all be on the increase, and i have little doubt there would be increased sectarianism and all that might roll out from that.
The UK had a massive cheque book to feed the last set of republican crocs and I don't think the new set of loyalist crocs will be any easier fed and controlled and the ROI cheque book is a bit thinner - but i suppose EU will step in

In my opinion it would be a very silly place to take two communities that are fairly settled and currently re-learning how to live together

Avatar MIA

downcow wrote: »

I am trying to be real. Whether we like it or not there will be massive challenges for ROI authorities. I honestly don't see why the unionist community would be in a compromising mood and yes i do think they would be hurt, nervous and angry. I personally believe the unionist community are much more protective of their identity than the northern nationalist community.
Guards would be negotiating permission into large areas of most towns up North. I have little doubt all manifestations of our culture would increase as is normal when a community feels under siege. Band numbers, marches, bonfires would all be on the increase, and i have little doubt there would be increased sectarianism and all that might roll out from that.
The UK had a massive cheque book to feed the last set of republican crocs and I don't think the new set of loyalist crocs will be any easier fed and controlled and the ROI cheque book is a bit thinner - but i suppose EU will step in

In my opinion it would be a very silly place to take two communities that are fairly settled and currently re-learning how to live together

The NI violence stemmed from gerrymandering, "one man, one vote" and civil rights abuses. H&W practically being protestant only etc. No such reasons would be given to loyalists in a UI. Loyalists (Poor protestants) may benefit most.

Besides, what would they be agitating about, returning to the UK. The UK would politely tell them to PO!

facehugger99

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Once more with patience... What 10b?

Apologies - €10.8bn.


Along with a Public Sector pension liability of €98bn!

I wouldn't worry about the figures though - it'll never get that far and if it ever did, I can tell you with certainty it would be rejected by a huge majority of ROI taxpayers.


We'd rather see our money go on funding schools, hospitals and roads.

Avatar MIA

facehugger99 wrote: »

Apologies - €10.8bn.

Fantastic, that's very specific. Now, can you let us know how you came to this figure? Thanks in advance.

Chips Lovell

Westminster currently subsidises Northern Ireland to the tune of £9.3 billion (€10.8 billion ) a year.

Minor variations in the €10 billion figure are usually down to what year people cite and when the exchange rate was calcuated.

horsebox1977

The NI budget also includes the UK's military budget too - I'm not sure why that is but it is.

A more realistic figure is approx 4 to 6 billion.

http://www.paulgosling.net/2019/01/a-ten-year-plan-for-a-united-ireland/

Northern Ireland is being subsidised by the UK Treasury to the tune of £10bn or £5bn according to how the figure is calculated. (The difference is explained by whether you include NI’s share of UK-wide costs, such as debt interest and the armed forces, or only those costs that are specific to NI.)

Avatar MIA

While facehugger99 or another commentator comes back with back up for the 10/11b per annum cost to run NI - A few things to ponder.

The ROI pretty much ran a balanced budget in 2018. There's approx. 4.5m of us. In NI Public sector workers account for approx. 30% whereas in the ROI it's about 18/19%. NI's labour force is 887k (from Wiki). That's about 106k workers in the PS more that you'd expect. These would diminish over time and taken up by private sector economy.

106k workers net of tax cost would be about €2 to €2.5b per annum at it's height. How else is NI more expensive than the ROI. Have they got amazing services up there. The NHS doesn't cost more than the HSE. And with appreciably higher life expectancy in the ROI it can't be any better in reality.

So, how could NI be so much more expensive to run? Anybody? Over time a 7m economy would be more feasible than the ROI on its own.

downcow

Avatar MIA wrote: »

The NI violence stemmed from gerrymandering, "one man, one vote" and civil rights abuses. H&W practically being protestant only etc. No such reasons would be given to loyalists in a UI. Loyalists (Poor protestants) may benefit most.

Besides, what would they be agitating about, returning to the UK. The UK would politely tell them to PO!

I think you will find that to all intents and purpose those issues were dealt with by the 80s and the conflict didn't just end.
I didn't mention agitating, but if you want to call it that.
Its a bit patronising to refer to loyalists as poor protestants - In fact with phrases like that, if you were in charge it wouldn't be long till there was trouble.

Do you realise the lengths we have to go to in NI to keep the nationalists happy? Do you think your Ireland will not have to modify to keep the unionists happy?

downcow

horsebox1977 wrote: »

The NI budget also includes the UK's military budget too - I'm not sure why that is but it is.

