Border Poll discussion

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

Living your life in the past won't bring a UI-neither will snide comments.
There's nothing wrong with being patriotic but extreme views unsettle ordinary people and cause entrenchment.

I'm not living in the past and I certainly don't want to go back there.


My point about the Stock Exchange is that the threat to the City is what got the British Government talking to the Provos, not loyalists killing catholics in Northern Ireland as has been claimed. The Canary Wharf bombing in 1996 was a reminder to the British Government ''That they had not gone away''.

Havockk

RobMc59 wrote: »

The bombing campaign in Britain towards the end was a serious miscalculation

That was the only genius move the IRA ever made. They ****ed about killing and bombing around for 30 odd years before they had the bright idea of attacking London's financial district. It's no coincidence that within 2 years we had the GFA signed sealed and delivered.

facehugger99

Avatar MIA wrote: »

any threat or act of loyalism in the run up to a UI would likewise be ineffective.

I think it would may a fair few people in the Republic reconsider whether unification was worth the hassle.

The ROI electorate has always been very soft on unification. It's not something that forms part of the national conversation. We're a bit like Saint Augustine - Lord, make us unified - but not yet.

From what I can see, other than the odd SF politician every few months and about 4 posters on Boards, it's never really mentioned at all in day to day life.

Once the Brexit question is resolved, it'll be quietly popped to the back-burner again, as has always been the case.

Havockk

facehugger99 wrote: »

I think it would may a fair few people in the Republic reconsider whether unification was worth the hassle.

The ROI electorate has always been very soft on unification. It's not something that forms part of the national conversation. We're a bit like Saint Augustine - Lord, make us unified - but not yet.

From what I can see, other than the odd SF politician every few months and about 4 posters on Boards, it's never really mentioned at all in day to day life.

Once the Brexit question is resolved, it'll be quietly popped to the back-burner again, as has always been the case.

You have literally no clue as to what is happening in the minds of nationalists in the North right now. Even if brexit is resolved, nothing will change with this new push to unification. The North is going to take another hit for even in the 'best of both worlds' scenario one of those worlds, the UK is going to go down the drain anyway. So literally the best we can hope for is to 'stay the same' as now... in which case, we already know we are a hell of a lot worse off.

facehugger99

Havockk wrote: »

You have literally no clue as to what is happening in the minds of nationalists in the North right now. Even if brexit is resolved, nothing will change with this new push to unification. The North is going to take another hit for even in the 'best of both worlds' scenario one of those worlds, the UK is going to go down the drain anyway. So literally the best we can hope for is to 'stay the same' as now... in which case, we already know we are a hell of a lot worse off.

Nor do I care.

It's an entirely different jurisdiction.

I'm only concerned about the Republic of Ireland.

Havockk

facehugger99 wrote: »

Nor do I care.

It's an entirely different jurisdiction.

I'm only concerned about the Republic of Ireland.

If you don't care it doesn't make much sense to be in debating about it in the border poll thread you'll not mind me pointing out so.

facehugger99

Havockk wrote: »

If you don't care it doesn't make much sense to be in debating about it in the border poll thread you'll not mind me pointing out so.

Are you under the impression that a unification vote will only be carried out in the North?

Havockk

facehugger99 wrote: »

Are you under the impression that a unification vote will only be carried out in the North?

No, I'm under no illusions but all indications and polling show that a healthy majority in the South will vote for unification. I don't have to sway you, it's unnecessary.

jm08

facehugger99 wrote: »

Are you under the impression that a unification vote will only be carried out in the North?

Are you aware of the latest opinion polls in the republic?

Research carried out by Amch on behalf of the Claire Byrne Live show found that 86% of people wanted to see a 32 county republic rather than the 14% who wanted a hard border.


Meanwhile, when asked “Are you in favour of a united Ireland”, 54% of people said yes, 21% said no while 25% said they did not know.
Over 1,000 people from the Republic of Ireland were surveyed for both polls.

https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-poll-4-4464297-Jan2019/


The ''nos'' have a lot of ground to make up.

facehugger99

Havockk wrote: »

No, I'm under no illusions but all indications and polling show that a healthy majority in the South will vote for unification. I don't have to sway you, it's unnecessary.

Honestly, the question of you 'swaying' me is immaterial - you seemed confused that I was commenting in a thread about a border poll when I don't care about norther nationalist opinion - I hope that I've been able to explain that one to you.

As to the supposed slam-dunk of the ROI voting for it - the question of cost has never been fully factored in to such poll questions and when it has, even obliquely, there's a huge drop off in support.

Do you want Unification - Sure, OK.

Do you want to pay €10bn a year for it? - Ahh no, you're grand thanks.

BonnieSituation

facehugger99 wrote: »

Honestly, the question of you 'swaying' me is immaterial - you seemed confused that I was commenting in a thread about a border poll when I don't care about norther nationalist opinion - I hope that I've been able to explain that one to you.

As to the supposed slam-dunk of the ROI voting for it - the question of cost has never been fully factored in to such poll questions and when it has, even obliquely, there's a huge drop off in support.

Do you want Unification - Sure, OK.

Do you want to pay €10bn a year for it? - Ahh no, you're grand thanks.

My God you are incessant I'll give you that.

Sure we can all play that game:

Do you want Unification - Sure, OK.

Do you want to pay €1bn a year for it? - Sure thing boss.

---

Any chance you can explain how you think that that 10bn from the Brits will just be swapped for 10bn from Ireland?

You've been asked repeatedly and you've cime up with nothing outside of "that's what the subvention is, so that's what the subvention will be..."

facehugger99

BonnieSituation wrote: »

My God you are incessant I'll give you that.

Sure we can all play that game:

Do you want Unification - Sure, OK.

Do you want to pay €1bn a year for it? - Sure thing boss.

---

Any chance you can explain how you think that that 10bn from the Brits will just be swapped for 10bn from Ireland?

You've been asked repeatedly and you've cime up with nothing outside of "that's what the subvention is, so that's what the subvention will be..."

The €10bn figure is very conservative. It doesn't take account of the drag to the economy in paying billions to NI public servants - money that could be used to boost productivity in the Republic through much need infrastructural investments.

Nor does it take account of funding a €98bn public servant pension liability.

Nor does it take account of increased security costs and loss of FDIs should some head-the-balls take a leaf out of the IRA playbook.

In my view €10bn doesn't even come close to the true cost and once that cost is known, no Irish citizen will mortgage his children and grandchildren's future on the basis of some outdated nationalist pipe dream.

jm08

facehugger99 wrote: »

Nor does it take account of funding a €98bn public servant pension liability.

Its €114 bn over 70 years and will be 1.5% of GDP by 2040 (its now 1.2%, but will reduce to 0.9% by 2060).

https://www.thejournal.ie/public-service-liability-pension-3760788-Dec2017/

I don't think bombing Bombardier (an FDI company) will go down well in East Belfast!

downcow

jm08 wrote: »

I'm not living in the past and I certainly don't want to go back there.


My point about the Stock Exchange is that the threat to the City is what got the British Government talking to the Provos, not loyalists killing catholics in Northern Ireland as has been claimed. The Canary Wharf bombing in 1996 was a reminder to the British Government ''That they had not gone away''.

HMG were talking to the IRA from the beginning of the troubles. It didnt take bombs in the 90s to achieve that.

I did not claim loyalists killing catholics got hmg talking to provos. I said it brought serious pressure on the IRA from within their own community. I remember clearly how vast numbers of cathiolics had stopped going out to pubs etc because they were afraid of the despicable pub shootings, whereas Prods were getting on with their social lives fairly unhindered. There was a IRA ceasefire within a year

BonnieSituation

facehugger99 wrote: »

The €10bn figure is very conservative. It doesn't take account of the drag to the economy in paying billions to NI public servants - money that could be used to boost productivity {vague} in the Republic through much need infrastructural investments {vague}.