A more realistic figure is approx 4 to 6 billion.

http://www.paulgosling.net/2019/01/a-ten-year-plan-for-a-united-ireland/

Northern Ireland is being subsidised by the UK Treasury to the tune of £10bn or £5bn according to how the figure is calculated. (The difference is explained by whether you include NI’s share of UK-wide costs, such as debt interest and the armed forces, or only those costs that are specific to NI.)

And then there is also the money that UK are paying to EU which makes its way back to NI. This is also substantial

Avatar MIA

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

Westminster currently subsidises Northern Ireland to the tune of £9.3 billion (€10.8 billion ) a year.

Minor variations in the €10 billion figure are usually down to what year people cite and when the exchange rate was calcuated.

Subsidy is your word, no?

The word normally used is subvention. That's government speak for *look over there* and is not detailed as to what makes it up. What it definitely isn't is £10b transferred from the UK government to NI to run NI.

Avatar MIA

downcow wrote: »

I think you will find that to all intents and purpose those issues were dealt with by the 80s and the conflict didn't just end.
I didn't mention agitating, but if you want to call it that.
Its a bit patronising to refer to loyalists as poor protestants - In fact with phrases like that, if you were in charge it wouldn't be long till there was trouble.

Do you realise the lengths we have to go to in NI to keep the nationalists happy? Do you think your Ireland will not have to modify to keep the unionists happy?

Once a flame is lit it can take a while to put out. Not an inch unionism hardly helped there. But a flame needs something substantial to get going.

Ah, who are you talking to? Loyalism is synonymous with working class. Stop with the strawman.

Most unionists would get on with it.

Chips Lovell

horsebox1977 wrote: »

The NI budget also includes the UK's military budget too - I'm not sure why that is but it is.

A more realistic figure is approx 4 to 6 billion.

UK defence spending is £35 billion per annum. On a per capita basis, Northern Ireland would account for around £980 million of that.

We definitely don't spend as much as the UK on defence. Our entire defence budget is €900 million per annum. So yeah, definitely the military bill for Northern Ireland would decrease, but not by several billion.

Peregrinus

You're looking at this just in terms of expenditures, lads, but it's more complicated than that. The subvention is the difference between expeditures in, or attributed to, NI and revenue collected in NI. Revenue collected in NI is lower than it might be because the economy is persistently sluggish, wage rates are not great and consumer confidence is limited. To what extent is this attributable to NI being a marginal part of the UK, remote (and not just physically remote) from the metropolis? To what extent is it the result of NI being subject to UK-wide policies which are not really framed with the needs and circumstances of NI in mind? And to what extent might it be changed if partition is ended, and NI society and economy reorients itself towards integration with the rest of Ireland?

I don't know the answers to these questions but it seems to me that they need to be considered. The discussion so far has simply treated the current subvention to NI as an immutable given, a law of nature, which has nothing to do with the history, situation and circumstances of NI and won't be affected by even radical changes to them. That's absurd.

The economy of NI has persistently underperformed that of the Republic for decades now. We're long past the point where this can be attributed to the decline of the shipbuilding and linen industries. It's at least plausible, to put it no higher, that this underperformance is to a material degree atrributable to partition, and the political problems resulting from it, and therefore that an end to partition would open up the possibility of a significant change to NI's requirement for a subvention. A discussion of the financial implications of reunification which doesn't even consider this is superficial and simplistic.

jm08

downcow wrote: »

Do you realise the lengths we have to go to in NI to keep the nationalists happy? Do you think your Ireland will not have to modify to keep the unionists happy?

I'd be interested in hearing what these 'lengths' are.


The best thing that Ireland could do is provide good education and well paying jobs.



(I saw last week where the CEO of Northern Ireland Invest resigned which he had been in charge of for the last 10 years). I wasn't impressed with his cv (a former policy advisor to the DUP!). That reeks of jobs for the boys and that will need to stop.

facehugger99

The increased security spending is likely to be eye-wateringly high to deal with dissident loyalist terrorists.

Not to mention the effect on our economy of a few well-placed bombs in the IFSC or GCD.

We are already indebted up to the eye-balls.

We will struggle to pay the pensions of our existing PS. We will not take on a 'workforce' made up of 30% PS.

Avatar MIA

facehugger99 wrote: »

Not to mention the effect on our economy of a few well-placed bombs in the IFSC or GCD.

So, your worst fear has come through a UI is agreed.

Then the above bombs to off, what then?