It's very conservative says who? You?

Earlier in the thread someone mentioned that the North's defence force proportion is approx 988m. That no longer will have to be paid. So straight away we've brought down, to an even more conservative 9bn.

or does it take account of funding a €98bn public servant pension liability.

Do you know how pension liabilities work?
We are literally not gonna be on the hook for that save some agreement with Britain. Why keep saying we are. It's almost like you're being disingenuous with your "argument".

Nor does it take account of increased security costs and loss of FDIs should some head-the-balls take a leaf out of the IRA playbook.

Right, so now we have to assume costs for terrorist attacks? Isn't that why police forces have budgets?

You vastly over estimate loyalist capabilities and support. You also make out that in your fantasy world where both north and south have voted to reunify that loyalists would have any support given the clear democratic will of both jurisdictions.

What FDI would be lost? If anything FDI would receive a boost, suddenly the island is a good news story with an extra 1.8m people within its jurisdiction.

In my view €10bn doesn't even come close to the true cost and once that cost is known, no Irish citizen will mortgage his children and grandchildren's future on the basis of some outdated nationalist pipe dream.

In your view... And when we know the true cost...

I mean, you couldn't make it up!

----

Everyone of your assertions seems to only work as a zero sum game where the world is a vacuum. Thankfully it isn't.

You seem to think that no body works in the north; that there's no tax take at all to be had.

Do you really think that on unification that there's just gonna be an Extra 1.8m dole spongers or public sector workers?

---

I'll posit this, seeing as you're obsessed with cost (as opposed to value, but that's another argument), if reunification cost absolutely nothing would that make you vote for it?

jmayo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's very conservative says who? You?

Earlier in the thread someone mentioned that the North's defence force proportion is approx 988m. That no longer will have to be paid. So straight away we've brought down, to an even more conservative 9bn.

What about the increased security costs for the south ?

What about the necessary ramp up in our military numbers and spending which will undoubtedly be needed since we are taking on extra territory, a territory which historically has had terrorists and unrest ?

Maybe the Brits will leave us a load of kit.:rolleyes:

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Do you know how pension liabilities work?
We are literally not gonna be on the hook for that save some agreement with Britain. Why keep saying we are. It's almost like you're being disingenuous with your "argument".

Ah so the Brits will gladly keep paying the pensions.
Any chance you could get that in writing for us ?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Right, so now we have to assume costs for terrorist attacks? Isn't that why police forces have budgets?

You vastly over estimate loyalist capabilities and support. You also make out that in your fantasy world where both north and south have voted to reunify that loyalists would have any support given the clear democratic will of both jurisdictions.

Our police force haven't the resources to really fight a few gangs never mind a possible hostile community that could resort to violence and terrorism.
Even if no terrorism, imagine the cost of policing all those parades.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What FDI would be lost? If anything FDI would receive a boost, suddenly the island is a good news story with an extra 1.8m people within its jurisdiction.

Yeah because the FDIs site in Ireland for the Irish market.

Fecks sake I hope you don't believe that shyte. :rolleyes:

BonnieSituation wrote: »

...
You seem to think that no body works in the north; that there's no tax take at all to be had.

Do you really think that on unification that there's just gonna be an Extra 1.8m dole spongers or public sector workers?

Can you give us some examples of what economic benefits NI will bring to the rest of this island and the economy of the Republic ?

downcow

jmayo wrote: »

What about the increased security costs for the south ?

What about the necessary ramp up in our military numbers and spending which will undoubtedly be needed since we are taking on extra territory, a territory which historically has had terrorists and unrest ?

Maybe the Brits will leave us a load of kit.:rolleyes:


Our police force haven't the resources to really fight a few gangs never mind a possible hostile community that could resort to violence and terrorism.
Even if no terrorism, imagine the cost of policing all those parades.

?

That all makes sense.
tbh, even in the best case scenario, I can't see the Guards entering too many loyalist areas in soft skinned cars. A simple buglary will require a significant force in landrovers to visit the householder - and the danger is that is then seen as oppressive and the viscous circle continues. And can you imagine the Guards trying to police a very contentious parade? - make sure you have a very fat cheque book

jm08

downcow wrote: »

HMG were talking to the IRA from the beginning of the troubles. It didnt take bombs in the 90s to achieve that.

I'm well aware that there was plenty of talking going on, which went no where until the bombing of the Stock Exchange.

I did not claim loyalists killing catholics got hmg talking to provos. I said it brought serious pressure on the IRA from within their own community. I remember clearly how vast numbers of cathiolics had stopped going out to pubs etc because they were afraid of the despicable pub shootings, whereas Prods were getting on with their social lives fairly unhindered. There was a IRA ceasefire within a year

The Provos had complete control of their own areas and were happy to use any method such as punishment beatings, kneecapping ect. to maintain that control. Lack of a social life were the least of nationalist's troubles. The GAA was far more central to nationalists social lives than boozing in the local pub anyway.

facehugger99

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's very conservative says who? You?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

In your view... And when we know the true cost...

I mean, you couldn't make it up!

Listen, I can save you a bit of time in future responses.

Going forward you can assume that any posts I make are my opinion on the matter.

Your own posts are remarkably short on any hard figures.

It'll all become a lot clearer if the issue ever threatens to go to a poll, but we're many years, even decades away from any serious chance of that.

It would be my own hope that this 18th century focus on nationalistic borders will have been consigned to the dustbin of history by then anyway,

blanch152

jmayo wrote: »

What about the increased security costs for the south ?

What about the necessary ramp up in our military numbers and spending which will undoubtedly be needed since we are taking on extra territory, a territory which historically has had terrorists and unrest ?

Maybe the Brits will leave us a load of kit.:rolleyes:



Ah so the Brits will gladly keep paying the pensions.
Any chance you could get that in writing for us ?



Our police force haven't the resources to really fight a few gangs never mind a possible hostile community that could resort to violence and terrorism.
Even if no terrorism, imagine the cost of policing all those parades.



Yeah because the FDIs site in Ireland for the Irish market.

Fecks sake I hope you don't believe that shyte. :rolleyes:



Can you give us some examples of what economic benefits NI will bring to the rest of this island and the economy of the Republic ?

The whole unity debate echoes the Brexit one.

There is a very strong element that Brexit/Unity will bring loads of intangible benefits and that if you question assumptions and ask how we will pay for the subsidy/deal with the unrest/harmonise social welfare and public pay, that you are somehow negative or a partitionist (A remoaner if you like) and that the fantasy of a land of milk of honey should automatically override any practical concerns.

RobMc59

jm08 wrote: »

I'm well aware that there was plenty of talking going on, which went no where until the bombing of the Stock Exchange.





The Provos had complete control of their own areas and were happy to use any method such as punishment beatings, kneecapping ect. to maintain that control. Lack of a social life were the least of nationalist's troubles. The GAA was far more central to nationalists social lives than boozing in the local pub anyway.

I don`t see how your posts would persuade anyone to have a sudden epiphany and wish for a NI ,living alongside all the wonderful people you`re describing

BonnieSituation

facehugger99 wrote: »

Listen, I can save you a bit of time in future responses.

Going forward you can assume that any posts I make are my opinion on the matter.

Your own posts are remarkably short on any hard figures.

It'll all become a lot clearer if the issue ever threatens to go to a poll, but we're many years, even decades away from any serious chance of that.

It would be my own hope that this 18th century focus on nationalistic borders will have been consigned to the dustbin of history by then anyway,

You're the one that is obsessed with cost though and who has page after page continued to roll out the same unsubstantiated nonsense. I'm making no claims of cost at all outside of what might have been stated by others on the thread like my statement above re the North's military share. I'm just trying to understand your position where society's cost is all that matters.

So I'll ask again, if it cost nothing would you still vote for reunification?

jm08

jmayo wrote: »

What about the increased security costs for the south ?

What about the necessary ramp up in our military numbers and spending which will undoubtedly be needed since we are taking on extra territory, a territory which historically has had terrorists and unrest ?

Maybe the Brits will leave us a load of kit.:rolleyes:

Where are the PSNI (and its kit) going?

Ah so the Brits will gladly keep paying the pensions.
Any chance you could get that in writing for us ?

They might not do it gladly, but I'm fairly sure that Arlene and Co. will make sure they get their British pensions.

Our police force haven't the resources to really fight a few gangs never mind a possible hostile community that could resort to violence and terrorism.
Even if no terrorism, imagine the cost of policing all those parades.

PSNI are well probably the most highly trained anti-terrorism police force in the world. And they know who they are.

Yeah because the FDIs site in Ireland for the Irish market.

Fecks sake I hope you don't believe that shyte. :rolleyes:

Some of the reasons why FDI's locate to Ireland are a) English speaking, b) young, educated workforce, c) CT rate. As it is, approx. 18% of the Republic's workforce are imported!, who all need to be housed and schools built for their children. FDI's can get all of those things in NI now. Take Boston Scientif - they have 3 plants in Ireland (Galway, Cork & Clonmel). If they want to expand, they would likely be attracted to siting their new plant (with the same conditions like tax etc), in the North East where there is an available workforce.

Can you give us some examples of what economic benefits NI will bring to the rest of this island and the economy of the Republic ?

A country's wealth is its people. With its traditional engineering history, it would complement the rest of the island.


Just think of the Titanic Quarter in Belfast - it was transformed by Harcourt Development into a thriving prosperous area that is bringing money into Belfast and no doubt into the developers pockets (and who pay their CT in the ROI).

jm08

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don`t see how your posts would persuade anyone to have a sudden epiphany and wish for a NI ,living alongside all the wonderful people you`re describing

Some will never be persuaded. This is what Joe Brolly had to say about it:

I thought of that exchange earlier last week when Jarlath Burns described the national anthem and the tricolour as "divisive" and said he would support giving them up at GAA games if it would help to persuade some Unionists to support us. "It wouldn't cost me a thought," he said. "If I thought for a moment that Ulster Unionist MLA Tom Elliott would become our greatest fan, I would get rid of them surely." It is worth reminding ourselves that Tom is the man who proudly boasted at his party conference in 2010 that he would "never go to a GAA game or a gay march."
The reality is that no appeasement would satisfy the Tom Elliotts of this world. The whole point of a civilised society is to respect difference, not abandon what we are in order to satisfy extremists. The world is awash with political correctness. Its main function is to make us feel embarrassed about who we are and what we think, and to create a world that is entirely bland.

https://www.independent.ie/sport/gaelic-games/joe-brolly-how-i-faced-down-ira-man-who-branded-me-a-traitor-31580075.html


That article is well worth a read.

jmayo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You're the one that is obsessed with cost though and who has page after page continued to roll out the same unsubstantiated nonsense.

As opposed to you that totally dismisses the huge economic costs of running NI.

The day to day running costs are very well substantiated whereas your hair brained ideas are well just your hair brained ideas.
Oh and probably a huge chunk of sinn feins. :rolleyes:

Actually blanch152 hit the nail on the head, your argument is a carbon copy of the hard-line Brexiteers.
You might as well just use the slogan "Just believe".

FrancieBrady

jmayo wrote: »

As opposed to you that totally dismisses the huge economic costs of running NI.

The day to day running costs are very well substantiated whereas your hair brained ideas are well just your hair brained ideas.
Oh and probably a huge chunk of sinn feins. :rolleyes:

Actually blanch152 hit the nail on the head, your argument is a carbon copy of the hard-line Brexiteers.
You might as well just use the slogan "Just believe".

No, the similarity to Brexit is those who propose to keep running northern Ireland at a massive deficit while claiming it is an 'upland pasture'.

Recognise any of those type of people on this very thread?

Can you break down for us exactly what the 9-10-11-12 billion is made up of?

Havockk

jmayo wrote: »

As opposed to you that totally dismisses the huge economic costs of running NI.

The day to day running costs are very well substantiated whereas your hair brained ideas are well just your hair brained ideas.
Oh and probably a huge chunk of sinn feins. :rolleyes:

Actually blanch152 hit the nail on the head, your argument is a carbon copy of the hard-line Brexiteers.
You might as well just use the slogan "Just believe".

It might be in response to brexit, but it is certainly not 'like' brexit.

Lads, it's clear you are unhappy at the prospect. You will have to get over it though, for it's a debate that's going to be had one way or another.

facehugger99

BonnieSituation wrote: »

So I'll ask again, if it cost nothing would you still vote for reunification?

I don't remember you asking before tbh - Admittedly I don't slavishly read every post.

Sure, if it imposed no cost on us and had no other negative political or societal consequences - why not.

I'm pretty sure that even the most fervent believers in the money-trees aren't claiming it would cost nothing, so I fail to see the relevance of the question.

jmayo

jm08 wrote: »

Where are the PSNI (and its kit) going?

And remind us again who will pay the salaries of all those PSNI officers ?

Remind us again who is going to have to pay for all the new Land Rovers with armour plating ?
Or will you just run the old inherited ones into the ground. :rolleyes:

Who is the ones paying for the new firearms and the bullets used in training a highly armed police force ?

jm08 wrote: »

They might not do it gladly, but I'm fairly sure that Arlene and Co. will make sure they get their British pensions.

Shure isn't Arlene going to leave.

jm08 wrote: »

PSNI are well probably the most highly trained anti-terrorism police force in the world. And they know who they are.

Yes, but who will pay their wages ?
Who will pay for all the special surveillance ?

jm08 wrote: »

Some of the reasons why FDI's locate to Ireland are a) English speaking, b) young, educated workforce, c) CT rate. As it is, approx. 18% of the Republic's workforce are imported!, who all need to be housed and schools built for their children. FDI's can get all of those things in NI now. Take Boston Scientif - they have 3 plants in Ireland (Galway, Cork & Clonmel). If they want to expand, they would likely be attracted to siting their new plant (with the same conditions like tax etc), in the North East where there is an available workforce.

A country's wealth is its people. With its traditional engineering history, it would complement the rest of the island.

Fook sake the delusion.
NI's industrial past is exactly that, the past.
Harry Ferguson left long ago.

jm08 wrote: »

Just think of the Titanic Quarter in Belfast - it was transformed by Harcourt Development into a thriving prosperous area that is bringing money into Belfast and no doubt into the developers pockets (and who pay their CT in the ROI).

Maybe they can open a new shipyard to compete with the Koreans and build another super ship that famously sinks.
Problem solved. :rolleyes:

James Brown

jmayo wrote: »

As opposed to you that totally dismisses the huge economic costs of running NI.

The day to day running costs are very well substantiated whereas your hair brained ideas are well just your hair brained ideas.
Oh and probably a huge chunk of sinn feins. :rolleyes:

Actually blanch152 hit the nail on the head, your argument is a carbon copy of the hard-line Brexiteers.
You might as well just use the slogan "Just believe".

Saying we don't know what the costs might be isn't ignoring them. Neither is not accepting at best hypothetical costs being sold as ball park fact.
I think saying we can't afford it with no hard facts or figures is just burying your head in the sand.

It's a mater of looking at what might happen and preparing as best we can. The only relation I can see with hard line brexiteers is those saying 'It'll never happen so why bother talking about it'. Very close to the remainers attitude too.